Contending in 2018

You don’t deliver it to the guy that’s part of the problem, you get it into the hands of he guy with power for change.

NYCFC isn't run like the USMNT. The President, Patricof, doesn't have control of the sporting side of the business. Patricof can't fire Reyna. You have to send this to either Ferran Soriano or Khaldoon Al Mubarak.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kjbert
NYCFC isn't run like the USMNT. The President, Patricof, doesn't have control of the sporting side of the business. Patricof can't fire Reyna. You have to send this to either Ferran Soriano or Khaldoon Al Mubarak.
Come on Lion, you're really missing the point. Patricof doesn't have to fire Reyna, he just has to put the info in the right person's hands. And Mark actually knows JP and has an ongoing dialog with him, albeit more few & far between over regular, but a relationship none-the-less.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kjbert
Come on Lion, you're really missing the point. Patricof doesn't have to fire Reyna, he just has to put the info in the right person's hands. And Mark actually knows JP and has an ongoing dialog with him, albeit more few & far between over regular, but a relationship none-the-less.

Then honestly, I should print this out and hand it to him at the game on Sunday directly.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kjbert
So. You know me. I started this last night.
I'm started quantifying our offensive production beyond Villa. I know many players do important things that don't result in goals or assists. I try not to be the guy whose answer to my team's woes is "We need more people who score goals. All the goallzz!" But damn, we need more people who score or create goals.

Here are the top 5 goal scorers for every East playoff team, plus Portland and Seattle. The first line is the team name and its total goals for the season. Below that the columns go Player|Goals|Pct. of Team Goals|Assists. Then I added salary info for selected individuals. I left the labels off to save space:

View attachment 7715 View attachment 7716
Where to begin. First some stuff not in these charts.
  • Our second highest goal scorer Harrison scored 7 of his 10 in the first half of the season.
  • Wallace scored all of his 4 by Game 13. Yes, our 4th highest goal scorer was goalless over the last 21 games.
Now let's compare:
  • With 5, 4 and 3 goals our 3rd, 4th and 5th best goal scorers compare mostly to Chicago and the Red Bulls. With everyone else there is a clear gap.
  • With 10 goals our second best goal scorer is even with Portland and behind everyone else.
  • We are the only team besides Chicago in this group without a double digit assist generator, though 9 and 9 from Villa and Maxi compare favorably to most teams' top 2.
  • Remember that on 2 metrics Chicago is one of the few teams we compare favorably with and they are eliminated.
To make it clearer, the next tables show (1) the ranking of the same teams by how many goals their 3-5 top scorers made, then (2) the ranking of the same teams by how many goals their 2-5 top scorers made. NYC comes in next-to-last and dead-last respectively. The last column in each chart is what percentage of each team's goals that group generated:
View attachment 7717
Again, I love the guys who do the work that don't make the scoring stats, but somebody does have to score the freaking goals. And we don't have those guys beyond Villa.
Let's look at previous editions of NYCFC. This is depressing.
View attachment 7718

  • Our total goals this year are down by 6 from 2016. The difference between a half season of Lampard and his DP replacement is a loss of 7.
  • I included Pirlo in 2016 just to show he is our only double digit assist maker in 3 years.
  • 2017 McNamara is 2015 Ballouchy.
  • 2017 Moralez is 2015 McNamara with more assists. Significantly more assists, but still. Both were the 3rd highest goal scorer with 5 goals. Maxi makes 10 times what TMac makes in 2017.
  • With 3 goals, McNamara should not be in the 2017 top 5, but that's not his fault. The problem is we don't actually have 5 better goal scorers than him. Plus, he only played 53% of the team's minutes. How do we not have 5 higher goal scorers than a guy who played barely more than half the time?
  • Shelton 2016 was a fluke or he regressed horribly. Take your pick.
  • Who did Reyna and Vieira think would replace Lampard's goals in 2017? Harrison? Moralez? Remember how much the team improved the second half of 2016 after Frank and Jack showed up? First half of 2016 27 goals. Second half 35. NYCFC needed that production.
  • Jack played 21 games in 2016 and had 4 goals and 7 assists. The latter let Shelton edge him slightly which is why he's not on the list. Jack played 21 games. Projected to 34 games you get 6.5 goals and 11.3 assists. He outperformed those projections on goals and under on assists. I can live with that type of development. He also came nowhere near to being a goal replacement for Lampard and it was crazy to think he would be. But if he was not supposed to do it, then who?
  • Project Frank's stats to 34 games and you get 21.5 goals and 5.4 assists. Project to the 29 games Maxi played and it comes to 18.3 and 4.6. Instead we got Maxi with 5 and 9.
  • Maxi did not have an off year. Here are his stats from whoscored. I don't know why the 2017 numbers differ from MLS but this is what we have:
View attachment 7719

