Race for CCL Spot 2019

[LionNYC]

NYC 77 (25)
ATL 74 (26)
CLB 68 (25)
CHI 63 (27)
NJRB 62 (27)
POR 61 (27)
HOU 58 (27)

Almost every team earned points this week. So tight with us and Atlanta. Let’s all hope Almiron rumors are true. I’m also glad we finished so far ahead of NJ last season.

I think we have to start exploring what the tiebreakers are for the CCL spot. I’d assume it would be first combined wins from 2017 and 2018in the same way the supporters shield does it. Then again, everything we’ve thought about this spot has been wrong.

 

[adam]

I think we have to start exploring what the tiebreakers are for the CCL spot. I’d assume it would be first combined wins from 2017 and 2018in the same way the supporters shield does it. Then again, everything we’ve thought about this spot has been wrong.

It's easy enough for me to do for next week. I'll just move it over to a spreadsheet. But you're right, they will just make up a tiebreaker when the time comes. I can see the tweet now by Concacaf: NYCFC qualifies for CCL by way of wins. Then silence from MLS for a week. MLS: Atlanta qualifies for CCL by way of fewest substitutions made over 2 season, divided by GAM.

 

[LeeNYCFC]

I think we have to start exploring what the tiebreakers are for the CCL spot. I’d assume it would be first combined wins from 2017 and 2018in the same way the supporters shield does it. Then again, everything we’ve thought about this spot has been wrong.

“If clubs are even on points, the the MLS playoff qualification tiebreakers will be used.”

Points>Wins>Goal Differential>Goals

 

[adam]

 

[Ulrich]

View attachment 8618

Guess this means we gotta ramp up our goal differential a bit to pull even with Atlanta. Time to return the favor with a 7-0 drubbing of RB....

 

[Kjbert]

I'm not worried. We haven't played Philly, DC, Minnesota, etc.

 

[adam]

Missed the early week update, but here's how we stand going into the weekend:



For the first time this season, Atlanta has taken the lead, but only by goal differential. Columbus is also creeping back up, but both Atlanta & NYC have a game in hand.

This week's important matchups:

FRIDAY (tonight):
Houston @ Vancouver

SATURDAY:
Chicago @ Columbus
NJ @ Colorado

SUNDAY:
Seattle @ Portland
Atlanta @ Orlando
NYC @ LA

Every Sunday matchup has CCL ramifications. Happy Mother's Day!!

 

[adam]

If the Atlanta score holds, aside from Houston only gaining a point, there could not have been a worse set of results for us this weekend. Really could use 3 points in LA tonight to hold serve.

 

[adam]

Well, we're really slipping in the standings now. Columbus is right behind us too, but we have a game in hand. However, NJ has 2 games in hand on us and has been steadily climbing...



Lets hope the injuries Atlanta suffered tonight slow them down some. And Isi coming back for us boosts us a bit.

Matches this week that affect the standings:

SATURDAY:
COL @ NYC
LAFC @ POR
CLB @ NE

SUNDAY:
HOU @ CHI
NJ @ ATL

We have 2 matches that contain 2 teams in the race. Will I actually be rooting for NJ this week? I think I have to.

 

[adam]

After Week 12, we've re-taken the lead!



We also gained 6 goals in the GD category (though it still may be insurmountable at this point).

FRIDAY 5/25:
NYC @ HOU 9:00

SATURDAY 5/26:
PHI @ NJ 7:00
CHI @ ORL 7:30
POR @ COL 9:00

SUNDAY 5/27:
CLB @ SKC 6:00

No match for ATL this week, but they will have to play next week without Gressel (Garza p/Midas) in a tough environment in NE. I'm glad HOU won away in CHI this week, maybe they are due for a letdown vs us in the only matchup of teams on the CCL table (though HOU is probably not long for this list). I don't root for injuries, but Robles, Lawerence and Adams is a tough trio to be missing versus PHI in a rivalry game. It would be nice (not Nice, fuck those guys) for NJ to drop some points, and they have 2 games in hand on us and are red hot. Adams going away to Europe after a couple USA friendlies would also be helpful. CHI has looked awful as of late and have to play away to ORL, they may be dropped from the table soon too. POR should take care of biz away to COL. And CLB's win has closed the gap, but we have a game in hand and I'm hoping they also drop points away to SKC where only NYC seems to be able to win.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

After Week 12, we've re-taken the lead!

View attachment 8671

We also gained 6 goals in the GD category (though it still may be insurmountable at this point).

FRIDAY 5/25:
NYC @ HOU 9:00

SATURDAY 5/26:
PHI @ NJ 7:00
CHI @ ORL 7:30
POR @ COL 9:00

SUNDAY 5/27:
CLB @ SKC 6:00

No match for ATL this week, but they will have to play next week without Gressel in a tough environment in NE. I'm glad HOU won away in CHI this week, maybe they are due for a letdown vs us in the only matchup of teams on the CCL table (though HOU is probably not long for this list). I don't root for injuries, but Robles, Lawerence and Adams is a tough trio to be missing versus PHI in a rivalry game. It would be nice (not Nice, fuck those guys) for NJ to drop some points, and they have 2 games in hand on us and are red hot. Adams going away to Europe after a couple USA friendlies would also be helpful. CHI has looked awful as of late and have to play away to ORL, they may be dropped from the table soon too. POR should take care of biz away to COL. And CLB's win has closed the gap, but we have a game in hand and I'm hoping they also drop points away to SKC where only NYC seems to be able to win.

