Pretty much the opposite of last year. As of Game 22 we were done with Toronto, Philadelphia, Montreal and RB, and every remaining conference game we had was against a team below the red line, although DC ended up above,
2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative
- Thread starter mgarbowski
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There is not one spot in these standings where the West is ahead of, or even with, the East. NYC is third in the East and third overall.
NYC is closer to the two teams behind them that to the 2 teams ahead. In fact, NYC is closer to Atlanta than Toronto, albeit barely, on PPG. None of which means a drop is more likely than a climb, but 1-2 bad results can do more harm than 1-2 good results can do good. NYC has not yet played Toronto or Chicago and has 2 games left against each. A win and a tie just draws NYC even with Chicago on points and would eave them still one point behind Toronto. FYI,
Chicago and TFC have played once in Toronto with Toronto winning 3-1. One game remaining in Chicago, but Chicago will be on short rest playing in Montreal 3 days earlier while Toronto will be on a full week of rest.
NB: The Games Played column is wrong. I'll try to fix soon.
Toronto and Chicago are also the only two teams ahead of NYC in Goal Differential.
NYC's defense is slipping. They are down to 7th in Goals Against (in a 3-way tie) after spending much of the early season in the top 5. They have only one clean sheet in the last 10 games. They managed 2 in the first 6. Still, they have given up 11 fewer goals than at this point last year. If you want to minimize the effect of the Red Bull Wedding last year by throwing out the worst GA game each year, the difference is still a healthy 7 goal improvement.
NYC have climbed to 1 game over even on wins and losses in MLS regular season play, which ignores the 0-5-0 record in playoffs and US Open Cup play.
NYC is just short of the halfway mark through the season with an even number of Home and Away games (although it looks like the second half schedule is harder based on opponent quality). Here is the sample finishes with results:
The bottom 3 rungs are arguably irrelevant at this point and would represent a massive collapse.
NYC is the opposite of streaky this year. On that third chart showing the rolling 5-game PPG, 2017 is living inside both extreme highs and lows for both 2016 and 2015.
- Most consecutive wins 2.
- Most consecutive losses 1.
- Consecutive unbeaten 3.
- Consecutive winless 2.
NYC has won 3 games this year by a 2-1 score. All were at home, and all came after falling behind. This includes the most recent 2 games overall. During the last 3 consecutive games at home (ignoring the US Open cup away game) the only game tin which NYC never trailed is the only one it didn't win.
NYC is 4-4 in 1-goal games. That represents 50% of their wins but fully 80% of their losses. They have a ways to go before one could say they make efficient use of goals (although this is probably random more than anything else IMO).
Halfway done, folks. 30 pts in the book, projecting to 60 points for the entire year.
That would be shield-winning numbers (point totals of last 4 shield winners: 59, 64, 60, 60) except for the absurd paces of TOR and CHI right now.
The eye test says that NYCFC hasn't played to potential yet, and has dropped a bunch of points. Also, NYCFC still plays TOR twice and CHI twice, so opportunity is there to catch them.
Probably only need 20 pts out of remaining 17 games to make playoffs as well - if you use 50 pts as the benchmark.
That would be shield-winning numbers (point totals of last 4 shield winners: 59, 64, 60, 60) except for the absurd paces of TOR and CHI right now.
The eye test says that NYCFC hasn't played to potential yet, and has dropped a bunch of points. Also, NYCFC still plays TOR twice and CHI twice, so opportunity is there to catch them.
Probably only need 20 pts out of remaining 17 games to make playoffs as well - if you use 50 pts as the benchmark.
I'm not worried about Top 6 in the east to qualify for playoffs or even Top 4 to qualify for home field advantage. I'm worried about Top 2 for bye.
If we can ever get a healthy first 11 playing, with 2-3 added reinforcements in the transfer window, then I'm not sure there are many teams in the league that can match us on quality - it'll take some Herculean performances by either their GK'ers, CBs, or forwards to tip the scales - or a complete lineup fckup by PV - and unfortunately we've seen all of those variables happen this season. It's crazy how so many GK'ers play their best games against us and revert to the norm afterwards.