  • Maxi 2017 is exactly Maxi every other year. Actually better than some. There's no reason to expect a jump up next year.
  • Again. Maxi does lots of great things that don't get him a goal or an assist, but he cannot be our 3rd highest goal scorer and 3rd highest paid player.
  • Can Jack improve, so he gets 7 goals in both halves of the season, assuming he stays? Maybe. I can't count on it.
  • Maxi was a disastrous DP signing. Maybe he could have worked if we didn't already have a DP who scored 1 goal in his only full season of contributions to us and was about to become fully useless. But a DP like Maxi is a luxury at best if you are already stacked with goal producers. As we are not.Maxi gives us half of what Vazquez creates for 3 times the price and a DP slot. Meram, Higuain, Villalba, Asad, Royer, Blanco all created more goals for less. Hell, Roldan is competitive at about 6% of the salary and no DP slot.
  • Maxi can be a great contributing player on a team without MLS salary limits. Or maybe he can be like Bradley, a DP on a team with 2 DP scorers and a TAM who also produces. I don't know what the hell he is doing here at this cost with this roster.
What do we do now?
  • We're not cutting Maxi. On top of what I wrote a few days ago about how it will hurt the team's credibility, I have no reason to think the club is willing to eat $2 million.
  • Our Pirlo replacement has to be a goal producer. I have no interest right now in a defensive DP, or some guy who is great at starting a buildup, or goes box to box but doesn't score, or anything like that. This is even more true because Villa turns 36 next month and we have no idea when he will start to fade. I think one more year of excellence is likely, but far from a given. If he does fade even a shade next year and NYCFC does not get a true goal scorer, the team is toast.
  • Do something with TAM. Do we even have a TAM player? After the DPs the highest paid player on our 2017 list is Mix at $770k and he doesn't count. The next highest is Chanot at $383k. Where is our Vazquez for $700k? What are we doing with it? Why are buying down nobody?
  • Maybe try playing Lewis?
  • The only reason I wouldn't can Reyna is the hope we sign his kid in the next 12 months.

I think the expectations were that Maxi would be the assist engine and Wallace/Harrison would carry the additional scoring load. Your numbers prove Maxi clearly under preformed but I do think his assist numbers are lower than he deserves based on the limitations of every player other than Villa to convert the chances Maxi created.

I know his age, potential and endearing personality make it rare for people to question him but a good deal of this should fall on Harrison. Personally I think his current game is too one dimensional and the league has figured him out. Every move ends with him trying to cut in on that left foot. Unless he plans to perfect that to arjen robben type levels he needs to develop a few more attacking approaches.
 
I think the expectations were that Maxi would be the assist engine and Wallace/Harrison would carry the additional scoring load. Your numbers prove Maxi clearly under preformed but I do think his assist numbers are lower than he deserves based on the limitations of every player other than Villa to convert the chances Maxi created.

I know his age, potential and endearing personality make it rare for people to question him but a good deal of this should fall on Harrison. Personally I think his current game is too one dimensional and the league has figured him out. Every move ends with him trying to cut in on that left foot. Unless he plans to perfect that to arjen robben type levels he needs to develop a few more attacking approaches.

Going further with the Harrison thought so many of his attacks in the second half ended in his shot being blocked easily resulting in no chance created or worse his pocket getting picked resulting in a counter going the other way. It just happened way too often for it to be a coincidence. Every LB in the league knows exactly what he plans to do the moment he takes that first dribble towards them. Maybe that highlight from last season when he cut in and put the defender on the ground and scored that got played in about 10,000 mls highlight packages was not the best situation for him.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Paul and mgarbowski
So, couple of additional thoughts on this.

NYCFC's defense has improved immensely this year. A lot of that can likely be attributed to better defensive players, such as Callens and Johnson. But is the team less aggressive then last year? White was our primary RB for most of the season this year. He is a better defender then RJ, but doesn't often get involved going forward. Mata was also a big part of the offense, and his replacement Sweat did a serviceable-to-good job, but I think Mata is still better.

I also think part of the problem is how much our offense goes through Villa. Meaning how often players try to force feed the ball to Villa even though he is double teamed, or players unwillingness to shot and instead they pass it to Villa. Is this a team strategy from PV, is it Villa demanding the ball all the time, is it a lack of confidence from other players?
 