Atlanta will be missing Garza, not Gressel. Well, they could sit Gressel. But Garza on that ban tip.

 

[adam]

Atlanta will be missing Garza, not Gressel. Well, they could sit Gressel. But Garza on that ban tip.

Thanks. Long day. Mixed up my Gs.

 

[LionNYC]

After Week 12, we've re-taken the lead!

View attachment 8671

We also gained 6 goals in the GD category (though it still may be insurmountable at this point).

FRIDAY 5/25:
NYC @ HOU 9:00

SATURDAY 5/26:
PHI @ NJ 7:00
CHI @ ORL 7:30
POR @ COL 9:00

SUNDAY 5/27:
CLB @ SKC 6:00

No match for ATL this week, but they will have to play next week without Gressel (Garza p/Midas) in a tough environment in NE. I'm glad HOU won away in CHI this week, maybe they are due for a letdown vs us in the only matchup of teams on the CCL table (though HOU is probably not long for this list). I don't root for injuries, but Robles, Lawerence and Adams is a tough trio to be missing versus PHI in a rivalry game. It would be nice (not Nice, fuck those guys) for NJ to drop some points, and they have 2 games in hand on us and are red hot. Adams going away to Europe after a couple USA friendlies would also be helpful. CHI has looked awful as of late and have to play away to ORL, they may be dropped from the table soon too. POR should take care of biz away to COL. And CLB's win has closed the gap, but we have a game in hand and I'm hoping they also drop points away to SKC where only NYC seems to be able to win.

Leandro Gonzalez-Pirez will also be suspended due to yellow card accumulation.

Also, if you want to see a live salt mine, check out the Atlanta United subreddit.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

Jeff Larentowicz with the clubhouse lead of overturned red cards.

At some point, they ought to stick just on the basis of him going into 60/40s with his foot up way too high. It’s definitely intentional, and I’m sick of him getting bailed out.

 

[FredMertz]

NJRB may be without Tyler Adams
...
https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018/05/20/report-tyler-adams-closing-deal-rb-leipzig

 

[Ulrich]

NJRB may be without Tyler Adams
...
https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018/05/20/report-tyler-adams-closing-deal-rb-leipzig

Wonder how the contract is written regarding the medical he will have to take before it’s consumatted? His injury last night could be pivotal.

 

[canchon]

Wonder how the contract is written regarding the medical he will have to take before it’s consumatted? His injury last night could be pivotal.

I wonder if he was basically all set to go pending the medical, which would explain why he looked devastated (he looked like he was going to cry) when he came off the field last night rubbing his knee.

 

[mgarbowski]

I ran the numbers for a quick thought experiment: what if the bottom 4 teams on adam's table win 2 PPG the rest of the way? How well do Atlanta and NYC have to play to stay above that? I calculated for Atlanta, and this the result:

CHI 1.45
HOU 1.50
POR 1.73
RB 1.77

This means that if these teams earn 2.0 PPG the rest of the season, Atlanta exactly matches them with the PPG listed next to them. I figure ATL's GD is so high they win if they tie on points, and NYC has one more point than Atlanta so if it gets the same listed PPG it finishes one point ahead.

I think this shows Chicago and Houston are functionally out of this race. The odds of either of them suddenly winning 2.0 PPG for more than 20 games while both Atlanta and NYC drop to 1.50 or lower has to be infinitesimal. Portland and the Red Bulls still have a shot, though this shows how hard it will be. Of course, RB is currently at a slightly better than 2.0 pace right now, but it seems inevitable that it, NYC and ATL all will slip somewhat from this level.

 

[adam]

I ran the numbers for a quick thought experiment: what if the bottom 4 teams on adam's table win 2 PPG the rest of the way? How well do Atlanta and NYC have to play to stay above that? I calculated for Atlanta, and this the result:

CHI 1.45
HOU 1.50
POR 1.73
RB 1.77

This means that if these teams earn 2.0 PPG the rest of the season, Atlanta exactly matches them with the PPG listed next to them. I figure ATL's GD is so high they win if they tie on points, and NYC has one more point than Atlanta so if it gets the same listed PPG it finishes one point ahead.

I think this shows Chicago and Houston are functionally out of this race. The odds of either of them suddenly winning 2.0 PPG for more than 20 games while both Atlanta and NYC drop to 1.50 or lower has to be infinitesimal. Portland and the Red Bulls still have a shot, though this shows how hard it will be. Of course, RB is currently at a slightly better than 2.0 pace right now, but it seems inevitable that it, NYC and ATL all will slip somewhat from this level.

You know I was thinking in a similar vein and planned to post that next week. Thanks for stealing my thunder you big lovable statistical galoot.

 

[mgarbowski]

You know I was thinking in a similar vein and planned to post that next week. Thanks for stealing my thunder you big lovable statistical galoot.

Sorry dude. It was either this or try to read that photo of the L’Equipe article in French.