MLS Week 4 - 2018

[LionNYC]

SATURDAY
New England Revolution vs. New York City FC 1:30 PM
FC Dallas vs. Portland Timbers 3:30 PM
Columbus Crew SC vs. D.C. United 6 PM
Red Bulls vs. Minnesota United FC 7 PM
Colorado Rapids vs. Sporting Kansas City 9 PM
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. LA Galaxy 10 PM

FiveThirtyEight Predictions

 

[adam]

SATURDAY
New England Revolution vs. New York City FC 1:30 PM
FC Dallas vs. Portland Timbers 3:30 PM
Columbus Crew SC vs. D.C. United 6 PM
Red Bulls vs. Minnesota United FC 7 PM
Colorado Rapids vs. Sporting Kansas City 9 PM
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. LA Galaxy 10 PM

FiveThirtyEight Predictions
View attachment 8419

We’re the only team favored away.

 

[LionNYC]

We’re the only team favored away.

How about this? No respect. Still behind Toronto and Atlanta in terms of MLS Cup victory percentage, but still first in Supporters' Shield.

 

[mgarbowski]

Me: I will never see anything more pointless than complaining about Power Rankings.
Also me: someone is complaining about a lack of respect from an algorithm.

 

[TabascoDiva]

We’re the only team favored away.

AAAdorable !

 

[Gotham Gator]

The 538 ratings are just ridiculous. Atlanta is rated high just because they spent so much on Barco. On field results are pretty much ignored.

 

[mgarbowski]

The 538 ratings are just ridiculous. Atlanta is rated high just because they spent so much on Barco. On field results are pretty much ignored.

I think what's driving it even more than that is last year's goal differential. Toronto (37) and Atlanta (30) lapped NYCFC (13). 2-3 games in 2018 aren't near enough to overcome that and move the SPI ranking.
At the other end of things you have this site which we have noted here before:
http://playoffstatus.com/mls/easternstandings.html
They have Toronto with a 64% chance of missing the playoffs, because they apparently account for this year's results with minimal input from prior seasons. That's obviously wrong, but I expect both algorithms to better reflect reality as the season gets to 8-10 games at least.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

I think what's driving it even more than that is last year's goal differential. Toronto (37) and Atlanta (30) lapped NYCFC (13). 2-3 games in 2018 aren't near enough to overcome that and move the SPI ranking.
At the other end of things you have this site which we have noted here before:
http://playoffstatus.com/mls/easternstandings.html
They have Toronto with a 64% chance of missing the playoffs, because they apparently account for this year's results with minimal input from prior seasons. That's obviously wrong, but I expect both algorithms to better reflect reality as the season gets to 8-10 games at least.

The 538 thing is weird. But I think it’s the most powerful after a large sample size. For example, look at their Euro Club ratings. It’s a dead heat between 4-6 clubs as to who is best, and my eyes say the same thing.

Of course, maybe that makes it less good? Who know?

The great thing about all of this is that it doesn’t count for a single point in the standings. Just fun for us. The more sites and shitty predictions, the better.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Top 10 Plays of the Week.

Khiry Shelton involved in #2 and #3.

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018...week-4-2018-season-top-10-plays?autoplay=true