Going further with the Harrison thought so many of his attacks in the second half ended in his shot being blocked easily resulting in no chance created or worse his pocket getting picked resulting in a counter going the other way. It just happened way too often for it to be a coincidence. Every LB in the league knows exactly what he plans to do the moment he takes that first dribble towards them. Maybe that highlight from last season when he cut in and put the defender on the ground and scored that got played in about 10,000 mls highlight packages was not the best situation for him.
I’m sure some left backs have figured Harrison out, but I think he’s limited with what he can do because of the team’s setup. There’s no target forward for him to cross to. Wallace isn’t really a viable target either, although two of Wallace’s goals did come from rebounds of Harrison’s shots off the post. If Jack doesn’t take a shot himself off the dribble, his only option is to pass it back to the middle on the ground to usually Villa who has run into the space at the top of the box. Rarely does anybody crash the goalmouth for Jack to center a hard/low shot. Rarely is there a midfielder running into the box. There just aren’t a lot of options for Jack to work with beside taking his guy on 1v1.
 
Ok so off the books are:

1. Lurch
2. Rawls
3. Brilliant
4. White
5. Mataritta (is that true?)
6. Sweat
7. Allen
8. Awuah (true?)
9. Pirlo
10. Mikey
11. Yangel (true?)
12. Sands
13. Camargo
14. Sterzer
15. Wallace
16. Tummy
17. Shelton
18. Lewis (true?)
19. Okoli


Idk, I don’t think this is very accurate. I’m pretty sure we have Mata for 1 more year. Yangel is a loan, but signed for longer. Lewis and Awuah didn’t get 1 year rookie contracts.

If it’s true m, it explains the raises for tummy, Shelton, lurch. Why not give them the extra space under the cap we had leftover before the season starts? It’s their last year. If they perform, it’s goodwill to re-signing them. If not, we didn’t lose anything but money.
Gen Addidas contracts are generally 3 + 2 years of team options so I would say not really reliable.
 
So I'm just going to assume that we're gone for right now. Instead of being gloom let's look at what we want to do to fix this team and get ready for next year. My list of priorities is:
1. Sell Maxi
2. Sign Macnelly Torres (I know a lot of people here are turned off by his age but this guy is special trust me. We just need to make sure not to make his contract too long)
3. DP striker- Villa's natural position is having a player to play off of him and as evident today we need more goalscoring threats
4. Sign a fucking right back
5. Dump the trash- This means the TMacs and the Sheltons. I don't want them near this team again.
6. Bring in some talented MLS veterans- I know this didn't work out so great with Wallace but with Mac and Shelton hopefully gone we'll need some depth who know the league
7. Centreback depth- Our only available centreback left is Brillant nuf said
8. Let Vieira know he's on the hot seat.
There is a lot of shit that I disagree with here. Mostly, because it’s wrong.

Namely, 1,2,3,4,6,7.

So well done on 5 & 8.
 
I personally think we need to decide HOW we want to play. And I don't mean it in the touchy-feely terms of "philosophy" or "spirit" but rather structurally. I think we're probably the only MLS team that doesn't have a target ST. If we review all of Villa's goals for us, he rarely receives an assist in the box and fires the last shot. He quite frequently receives it outside the box and creates the space by himself, or receives it as the last pass of a pretty elaborate sequence were he has already had touches. He's an orchestrator as much as a finisher. So, should we get him an elite 9, and have him play Giovinco to an Altidore? That's an option. Or should we replace Wallace with a DP true winger who can dribble, create his own shot, and drag defenders wide to open up space for Villa and continue playing without an ST? If Mata is not that winger, and he's no longer a fullback for PV, do we keep him? Or should he move back to fullback? And supercharge our left offense with Mata at fullback, and an elite guy instead of Rodney? Or should we switch Jack to the left, start Lewis on right, and get a new AM? etc etc etc
Dude, I’ve been in this a while. We need a Firmino type who can play across the front 4 and stick it in the net. And he’ll be adjusted to replace Villa as the bell cow.

We also need to give up this stupid nominal 4-3-3. It’s shit. Always is for us because we don’t have the players. When we look good in it, it’s because we aren’t actually playing a 433.
 
All of that said, a DP #10 in MLS shouldn’t look like Maxi, not for $2million.

Maxi looks like a DP for name your Midwest mls club, not at New York.

His sack shrinks up when he gets close to the goal. Higuain is making flicks, megging tricks, playing g’s in. Maxi is hustling around and completing 85%.

Fuck the fuck out of that.

We wouldn’t have finished 2nd in the East given the rest of the squad, if Maxi weren’t on the team.

We will never win an MLS cup burning a DP slot on a player at the caliber of Maxi.
 
