2018 Season Points Prediction

[mgarbowski]

American Soccer Analysis published their NYCFC season preview today.
https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2018/2/27/nycfc-2018-season-preview

It is a little vague on predictions, basically saying we will probably make the playoffs and could win the cup, but nothing more specific. But the analysis of last year using analytics is decent.

The Atlanta preview is better, IMO.
https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2018/2/23/atlanta-united-fc-2018-season-preview
It has more discussion of style of play, and how their season was affected by the schedule and the stadium change. There's also a nice discussion of their roster moves.

Toronto isn't up yet.

 

[LionNYC]

American Soccer Analysis published their NYCFC season preview today.
https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2018/2/27/nycfc-2018-season-preview

It is a little vague on predictions, basically saying we will probably make the playoffs and could win the cup, but nothing more specific. But the analysis of last year using analytics is decent.

The Atlanta preview is better, IMO.
https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2018/2/23/atlanta-united-fc-2018-season-preview
It has more discussion of style of play, and how their season was affected by the schedule and the stadium change. There's also a nice discussion of their roster moves.

Toronto isn't up yet.

Here’s the potential starting lineup for City, adjusted to compensate for the size of the pitch at Yankee Stadium.

 

[dummyrun]

Because even the best, most data-intensive modeling of past performance and new additions and other changes will never be more accurate than just assuming Arsenal will finish 4th.

The Law of Bang Averages

 

[dummyrun]

Here’s the potential starting lineup for City, adjusted to compensate for the size of the pitch at Yankee Stadium.

Touchline in the graphic doesn't even have Gator's 10 yard hashmarks smh

 

[mgarbowski]

Just posting a couple links for later reference.

Pre-Season mlssoccer.com Power Rankings: NYCFC ranked #2 behind Toronto
https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018/02/27/mls-power-rankings-2018-preseason

Matt Doyle's Pre-Season Analysis: NYCFC in Tier II
https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018/02/28/armchair-analyst-frontrunners-pack-all-23-mls-teams-tier
Tier 1 is just Toronto. NYCFC is second team mentioned in Tier 2 after Seattle. Atlanta is the only other Tier 2 team.

 

[mgarbowski]

ESPN FC Pre-Season Power Rankings, annoyingly only on video:
http://www.espnfc.us/major-league-soccer/19/video/3400167/mls-power-rankings-will-toronto-fc-repeat
NYCFC ranked 4th behind Toronto, Atlanta and Seattle.

 

[mgarbowski]

Pre-Season Betting Odds: NYCFC 10-1 per Westgate SuperBook:
http://www.espnfc.us/major-league-s...or-league-soccer-no-longer-a-league-of-parity

 

[Ulrich]

Just posting a couple links for later reference.

Pre-Season mlssoccer.com Power Rankings: NYCFC ranked #2 behind Toronto
https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018/02/27/mls-power-rankings-2018-preseason

Matt Doyle's Pre-Season Analysis: NYCFC in Tier II
https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018/02/28/armchair-analyst-frontrunners-pack-all-23-mls-teams-tier
Tier 1 is just Toronto. NYCFC is second team mentioned in Tier 2 after Seattle. Atlanta is the only other Tier 2 team.

Am I missing something, or is Seattle a complete stretch? They made it to MLS Cup last year through a weak Western conference where they finished 2nd and their points would have had them behind the 5th place Eastern team. That’s more of a late hot streak, as the MLsCup so often is, rather than a true indication of their dominance against the league.

They’ve already lost their wunderkind, Jordan Morris, for the entire year, and their talisman, Dempsey, is showing his age. They brought some new players in, but that should always be a wait/see when evaluating overall quality since the time to gel is indeterminate.

Throwing them in as Tier2, directly behind Toronto, appears more token than earned considering NYCFC and Atlanta are clearly better teams while playing in a more competitive conference. Even Chicago should be higher.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Am I missing something, or is Seattle a complete stretch? They made it to MLS Cup last year through a weak Western conference where they finished 2nd and their points would have had them behind the 5th place Eastern team. That’s more of a late hot streak, as the MLsCup so often is, rather than a true indication of their dominance against the league.

