After This Week, 3 Points Seperates 3rd From 9th(us) In The East

NYCFCFan10

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Mar 23, 2014
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Team/Points/Games Played

1 D.C. United ------------ ------35 21
2 New York Red Bulls --------26 18
3 Toronto FC ------------------ 24 17
4 Orlando City SC -------------24 19
5 Columbus Crew SC --------24 19
6 New England Revolution --24 21
7 Philadelphia Union -------- 22 20
8 Montreal Impact ----------- 21 16
9 New York City FC ---------- 21 19
10 Chicago Fire --------------- 18 17

Madness.

Shame we couldn't beat Toronto today. We'd be tied with them right now if we did, they obviously have a few games in hand on us though.
 
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Rest of the season (with assumed result): @New England (W), Orlando (W), Montreal (W), @Red Bulls (W), DC (T), @Columbus (T), @LA (L), Columbus (W), @Dallas (L), Toronto (W), SJ (W), @Vancouver (T), @DC (L), @Orlando (W), New England (W). That's 31 additional points, leaving us at the end of the season with 51.
- 11 Conference Games
- 15 Total Games
 
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Rest of the season (with assumed result): @New England (W), Orlando (W), Montreal (W), @Red Bulls (W), DC (T), @Columbus (T), @LA (L), Columbus (W), @Dallas (L), SJ (W), @Vancouver (T), @DC (L), @Orlando (W), New England (W). That's 27 additional points, leaving us at the end of the season with 48.
- 10 Conference Games
- 14 Total Games
There are 15 games left. You left out Toronto Away on September 12.
For the 14 you covered, you have us earning 1.92 PPG.
For reference, we're at 1.11 for the year. Our best stretch of the season is the current stretch dating back 7 games in which we're at exactly 2 PPG. This stretch began right after the low point when we were at 0.58 PPG.
You're projecting, then, that we will nearly match our best 7-game stretch over twice that amount of games and against better quality opponents. Which is possible with our reinforcements but it's still extremely optimistic I think.
And hey, why not be optimistic.
It should also put us firmly in the playoffs. I project the cutoff to be around 42 pts.
 
You're projecting, then, that we will nearly match our best 7-game stretch over twice that amount of games and against better quality opponents. Which is possible with our reinforcements but it's still extremely optimistic I think.
The first half team is nowhere near as good as our second half team will (hopefully) be. Watching Angelino in the second half yesterday was a sheer treat. Quality. Plus, Pirlo and Lampard as well, and Mix coming back too.

So yeah, I'm at least one person who's optimistic. Three points to 3rd, but also only five points to 2nd. It can be done.
 
There are 15 games left. You left out Toronto Away on September 12.
For the 14 you covered, you have us earning 1.92 PPG.
For reference, we're at 1.11 for the year. Our best stretch of the season is the current stretch dating back 7 games in which we're at exactly 2 PPG. This stretch began right after the low point when we were at 0.58 PPG.
You're projecting, then, that we will nearly match our best 7-game stretch over twice that amount of games and against better quality opponents. Which is possible with our reinforcements but it's still extremely optimistic I think.
And hey, why not be optimistic.
It should also put us firmly in the playoffs. I project the cutoff to be around 42 pts.
Have you run results dependent simulations of the rest of the year? I would guess you're right about the cutoff line, but I am curious if anyone has actually modeled out how what we need to accomplish in a manner that factors in our opponents results.

In case I'm not being very clear what I'm asking about, I'm just trying to get at whether anyone's predictions about playoff cutoff lines factor in the fact that if we don't get three, the other club will be getting at least one and as many as three. Shit. Probably still not clear on what I'm asking. Maybe I'll take on this modeling thing. Basically, I want a scenario generator. Building it will be a bitch due to all of the variables though, and as I established elsewhere, I'm pretty lazy.
 
I want you to build the Midas Mulligan MLS Simulator ("MMMS") but if you are too lazy I would probably settle for MLS configuring the schedule in a such a way that the table/conference standings don't have four game disparities littered throughout. Then I could at least have some idea of where we stand today before speculating about where we are going the rest of the season.

