MLS Week 24 - 2017

[Gotham Gator]

Kickoff is tonight with one midweek game that is an important one for Pigeon fans as Chicago travels to Montreal.

Friday night has a big game on FS1 as New Jersey travels into Portland.

Saturday night features two huge matchups that impact the top of the standings in each conference - neither on national TV.
- Toronto at Chicago
- Dallas at Sporting KC

Our game against New England is one of two on Sunday.

The other is Seattle hosting Minnesota at 10pm on FS1.

 

[Shawn Ryu]

Chicago looks utter dog shit and thats good for us.

 

[Ulrich]

Chicago looks utter dog shit and thats good for us.

Chicago 2015 is back. Holy hell!!!

 

[mgarbowski]

I want 2017 Chicago back against Toronto.

 

[Ulrich]

I want 2017 back against Toronto.

Remember when I said Toronto gets to play Montreal 3 more times?!?! We only have them once more. This could get very interesting.

 

[Fake Jew]

People were calling me stupid for calling Chicago a ticking time bomb although, I thought they would regress with a Schweini injury not their whole defense getting injured.

 

[Ulrich]

People were calling me stupid for calling Chicago a ticking time bomb although, I thought they would regress with a Schweini injury not their whole defense getting injured.

The start of their tailspin coincides with the loss to us. They did tie Portland one game before, but since playing NYCFC they've only won once and lost a few others. Their spirits had to have been crushed losing so thoroughly to us while having a man advantage in the heat.

 

[mgarbowski]

Remember when I said Toronto gets to play Montreal 3 more times?!?! We only have them once more. This could get very interesting.

Let's see TFC show some signs catching this Chicago flu and we'll have something.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

Whenever you guys are done licking your own popsicles, the fact is, Montreal decided to git gud.

Chicago is not now nor have they ever been that good anywhere but in points (strange, but true). Maybe that's not the right way to put it, but they certainly aren't a scary matchup outside of Accam.

I think they could also be dealing with the fact that they are old and chased the game against us. Definitely hurt some of our guys, so possibly them, too.

Montreal will be the more dangerous playoff team if they make it. To me, both ATL and MTL would be scarier playoff matchups than RBNJ or Chicago.

 

[Fake Jew]

Whenever you guys are done licking your own popsicles, the fact is, Montreal decided to git gud.

Chicago is not now nor have they ever been that good anywhere but in points (strange, but true). Maybe that's not the right way to put it, but they certainly aren't a scary matchup outside of Accam.

I think they could also be dealing with the fact that they are old and chased the game against us. Definitely hurt some of our guys, so possibly them, too.

Montreal will be the more dangerous playoff team if they make it. To me, both ATL and MTL would be scarier playoff matchups than RBNJ or Chicago.

Agreed. Dzemaili is this Montreal teams Lodeiro. He's making that attack click.

 

[mgarbowski]

Chicago has the best home record in the league, and the second worst road record among all playoff teams in both conferences. Houston has the worst. Their recent slide has coincided not just with a ton of injuries to their defenders, but with a stretch of 4 games away out of five. They won the home game and lost every road game. So it's hard to figure what we learned from the slide that we didn't already know.

They have 6H and 4A remaining, including 4 of the next 5 at home. If they revert to winning the home games the slide was a scheduling quirk. If they start losing at home it is bigger. They do look bad, and this stretch includes hosting TFC and RB, plus another away at Montreal.

Montreal's 3 game win streak sandwiched 2 home games against an away win at 9th place Philadelphia. So that's a factor but they do appear to be improved. And watch -- 4 of their next 5 are at home with the sole away game at New England. This could be a long run for them, before they finish with 2H and 4A.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Whenever you guys are done licking your own popsicles, the fact is, Montreal decided to git gud.

Chicago is not now nor have they ever been that good anywhere but in points (strange, but true). Maybe that's not the right way to put it, but they certainly aren't a scary matchup outside of Accam.

I think they could also be dealing with the fact that they are old and chased the game against us. Definitely hurt some of our guys, so possibly them, too.

Montreal will be the more dangerous playoff team if they make it. To me, both ATL and MTL would be scarier playoff matchups than RBNJ or Chicago.

Can I lick my own popsicle and also agree that Montreal is good?

I definitely wouldn't count Montreal out quite yet. They have quite a few draws already this year, compared to Columbus who has only drawn once.

