2018 Schedule
- Thread starter Jon
- Start date
https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018...re-company-after-opening-7-match-unbeaten-run
A really insightful article by MLSsoccer.com about the best teams through 7 opening matches in MLS play. The undefeated record to start a season stands at 12 games. To beat that, we'd need to stay undefeated against: at Portland, vs. Dallas, at Red Bulls, at LAFC, vs. Colorado, at Houston.
I think we drop a game at some point over the course of the next 6 matches.
We are better than the 2015 Red Bulls that claimed the Supporters' Shield who started the year 3-0-4. We're currently at 5-0-2.
A really insightful article by MLSsoccer.com about the best teams through 7 opening matches in MLS play. The undefeated record to start a season stands at 12 games. To beat that, we'd need to stay undefeated against: at Portland, vs. Dallas, at Red Bulls, at LAFC, vs. Colorado, at Houston.
I think we drop a game at some point over the course of the next 6 matches.
We are better than the 2015 Red Bulls that claimed the Supporters' Shield who started the year 3-0-4. We're currently at 5-0-2.
Interesting.
Of the 11 previous teams, only 3 won the Supporters’ Shield and only 1 took the MLS Cup.
Still a lot of wood to chop.*
* - ETA: Probably not the best analogy to have used before this particular game.
Of the 11 previous teams, only 3 won the Supporters’ Shield and only 1 took the MLS Cup.
Still a lot of wood to chop.*
* - ETA: Probably not the best analogy to have used before this particular game.
Kick-off time change: NYCFC away match at Chicago Fire moved to 8:00 pm ET
Due to a national broadcast scheduling conflict, New York City FC’s match on Saturday, June 30th vs the Chicago Fire has been moved to 8:00 pm ET instead of the originally scheduled 8:30 pm ET. The match will remain live on YES Network and our radio affiliates WNYE (English) and WQBU (Spanish).
Due to a national broadcast scheduling conflict, New York City FC’s match on Saturday, June 30th vs the Chicago Fire has been moved to 8:00 pm ET instead of the originally scheduled 8:30 pm ET. The match will remain live on YES Network and our radio affiliates WNYE (English) and WQBU (Spanish).
I'm actually planning on being at that one while my brother while be in Section 8. Should make for some fun tailgating.
Baer: Who has faced the toughest and easiest schedules so far?
"You are what your record says you are."
The quote above comes from legendary football coach Bill Parcells and it's hard to argue with. There are always other factors in a team's overall production and performance, but when it comes down to it, all that matters is what's in the win, loss and draw columns.
As we enter the final month before the World Cup break, the table is beginning to take shape. The top six in the East have opened up a six-point gap above the playoff line, while Sporting Kansas City and LAFC have separated themselves a bit in the West. Of course, a major factor for some of these teams is the amount of matches played, with Columbus Crew SC already playing 12 and D.C. United sitting at just eight matches played.
While we discuss whether a team is lucky or unlucky, overperforming or underperforming, a major factor in a team's record is what teams they have played to earn it. Some have had the benefit of a home-heavy schedule (like FC Dallas), while Montreal, NYCFC and D.C. have spent a lot of time on the road.
Taking a look at the points per game a team's opponents have averaged so far can tell us who has had the benefit of an easy schedule so far and who has had to endure a tough one.
The figure above averages the points per game a team's opponents have earned, factoring in the differences between home and road performances. It also excludes the result in the match in question. For example, if we were trying to figure out the difficulty of Columbus' schedule and had to get the figure for a home win vs. D.C. United, the number would be .20, not .17 since their away record is 0-4-1 if you take out a loss.
The higher the average, the tougher the schedule. We can see that NYCFC have easily had the toughest schedule, which is no surprise considering they already made trips to Sporting KC, New England, Atlanta, LAFC and Portland. The Galaxy's schedule has been a lot tougher than it looks, considering their home matches have come against tough road opponents including LAFC, SKC and Atlanta.
Of the five teams with the easiest schedules so far, four sit in the top eight of the Supporters' Shield standings. The team with the easiest schedule so far, Toronto FC, has not been able to take advantage of it as they have been felled by injury woes and used second-string sides because of their run to the final in the Concacaf Champions League. With their schedule toughening up, a run to the top of the Eastern Conference could prove even more difficult.
