By The Numbers: What We've Done, What Must We Do

If you look at my posts on this thread I have been a voice of irrational optimism that we would turn our season around, win a bunch of games and make the playoffs. After yesterday I thought we were done. Now I am the voice of rational pessimism. The 5 worst teams in MLS are Orlando, Montreal, NYCFC, Philadelphia and Chicago and one of them is going to make the playoffs. Montreal fired Klopas and replaced him with his Assistant, that isn't going to shake things up. The Impact have the games in hand, but we are seeing with SKC what a crowded schedule does to a good team and Montreal aren't that good. Any of the 5 can be the 16th best team in MLS at the end of the season and make the playoffs.

We can still suck a little less than the other 4 worst teams in MLS for the rest of the season and make the playoffs with a couple of wins and a couple of ties.
 
If you look at my posts on this thread I have been a voice of irrational optimism that we would turn our season around, win a bunch of games and make the playoffs. After yesterday I thought we were done. Now I am the voice of rational pessimism. The 5 worst teams in MLS are Orlando, Montreal, NYCFC, Philadelphia and Chicago and one of them is going to make the playoffs. Montreal fired Klopas and replaced him with his Assistant, that isn't going to shake things up. The Impact have the games in hand, but we are seeing with SKC what a crowded schedule does to a good team and Montreal aren't that good. Any of the 5 can be the 16th best team in MLS at the end of the season and make the playoffs.

We can still suck a little less than the other 4 worst teams in MLS for the rest of the season and make the playoffs with a couple of wins and a couple of ties.
I actually agree with you but am also concerned by it. Every time I see the post game comments of #TheDemotivator I become more convinced that he is a horrible coach and manager.

I don't know if he was this harsh or bitter towards his players at RSL. I suspect he wasn't or else that he was given more respect because of his history with that club as a player. Here he is just an asshole with a title.

More and more I feel that if we win it will be despite his coaching, not because of it. And winning and making the playoffs I think would just about assure us of more Kreis next year. I think that would be horrible.

I'd love to see us do what Montreal did and can him this week. But I think our only real chance to rid ourselves of this albatross is to miss the playoffs.
 
If you look at my posts on this thread I have been a voice of irrational optimism that we would turn our season around, win a bunch of games and make the playoffs. After yesterday I thought we were done. Now I am the voice of rational pessimism. The 5 worst teams in MLS are Orlando, Montreal, NYCFC, Philadelphia and Chicago and one of them is going to make the playoffs. Montreal fired Klopas and replaced him with his Assistant, that isn't going to shake things up. The Impact have the games in hand, but we are seeing with SKC what a crowded schedule does to a good team and Montreal aren't that good. Any of the 5 can be the 16th best team in MLS at the end of the season and make the playoffs.

We can still suck a little less than the other 4 worst teams in MLS for the rest of the season and make the playoffs with a couple of wins and a couple of ties.
Apart from our loss, the most frustrating thing about this week's slate of games was the way other results seem to taunt us, ... "If only, if only." Montreal is on a slide. I suppose we would have preferred that Philadelphia have either managed to tie or beat New England, which would have kept New England closer (and if we won allow us to make up ground). But once Chicago beat NYRB midweek, we wanted a tie between the Fire and Orlando last night and that's exactly what we got. Although again, because we lost, they both moved slightly forward relative to us.
The even bigger killer is the realization that, given these results, a tie yesterday would have been a meaningful difference-maker.

So, even though the NYRB and DC have yet to play tonight, which will change the top of this table, that's fully irrelevant to us so let's have a look-see:

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On points we're ahead of Chicago but they have one game in hand. Philadelphia is exactly as far behind us as we are behind Orlando. Even with Montreal's slide, they still have 4 extra games to play and while they might very well continue to falter, I cannot expect them to just lose every extra game.
Bottom line is I agree with Sabo Sabo - we are terrible but we have a chance because we are surrounded by roughly equally bad teams, all vying for one playoff spot. New England is out of reach. I'm calling it. They are 9 points ahead and have a game in hand. They could go 2-4-2 and get 45 points. I suppose they could go winless from here on out and prove me wrong but I'm confident enough to say we will not catch them.

Also, stating the obvious here but worth a reminder. When last week started Columbus was within reach. Not even close any more.

Next, beating my new dead hobbyhorse, we have played at a 0.89 PPG rate since our first transfers arrived for our July 12 game against Toronto.

I still think 43 and possibly 42 points probably gets but does not guarantee a playoff spot. Sports Club Stats agrees, putting our 50% line between 42 and 43. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html

Win-Lose-Draw:
5-0-2 45 points
5-1-1 44 points
4-0-3 43 points
5-2-0 43 points
4-1-2 42 points
4-2-1 41 points
3-1-3 40 points

not-dead-yet.gif
 
I was bracing for a really depressing update after yesterday, but you've managed to keep this alive
 
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I was bracing for a really depressing update after yesterday, but you've managed to keep this alive
Who needs a depressing update when you've got season tickets. I literally signed up day one for a front row view of this shit show.

Time to renew, I guess. I do appreciate that this is one area of my life where I can emotionally engage and feel utterly blameless no matter how shit everything goes.
 
It's hard to believe and amazingly painful that the point we punted yesterday actually turned out to be a meaningful one. #sixthplaceshitshowcircus
 
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Perhaps the calculations should continue but go the other way, as in what chance NY has for the Wooden Spoon (worst record in the league). For all the looking upward, NY is just a point away from being the worst team in the league - and Chicago has a game in hand. Given the brutal schedule going forward, the discord in the locker room...there is a chance that NY finishes dead last.

Would love to see CFG's statement if that happens.
 