They’ve already lost their wunderkind, Jordan Morris, for the entire year, and their talisman, Dempsey, is showing his age. They brought some new players in, but that should always be a wait/see when evaluating overall quality since the time to gel is indeterminate.

Throwing them in as Tier2, directly behind Toronto, appears more token than earned considering NYCFC and Atlanta are clearly better teams while playing in a more competitive conference. Even Chicago should be higher.

I think its a bit of a stretch and mostly because they've been in the previous 2 MLS Cup finals.

Jordan Morris is down with injury, Clint is showing signs of losing a step, they lost Joevin Jones. I do expect more out of Victor Rodriguez, and what is the status on Ozzie?

But I'm not certain I would put Chicago ahead of them. They lost Accam and outside of Katai, didn't add anybody else really. Whereas most other teams added on a ton.

 

[Ulrich]

I think its a bit of a stretch and mostly because they've been in the previous 2 MLS Cup finals.

Jordan Morris is down with injury, Clint is showing signs of losing a step, they lost Joevin Jones. I do expect more out of Victor Rodriguez, and what is the status on Ozzie?

But I'm not certain I would put Chicago ahead of them. They lost Accam and outside of Katai, didn't add anybody else really. Whereas most other teams added on a ton.

Ok, so maybe Chicago shouldn’t be in the discussion either. But Seattle’s inclusion is too much of a head scratcher- Tier 1 is obvious with Toronto. Tier 2 is really just Atlanta and NYCFC - no other teams showed the dominance they did on the field by their play. Seattle goes in Tier 3 until they show they’re an outlier in the West.

 

[mgarbowski]

Ok, so maybe Chicago shouldn’t be in the discussion either. But Seattle’s inclusion is too much of a head scratcher- Tier 1 is obvious with Toronto. Tier 2 is really just Atlanta and NYCFC - no other teams showed the dominance they did on the field by their play. Seattle goes in Tier 3 until they show they’re an outlier in the West.

I think the big factor with the Seattle inclusion is that analysts figure they have to include a West team in or near the top, because even if that conference is much weaker, someone will emerge, get in the final, and then it's a one game dice roll. And even though you're right that Seattle has probably slipped, nobody else in the West seems to have made the moves to emerge as a clear contender for best of the West. It's just a safe, default choice. It can easily be wrong, but there's also no other choice more likely to be right.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Ok, so maybe Chicago shouldn’t be in the discussion either. But Seattle’s inclusion is too much of a head scratcher- Tier 1 is obvious with Toronto. Tier 2 is really just Atlanta and NYCFC - no other teams showed the dominance they did on the field by their play. Seattle goes in Tier 3 until they show they’re an outlier in the West.

Agreed. I think its ultimately a 3-team race, and they are all in the East. And TFC still has a leg up on Atlanta and NYCFC.

The interesting thing though is, that a Western Conference team will ultimately have a better chance at winning the Cup than Atlanta or NYCFC because the road to the final will be easier, and then its just one game.

 

[SoupInNYC]

I think the big factor with the Seattle inclusion is that analysts figure they have to include a West team in or near the top, because even if that conference is much weaker, someone will emerge, get in the final, and then it's a one game dice roll. And even though you're right that Seattle has probably slipped, nobody else in the West seems to have made the moves to emerge as a clear contender for best of the West. It's just a safe, default choice. It can easily be wrong, but there's also no other choice more likely to be right.

Great minds.

 

[Ulrich]

I think the big factor with the Seattle inclusion is that analysts figure they have to include a West team in or near the top, because even if that conference is much weaker, someone will emerge, get in the final, and then it's a one game dice roll. And even though you're right that Seattle has probably slipped, nobody else in the West seems to have made the moves to emerge as a clear contender for best of the West. It's just a safe, default choice. It can easily be wrong, but there's also no other choice more likely to be right.

If it’s a roll of the dice, LAG looks good on paper with their additions and the utter headscratching of how their talent couldn’t gel in the past. Getting rid of Zardes was the most addition by subtraction in the entire league.

 

[Seven]

If it’s a roll of the dice, LAG looks good on paper with their additions and the utter headscratching of how their talent couldn’t gel in the past. Getting rid of Zardes was the most addition by subtraction in the entire league.

More then getting rid of Pirlo?