(The feasibility of scheduling in this way was discussed in the Small Things That Would Make MLS Better thread)
 
I want you to build the Midas Mulligan MLS Simulator ("MMMS")
Well, I was going to try to come up with a great acronym for this software with the initials HEYBABY but crap, two Ys? Really? So then I was going to come with a great reason I couldn't be bothered to do this that used the initials LAZY but it has a Z and a Y in it so basically I just gave up before I even started.

True to the traditions of the forum! (Hey, I too am here all week.)
 
Here we go. Don't have time to dig into their methods, as I'm about to take off and lose web access. But check this out. Hint: it's not pretty.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/mls/nycityfcstandings.html

Here's our magic numbers by playoff spot. DNCD means does not control destiny for the spot (playoff seeds 1-3 for us).
NY City FC 5 8 6 21 DNCD DNCD DNCD 15 14 13
 
Have you run results dependent simulations of the rest of the year? I would guess you're right about the cutoff line, but I am curious if anyone has actually modeled out how what we need to accomplish in a manner that factors in our opponents results.

In case I'm not being very clear what I'm asking about, I'm just trying to get at whether anyone's predictions about playoff cutoff lines factor in the fact that if we don't get three, the other club will be getting at least one and as many as three. Shit. Probably still not clear on what I'm asking. Maybe I'll take on this modeling thing. Basically, I want a scenario generator. Building it will be a bitch due to all of the variables though, and as I established elsewhere, I'm pretty lazy.
Nothing that complicated. When we get closer to the end season and the variables decrease I might add that level of sophistication
Right now my projection is based on 2 quite simple calculations. That they happen to line up gives me some confidence. In any event, I'm not convinced that doing more work would increase my confidence.
First, right now the PPG standings look like this:
Screen Shot 2015-07-13 at 9.34.23 AM.png
Second, last year in the East, the sixth place team had 42 points and 7th place had 41. I know there have been major changes since then but the similarity makes me think it will stick. I've been calculating the cutoff using the above table for a few weeks and this is the highest it has been although I neglected to keep records. I do know this is the first time it has gotten this close to 43. If it stays up another week or two I'll revise the estimate higher but for now I'm comfortable saying 42. I'm also keeping it at 42 because two teams are at 1.26 right now, they are both above the line, and we only need to climb over one of them. The projection is a simple multiplier of PPG times 34.

Factors that could move it upwards include more East wins over West teams; fewer ties than normal; and if the top six east teams start pulling away from the bottom four. At this point I see no reason to predict any of those happening.
 
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Basically, we need 24 points to get to a place where it is more likely than not that we make the playoffs. 27 points makes us a virtual lock. I'm a bit unclear as to how they treat ties in this model. And I dont like that it doesn't give us a game by game look at the rest of the year. I have decided you'd need a supercomputer to figure that shit out, though.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/mls/nycityfcwhatif.html
 
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Here we go. Don't have time to dig into their methods, as I'm about to take off and lose web access. But check this out. Hint: it's not pretty.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/mls/nycityfcstandings.html

Here's our magic numbers by playoff spot. DNCD means does not control destiny for the spot (playoff seeds 1-3 for us).
NY City FC 5 8 6 21 DNCD DNCD DNCD 15 14 13
Interesting. I'd like to know more about this calculation in their model: "All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths."
Is that their subjective assessment? Based on PPG to date? Or GD to date? Some combination of multiple factors? And do they factor in mid-season personnel changes?
 
Interesting. I'd like to know more about this calculation in their model: "All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths."
Is that their subjective assessment? Based on PPG to date? Or GD to date? SOme combination of multiple factors? And do they factor in mid-season personnel changes?
Yeah, I'm betting no to the personnel changes, as there wouldn't be a way to quantify any position. It has to be based on some measure of results to date. One would hope they used expected goals/allowed, but I bet it's not that refined. Probably a mean analysis of gpg and gag.
 
