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2018 - Running With the Numbers and the Quest for Everything

Discussion in 'NYCFC Supporters Discussion' started by mgarbowski, Apr 30, 2018.

  1. mgarbowski

    mgarbowski Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Nine games in, NYCFC has passed the one-quarter mark, and it is time to start with graphs, numbers, and pseudo-legitimate projections. The playoffs seem to be a given, but this team has a realistic chance at Supporters Shield, a CCL spot based on 2-year record, and a playoff bye. Last year at this point NYC was third in both the regular and PPG standings behind Orlando and Toronto. That Orlando did not make the playoffs tells you how much weight to give to anything this early. With 16 points, NYC projected to 60-61 points this time last year, a little above their eventual total due to the late season slump.
    • NYC point totals after 9 games
      • 2015 - 6
      • 2016 - 10
      • 2017 - 16
      • 2-18 - 20
    • Here is how PPG stands stands this year 9-games in: Screen Shot 2018-04-29 at 11.31.03 PM.png
    • RSL, the team NYC destroyed, is just above the playoff line in the West, setting a playoff line at 42-43 points.
    • The East playoff line is 52-53 points, with a big jump down to Chicago at 39 in 7th place.
    • Last year TFC had 2.03 PPG in their record-shattering season. If they get 1.9 the rest of the way in 2018 they end with 57 points. If they get 2 PGG they will have 60 points. Even acknowledging how skewed things are this early, it very well might require they play that well to get a home game. A first round bye seems very unlikely. Playoffs are still probable unless they suffer a year long slump, but their early start means their margin for the occasional bad result like they suffered to Chicago on Saturday is thin.
    • Most folks know that the win over Dallas yesterday means NYC has now won a game against every MLS team except LAFC, who they have not yet played. Here are some related facts:
      • NYC has also won at home against every MLS team except LAFC.
      • 5 teams (including LAFC) have never won against NYC -- the others are Colorado, Houston, Minnesota, and San Jose.
      • NYCFC has won an Away game against every MLS team except Atlanta, Colorado, Dallas, LAFC, Minnesota, and RSL. That is only 4 when you exclude Minnesota and LAFC where NYC has never played.
    • All-time, NYC has dropped 6 points out of 6 playing in plastic garbage fished out of the ocean.
    • Line graphs! Screen Shot 2018-04-29 at 11.24.34 PM.png
    • I dropped 2015 from the line charts. It gets cluttered with more than 3.
    • Now for a very optimistic chart of possible future records and final point totals. There are 25 games left to the season: Screen Shot 2018-04-29 at 11.15.10 PM.png
    • Counting the Win-Loss differential and noting its progress over the season is a very baseball way of measuring that does not translate perfectly to soccer, but I still want to note that in 2016 NYC finished with 5 more wins than losses, and 7 in 2017. Right now the team stands at 5+ after only 9 games. If they were to finish with a rather disappointing 10-10-5 and not add anything to that differential they would have 55 points. That is how good this start has been.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2018
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  2. Schwallacus

    Schwallacus Regular Member

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    We've never beaten Portland at home, I believe. Our only win against them came in Portland.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2018
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  3. dannd23

    dannd23 Active Member

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    Correct. We lost to them in 2015 1-0 and 2017 1-0
     
  4. mgarbowski

    mgarbowski Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Damn. I'll check my data tonight. I suspect it is correct but I missed them when I scanned the list.
     
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  5. ZYanksRule

    ZYanksRule Active Member

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    The most impressive part of the season is our record despite playing some of the best teams in the league this season.

    at SKC (won): 1st in West, 3rd in MLS
    vs LA: (won): 5th in West
    vs ORL (won): 3rd in East
    at NE (draw): 4th in East
    at SJ (won): 11th in West
    vs RSL (won): 6th in West
    at ATL (draw): 2nd in East, 2nd in MLS
    at POR (lost): 10th in West
    vs DAL (won): 4th in West

    I mean -- that's a really hard early-season schedule, and we've aced it.
     
  6. adam

    adam Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    So let's look at Q2:

    @ NJ: 6th in East (but better than record)
    @LAFC: 2nd in West, 5th MLS
    vs COL: 9th in West
    @ HOU: 8th in West
    vs ORL, 3rd in East, 4th MLS
    vs ATL: 2nd in East, 2nd MLS
    vs TOR: Last in East (but we know)
    @ CHI: 7th in East
    vs NJ: 6th in East (but better than record)

    Only Colorado & Houston give us any type of break. And going to Houston isn't a walk in the park.
     
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  7. dannd23

    dannd23 Active Member

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    Ha, it's not to take away from your post as a whole because this is my favorite thread every year. Thanks for posting.
     
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  8. LionNYC

    LionNYC Senior Member Staff Member Elite Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    We have some crazy double and triple game weeks over the course of the season, and not to get ahead of ourselves but our final 7 games are all very winnable.

    vs. New England
    vs. DC
    at Montreal
    vs. Chicago
    at Minnesota
    at DC
    vs. Philadelphia

    The goal would be to pickup at least 17 points during this final stretch, 5 wins 2 draws.
     
  9. canchon

    canchon Active Member Seasoned Supporter

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    You could have the final six games (seven if NE fades) against non-playoff teams. Soft landing if there ever was one. So if NYCFC is leading going into that stretch, gotta feel good about Shield/CCL qualification.
     
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  10. Gotham Gator

    Gotham Gator Senior Member Donor

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    Atlanta's Closing Stretch
    @Colorado
    @San Jose
    RSL
    @New Jersey
    New England
    Chicago
    @Toronto
     
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  11. Mario

    Mario Active Member Seasoned Supporter

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    where's 2015?
     
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  12. Christopher Jee

    Christopher Jee Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Jeez MarioMario, it's almost like you aren't reading through the entire post lolol.

    TBF, with our 2015 performance it's hard to believe that there's any crowding.
     
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  13. Mario

    Mario Active Member Seasoned Supporter

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    i'll go fuck myself, sorry for interrupting.
     
  14. mgarbowski

    mgarbowski Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    It's mostly the 5-game rolling average chart that gets messy. Other reasons for dropping 2015 include (1) who really wants to look at 2015 any more, (2) 3 years generally seems a reasonably compare/contrast period, and (3) the team is so much better you don't need a line chart to know that.
     
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  15. adam

    adam Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    You may have to adjust the total points chart to track above 60 this season.
     
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  16. mgarbowski

    mgarbowski Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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  17. adam

    adam Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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  18. Midas Mulligan

    Midas Mulligan Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter International Liaison

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    You and UlrichUlrich, man. Always with the jinxes.
     
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  19. LionNYC

    LionNYC Senior Member Staff Member Elite Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Just to be safe, would everyone be alright if I take moderator action and delete all of these messages?
     
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  20. Ulrich

    Ulrich Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    What can I say.... I can’t help it if the team took the day off and wanted to make a jersey academy kid look like a super star - that bloodbath was on them.

    And we’re balling tomorrow!!!
     
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