I am betting, baring major injuries, that we finish the second half stronger with more than 30pts.
And as was previously mentioned here or somewhere else on the Forums, our matches against Chicago and Toronto both come on double game weeks...
July 19 vs. Toronto, July 22 vs. Chicago (July 5th at Portland is Chicago's previous game)
July 30 at Toronto
September 27 at Montreal, September 30 at Chicago (Chicago play SJ on Wednesday)
So those first two home games we're at a disadvantage. I'd call the rest of the games even.
And we're likely without Sean Johnson for those first two matches, so we're at a double disadvantage. Sheeeeeeeit.
July 19 vs. Toronto, July 22 vs. Chicago (July 5th at Portland is Chicago's previous game)
July 30 at Toronto
September 27 at Montreal, September 30 at Chicago (Chicago play SJ on Wednesday)
So those first two home games we're at a disadvantage. I'd call the rest of the games even.
And we're likely without Sean Johnson for those first two matches, so we're at a double disadvantage. Sheeeeeeeit.
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Before I started drafting this update I checked what I and others said at the halfway point last year. First thing I noticed was that
canchon had made a similar halfway projection update at this point last year. Which is great. I like when patterns emerge and I can count on people.
Here is what else I discovered. NYC had 24 points after 17 games last year, which meant they earned 30 in the second half. Which further means the team has now put together two consecutive 30-point half seasons. They did this with only 15 Home games and 19 Away. That's a very impressive season-length stretch, even if it is spread over two seasons.
But oddly, despite an increase of 0.35 PPG which translates to 6 more points than this time last year, the team is in a less favorable spot due to the torrid paces of both Toronto and Chicago. Halfway through last season NYC only looked up at Philadelphia. Toronto was below the playoff line, but had games in hand and most of them at home, which led me to predict they would make a run. Of the Red Bulls at this point last year, I noted they could not win at home and so seemed not so much a threat except they always beat us. Toronto made its run, but so did RB, who lost game 18 then never lost again in the 2016 regular season.
If you combine TFC's second half of 2016 with their first half this year it adds up to 65 points, but was done with 19H and 15A.
Chicago's notable achievement is that in 2017 they won more points in 17 games (34) than they did in the full season of 34 games last year (31).
You can see there is now real separation between the top 3 in the East and the rest of the conference. SKC and Dallas are within range but NYC would be comfortably atop the West while not even getting a bye in the East. The playoff projection line for both conferences is probably within margin of error, but everything else skews solidly East.
I dropped a line or two on the bottom of this table and added one between 68 and 63 near the top. Barring a collapse, the issue is how far above 50 does NYC finish, and can they break through to the top 2 spots. Both TFC and Chicago built their record this year by not losing at home. It seems unlikely they will both hold that record through the full season, but undefeated home records are not unknown in MLS. Since going to the 34 game season in 2011, there have been 3 home-undefeated teams in 6 years, including Colorado last year. Having 1 or 2 teams finish that way in 2017 would be unusual, but not ridiculous to imagine.
NYCFC finally has a 3-game winning streak in 2017, but still less streaky than the past. The other notable item in this week's graphs is that the Goal Differential chart had to expand its range. The old ones went to 10, but NYC just went to 11, and so the graph had to expand to 15:
Last year's halfway post was here if you want to review.
canchon had made a similar halfway projection update at this point last year. Which is great. I like when patterns emerge and I can count on people.Here is what else I discovered. NYC had 24 points after 17 games last year, which meant they earned 30 in the second half. Which further means the team has now put together two consecutive 30-point half seasons. They did this with only 15 Home games and 19 Away. That's a very impressive season-length stretch, even if it is spread over two seasons.
