Race for CCL Spot 2019

[Ulrich]

PVs last present to all of us.

He was like Santa Claus or Hanukkah Harry that last month.... I swear, some of those presents were like being a 4yo and ripping off the wrapping paper to find a three-pack of socks.

Not that there’s anything wrong with socks, and if you’re going in that direction, then this went over your head.

 

[mgarbowski]

He was like Santa Claus or Hanukkah Harry that last month.... I swear, some of those presents were like being a 4yo and ripping off the wrapping paper to find a three-pack of socks.

Not that there’s anything wrong with socks, and if you’re going in that direction, then this went over your head.

I thought I understood the post until I read the disclaimer.

 

[Ulrich]

I thought I understood the post until I read the disclaimer.

Only that for some, getting socks would be exciting because of a general lack of resources, and that’s not to be looked down on - obviously wasn’t the perspective of the post.

 

[adam]

Last week's results:

Wednesday 8/8:
LAFC 3 (6) @ HOU 3 (7) (USOC semi-final)

Saturday 8/11:
HOU 0 @ CLB 1
NJ 1 @ CHI 0
VAN 2 @ POR 1

Sunday 8/12:
NYC 3 @ TOR 2
DAL 1 @ SEA 2

With LAFC's PK loss to Houston in the USOC. The only Western teams who can open up another CCL spot with a MLS Cup win are now SKC & Houston. If Philly beats Houston in the USOC final, then it's only SKC. Furthermore, since Houston's chances of even qualifying for the playoffs are slim to none this season; we probably want to root for Philly in the final.

Speaking of Houston, they lost 1-0 at Columbus which doesn't really do much but keep the black & gold mathematically relevant for a few more weeks. NJ won 1-0 at Chicago, a game we were hoping they would drop points at. That ties them in wins (1st tie breaker) with Atlanta and they still have a match in hand. Portland finally lost at home this season to the same Vancouver team that just drew us at home. Portland still has 4 matches in hand on us and Atlanta, but they dropped points again and even if they won out those matches in hand, they'd only be able to draw with NJ if they win their match in hand. Isi gave us the win we needed at Toronto, a match we didn't expect to get 3 points at going in. By doing so, it shot us to the top of the table, even in matches with Atlanta. We also have the wins tie breaker as well. And lastly, Dallas lost at Seattle. They may be having a strong 2018 campaign, but down 16 points to us with 11 matches to play, it would take an incredible streak by them and collapse by NYC, ATL & NJ for them to have any chance as this CCL spot. Here's how the table looks after match week 24:



This is the 6th time that Atlanta & NYC have swapped 1st position in the last month.

This week's CCL matchups:

WEDNESDAY 8/15:
DCU @ POR 8:00

SATURDAY 8/18:
NYC @ PHI 7:00
NJ @ VAN 7:00
MIN @ DAL 8:00
POR @ SKC 8:30

SUNDAY 8/19:
CLB @ ATL 4:00

We start with Portland hosting DCU and Rooney's magic after their first home loss all year. Can they finally get back on track after dropping points 2 weeks in a row? Then a bid Saturday slate with NYC heading to USOC finalists PHI, NJ traveling cross country to Vancouver who picked up 4 points in 2 matches at NYC and POR, the 2 hardest places to play in the MLS. Dallas hosting a surging Minnesota team. Then Portland ending the night with their 2nd match of the week traveling to SKC, a very tough place to earn points. Sunday then has a big CCL matchup with Columbus traveling to Hotlanta. If ATL can get 3 points, CLB would be 13 points behind them with 9 matches to play, seemingly nullifying and CCL hopes from the aggregate table. Happy watching! And if you're a podcast, I just spelled all this out for you, please get it correct in your discussions

 

[mgarbowski]

This is a 3-team race, and I give one of those teams very low odds of winning (hint, it's not NYC or Atlanta). The Red Bulls started the season 5 behind Atlanta and 7 behind NYCFC. With 2/3 of the season gone, they currently sit 6 behind Atlanta and 7 behind NYCFC. I know, game in hand yada-yada. They're not catching both of the teams ahead of them. The teams are too evenly matched and it's unlikely both Atlanta and the Pigeons suddenly drop enough points. Red Bulls might win the shield, but they would shock me if they won this spot.

By the way, please don't drop any teams you currently track no matter how hopeless it gets. Might as well mark their official demise as they fall away one-by-one.

 

[adam]

This is a 3-team race, and I give one of those teams very low odds of winning (hint, it's not NYC or Atlanta). The Red Bulls started the season 5 behind Atlanta and 7 behind NYCFC. With 2/3 of the season gone, they currently sit 6 behind Atlanta and 7 behind NYCFC. I know, game in hand yada-yada. They're not catching both of the teams ahead of them. The teams are too evenly matched and it's unlikely both Atlanta and the Pigeons suddenly drop enough points. Red Bulls might win the shield, but they would shock me if they won this spot.