Honestly, I think Montreal still takes a playoff spot. They're not as terrible as their current place in the table stands. They have Piatti recently brought on and are assimilating Dzemaili (whatever his name is) and sounds like they may bring in Sneijder. They have some other decent pieces on that squad as well.

Additionally, they have at least two games in hand on everyone except for Philly.

For fun, compare them to Columbus:
Columbus has 8 wins, 9 losses, 1 draw, and a GD of -1
Montreal has 4 wins, 5 losses, 6 draws and a GD of -2

I know there is something to closing out games and getting wins, but if Columbus converts wins and losses into draws and Montreal does the opposite, their point totals look much more similar.

I'm still sticking with my original Eastern playoff predictions: NYC, Toronto, Chicago, Atlanta, NJRB, Montreal (not necessarily in that order, but I wasn't not going to put NYC at the front).

ETA: above quoted post from 6/27

 

[Midas Mulligan]

Can I lick my own popsicle and also agree that Montreal is good?



ETA: above quoted post from 6/27

I was just busting balls. I remembered you had been on the MTL train.

mgarbowski - I understand your post intra, and you bring up some good points. But there's a decent argument to be made that
1- MTL underperformed all year.
2- They are just now really gelling with a very high quality midfield addition.
3 - (I want to think about this and tease it out more, as it's a theory I'm marinating) Maybe we all over-rate the importance of what MLS teams you are getting results against, and actually the results themselves speak more loudly.

 

[mgarbowski]

I was just busting balls. I remembered you had been on the MTL train.

mgarbowski - I understand your post intra, and you bring up some good points. But there's a decent argument to be made that
1- MTL underperformed all year.
2- They are just now really gelling with a very high quality midfield addition.
3 - (I want to think about this and tease it out more, as it's a theory I'm marinating) Maybe we all over-rate the importance of what MLS teams you are getting results against, and actually the results themselves speak more loudly.

I'm actually not much of a fan of rating wins or losses by who a team played. One of my least favorite tropes is when someone dismisses a rival team's recent success because of who they played in those games. Every team plays a schedule with lots of fluff. You still have to play and win. When rating NYCFC in my head I hardly take opponents into account because I see every game and I base my opinions directly on how the team played. The opponent plays a minor role adding a discount or bonus probably worth about 5% if I put a number on it (which I don't). But for other teams I watch an occasional game, usually in the 20 minute minicast, and I need other inputs. And there I tend to bias things in favor of rival teams. So in the post you're reacting to, my main point is Chicago might not be as much of a dumpster fire as they appear, because they've been poor on the road all year despite their record, and the losing 4 of 5 perfectly lined up with playing the same 4 of 5 away. I would have expected them to get at least a draw in one of them, but this is not enough of a variance, especially with the injuries they had, to convince me this skid means too much. If it extends into their next slate of home games I will trust it more.
With Montreal I went the other way (or at least meant to convey that) but it's actually the same pro-opponent bias: they won 3 in a row, they look good, the 3 came in a modestly favorable schedule but if you think that's important expect more of the same because they have 4 of 5 at home coming up.
All of which is consistent with my usual outlook, which I think is pretty consistent: I never assume a rival team will start playing worse than it's record to date. Never. Even if they start a bad streak I assume they will revert to the mean until it becomes so substantial that it moves the mean. In this way I am only pleasantly surprised, except for those other occasions where a team starts playing much better than it has to date which I also might not expect, but then I tend to move my expectation more quickly in that direction once a trend starts.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Cows and the Trees tonight at 10pm.

We will see how New Jersey plays after going 120 minutes 3 nights ago and then traveling cross country. I wouldn't put it past them to show well - they are peaking right now.

 

[LionNYC]

Come on Rose City.

34 minutes until New Jersey B plays.

 

[Ulrich]

Come on Rose City.

34 minutes until New Jersey B plays.

RB has a throwaway lineup out there. Portland has to blitz them early so Marsch is faced with early subs to plug the damn

 

[LionNYC]

Halftime in Portland and it's 0-0

Collin was subbed out with a foot injury as he was unable to run. Red Bulls have blamed the turf.

 

[LeeNYCFC]

Such trash. Hopefully some kind of discipline coming his way (call in game went against Portland). Also Klestjan had a nasty incident late shoving somebody into the ad boards, could see some punishment as well.

https://twitter.com/x/status/898741860809797632

 

[Shawn Ryu]

Well, not everyone can be Jimmy Glass Luis.