But oddly, despite an increase of 0.35 PPG which translates to 6 more points than this time last year, the team is in a less favorable spot due to the torrid paces of both Toronto and Chicago. Halfway through last season NYC only looked up at Philadelphia. Toronto was below the playoff line, but had games in hand and most of them at home, which led me to predict they would make a run. Of the Red Bulls at this point last year, I noted they could not win at home and so seemed not so much a threat except they always beat us. Toronto made its run, but so did RB, who lost game 18 then never lost again in the 2016 regular season.
If you combine TFC's second half of 2016 with their first half this year it adds up to 65 points, but was done with 19H and 15A.
Chicago's notable achievement is that in 2017 they won more points in 17 games (34) than they did in the full season of 34 games last year (31).
You can see there is now real separation between the top 3 in the East and the rest of the conference. SKC and Dallas are within range but NYC would be comfortably atop the West while not even getting a bye in the East. The playoff projection line for both conferences is probably within margin of error, but everything else skews solidly East.
I dropped a line or two on the bottom of this table and added one between 68 and 63 near the top. Barring a collapse, the issue is how far above 50 does NYC finish, and can they break through to the top 2 spots. Both TFC and Chicago built their record this year by not losing at home. It seems unlikely they will both hold that record through the full season, but undefeated home records are not unknown in MLS. Since going to the 34 game season in 2011, there have been 3 home-undefeated teams in 6 years, including Colorado last year. Having 1 or 2 teams finish that way in 2017 would be unusual, but not ridiculous to imagine.
NYCFC finally has a 3-game winning streak in 2017, but still less streaky than the past. The other notable item in this week's graphs is that the Goal Differential chart had to expand its range. The old ones went to 10, but NYC just went to 11, and so the graph had to expand to 15:
Last year's halfway post was here if you want to review.
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Great stuff.
I note that we are now at the point where our 2015 PPG level basically stabilized and within 1-2 games of when it did so for 2016. That means somewhere pretty close to our projection of 59-60 points is probably a reasonable expectation.
Now, teams can have quite different runs in the 2nd half of the season than the first, as RBNJ, Seattle and Philly all proved last year, but I think that is not the most common outcome.
I note that we are now at the point where our 2015 PPG level basically stabilized and within 1-2 games of when it did so for 2016. That means somewhere pretty close to our projection of 59-60 points is probably a reasonable expectation.
Now, teams can have quite different runs in the 2nd half of the season than the first, as RBNJ, Seattle and Philly all proved last year, but I think that is not the most common outcome.
Looking at Toronto's schedule, they've played one good team all season. I think they're looking at a drop down to earth the next few months.
So, here's my contribution to a narrative:
Yangel effin' Herrera
ETA: Crew, Atl, Sounders, RBNJ all decent to good teams, all victimized.
Yangel effin' Herrera
ETA: Crew, Atl, Sounders, RBNJ all decent to good teams, all victimized.
Wow, I knew they hadn't played any of the top teams, but they've been feasting on the real shit of the league.
But, credit to them, they win the games they are supposed to. They don't fuck around and drop points to the crappy teams.
No mention of Ben Sweat's whoscored rating last game?
Someone said the same thing on Twitter this weekend and I don't see it. How are you defining good? Just looking at their wins, TFC has beaten Chicago (2), Houston (3), Orlando (4), and Columbus (5) twice. That's the standings place in ().
NYC has beaten San Jose (5), Columbus (5), Atlanta(6), and Orlando (4).
TFC has 5 wins against currently teams above the playoff line, we have 4. They've beaten a 2 and a 3 and NYC's best win is against a 4. You can maybe discount their wins against Chicago and Houston for coming at home, but it's still a win against a good team.
ETA since T Tom in Fairfield CT agreed with you while I was writing this I'll ask the same to him. How do you not credit them for beating teams better than NYC has beaten so far.
Highly subjective, but the Chicago game came pre-schweiny, and they are different team since then. Houston is the only "good" team on there. We all know that despite being in 4th place Orlando sucks ass. Columbus is debatable as to how they will shake out, but they are definitely not in the upper echelon.
DC, NE, NE and Minnesota are some of the worst teams in the league.