(thanks to mods for moving this to the correct thread)
"You are what your record says you are."
The quote above comes from legendary football coach Bill Parcells and it's hard to argue with. There are always other factors in a team's overall production and performance, but when it comes down to it, all that matters is what's in the win, loss and draw columns.
As we enter the final month before the World Cup break, the table is beginning to take shape. The top six in the East have opened up a six-point gap above the playoff line, while Sporting Kansas City and LAFC have separated themselves a bit in the West. Of course, a major factor for some of these teams is the amount of matches played, with Columbus Crew SC already playing 12 and D.C. United sitting at just eight matches played.
While we discuss whether a team is lucky or unlucky, overperforming or underperforming, a major factor in a team's record is what teams they have played to earn it. Some have had the benefit of a home-heavy schedule (like FC Dallas), while Montreal, NYCFC and D.C. have spent a lot of time on the road.
Taking a look at the points per game a team's opponents have averaged so far can tell us who has had the benefit of an easy schedule so far and who has had to endure a tough one.
The figure above averages the points per game a team's opponents have earned, factoring in the differences between home and road performances. It also excludes the result in the match in question. For example, if we were trying to figure out the difficulty of Columbus' schedule and had to get the figure for a home win vs. D.C. United, the number would be .20, not .17 since their away record is 0-4-1 if you take out a loss.
The higher the average, the tougher the schedule. We can see that NYCFC have easily had the toughest schedule, which is no surprise considering they already made trips to Sporting KC, New England, Atlanta, LAFC and Portland. The Galaxy's schedule has been a lot tougher than it looks, considering their home matches have come against tough road opponents including LAFC, SKC and Atlanta.
Of the five teams with the easiest schedules so far, four sit in the top eight of the Supporters' Shield standings. The team with the easiest schedule so far, Toronto FC, has not been able to take advantage of it as they have been felled by injury woes and used second-string sides because of their run to the final in the Concacaf Champions League. With their schedule toughening up, a run to the top of the Eastern Conference could prove even more difficult.
(thanks to mods for moving this to the correct thread)
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I was about to post this myself. Baer's numbers are different from the ones posted a couple of days ago in yet another thread from a tweet by Viewfrom226. I think the reason is Baer excluded the results between teams. So, for example, when calculating SKC's Home PPG for purposes of NYC it is higher than for anyone else because NYC gave SKC their only home loss. That tends to make NYCs's schedule rate harder, and Toronto's easier, because NYC won a lot and TFC has lost a lot. But however you slice it NYC has had the toughest schedule in the league, and Atlanta the next toughest among East teams that matter (DC has had it rough but don't seem to be that relevant this year). Here's the 226 tweet again for reference:Baer: Who has faced the toughest and easiest schedules so far?
"You are what your record says you are."
The quote above comes from legendary football coach Bill Parcells and it's hard to argue with. There are always other factors in a team's overall production and performance, but when it comes down to it, all that matters is what's in the win, loss and draw columns.
As we enter the final month before the World Cup break, the table is beginning to take shape. The top six in the East have opened up a six-point gap above the playoff line, while Sporting Kansas City and LAFC have separated themselves a bit in the West. Of course, a major factor for some of these teams is the amount of matches played, with Columbus Crew SC already playing 12 and D.C. United sitting at just eight matches played.
While we discuss whether a team is lucky or unlucky, overperforming or underperforming, a major factor in a team's record is what teams they have played to earn it. Some have had the benefit of a home-heavy schedule (like FC Dallas), while Montreal, NYCFC and D.C. have spent a lot of time on the road.
Taking a look at the points per game a team's opponents have averaged so far can tell us who has had the benefit of an easy schedule so far and who has had to endure a tough one.
The figure above averages the points per game a team's opponents have earned, factoring in the differences between home and road performances. It also excludes the result in the match in question. For example, if we were trying to figure out the difficulty of Columbus' schedule and had to get the figure for a home win vs. D.C. United, the number would be .20, not .17 since their away record is 0-4-1 if you take out a loss.