I’m sure some left backs have figured Harrison out, but I think he’s limited with what he can do because of the team’s setup. There’s no target forward for him to cross to. Wallace isn’t really a viable target either, although two of Wallace’s goals did come from rebounds of Harrison’s shots off the post. If Jack doesn’t take a shot himself off the dribble, his only option is to pass it back to the middle on the ground to usually Villa who has run into the space at the top of the box. Rarely does anybody crash the goalmouth for Jack to center a hard/low shot. Rarely is there a midfielder running into the box. There just aren’t a lot of options for Jack to work with beside taking his guy on 1v1.
Yeah. To repeat a point that has been made a few times in the past, we have not helped him out with an overlapping fullback either.
 
All of that said, a DP #10 in MLS shouldn’t look like Maxi, not for $2million.

Maxi looks like a DP for name your Midwest mls club, not at New York.

His sack shrinks up when he gets close to the goal. Higuain is making flicks, megging tricks, playing g’s in. Maxi is hustling around and completing 85%.

Fuck the fuck out of that.

We wouldn’t have finished 2nd in the East given the rest of the squad, if Maxi weren’t on the team.

We will never win an MLS cup burning a DP slot on a player at the caliber of Maxi.
I’ll go a step further:

Our football people knew they fucked it up so bad with Pirlo, they signed the most creative two way player they could find at some budgeted price to mitigate our results on the season.

They knew Maxi couldn’t create. It was CYA over Zombie Pirlo’s rot spreading to every limb, as we all saw at the end of last year.
 
So. You know me. I started this last night.
I'm started quantifying our offensive production beyond Villa. I know many players do important things that don't result in goals or assists. I try not to be the guy whose answer to my team's woes is "We need more people who score goals. All the goallzz!" But damn, we need more people who score or create goals.

Here are the top 5 goal scorers for every East playoff team, plus Portland and Seattle. The first line is the team name and its total goals for the season. Below that the columns go Player|Goals|Pct. of Team Goals|Assists. Then I added salary info for selected individuals. I left the labels off to save space:

View attachment 7715 View attachment 7716
Where to begin. First some stuff not in these charts.
  • Our second highest goal scorer Harrison scored 7 of his 10 in the first half of the season.
  • Wallace scored all of his 4 by Game 13. Yes, our 4th highest goal scorer was goalless over the last 21 games.
Now let's compare:
  • With 5, 4 and 3 goals our 3rd, 4th and 5th best goal scorers compare mostly to Chicago and the Red Bulls. With everyone else there is a clear gap.
  • With 10 goals our second best goal scorer is even with Portland and behind everyone else.
  • We are the only team besides Chicago in this group without a double digit assist generator, though 9 and 9 from Villa and Maxi compare favorably to most teams' top 2.
  • Remember that on 2 metrics Chicago is one of the few teams we compare favorably with and they are eliminated.
To make it clearer, the next tables show (1) the ranking of the same teams by how many goals their 3-5 top scorers made, then (2) the ranking of the same teams by how many goals their 2-5 top scorers made. NYC comes in next-to-last and dead-last respectively. The last column in each chart is what percentage of each team's goals that group generated:
View attachment 7717
Again, I love the guys who do the work that don't make the scoring stats, but somebody does have to score the freaking goals. And we don't have those guys beyond Villa.
Let's look at previous editions of NYCFC. This is depressing.
View attachment 7718

  • Our total goals this year are down by 6 from 2016. The difference between a half season of Lampard and his DP replacement is a loss of 7.
  • I included Pirlo in 2016 just to show he is our only double digit assist maker in 3 years.
  • 2017 McNamara is 2015 Ballouchy.
  • 2017 Moralez is 2015 McNamara with more assists. Significantly more assists, but still. Both were the 3rd highest goal scorer with 5 goals. Maxi makes 10 times what TMac makes in 2017.
  • With 3 goals, McNamara should not be in the 2017 top 5, but that's not his fault. The problem is we don't actually have 5 better goal scorers than him. Plus, he only played 53% of the team's minutes. How do we not have 5 higher goal scorers than a guy who played barely more than half the time?
  • Shelton 2016 was a fluke or he regressed horribly. Take your pick.
  • Who did Reyna and Vieira think would replace Lampard's goals in 2017? Harrison? Moralez? Remember how much the team improved the second half of 2016 after Frank and Jack showed up? First half of 2016 27 goals. Second half 35. NYCFC needed that production.
  • Jack played 21 games in 2016 and had 4 goals and 7 assists. The latter let Shelton edge him slightly which is why he's not on the list. Jack played 21 games. Projected to 34 games you get 6.5 goals and 11.3 assists. He outperformed those projections on goals and under on assists. I can live with that type of development. He also came nowhere near to being a goal replacement for Lampard and it was crazy to think he would be. But if he was not supposed to do it, then who?
  • Project Frank's stats to 34 games and you get 21.5 goals and 5.4 assists. Project to the 29 games Maxi played and it comes to 18.3 and 4.6. Instead we got Maxi with 5 and 9.
  • Maxi did not have an off year. Here are his stats from whoscored. I don't know why the 2017 numbers differ from MLS but this is what we have:
View attachment 7719

