The MLS Elite

[Gotham Gator]

It's worth a pause after the first month of the season to see how the league is starting to shake out.

Who are the elite teams in 2018? Who is part of the nearly elite?

Going into the year, the consensus seemed to be that there are four elite teams that should be better than everyone else: Toronto, NYCFC, Atlanta and Seattle. After the first few games, two of those remain in that group without a doubt. NYCFC sits atop the standings. Atlanta had a horrible first game, but has since rebounded to win three straight, including two in dominating fashion.

Toronto has gotten off to a tepid start with one win and two losses, but they still deserve an elite tag based on their incredible 2017 season and the ready excuse of Champions League distractions.

Only Seattle has clearly lost elite status. They have no points through three games and no longer have Champions League games as an excuse. They have been bitten by injuries and may recover in good form, but for now they have fallen.

One team has joined the elite. Columbus. They've followed up their strong finish to last season with a good start and sit tied for second on points. They've also won the only matchup of elite teams - a 2-0 win at Toronto on the opening weekend.

Just behind the elite are four teams in the nearly elite category. New Jersey is off to a 2-2 start despite playing its reserves in key games, and it absolutely destroyed Club Tiajuana in Champions League action. Vancouver and Sporting KC are both 3-1-1, with each loss being to an elite team. Finally, LAFC has been strong in limited action, with two impressive wins followed by the collapse after a big lead in the inaugural el Trafico.

The Elite
NYCFC
Toronto
Atlanta
Columbus

The Nearly Elite
New Jersey
Sporting KC
Vancouver
LAFC

The Fallen
Seattle

 

[Ulrich]

It's worth a pause after the first month of the season to see how the league is starting to shake out.

Who are the elite teams in 2018? Who is part of the nearly elite?

Going into the year, the consensus seemed to be that there are four elite teams that should be better than everyone else: Toronto, NYCFC, Atlanta and Seattle. After the first few games, two of those remain in that group without a doubt. NYCFC sits atop the standings. Atlanta had a horrible first game, but has since rebounded to win three straight, including two in dominating fashion.

Toronto has gotten off to a tepid start with one win and two losses, but they still deserve an elite tag based on their incredible 2017 season and the ready excuse of Champions League distractions.

Only Seattle has clearly lost elite status. They have no points through three games and no longer have Champions League games as an excuse. They have been bitten by injuries and may recover in good form, but for now they have fallen.

One team has joined the elite. Columbus. They've followed up their strong finish to last season with a good start and sit tied for second on points. They've also won the only matchup of elite teams - a 2-0 win at Toronto on the opening weekend.

Just behind the elite are four teams in the nearly elite category. New Jersey is off to a 2-2 start despite playing its reserves in key games, and it absolutely destroyed Club Tiajuana in Champions League action. Vancouver and Sporting KC are both 3-1-1, with each loss being to an elite team. Finally, LAFC has been strong in limited action, with two impressive wins followed by the collapse after a big lead in the inaugural el Trafico.

The Elite
NYCFC
Toronto
Atlanta
Columbus

The Nearly Elite
New Jersey
Sporting KC
Vancouver
LAFC

The Fallen
Seattle

Other than the MLS pundits, who thought Seattle was going to be elite? They were a team in an average West conference that got it together in the playoffs, and they have a few really good players and a star that’s past his sell by date.

I’m not jawing at you, but I’m not sure the consensus of Seattle being a contender was legitimate and yet the league needed a team to offset the East and lazily chose the MLS Cup entrant.

 

[Seth]

Might have to put the Galaxy in the Solid Maybe category after this past weekend's match. The league might get collectively Zlataned this year.

 

[mgarbowski]

I think the Red Bulls are at least as likely to be deemed elite as Columbus once we get past the CCL. Or, to be more specific, I think Columbus is playing near their ceiling right now and Red Bulls near their floor.

I think 5 East playoff spots are all but spoken for, and one of the "elite" teams will start with an Away playoff game.
New England, Montreal, Orlando, and maybe Chicago fight for the last spot. And while I don't see them breaking into the elite, I'm looking at New England as my dark horse choice.


I agree with Seth about the Galaxy being on the bubble moving up. I also think LAFC will fall in stature over the long season, though likely still be good. Other than the LA teams, I don't know what to say about the West.

 

[sbrylski]

I think the Red Bulls are at least as likely to be deemed elite as Columbus once we get past the CCL. Or, to be more specific, I think Columbus is playing near their ceiling right now and Red Bulls near their floor.

I think 5 East playoff spots are all but spoken for, and one of the "elite" teams will start with an Away playoff game.
New England, Montreal, Orlando, and maybe Chicago fight for the last spot. And while I don't see them breaking into the elite, I'm looking at New England as my dark horse choice.

I agree with Seth about the Galaxy being on the bubble moving up. I also think LAFC will fall in stature over the long season, though likely still be good. Other than the LA teams, I don't know what to say about the West.

Agreed, not ready to call Columbus elite. They've been riding the finishing play of Zardes of all people. Gergg Berhalter definitely looks like a manager of the year candidate though.

I'm not going to overreact after just a few games. NYCFC, Atlanta, and Toronto are still the only three "elites" as I would have said during the pre-season. The West could be a dogfight all year. LAFC may fade due to lack of depth, LA Galaxy will ride Zlatan to a bunch of wins, and Portland might catch fire later in the year as they find their new identity under Sarvese. It might be another 2016 out West, where nobody shines and a team like Colorado took the top seed just by being consistently solid (e.g. SKC this season so far).

