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Race for CCL Spot 2019

Discussion in 'Team News and Rumors' started by adam, Dec 9, 2017.

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Based on the Language in the CONCACAF Document, Have We Qualified For the 2019 CCL? - Moot Poll Now

  1. Yes - We Qualified

    23 vote(s)
    85.2%
  2. No - We Did Not Qualify

    4 vote(s)
    14.8%
  1. mgarbowski

    mgarbowski Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Atlanta has a 5 of 6 Away stretch in late August and all of September. So their schedule will be in a favorable (for them) H/A imbalance all summer. They also finish in Toronto.
     
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  2. canchon

    canchon Active Member Seasoned Supporter

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    They got points out of away matches at SKC, NE and ATL. Most likely top 10 (SKC and ATL top 5) in terms of difficult places to play and get a result.
     
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  3. Ulrich

    Ulrich Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Toronto may be playing for their lives in that final match.
     
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  4. ZYanksRule

    ZYanksRule Regular Member

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    NE also a tough place to play by any account. We've already played some of our toughest games of the season.
     
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  5. Sabo

    Sabo 2017 Pigeon Cup Semifinalist Elite Donor Donor

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    This early in the season, the Supporters Shield table is more about who is in form than who are the best teams in the league (somewhat), but its worth taking a look at it to see how impressive our undefeated record through 7 is. We have played:
    2nd (SKC)
    3rd (ATL)
    4th (NER)
    6th (ORL)
    7th (LAG)

    After the ATL result, 538 rates us the favorite to win the Supporters Shield.
     
  6. twsj91

    twsj91 Junior Member

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    Correct me if I'm wrong, but at this point in the CCL race it really is just between us and Atl. If Atl is able to pass us they'll probably win the shield, which then still has us as 1st in the CCL table. So barring a massive collapse we should qualify one of two ways, no?
     
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  7. Gotham Gator

    Gotham Gator Senior Member Donor

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    No. Shield winner doesn't qualify automatically this year because of the need to combine two regular seasons for one CCL qualification.

    This year, the qualifiers are the MLS Cup winner and the US Open Cup winner. If either of those already qualify some other way, or if the MLS Cup winner is Canadian, then a replacement is taken from the combined Supporters Shield standings for 2017 and 2018. The same was true last year, and since Toronto won the MLS Cup, one spot is officially thrown to the combined table. The other spot went to Sporting KC.
     
  8. Midas Mulligan

    Midas Mulligan Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter International Liaison

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    I guess this is as good a place as any for this.

    Odds are from 4/12, but can’t imagine they would have done anything but go down for us and ATL and up for TFC.

    5700E60C-579F-44A8-86D4-B3EACD84FA39.png
     
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  9. dannd23

    dannd23 Active Member

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    Hate it but as a bettor i'd put $20 on RBNJ and Columbus all day with those odds...
     
  10. Ulrich

    Ulrich Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Was thinking the same thing.
     
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  11. Kjbert

    Kjbert Senior Member Seasoned Supporter

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    Berhalter is best coach in MLS and he's in the worst market.

    To play that style with the lack of talent? Good on him.
     
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  12. mgarbowski

    mgarbowski Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    I've been tracking 538 game by game. The win over RSL put NYCFC's SPI rating above 40 for the first time this season (and I would guess, ever). We got a bigger bump from beating RSL at home than drawing ATL Away, which I thought a bit odd. NYC is now ranked first in every category but SPI and Off/Def strength. Those categories seem the least directly connected to results. In every other category, TFC has taken a bit of a beating the past few weeks
     
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  13. Sabo

    Sabo 2017 Pigeon Cup Semifinalist Elite Donor Donor

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    I do too. The ratings are sensitive to big wins and losses. The shutout also improved our defense from 1.6 to 1.5 which made us that much more likely to win games the rest of the season. I am pretty sure the model is still relying heavily on last year and the 4-1 loss to Columbus is dragging us down. I think its going to be another 6 weeks or so before the ratings reflect the 2018 season -- always interesting to look at though.
     
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  14. canchon

    canchon Active Member Seasoned Supporter

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    LOL DC United
     
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  15. canchon

    canchon Active Member Seasoned Supporter

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    And 2nd 3rd 4th all away with one win and two ties. Impressive.
     
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  16. Gotham Gator

    Gotham Gator Senior Member Donor

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    And now we are going at #20, but that is deceptive because they've only played one game out of six at home.
     
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  17. Ulrich

    Ulrich Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Yeah, but they’re coached by Savarese and are green, so PV is gonna make this one personal and take it to them.
     
  18. Fantazma

    Fantazma Senior Member Seasoned Supporter

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    dont underestimate that new turf..who knows how much "better" or maybe even worse it is.

    EDIT: kinda pissed i cant go this year...i very much enjoyed going there two years ago...nice city too.
     
  19. adam

    adam Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Going into todays matchups.

    NYC 74 (27)
    ATL 71 (27)
    CLB 65 (26)
    CHI 62 (28)
    NJRB 59 (28)
    POR 58 (28)
    HOU 58 (28)

    We play Portland tonight. A win puts us almost 20 points up on the N.J. POR HOU grouping. We’d also have s 10+ point lead on CLB & CHI. This is quickly becoming a 2 horse race. Giddy up!
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2018 at 11:30 AM
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