Race for CCL Spot 2019

Based on the Language in the CONCACAF Document, Have We Qualified For the 2019 CCL? - Moot Poll Now

  • Yes - We Qualified

    Votes: 28 84.8%
  • No - We Did Not Qualify

    Votes: 5 15.2%

  • Total voters
    33
Bingo. NYCFC has a ton of road games over the next month and a half. Something like six of seven in June/July are at home. If they keep this lead over the next month and a half they could really open it up and not leave it to the final weeks.
And we also have a very weak final 6 matches to either make up points or extend the lead. Our schedule is actually quite beneficial for us. 8pts off of 4 away matches (2 being on turf) is quite good.

Atlanta has a 5 of 6 Away stretch in late August and all of September. So their schedule will be in a favorable (for them) H/A imbalance all summer. They also finish in Toronto.
 
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And we also have a very weak final 6 matches to either make up points or extend the lead. Our schedule is actually quite beneficial for us. 8pts off of 4 away matches (2 being on turf) is quite good.

They got points out of away matches at SKC, NE and ATL. Most likely top 10 (SKC and ATL top 5) in terms of difficult places to play and get a result.
 
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This early in the season, the Supporters Shield table is more about who is in form than who are the best teams in the league (somewhat), but its worth taking a look at it to see how impressive our undefeated record through 7 is. We have played:
2nd (SKC)
3rd (ATL)
4th (NER)
6th (ORL)
7th (LAG)

After the ATL result, 538 rates us the favorite to win the Supporters Shield.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but at this point in the CCL race it really is just between us and Atl. If Atl is able to pass us they'll probably win the shield, which then still has us as 1st in the CCL table. So barring a massive collapse we should qualify one of two ways, no?
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but at this point in the CCL race it really is just between us and Atl. If Atl is able to pass us they'll probably win the shield, which then still has us as 1st in the CCL table. So barring a massive collapse we should qualify one of two ways, no?

No. Shield winner doesn't qualify automatically this year because of the need to combine two regular seasons for one CCL qualification.

This year, the qualifiers are the MLS Cup winner and the US Open Cup winner. If either of those already qualify some other way, or if the MLS Cup winner is Canadian, then a replacement is taken from the combined Supporters Shield standings for 2017 and 2018. The same was true last year, and since Toronto won the MLS Cup, one spot is officially thrown to the combined table. The other spot went to Sporting KC.
 
I guess this is as good a place as any for this.

Odds are from 4/12, but can’t imagine they would have done anything but go down for us and ATL and up for TFC.

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Berhalter is best coach in MLS and he's in the worst market.

To play that style with the lack of talent? Good on him.
 
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This early in the season, the Supporters Shield table is more about who is in form than who are the best teams in the league (somewhat), but its worth taking a look at it to see how impressive our undefeated record through 7 is. We have played:
2nd (SKC)
3rd (ATL)
4th (NER)
6th (ORL)
7th (LAG)

After the ATL result, 538 rates us the favorite to win the Supporters Shield.
I've been tracking 538 game by game. The win over RSL put NYCFC's SPI rating above 40 for the first time this season (and I would guess, ever). We got a bigger bump from beating RSL at home than drawing ATL Away, which I thought a bit odd. NYC is now ranked first in every category but SPI and Off/Def strength. Those categories seem the least directly connected to results. In every other category, TFC has taken a bit of a beating the past few weeks
 
I've been tracking 538 game by game. The win over RSL put NYCFC's SPI rating above 40 for the first time this season (and I would guess, ever). We got a bigger bump from beating RSL at home than drawing ATL Away, which I thought a bit odd. NYC is now ranked first in every category but SPI and Off/Def strength. Those categories seem the least directly connected to results. In every other category, TFC has taken a bit of a beating the past few weeks
I do too. The ratings are sensitive to big wins and losses. The shutout also improved our defense from 1.6 to 1.5 which made us that much more likely to win games the rest of the season. I am pretty sure the model is still relying heavily on last year and the 4-1 loss to Columbus is dragging us down. I think its going to be another 6 weeks or so before the ratings reflect the 2018 season -- always interesting to look at though.
 
This early in the season, the Supporters Shield table is more about who is in form than who are the best teams in the league (somewhat), but its worth taking a look at it to see how impressive our undefeated record through 7 is. We have played:
2nd (SKC)
3rd (ATL)
4th (NER)
6th (ORL)
7th (LAG)

After the ATL result, 538 rates us the favorite to win the Supporters Shield.

And 2nd 3rd 4th all away with one win and two ties. Impressive.
 
And now we are going at #20, but that is deceptive because they've only played one game out of six at home.
Yeah, but they’re coached by Savarese and are green, so PV is gonna make this one personal and take it to them.
 
Going into todays matchups.

NYC 74 (27)
ATL 71 (27)
CLB 65 (26)
CHI 62 (28)
NJRB 59 (28)
POR 58 (28)
HOU 58 (28)

We play Portland tonight. A win puts us almost 20 points up on the N.J. POR HOU grouping. We’d also have s 10+ point lead on CLB & CHI. This is quickly becoming a 2 horse race. Giddy up!
 
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With the loss:

NYC 74 (26)
ATL 71 (27)
CLB 65 (26)
CHI 62 (28)
POR 61 (27)
NJRB 59 (28)
HOU 58 (28)