The higher the average, the tougher the schedule. We can see that NYCFC have easily had the toughest schedule, which is no surprise considering they already made trips to Sporting KC, New England, Atlanta, LAFC and Portland. The Galaxy's schedule has been a lot tougher than it looks, considering their home matches have come against tough road opponents including LAFC, SKC and Atlanta.
Of the five teams with the easiest schedules so far, four sit in the top eight of the Supporters' Shield standings. The team with the easiest schedule so far, Toronto FC, has not been able to take advantage of it as they have been felled by injury woes and used second-string sides because of their run to the final in the Concacaf Champions League. With their schedule toughening up, a run to the top of the Eastern Conference could prove even more difficult.
(thanks to mods for moving this to the correct thread)
Again? So this is basically an annual thing now, start Open Cup at RBA vs RBNJ?
(Also, would be hilarious if NYCFC wins this game given that basically all the pundits have predicted RBNJ to win the Open Cup this year.)
I understand they do this regionally because of travel concerns for smaller teams, but it's one of the major reasons the US Open Cup struggles. Every year, we are going to play the Red Bull's until the Cosmos come back. If they come back.
To me, this is a much bigger thing to fix than pro/rel
To me, this is a much bigger thing to fix than pro/rel
They will have to bring in MLS teams a round earlier. Right now they have 20 MLS teams joining in the Round of 32. Soon it'll be 25 MLS teams. They'll have to be brought in during the Round of 64 so every D1 team starts with a lower division matchup.
I honestly don't mind the draw. Sometimes you get a good draw (see Liverpool in UCL). Sometimes you get a poor draw.
It's just boring to play RedBulls every year in this thing. Takes the excitement out of it. Let's all go play Lansdowne Bhoys or Kingston Stockade. Or Boston FC.
It's just boring to play RedBulls every year in this thing. Takes the excitement out of it. Let's all go play Lansdowne Bhoys or Kingston Stockade. Or Boston FC.
So, after Memorial Day we'll be sitting with 24 points after 13 matches played. 5W 0L 0T at home and 2W 3L 3T on the road. We have 21 matches remaining, 12 at home and 9 on the road. We have 5 instances over the course of the season where we play at least 2 matches during a Saturday to Saturday timeframe.
15 of our remaining matches have us favored by 538. 2 more matches have the probability of the home team only higher than us by less than 4 percent. So, we should win a lot during the remainder of the season, at least according to the stats.
If we win all the games we're favored to win that would put our point total at 69, equating what Toronto did last season.
Our road form has been the problem this season. We went 6W 7L 4T last season on the road. In 2016, we went 7W 7L 3T. Luckily, our remaining away games are Chicago, Orlando, Seattle, Toronto, Philadelphia, Columbus, Montreal, Minnesota, D.C. I think we should win at least 6 of those matches.
15 of our remaining matches have us favored by 538. 2 more matches have the probability of the home team only higher than us by less than 4 percent. So, we should win a lot during the remainder of the season, at least according to the stats.
If we win all the games we're favored to win that would put our point total at 69, equating what Toronto did last season.
Our road form has been the problem this season. We went 6W 7L 4T last season on the road. In 2016, we went 7W 7L 3T. Luckily, our remaining away games are Chicago, Orlando, Seattle, Toronto, Philadelphia, Columbus, Montreal, Minnesota, D.C. I think we should win at least 6 of those matches.
This team is poop on the road...hasn’t won a road game since SJE back at the end of March. Of the nine road games I see:
Definite favorites: PHI, MON, MIN, DC
Middle of the road: CHI, ORL
Good luck: SEA, TOR (they will be healthy by then probably), CLB
If they are going to do as well as the last two years on the road they need five more wins to get to seven road wins for the year. Doable, but I honestly don’t know given how god awful they have been on the road, if PV goes, injuries, etc.
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We beat San Jose in late March. SKC was early March.
And I think we can put Seattle as middle of the road, except we play in Orlando the Thursday before that Sunday game in Seattle.
Good catch, last road win was San Jose. I’ve fixed it. Still, the fact that next game is June and their last road win was end of March is concerning.
What a shitty turnaround that is. Play Orlando and then fly to Seattle
That's definitely should be a charter flight from Orlando right after the match on Thursday and land 1 AM or so Friday in Seattle so there's enough recovery time.
Seattle plays at San Jose on Wednesday, so we'll both have a double game week.
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