  • Maxi 2017 is exactly Maxi every other year. Actually better than some. There's no reason to expect a jump up next year.
  • Again. Maxi does lots of great things that don't get him a goal or an assist, but he cannot be our 3rd highest goal scorer and 3rd highest paid player.
  • Can Jack improve, so he gets 7 goals in both halves of the season, assuming he stays? Maybe. I can't count on it.
  • Maxi was a disastrous DP signing. Maybe he could have worked if we didn't already have a DP who scored 1 goal in his only full season of contributions to us and was about to become fully useless. But a DP like Maxi is a luxury at best if you are already stacked with goal producers. As we are not.Maxi gives us half of what Vazquez creates for 3 times the price and a DP slot. Meram, Higuain, Villalba, Asad, Royer, Blanco all created more goals for less. Hell, Roldan is competitive at about 6% of the salary and no DP slot.
  • Maxi can be a great contributing player on a team without MLS salary limits. Or maybe he can be like Bradley, a DP on a team with 2 DP scorers and a TAM who also produces. I don't know what the hell he is doing here at this cost with this roster.
What do we do now?
  • We're not cutting Maxi. On top of what I wrote a few days ago about how it will hurt the team's credibility, I have no reason to think the club is willing to eat $2 million.
  • Our Pirlo replacement has to be a goal producer. I have no interest right now in a defensive DP, or some guy who is great at starting a buildup, or goes box to box but doesn't score, or anything like that. This is even more true because Villa turns 36 next month and we have no idea when he will start to fade. I think one more year of excellence is likely, but far from a given. If he does fade even a shade next year and NYCFC does not get a true goal scorer, the team is toast.
  • Do something with TAM. Do we even have a TAM player? After the DPs the highest paid player on our 2017 list is Mix at $770k and he doesn't count. The next highest is Chanot at $383k. Where is our Vazquez for $700k? What are we doing with it? Why are buying down nobody?
  • Maybe try playing Lewis?
  • The only reason I wouldn't can Reyna is the hope we sign his kid in the next 12 months.


This is one of the best posts we've ever seen on here. Thank you
 
I think the expectations were that Maxi would be the assist engine and Wallace/Harrison would carry the additional scoring load. Your numbers prove Maxi clearly under preformed but I do think his assist numbers are lower than he deserves based on the limitations of every player other than Villa to convert the chances Maxi created.

I know his age, potential and endearing personality make it rare for people to question him but a good deal of this should fall on Harrison. Personally I think his current game is too one dimensional and the league has figured him out. Every move ends with him trying to cut in on that left foot. Unless he plans to perfect that to arjen robben type levels he needs to develop a few more attacking approaches.
You get to say it without catching hell. Jack is a fairly mediocre player.

Maxi isn’t even mediocre as a 10, he’s just a hustle bug attempt on the part of FO people to keep their jobs.

You don’t win titles with people going for job security.

Our FO needs to go. Either they failed, or they are being handicapped by the org to an extent it forces failure upon them.

If you’re in that spot, you gotta go.
 
I’ll go a step further:

Our football people knew they fucked it up so bad with Pirlo, they signed the most creative two way player they could find at some budgeted price to mitigate our results on the season.

They knew Maxi couldn’t create. It was CYA over Zombie Pirlo’s rot spreading to every limb, as we all saw at the end of last year.


Bingo. Except for the part that they knew Maxi couldn't create. They thought they were getting Lodeiro. Everything else is 100% true
 
  • Like
Reactions: Midas Mulligan
For those of you picking on Jack, he's 20 years old, this is his second year of playing professional soccer, he was our second best offensive player and he played in a system used with overlapping fullbacks but we didn't provide him one.

I'm not saying he's a savior, but at 20 he's every bit the player Meram is ($375k), Paul Ariola is (DP), or Zardes is ($500k).

Jack makes a fraction of what those guys make. I would argue, behind Ring and Callens, we've gotten more out of him for what he's making than anyone else on the team. Wallace makes double. Maxi makes 10x as much. Shelton makes more. McNamara makes more.

Lay off Jack. He's outperformed his contract.