MLS Cup Playoffs 2018 - Knockout Round

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WEDNESDAY
New York City vs. Philadelphia 7 PM (FS1, Unimas)
Dallas vs. Portland 9 PM (Unimas)

THURSDAY
DC vs. Columbus 8 PM (FS1, Unimas)
LAFC vs. Salt Lake 10:30 PM (ESPN2, Unimas)
 
All 4 home teams should do the business in the knockout round

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The only team that seems remotely safe to me is LAFC. Of course nobody is completely safe.

Philly has been one of the hottest teams in the league to end the season.

Columbus & DC are even on points for the year, and Portland & Dallas are only 3 points apart.
 
Philly has been one of the hottest teams in the league to end the season.

Let's start with the beginning of September for Philly, shall we?

9/1 Draw 2-2 @ ORL - Not exactly a league powerhouse
9/16 Loss 4-1 @ home to MTL. - 4-1 at home?
9/19 Won 1-0 @ Seattle - went cross country on 3 days rest and beat a very good team at a hard place to play. Well done.
9/23 Won 2-0 @ home to SKC. Beat the top team in the West. It was at home, but still a good result.

I think after these 2 results is when the pundits (and some people on the forums) started to wax poetic about Philly.

9/26 Loss 3-1 @ HOU. Again, a blowout to a MLS minnow.
9/29 Draw 0-0 @ CLB. Fighting for a playoff spot, they got a tough away point.
10/6 Won 5-1 @ home to MIN. Who doesn't beat Minnesota at home?
10/21 Loss 1-0 @ home to NJ. Then needed points at home to have a chance at the 3 seed. They blew it.
10/28 Loss 3-1 @ NYC. We'd been struggling to find our form, just got our butts handed to us in DC, and starting a MF who'd been out for months with what was assumed a season ending injury. We chased them out of the building in the first 15 minutes.

So, 4 out of their last 15 possible points in the past month (.8 ppg). 11 of their last 27 in the last 2 months (1.22 ppg).

Now please tell me how this is "one of the hottest teams in the league to end the season"?

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Let's start with the beginning of September for Philly, shall we?

9/1 Draw 2-2 @ ORL - Not exactly a league powerhouse
9/16 Loss 4-1 @ home to MTL. - 4-1 at home?
9/19 Won 1-0 @ Seattle - went cross country on 3 days rest and beat a very good team at a hard place to play. Well done.
9/23 Won 2-0 @ home to SKC. Beat the top team in the West. It was at home, but still a good result.

I think after these 2 results is when the pundits (and some people on the forums) started to wax poetic about Philly.

9/26 Loss 3-1 @ HOU. Again, a blowout to a MLS minnow.
9/29 Draw 0-0 @ CLB. Fighting for a playoff spot, they got a tough away point.
10/6 Won 5-1 @ home to MIN. Who doesn't beat Minnesota at home?
10/21 Loss 1-0 @ home to NJ. Then needed points at home to have a chance at the 3 seed. They blew it.
10/28 Loss 3-1 @ NYC. We'd been struggling to find our form, just got our butts handed to us in DC, and starting a MF who'd been out for months with what was assumed a season ending injury. We chased them out of the building in the first 15 minutes.

So, 4 out of their last 15 possible points in the past month (.8 ppg). 11 of their last 27 in the last 2 months (1.22 ppg).

Now please tell me how this is "one of the hottest teams in the league to end the season"?

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They had a superb run up until the last 2 games. After opening with just 8 points in 9 games, they got 42 points in the next 23.
Another way to look at it is they won 29 points in the second half playing 8 Home and 9 Away (and that includes the final 2 losses). League wonders DC won 33 points in the second half playing 13 Home and 4 Away. Basically, with 5 additional home games, DC won 4 just more points than Philly in the second half.

Now I realize your point was the finish, and Philly lost the last 2. There's no getting around that. But they had a hell of a second half, probably better than anyone but Red Bulls, Seattle, and maybe SKC.
 