Rest of the season (with assumed result): @New England (W), Orlando (W), Montreal (W), @Red Bulls (W), DC (T), @Columbus (T), @LA (L), Columbus (W), @Dallas (L), SJ (W), @Vancouver (T), @DC (L), @Orlando (W), New England (W). That's 27 additional points, leaving us at the end of the season with 48.
- 10 Conference Games
- 14 Total Games

some of these are super optimistic. #concerned
 
Yeah, I'm betting no to the personnel changes, as there wouldn't be a way to quantify any position. It has to be based on some measure of results to date. One would hope they used expected goals/allowed, but I bet it's not that refined. Probably a mean analysis of gpg and gag.
Probably, and maybe with a Home/Away spit added.
 
There are 15 games left. You left out Toronto Away on September 12.
For the 14 you covered, you have us earning 1.92 PPG.
For reference, we're at 1.11 for the year. Our best stretch of the season is the current stretch dating back 7 games in which we're at exactly 2 PPG. This stretch began right after the low point when we were at 0.58 PPG.
You're projecting, then, that we will nearly match our best 7-game stretch over twice that amount of games and against better quality opponents. Which is possible with our reinforcements but it's still extremely optimistic I think.
And hey, why not be optimistic.
It should also put us firmly in the playoffs. I project the cutoff to be around 42 pts.

At Dallas on the 12. Home Toronto on the 16th. And I BELIEVE WE'LL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS!
 
Nothing that complicated. When we get closer to the end season and the variables decrease I might add that level of sophistication
Right now my projection is based on 2 quite simple calculations. That they happen to line up gives me some confidence. In any event, I'm not convinced that doing more work would increase my confidence.
First, right now the PPG standings look like this:
View attachment 2997
Second, last year in the East, the sixth place team had 42 points and 7th place had 41. I know there have been major changes since then but the similarity makes me think it will stick. I've been calculating the cutoff using the above table for a few weeks and this is the highest it has been although I neglected to keep records. I do know this is the first time it has gotten this close to 43. If it stays up another week or two I'll revise the estimate higher but for now I'm comfortable saying 42. I'm also keeping it at 42 because two teams are at 1.26 right now, they are both above the line, and we only need to climb over one of them. The projection is a simple multiplier of PPG times 34.

Factors that could move it upwards include more East wins over West teams; fewer ties than normal; and if the top six east teams start pulling away from the bottom four. At this point I see no reason to predict any of those happening.
Great analysis.

Current points = 21 on 19 games played
Needed points = 21 on 15 games remaining
PPG needed = 1.4

That PPG is on par with TFC, a little below NJ, and a little better than MTL and SJ.

So can we be equal to or better than TFC, NJ, MTL, SJ for the rest of the season - granted against better competition?
 
Great analysis.

Current points = 21 on 19 games played
Needed points = 21 on 15 games remaining
PPG needed = 1.4

That PPG is on par with TFC, a little below NJ, and a little better than MTL and SJ.

So can we be equal to or better than TFC, NJ, MTL, SJ for the rest of the season - granted against better competition?
Just be careful not to get too attached to the specific number 42. I try to carefully say "around 42" and for good reason. In my head I think it means I have high confidence the number will be between 40 and 44, and very high confidence it will be 39-45. It's kind of like when real statisticians say things like there is an 80% chance results will be between x and y, and 95% chance between a broader range. Except mine is much, much less scientific. So if you want to translate my projection into high confidence we make the playoffs, target for 45-46. And if even that is wrong, I'll give you twice your money back for my analyses.
 
Just be careful not to get too attached to the specific number 42. I try to carefully say "around 42" and for good reason. In my head I think it means I have high confidence the number will be between 40 and 44, and very high confidence it will be 39-45. It's kind of like when real statisticians say things like there is an 80% chance results will be between x and y, and 95% chance between a broader range. Except mine is much, much less scientific. So if you want to translate my projection into high confidence we make the playoffs, target for 45-46. And if even that is wrong, I'll give you twice your money back for my analyses.
:)
Feel like I'm back in stats class. Point well taken (and well made).
 
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