I never compared it to our schedule, which does have some good results in there. Atlanta, SJ and the away Dallas draw. We also know we haven't had our best XI available ever.
They've taken advantage of all the non-playoff points, where more than half of their points come from. I think Colombus has looked very meh, everyone knows Orlando is actually trash hiding behind ugly games and Larin scoring on their only opportunities... We have had a pretty easy road, too, though. It'll all come down to the games between the top 3. Everyone else kinda feels interchangeable. Toronto was really opportunistic getting points when they should have, though. I guess we'll see. I think we'll see Chicago and NYC up at the top come September.
Well, the point being made was not about who Toronto has beaten, but who they've played.
So, basing this off the most recent SI MLS Power Rankings, Toronto's games against the Top 10 are:
#2 - Chicago (home) *- pre-Schweinsteiger
#5 - SKC (home)
#6 - Atlanta (home)
#8 - Red Bulls (away)
#9 - Houston (home)
That's 5 games out of a total of 13 they will play against the Top 10, with 4 of 5 at home. Yes, their schedule has been on the easy side, but...
Here is ours:
#3 - Dallas (away)
#6 - Atlanta (home-away)
#8 - New Jersey (away)
That's 4 of 14, but at least 3 of 4 were away.
So, basing this off the most recent SI MLS Power Rankings, Toronto's games against the Top 10 are:
#2 - Chicago (home) *- pre-Schweinsteiger
#5 - SKC (home)
#6 - Atlanta (home)
#8 - Red Bulls (away)
#9 - Houston (home)
That's 5 games out of a total of 13 they will play against the Top 10, with 4 of 5 at home. Yes, their schedule has been on the easy side, but...
Here is ours:
#3 - Dallas (away)
#6 - Atlanta (home-away)
#8 - New Jersey (away)
That's 4 of 14, but at least 3 of 4 were away.
I guess guys, but if you define good to mean maybe 4-5 teams in total, and then get to not count a match even against those because of missing players (or travel or short rest or whatever other subjective criteria you want to add), then most teams play maybe 2-3 tough games a year. Maybe less with all the injuries and international play this year. Toronto might not play us in a game that counts as tough under that analysis. Not sure it's a useful measure.
So I'm looking at projections and something has occurred to me about the league as a whole. Maybe a fact-man wants to check this out, but I'm starting to think that the addition of more money to the player salary budget has allowed for the band we call parity to widen.
Essentially, I think we're going to (maybe we already do) have classes of teams, sort of like the PL, but less exaggerated. It seems like that the projected playoff line this year is even higher than last. And last year seemingly and year 1 it definitely was above
mgarbowski 's projected numbers.
This year, you probably need 44-45 yet again to be in the playoffs. Probably 66-70 to win SS.
The point I'm trying to get at is the that bigger the size of the equal pieces everyone gets, the more discrepancy from smart clubs and poor clubs. What that means to me is that eventually, results will be less MLS-y in their randomness.
When everyone can only afford shit, everyone is shit. When everyone has enough money to buy at least 11 non-shit players, we are starting to see real separation amongst the clubs.
Essentially, I think we're going to (maybe we already do) have classes of teams, sort of like the PL, but less exaggerated. It seems like that the projected playoff line this year is even higher than last. And last year seemingly and year 1 it definitely was above
mgarbowski 's projected numbers.This year, you probably need 44-45 yet again to be in the playoffs. Probably 66-70 to win SS.
The point I'm trying to get at is the that bigger the size of the equal pieces everyone gets, the more discrepancy from smart clubs and poor clubs. What that means to me is that eventually, results will be less MLS-y in their randomness.
When everyone can only afford shit, everyone is shit. When everyone has enough money to buy at least 11 non-shit players, we are starting to see real separation amongst the clubs.
So, is there enough public information to chart salaries vs team performance? If we have the data it would be interesting to see a league table with an extra two columns, one for total salary cap hit and another for total actual salaries (i.e., full charges for the DPs, not just cap hit). Might also be interesting to see that on a per game basis (salary amount per game on the field vs. win/loss record).
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