They had a superb run up until the last 2 games. After opening with just 8 points in 9 games, they got 42 points in the next 23.
Another way to look at it is they won 29 points in the second half playing 8 Home and 9 Away (and that includes the final 2 losses). League wonders DC won 33 points in the second half playing 13 Home and 4 Away. Basically, with 5 additional home games, DC won 4 just more points than Philly in the second half.

Now I realize your point was the finish, and Philly lost the last 2. There's no getting around that. But they had a hell of a second half, probably better than anyone but Red Bulls, Seattle, and maybe SKC.

So really what happened is a tale of 3 seasons:

1. 8 points in 9 games
2. 31 points in 16 games
3. 11 points in 9 games

Seems like they hit a crazy hot streak of 2+ ppg for their second act. and then came back down to earth to the same pace as the 1st 1/4 of the season. It's not just the last 2 matches is my real point.
 
My post on Philly being a hot team was based on my recollection of the two posts below (from the Running with the Numbers thread). Those were before the last two games, but I think are worthwhile.

(emphasis added)

Over the last 7 games, DC has 17 points, which is best in the league.

Over the last 12 games, DC has 26 points, which is second to Seattle (30) and tied with Philly and Atlanta.

DC has played only 4 Away games since Rooney showed up and they have not won any of them. They last won a road game in May, against San Jose, which barely counts. That was in fact their only road win. Of course almost all their road games were pre-Rooney, but the fact they they are winless even in just 4 games since he got here plus that they have played so few, gives me hope that their prowess and comfort at home won't travel. Hell, if I had even a little confidence that NYCFC could score a first half goal I would take on DC with no hesitation. Punch them in the nose early away from their new stadium and fans and I expect they fade. But even at its best NYC didn't score a lot early this year, so it's a concern, but I still think DC has to prove it can succeed away from Audi Field.

Now, comparison time:
DC is 9-2-3 for 30 points in its last 14 games, playing 11 Home 3 Away.
Philadelphia is 9-3-2 for 29 points in its last 14 games, playing 6 Home 8 Away.
The Union second half is much more impressive than that of DC, especially when judging how they will do in a road knockout game. DC won just 1 additional point while playing 5 more Home games. It's really not close. DC is getting all the attention but Philly is killing it over the same time period and getting comparatively no love. The Union even won at Audi Field.
No team in the East is hotter than Philly since July. I don't want any part of Philadelphia, Home or Away.

I have nothing substantive or rational to say about the Crew except I fear the scary positive voodoo karma of the suddenly rejuvenated staying-in-Columbus Crew. ETA: who also are playing for one last hurrah for a coach leaving to become USMNT skipper. Really, this is a made-for-TV movie. Stay far away.

Bottom line, give me DC, as long as we play at Yankee Stadium.
 
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My post on Philly being a hot team was based on my recollection of the two posts below (from the Running with the Numbers thread). Those were before the last two games, but I think are worthwhile.

(emphasis added)

When was this written? Philly is 1-3-1 for 4 points in their last 5 games & 3-4-2 for 11 points in their last 9 games.

I think the conclusion we can all draw is mgarbowski mgarbowski is gaslighting the forum.
 
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When was this written? Philly is 1-3-1 for 4 points in their last 5 games & 3-4-2 for 11 points in their last 9 games.

I think the conclusion we can all draw is mgarbowski mgarbowski is gaslighting the forum.
As noted, it was written before their last 2 games. So, before they lost to the Supporters’ Shield winner and then us, they had the 2nd most points in the league over a 12-game stretch.
 
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As noted, it was written before their last 2 games. So, before they lost to the Supporters’ Shield winner and then us, they had the 2nd most points in the league over a 12-game stretch.

Lost to NJ at home don’t forget. In a must win game for home field. And now that we have more info to draw upon, we can also conclude that they are in the same funk over the last 9 matches as they were the first 9 matches of the season. We’d be screaming bloody murder if NYC ended the season like they did.
 
