2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative

I agree it's the players, but as much as I credit the 2 mids, they also added a forward who leads the league in goals, with a big gap between him and the next guy.
I also think the coach gets credit because I think he was involved in building the team, but in the end, it is the players.
to me, there are forwards that can score from garbage, and those guys were MLS 1.0 darlings. Wondo and Larin come to mind. Watching Chicago, Nikolic is scoring because he's being set up from the MF and the rest of the team. He's good, but put him on Colorado and he's not leading the league in goals.

EDIT: to further my point, look at the red bulls. They subtracted their best midfielder and went from first to middle of the pack. Still have BWP, still have kljestan, same genius coach, now they are MLS average.
 
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to me, there are forwards that can score from garbage, and those guys were MLS 1.0 darlings. Wondo and Larin come to mind. Watching Chicago, Nikolic is scoring because he's being set up from the MF and the rest of the team. He's good, but put him on Colorado and he's not leading the league in goals.
I'm not even arguing relative merits. I just think he has to be acknowledged as part of the mix. Accam also is better this year, but without Nikoloc the Fire is missing a piece. And I think Accam's improvement is part the midfielders and part Nikolic.
 
Here's some more fun with numbers on a quiet day...

Last year, our ten most used outfield players played a total of 21,749 minutes. This year, our top ten has played 12,243, which translates into 24,486 over a 34 match season. That's an extra 274 minutes per guy, or just over three matches. That strikes me a huge difference, though I haven't studied season to season variation on this.
  • The biggest reason is that we immediately locked down a number of positions from day one. 7 of the 10 spots have had "written in pen" starters from day one (Callens, Chanot, Ring, Maxi, Jack, Villa and Wallace). Those seven have been off the field for only an average of 137 minutes or basically 1.5 matches for the entire season.

  • Last year the only guys who were played at anything approaching that pace were Villa, Brillant and Pirlo. After the three of them, there was nobody who wasn't off the field for at least 8.5 matches (see, it only FELT like Jason Hernandez was always playing).

  • I do think, however, it also reflects that we've been pretty lucky with injuries this year. Matarrita is really the only guy who would be clear first 11 who has missed meaningful time, though Maxi now threatens to join him. I haven't done any analysis, but my gut is that we've lost among the fewest matches to injuries from our best 11 in MLS so far. Part of that may be good player selection and training, but there's almost certainly an element of luck there. That is probably the thing I worry most about for the second half, particularly at CB where we've been very fortunate so far.

  • The development of Herrera does mitigate my concern about injuries in the second half hampering performance relative to the first half because of how little he's played so far (421 mins) relative to how much he'll play in the second half.

I don't think we were really Vieira's team until after the US Open Cup loss last year. From May 21 (the 0-7 loss) to June 15 (the Cosmos loss), we went 0-3-1, all at home. After that Vieira made his sweeping changes, Jack Harrison and Frank Lampard were playing, and we were off.

I'll hypothesize that the second half of 2016 looks a lot more like the first half of 2017.
 
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I'll hypothesize that the second half of 2016 looks a lot more like the first half of 2017.

Second half of 2016: 17 games, 30 points
First half of 2017: 17 games, 30 points

2016 Shield winner (Dallas): 34 games, 60 points

Watching the games, NYCFC looks like a contender.
Looking at the stats says the same.
 
NYCFC Performance against Top-Middle-Bottom of League (by PPG, excluding NYC).

Top 7 Teams: 3-3-1; 10 points in 7 games; 1.43 PPG

Middle 7 Teams: 4-0-1; 13 points in 5 games; 2.8 PPG

Bottom 7 Teams: 3-2-1; 10 points in 6 games; 1.67 PPG
That makes sense. More color as to why we are 6th in RPI. Losing to shit teams is bad for that.

Also, for those arguing about TFC's schedule being easy, ours was statistically easier.
 
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That makes sense. More color as to why we are 6th in RPI. Losing to shit teams is bad for that.

