Try FiveThirtyEight's projections, those account for strength of schedule.
2018 Schedule
- Thread starter Jon
- Start date
Try FiveThirtyEight's projections, those account for strength of schedule.
Thanks. You're a peach. May I ask where you are getting the xG Home/Away data? I can't find it on ASA, unless you're compiling it from the game-by-game table.Don't know if this is the best way to visualize it, but I whipped up some H/A-specific projections just for you.
ASA > Interactive Tables > xGoals > Teams > H/A boxes at the bottom of the sidebar
Thanks. One more question if I can impose. Because it's interactive, I need to download the csv, and there's no way to use an ImportHtml function (or anything similar) to automatically populate my own spreadsheet. Correct? Still, this is a big help. Tanks again.
Updated above for our remaining schedule and added Atlanta and NJ below. A couple of items, Atlanta's schedule really isn't that tough going forward either. At Dallas will be tough, but most of their remaining tough games are at home. NJ has a very tough remaining schedule with 9 remaining games against top 10 teams (they still have games against the top 9 teams, excluding themselves), though most of these are at home, the only ones away are twice at Yankee Stadium and once at Vancouver.
The most interesting thing I find is, all three of us still have a home/away left with Toronto. None of us were lucky to have already had a game with them and we will be the first to. I'm still assuming they will turn it around at some point down the road and will play a lot closer like a top 5 team in the league than their current standing.
Atlanta has:
- At #3 FC Dallas
- Home/Away against #5 Crew
- At #7 NJRB
- Home against #8 NER
- Home against #10 RSL
- Home against #11 Portland
- Home/Away against #14 Orlando
- Home (2) against #15 Chicago
- At #16 Philly
- Home/Away against #18 TFC
- At #19 Montreal
- Home against #20 Seattle
- Home/Away against #21 DCU
- At #22 San Jose
- At #23 Colorado
- Home against #1 Atlanta
- Home against #2 SKC
- Home against #3 FC Dallas
- At (2) #4 NYCFC
- Home against #5 Crew
- Home against #6 LAFC
- Home against #8 NER
- At #9 Vancouver
- Home against #12 Houston
- Home against #15 Orlando
- At #15 Chicago
- At(2) #16 Philly
- Home/Away against #18 TFC
- AT #19 Montreal
- Home against #20 Seattle
- Home/Away(2) against #21 DCU
- At #22 San Jose
I don’t think Toronto is too psyched about having 6 matches left against NYCFC, Atlanta, and RB. Even if they improve their form, that’s a gauntlet for them to face in addition to whatever other teams they have remaining.
Looking at ATL’s schedule, they don’t have that easy of a road. Even some of this home games are gonna be tough against teams that play on synthetic surfaces (NE, Portland, TFC, Seattle) - they lose the nuances inherent to a visiting team not being prepared for how the ball doesn’t stop rolling, bounces, etc. I’d say at least two of those (NE and Portland) could easily be losses and Toronto is a wild card.
This morning I looked at our remaining schedule, considered current home/away records for each remaining game, and calculated PPG for our opponents for each of those. I then averaged those out and came to a 1.30 PPG for our opponents.
Obviously, the above isn't perfect and also doesn't factor in how we perform home/away, but I thought an interesting look at our remaining schedule.
Edit: Also want to note that averaging this out may not be ideal either, as it considers the same weight to each game. This includes a current home PPG of 2 for DCU while they have only played 2 "home" games this year.
Edit 2: I also calculated this for Atlanta (1.25) and NJ (1.50)
Obviously, the above isn't perfect and also doesn't factor in how we perform home/away, but I thought an interesting look at our remaining schedule.
Edit: Also want to note that averaging this out may not be ideal either, as it considers the same weight to each game. This includes a current home PPG of 2 for DCU while they have only played 2 "home" games this year.
Edit 2: I also calculated this for Atlanta (1.25) and NJ (1.50)
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Thanks for this. I tend to agree, though, that an average opponents PPG is a really limited data point. For example, playing Away at opponents with Home PPG of 1.1, 1.45, and 2.8 is very different from 1.4, 1.45, and 1.5, though it is the same average. Still, if you feel like it, I'd appreciate knowing the H/A split of NYC's combined 1.30. I just set out a different type of schedule analysis in my by the numbers post, and it looks like we mostly play the toughest teams at Home, and the weaker teams Away, which is probably for the better.
ETA: also good to see that RB has a fairly tough schedule remaining.
Ugh, I did this pretty roughly on a random excel document earlier today that I have since deleted. I'll probably end up doing it again after this weekend's games, so I can probably give you that breakdown then.
Well you inspired me to search around for a web data source that presents MLS Home and Away records that is suitable for importing into a spreadsheet so I wouldn't have to do data entry. That took a while but I finally found it and the split is the Pigeons will face teams with a Home PPG of 1.60 when NYC is Away, and the opponents have an Away PPG of 1.00 when the Bluebirds are Home.
Following today's match there's a 11 days before our next game. Then the schedule gets kind of crazy.
We have a...
Thursday-Sunday (at Orlando, at Seattle)
Saturday-Wednesday (at Philadelphia, vs. New Jersey)
Saturday-Wednesday-Saturday (at Columbus, vs. New England, vs. DC)
Saturday-Wednesday-Saturday (at Montreal, vs. Chicago, at Minnesota)
It's a very bunched up schedule though when it's not bunched up, there are breaks
We have a...
Thursday-Sunday (at Orlando, at Seattle)
Saturday-Wednesday (at Philadelphia, vs. New Jersey)
Saturday-Wednesday-Saturday (at Columbus, vs. New England, vs. DC)
Saturday-Wednesday-Saturday (at Montreal, vs. Chicago, at Minnesota)
It's a very bunched up schedule though when it's not bunched up, there are breaks
Play 3 games in 6 days and then you're off for 5 weeks. MLS is a joke.
The Yankees have had an insane amount of rainouts this year, but so far all (or nearly all) have been away games. The Yankees were rained out against the Mets last night, but the makeup date is in the midst of a Yankee homestand and so won't displace any NYCFC home games.
It is supposed to rain the rest of the week. The Yankees now go down to Tampa to play 3 against the Rays and then return for a couple of games against Kansas City. If either of the Thursday or Friday games get rained out, they could do a weekend doubleheader (weekend looks nice for the moment) or do something Monday, when both teams are off.
ETA: The only other common date the Yankees and Royals have the rest of the year is September 6, which is in the midst of an NYCFC home stand.
It is supposed to rain the rest of the week. The Yankees now go down to Tampa to play 3 against the Rays and then return for a couple of games against Kansas City. If either of the Thursday or Friday games get rained out, they could do a weekend doubleheader (weekend looks nice for the moment) or do something Monday, when both teams are off.
ETA: The only other common date the Yankees and Royals have the rest of the year is September 6, which is in the midst of an NYCFC home stand.
Nah.
The games in question are Wednesday, September 5th vs. New England and Saturday, September 8th vs. DC.
The Mets come back home on Friday, September 7th for a series against Philadelphia, so Citi Field is out of the question for both matches.
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