Lost to NJ at home don’t forget. In a must win game for home field. And now that we have more info to draw upon, we can also conclude that they are in the same funk over the last 9 matches as they were the first 9 matches of the season. We’d be screaming bloody murder if NYC ended the season like they did.
In their last nine games Philadelphia beat DC United in Audi Field, beat the Sounders in Seattle, and SKC (West leaders) in Chester. Those are the three hottest teams to finish the season, and nobody else but the Red Bulls won at Audi. Sure, those are their only 3 wins in the last 9, and in the final 2 games they lost at Home to the Supporters Shield winner and second best road team in the league, and Away to the third best Home team. But I'd take that resume in a heartbeat over what we did in the last 9 (beating just Philly and Chicago, both at home). Really, apart from us beating them, they finished the last quarter of the season stronger than we did. Even with us beating them, they won more points in the final 9.

But beat them we did, because we do usually win at home. And I expect we'll do so again, but because of that, not because they are in bad form.
 
In their last nine games Philadelphia beat DC United in Audi Field, beat the Sounders in Seattle, and SKC (West leaders) in Chester. Those are the three hottest teams to finish the season, and nobody else but the Red Bulls won at Audi. Sure, those are their only 3 wins in the last 9, and in the final 2 games they lost at Home to the Supporters Shield winner and second best road team in the league, and Away to the third best Home team. But I'd take that resume in a heartbeat over what we did in the last 9 (beating just Philly and Chicago, both at home). Really, apart from us beating them, they finished the last quarter of the season stronger than we did. Even with us beating them, they won more points in the final 9.

But beat them we did, because we do usually win at home. And I expect we'll do so again, but because of that, not because they are in bad form.

You’re glossing over drawing with Orlando, getting blown out at home to Montreal, and getting blown out at Houston. You want to say they had some tent pole wins. I’ll give you that. But then the best I’ll give you back is they have been highly inconsistent in the last quarter. Winning the games they probably shouldn’t and losing the games they should have won. And now they’ve lost the last 2 matches you’re saying they shouldn’t have won anyway. The same types of matches you gave them all the credit for. If they aren’t winning those anymore, what kind of team are they?
 
You’re glossing over drawing with Orlando, getting blown out at home to Montreal, and getting blown out at Houston. You want to say they had some tent pole wins. I’ll give you that. But then the best I’ll give you back is they have been highly inconsistent in the last quarter. Winning the games they probably shouldn’t and losing the games they should have won. And now they’ve lost the last 2 matches you’re saying they shouldn’t have won anyway. The same types of matches you gave them all the credit for. If they aren’t winning those anymore, what kind of team are they?
I agree, but what kind of team are we? Neither team excelled in the final quarter. They have the edge in quality wins and points overall (in those 9 games). We have the edge in head to head. My point is it's basically a wash and I expect to win because we're home.
 
I agree, but what kind of team are we? Neither team excelled in the final quarter. They have the edge in quality wins and points overall (in those 9 games). We have the edge in head to head. My point is it's basically a wash and I expect to win because we're home.

I don’t want to start making excuses for us. But I looked back at our record in the last 1/4 and we really were hit hard by both the injury bug and international call ups over that’s entire span. Our lone home loss to NE was in the last 1/4. We dominated the match, but a late goal on one of their only chances stole them the victory. I don’t think we had 18 men to dress that game. Sands started (which I loved, but still). We have a full squad. We look fit and rested with all that time off that no other team had. And had 2 matches to shake the rust off we saw in DC. What’s kind of team are we? We’re a sleeping giant who just woke up in time for the party.
 
I don’t want to start making excuses for us. But I looked back at our record in the last 1/4 and we really were hit hard by both the injury bug and international call ups over that’s entire span. Our lone home loss to NE was in the last 1/4. We dominated the match, but a late goal on one of their only chances stole them the victory. I don’t think we had 18 men to dress that game. Sands started (which I loved, but still). We have a full squad. We look fit and rested with all that time off that no other team had. And had 2 matches to shake the rust off we saw in DC. What’s kind of team are we? We’re a sleeping giant who just woke up in time for the party.
I absolutely love your glistening optimism!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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