Also, for those arguing about TFC's schedule being easy, ours was statistically easier.
They did get Chicago when getting Chicago was good. That win bumps their strength of schedule up
 
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I don't think either Toronto or Chicago will finish with 68 points. If they do NYC is not catching them. I do think it will take more than 60 points to win the East (and therefore almost certainly also win the SS). It might even take more than 60 points to finish second.

So I heavily adjusted the what if table to add 4 point values of 60 or higher.
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That is a minimum of 8 wins in the last 15 games to at least be in the mix. Let's play out the 63 point target breaking it down to Home and Away. NYC has 8 Home Games and 7 Road games remaining. A record of 7-0-1 at home and 2-3-2 Away would get the 63 points. Make sure the Home draw is not TFC or Chicago and the 3 Away losses are not TFC or Chicago, and NYC will probably have done most of what is necessary to catch one or both without needing much help. It is not mathematiclly guaranteed to be enough, but it makes the probabilities look pretty good.

In the other direction, to give an idea of the cushion NYC has before it could slip to Fifth Place and face an elimination road playoff game, the curent team in 5th place (Orlando) would need to go 8-2-4 to get 57 points. They have 14 games remaining with 6 Home and 8 Away. Win all 6 at home and they still have to go 2-2-4 Away just to get 57 points. That seems very unlikely. Unless NYC falls off a fair bit, it should not cause any worry about finishing below 4th Place. Orlando fans are very unhappy about the low rankings they have been getting from MLS writers lately. But they have a -7 GD, the benefit of a lot of 1 goal wins, and an unfavorable schedule.

Mind Your Draws
I wrote this next bit in another thread and I think it worth repeating and expanding a bit here. NYC is behind the leaders because it dropped too many points at home and failed to add some cheap 1 point draws on the road. At home, NYC has dropped more points (7), than TFC and Chicago have combined (6.) Neither leader has lost at home.

TFC has the same number of road wins as NYCFC does and Chicago has 2 fewer (Chicago has 1 road game in hand).
TFC also has 2 more road points than NYC because it earned 2 additional draws, not wins. NYC's road problem is that when it doesn't win, it loses. NYC is tied for most Away wins in the East, but only 4 East teams have more road losses, and only 3 East teams have as many or fewer points from Away draws. Away draws aren't sexy, but they are the bread and butter of Away competence. Not getting road draws and the Home loss to Orlando is why NYC is 5 points back.

Another way to look at it is NYC has 2 Home draws and only 1 on the road. That kills because Home draws mean points dropped while Away Draws are points earned. Flip that in a favorable fashion so NYC has 1 Home Draw and 2 Away. Vonverting one Home draw into a win adds 2 points. Make one Away Loss into a Draw adds 1. That would leave NYC just 2 points behind both East leaders even with the extra Home Loss worth 3 points. Drawing more at home than on the road is not something a top contender can afford to do.

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Team 2017 is 3 points ahead of Team 2016 after 19 games. The big advantage Team 2017 has is 8H/7A remaining compared to 6H/9A for 2016.
 
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The next three games will be telling. Win all 3 (or say 2 wins and a draw) and top of the East is achievable. Lose all 3 and it's a dogfight for the playoffs.

Somewhere in the middle, say 1-1-1 makes it most likely a 3 or 4 seed.
 
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Good stuff, as usual.

We are now at the point of the season where our PPG flattened out in 2015 and 2016. Absent a big change in the team, I think we can see where we will end up - somewhere around 57-61 points. A really good season, and good enough in most years.

On a separate note, I don't mind the dearth of ties on the road. While the losses at RSL and Vancouver stink, it's worth remembering that some portion of the missing ties can also be wins, and we have more than our share of those away from home. Plus, it's always better to get a win and a loss instead of two ties.
 
The next three games will be telling. Win all 3 (or say 2 wins and a draw) and top of the East is achievable. Lose all 3 and it's a dogfight for the playoffs.