By the way, please don't drop any teams you currently track no matter how hopeless it gets. Might as well mark their official demise as they fall away one-by-one.

If NJ doesn’t get 3 points at YS on 8/22, it becomes a 2 horse race.

Don’t worry I’ll keep them on till their mathematically out. If someone wants to help with Magic #s, please feel free.

 

[SoupInNYC]

If NJ doesn’t get 3 points at YS on 8/22, it becomes a 2 horse race.

Don’t worry I’ll keep them on till their mathematically out. If someone wants to help with Magic #s, please feel free.

It's hard to keep magic numbers, because of the point system, but you could add a column that has Max Points:

NYC: 134
Atlanta: 133
NJ: 130
Columbus: 123
Portland: 131
Dallas: 121

 

[Shwafta]

If NJ doesn’t get 3 points at YS on 8/22, it becomes a 2 horse race.

Don’t worry I’ll keep them on till their mathematically out. If someone wants to help with Magic #s, please feel free.

this is what I was thinking.
If RB beat us at home, they may very well catch us. Will they beat us at home? Let's hope not. Even a tie at home to RB would be much safer.

 

[adam]

this is what I was thinking.
If RB beat us at home, they may very well catch us. Will they beat us at home? Let's hope not. Even a tie at home to RB would be much safer.

Yup. If we match results this weekend, a draw would keep us 7 points up with 8/9 matches remaining respectively. But it could also drop us behind atlanta again.

 

[mgarbowski]

View attachment 9030

Portland finished with 53 points last year, and they have 37 now. I never took common core but I think that adds up to 90 under geezer math.

 

[adam]

Portland finished with 53 points last year, and they have 37 now. I never took common core but I think that adds up to 90 under geezer math.

Thanks. Not sure where I went wrong updating the last few months. I don’t even add points. I put in wins and draws and let excel do the math. I’ll fix it later today and double check the rest.

 

[mgarbowski]

I made a CCL line graph. With fewer teams than my East conference chart it's much easier to follow. I like how it shows the gap each team has had to cover to catch NYCFC. At times, each of Columbus, Dallas and Portland gain substantial ground only to level off. The Red Bulls started behind everyone but Dallas, have not suffered a level period, but still can't manage to close the gap with Atlanta and NYC.

 

[adam]

Portland finished with 53 points last year, and they have 37 now. I never took common core but I think that adds up to 90 under geezer math.

Missed a draw. Also had some goal adding errors that crept in. Here's the updated and correct standings. I'll change on the original post too. Thanks for catching it!

 

[adam]

It's hard to keep magic numbers, because of the point system, but you could add a column that has Max Points:

NYC: 134
Atlanta: 133
NJ: 130
Columbus: 123
Portland: 131
Dallas: 121

 

[SoupInNYC]

View attachment 9044

Exactly, though now that mgarbowski caught the previous item, the Max Pts for Portland should be 129, since I was using the old number when calculating that.

 

[adam]

Exactly, though now that mgarbowski caught the previous item, the Max Pts for Portland should be 129, since I was using the old number when calculating that.

That's correct. And I added a formula so I don't have to do the math =Points+(G/rem*3) and I got 129. I'll let the spreadsheet do the work the rest of the way.

 

[mgarbowski]

Exactly, though now that mgarbowski caught the previous item, the Max Pts for Portland should be 129, since I was using the old number when calculating that.

Max Points should be a formula. Points + (Remaining Games * 3)

 

[adam]

Max Points should be a formula. Points + (Remaining Games * 3)

See above. Also took a page out of your book for projected points Points + (G/rem*ppg)

 

[SoupInNYC]

See above. Also took a page out of your book for projected points Points + (G/rem*ppg)

View attachment 9046

I decided to take a crack at projected cumulative based on the remaining h/a analysis I've been doing and came up with the following:

• Atlanta 129
• NYCFC 120
• NJ 117
• Portland 111
• Dallas 109
• Columbus 107

I know my analysis isn't perfect, but the fun thing is this projection will update as results happen (for example, a DC loss at home tonight would move NJ's predicted points to 116). Also, my analysis does not factor at all any injuries or current form, it only factors in each teams H/A form for this year.

 

[mgarbowski]

I decided to take a crack at projected cumulative based on the remaining h/a analysis I've been doing and came up with the following:

• Atlanta 129
• NYCFC 120
• NJ 117
• Portland 111
• Dallas 109
• Columbus 107

I know my analysis isn't perfect, but the fun thing is this projection will update as results happen (for example, a DC loss at home tonight would move NJ's predicted points to 116). Also, my analysis does not factor at all any injuries or current form, it only factors in each teams H/A form for this year.

I recommend you keep track of these projections, not just here, but record them as hard entries on your sheet so you can see how wrong or right they were. I think you have a decent 1.0 version of something, but it might need to get to 2.x or even 3.x to really be predictive. Right now, I just don't see Atlanta pulling away like that.