Is there an actual source for this? Or is it just speculation. Unless I missed something I've not heard this.
When the coach publicly and regularly blames everyone but himself, it seems highly probable players don't care too much for it, since they are humans.
 
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When the coach publicly and regularly blames everyone but himself, it seems highly probable players don't care too much for it, since they are humans.
I hear what you're saying and it could very well be true, but on the other hand it's something we just don't know for sure. I realize this may be part of the transparency problem, but where's the half hour interview with Kreis, say, or with any of the players? Or the 10-page Rolling Stone article? Or really anything that can be quoted beyond a two-second post-game on-camera shot?

All I'm asking is if there's any actual evidence that everyone hates Kreis (or even the possibility that everyone loves him).
 
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I hear what you're saying and it could very well be true, but on the other hand it's something we just don't know for sure. I realize this may be part of the transparency problem, but where's the half hour interview with Kreis, say, or with any of the players? Or the 10-page Rolling Stone article? Or really anything that can be quoted beyond a two-second post-game on-camera shot?

All I'm asking is if there's any actual evidence that everyone hates Kreis (or even the possibility that everyone loves him).
Read the article on hrb. Lampard, pirlo and Mullins were like I don't know what he is taking about.
 
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Read the article on hrb. Lampard, pirlo and Mullins were like I don't know what he is taking about.
Yeah, that article was a little odd. Well, not the article, but what everyone said. And you're right, they were basically shrugging their shoulders. They didn't say it was a locker room lovefest, where they're all sitting around singing songs together before and after matches. Nor did they say "it sucks, we all hate Kreis and are plotting against him" either. So bottom line, who knows what the heck's going on. As always.

Link to article: http://www.hudsonriverblue.com/2015...espond-to-kreis-criticism-after-crushing-loss

And the Kreis article before that: http://www.hudsonriverblue.com/2015...the-players-need-to-show-they-want-to-be-here
 
Some encouraging news: Ciman of Montreal is suspended two games for two yellows in a game and yellow card accumulation.
 
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Some encouraging news: Ciman of Montreal is suspended two games for two yellows in a game and yellow card accumulation.
He is also out this week for international duty, and Montreal does play this week I do not know if that means the two-game suspension gets served after he returns or does he catch a break.
 
I just finished watching the weekly "INSTANT REPLAY" video over on mlssoccer.com and according to them he starts serving the 2 game ban when he returns to the team from international duty.
 
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Columbus plays tonight, but they are beyond our 6th place concerns so no need to wait for this week's post.

Two very bad results last night, one good, and one of disputed irrelevancy. The clearly bad results were Montreal beating Chicago and Philadelphia beating SJ. The Montreal was worse. We could have lived with either a Montreal Chicago tie or a Chicago win on the theory that Chicago is a lesser threat than Montreal. The projected playoff line is now at 44 points and Montreal has a 3 point lead and still 3 games in hand. As an example, the Impact can go a rather sub-mediocre 3-5-2 and still get 42 points. Anything better and our job is even harder. We need 4 wins, 1 loss and 2 ties to get 42 points.

Philadelphia's win puts them ahead of us. It is not by much, but we don't want additional teams between us and the playoffs. Orlando, having lost, is actually slightly behind us on a PPG basis if you calculate to more decimal places. Chicago is Chicago.

Some folks want to hope (as seen on other threads) that TFC will implode just because they never made the playoffs before. As if this year's roster and players like Giovinco care about that. But let's check the math. It is possible but will take a lot. They barely lost last night in Seattle against both Dempsey and Martins largely with half their team gone for international duty.
TFC's remaining schedule:
Home (6): New England, Colorado, Chicago, Philadelphia, NYRB, Columbus
Away (2): NYCFC, Montreal

If TFC wins only 2, draws 1, and loses 5 they still get 44 points. We need to go 5-1-1 to reach 44. And if you want to hope that TFC loses even more than that then you are likely giving points to Chicago, Philadelphia, and/or Montreal.
I believe TFC is irrelevant to us now, but if it makes you happy that they lost last night, it does no harm so enjoy.

But I believe our only target is Montreal. Between Saturday, Sept 12 and Saturday, Sept 26, they play 5 games in 2 weeks. We better hope they exhaust themselves.
 
Columbus plays tonight, but they are beyond our 6th place concerns so no need to wait for this week's post.

Death Watch Update
Like mgarbowski mgarbowski, I have already done my MaxP calculations for the week.
As things stand, there are four teams in the Eastern Conference who will NEVER clear 50 points this season. All the rest can clear 60. The closest to us is New England who stands at 40 pts to date and has a MaxP of 61.
Of the six teams ahead of us, one of them would have to lose at least four of their remaining 6-10 games while City wins EVERY one of their remaining games just for City to have a chance at breaking the top six. Here's the table.

Eastern Conference
1) 69 - NY Red Bulls
2) 62 - DC United
3) 61 - Montreal
4) 61 - Toronto
5) 61 - New England
6) 59 - Columbus
7) 49 - New York City
8) 48 - Chicago
9) 48 - Philadelphia
10)47 - Orlando City

Western Conference
1) 68 - FC Dallas
2) 67 - Kansas City
3) 66 - Vancouver
4) 64 - Portland
5) 64 - LA Galaxy
6) 59 - Seattle
7) 59 - San Jose
8) 57 - Colorado
9) 56 - Houston
10)53 - Real Salt Lake

As usual, these rankings are based on Maximum Possible Points (MaxP) for the season.
These point totals can't be exceeded; they can only be reduced by a draw or a loss.

UPDATE: 10:51pm Sunday (6)
With Columbus' loss to Dallas, they dropped from 3rd to 6th in the Eastern Conference table.
Unfortunately, City has no more matches with Columbus.
 
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