Somewhere in the middle, say 1-1-1 makes it most likely a 3 or 4 seed.
Which team that 1-1-1 record is against is important. 1-0-1 vs Toronto means we've gained 3pts on them and are completely within striking distance. A loss vs Chicago doesn't help, but there's another game in the series to even it up for a net change of zero. If the record is flipped and we only get 0-1-1 vs Toronto, then they'll likely be out of touch baring a crazy run for us to finish the season; but that would mean a win vs Chicago with still another opportunity to take a win and close 3more pts on them. So really, a 1-1-1 record likely means #2 seed is the more likely best-case scenario.
 
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Which team that 1-1-1 record is against is important. 1-0-1 vs Toronto means we've gained 3pts on them and are completely within striking distance. A loss vs Chicago doesn't help, but there's another game in the series to even it up for a net change of zero. If the record is flipped and we only get 0-1-1 vs Toronto, then they'll likely be out of touch baring a crazy run for us to finish the season; but that would mean a win vs Chicago with still another opportunity to take a win and close 3more pts on them. So really, a 1-1-1 record likely means #2 seed is the more likely best-case scenario.
Another factor to consider is schedule makes Chicago more likely to stumble than Toronto. The Fire is the best home team and worst road team among them, TFC and us. And Chicago is the only team with more road games left than home. It's only a 1-game flip from the TFC and NYC schedule, but combined with Chicago having the greatest H/A record imbalance gives them a disadvantage which is not huge but likely is meaningful.
 
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I'm glad the Toronto and Chicago games came in a single game week. Separately they lead to extremes of despair and euphoria; together we have a chance of making some sense. NYC has gained ground on both this week thanks to the win over Chicago and Toronto's draw at home against a Colorado team who won it's first road point all year in 8 attempts. TFC dropped points 2 games in a row for the first time since April 8. Chicago has also dropped points 2 games in a row and it is their first time since May 6, which capped a 3-game winless streak. Following that, the Fire did not lose for 11 straight until Saturday against NYC. Behind NYC, Atlanta and the Red Bulls have both won 4 of the last 5 (Atlanta 5 of 6 even) and tightened up the playoff positioning race. For all the perception that RB has slipped they have a better record right now than they did last year at this point. In 2016, however, they did not lose after July 3 so they have a tough road to maintain that position.

The Galaxy lead the league with 5 road wins. Next come 4 teams with 4 Away wins, and all of them are above the playoff line in the East: Toronto, NYC, Atlanta and RB. This is largely why the East is so competitive and why the fifth best team in the East projects to more wins than the second best team in the West.

Dallas has won 3 in a row and slipped ahead of NYC in the SS race. They have just 3 Away wins but have as many Away points (13) as NYC and did that playing one fewer road game. Road draws. They have 4, NYC has 1. They have a winning road record, NYC a losing road record. Road draws.

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It probably takes 6-7 wints to keep NYC ahead of Atlanta and the other chasers, and 8-9 wins to have a shot at Chicago and/or Toronto, depending on how much they falter, if at all. After this next Away game in Toronto the 2 toughest road games remaining are Chicago and the Red Bulls. The rest, Galaxy, Colorado, Montreal and New England are games not to lose: 8 points from those 4 at least. At home, NYC has the Red Bulls as the toughest opponent, then SKC and Houston as modestly challenging, and New England, Portland and Columbus.

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Not much of a story in the graphs this week that is new, but here they are.
 
According to Playoff Status last week's combined results raised NYC's chances of finishing top 2 in the East from 24% to 34%, which is the second highest they have been all year. Year-long high remains 36% right after the 4-game win streak.

Sports Club Stats says that a win in Toronto would raise the odds of taking Supporters' Shield by 8.7% while a loss reduces it by 3.3%. A draw is a mildly positive result at +0.2%.
 
The narrative this week is that 1st Place is now a rather unlikely dream, and there is some occasion to worry about 5th Place and a road knockout game. It's not a most likely result but even a brief slump could do it.

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NYC is closer to Atlanta in 5th Place than to either Toronto or Chicago above. In fact, the next 2 clubs behind us could catch us with no help. The good news is that RB has a very tough Away schedule that will make a sustained run difficult. Atlanta's schedule is easy, except for the timing, which we'll cover shortly.

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At this point exceeding 60 points will take a run that is not something one would expect given performance to date, and requires a Win to Loss ratio of better than 3:1. Given a current ratio of 1.57:1, that is a major stretch. Still, another 4-game win streak would do wonders.
Meanwhile Toronto can get 63 points by going 6-4-2, which is a substantial step down for them.

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We're 4 points ahead of last year's pace. The 2016 team did not finish super strong. Most of its best work was done mid-season, going 7-2-2 and fitting in both a 3-game and 4-game win streak within games 9 through 19. The 2017 team has not had a stretch nearly as good as that, and surpasses the 2016 team largely by also having avoided anything as bad as the 1-3-4 start.
In the final 12 games last year NYC never won more than 2 in a row, although it only lost 3 times. It was a solid finish, but did not significantly outperform its own average. The same 6-3-3 finish this year would put NYC at 58 points for 2017.

Remaining Schedule
I considered doing a weighted measure, averaging out the remaining schedules against each opponent's H/A record to date, but decided on something different. it's a bit arbitrary, but allows you to focus on individual games rather than saying one team has a remaining schedule with a difficulty factor of 1.53 while a rival has a remaining schedule with a 1.47 difficulty factor. I tried to measure how many tough games and easy games remain. I arbitrarily chose the following cut-off lines: Home games are tough if the opponent is in the top 3 spots of its conference, and Away games are tough if the opponent is above the playoff line.
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Look at that. Toronto has the easiest schedule, with no tough home games and only 2 tough road games. The most one can argue ist they have 3 games left against Montreal, and they always seem to play each other hard. But still, this chart gives little hope that Toronto will falter unless they just suddenly play much worse than they have to date.

The Red Bulls have a very tough road schedule, which as noted above will make any sustained run difficult.

Atlanta has the most Home games against quality opponents, but also has 9 Home games against only 4 Away. The most challenging thing about their schedule is a stretch of 8 games in 24 days. They play weekend-plus-midweek four weeks in a row. On the plus side there is almost no travel, with 7 of the 8 games at Home, including the first 6 in a row. On the negative, 6 games in 18 days in Atlanta in September with their style of play could wear them down considerably. But having 3 more Home games than everyone else on this list has to be considered a plus.

Overall, chasing Toronto remains a dream. NYC can catch Chicago, but nothing in the schedule gives us an advantage. RB's Away sked should give NYC an advantage, but Atlanta has a real advantage, if their fitness can let them take advantage of all those Home games. It is probably easier for NYC to slip to 4th behind Atlanta than it will be to catch Chicago.
 
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This is wonderful! CHARTS! I love charts...

I had a growing suspicion as I was looking at the table and our schedule heading into this 4 game stretch that I figured that the only chance we would really have at 1st in the East was if we won out those games against TFC and the Fire. I'm fine with finishing around 3-4 as I feel that considering where we are as a team in comparison to those two clubs, 3rd is appropriate.
 
Overall, chasing Toronto remains a dream. NYC can catch Chicago, but nothing in the schedule gives us an advantage. RB's Away sked should give NYC an advantage, but Atlanta has a real advantage, if their fitness can let them take advantage of all those Home games. It is probably easier for NYC to slip to 4th behind Atlanta than it will be to catch Chicago.
The only "advantage" in the schedule for catching the Fire is that we get to play them one more time. I understand its in Chicago, so it could be viewed as an advantage for them to put distance between us, but we do have the chance to gain 3 points on them in that one match alone.
 
The only "advantage" in the schedule for catching the Fire is that we get to play them one more time. I understand its in Chicago, so it could be viewed as an advantage for them to put distance between us, but we do have the chance to gain 3 points on them in that one match alone.
As long as we stay within 2 points of Chicago, the 9/30 game should decide 2nd Place (or who gets to control their destiny for 2nd). That is very doable.