 

[SoupInNYC]

Agreed, not ready to call Columbus elite. They've been riding the finishing play of Zardes of all people. Gergg Berhalter definitely looks like a manager of the year candidate though.

I'm not going to overreact after just a few games. NYCFC, Atlanta, and Toronto are still the only three "elites" as I would have said during the pre-season. The West could be a dogfight all year. LAFC may fade due to lack of depth, LA Galaxy will ride Zlatan to a bunch of wins, and Portland might catch fire later in the year as they find their new identity under Sarvese. It might be another 2016 out West, where nobody shines and a team like Colorado took the top seed just by being consistently solid (e.g. SKC this season so far).

Yeah, I think LAG will be one of the top teams in the West. We're pointing right now to Zlatan being added, but they also have one of the better DPs in the league in Alessandrini. Once they are able to put him together with Zlatan and provide clearly defined roles for the Two Santos, they will be very, very tough.

I think Portland will eventually turn it around, they have too much talent not to do so. Once they figure out how to work Blanco, Valeri, Adi, and Armenteros all together, they'll be solid.

Colorado is my darkhorse in the West to slip into the playoffs. Badji has been in good form and they've added a few nice, young attacking options. I don't have much more than that, but I have this feeling that they'll make it in as the 5 or 6.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I struggled over whether to put the Galaxy in as a "nearly elite" team. Ultimately, I felt it would be a reaction to that one crazy comeback and not on their whole season in 2018 (not to mention ignoring the disaster of 2017). There is no doubting the talent, but I think they need to get people healthy and show they can all play together.

I similarly thought about slotting in the Red Bulls as an elite team, but I wanted to see a little more consistency. My guess is that they get there.

I tend to agree with Ulrich that Seattle was more about picking a west team and a finalist than their real standing, but I saw them mentioned pretty much everywhere - more than us even.

 

[Ulrich]

*Seattle* I saw them mentioned pretty much everywhere - more than us even.

That’s what’s so frustrating about MLS pundits - throw in Nate Silver’s algorithm too - in that they really don’t objectively look at teams, and their off-season moves, and instead heavily weight last season. MLS preseason rankings may be the one place where the *eye test* is most valid and useful - not league parity and talking points.

 

[dummyrun]

It's worth a pause after the first month of the season to see how the league is starting to shake out.

Who are the elite teams in 2018? Who is part of the nearly elite?

Going into the year, the consensus seemed to be that there are four elite teams that should be better than everyone else: Toronto, NYCFC, Atlanta and Seattle. After the first few games, two of those remain in that group without a doubt. NYCFC sits atop the standings. Atlanta had a horrible first game, but has since rebounded to win three straight, including two in dominating fashion.

Toronto has gotten off to a tepid start with one win and two losses, but they still deserve an elite tag based on their incredible 2017 season and the ready excuse of Champions League distractions.

Only Seattle has clearly lost elite status. They have no points through three games and no longer have Champions League games as an excuse. They have been bitten by injuries and may recover in good form, but for now they have fallen.

One team has joined the elite. Columbus. They've followed up their strong finish to last season with a good start and sit tied for second on points. They've also won the only matchup of elite teams - a 2-0 win at Toronto on the opening weekend.

Just behind the elite are four teams in the nearly elite category. New Jersey is off to a 2-2 start despite playing its reserves in key games, and it absolutely destroyed Club Tiajuana in Champions League action. Vancouver and Sporting KC are both 3-1-1, with each loss being to an elite team. Finally, LAFC has been strong in limited action, with two impressive wins followed by the collapse after a big lead in the inaugural el Trafico.

The Elite
NYCFC
Toronto
Atlanta
Columbus

The Nearly Elite
New Jersey
Sporting KC
Vancouver
LAFC

The Fallen
Seattle

Here's a lukewarm take: There is no MLS elite. Name any team you'd put in it—NYCFC, RBNY, Toronto, Atlanta, whoever—and they've all got obvious flaws that may or may not get fixed. What are the best odds you'd give for an MLS Cup winner right now, maybe 8/1?

 

[mgarbowski]

Here's a lukewarm take: There is no MLS elite. Name any team you'd put in it—NYCFC, RBNY, Toronto, Atlanta, whoever—and they've all got obvious flaws that may or may not get fixed. What are the best odds you'd give for an MLS Cup winner right now, maybe 8/1?

Fair point, but...
The odds simply reflect that there are multiple decent teams and no one should ever have truly low odds in a knockout playoff where some of the rounds, including the final, are one game.
As for the flaws, it's a fair point, but compared to the rest of the league the top teams have far, far fewer. I definitely agree there is uncertainty now about which teams deserve the designation, but I also expect that come season end, there will be 3-6 teams at the top of the SS standings, with a meaningful point gap separating them from the rest of the league.
If not, well I've been wrong before.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

Yeah, I think LAG will be one of the top teams in the West. We're pointing right now to Zlatan being added, but they also have one of the better DPs in the league in Alessandrini. Once they are able to put him together with Zlatan and provide clearly defined roles for the Two Santos, they will be very, very tough.

I think Portland will eventually turn it around, they have too much talent not to do so. Once they figure out how to work Blanco, Valeri, Adi, and Armenteros all together, they'll be solid.

Colorado is my darkhorse in the West to slip into the playoffs. Badji has been in good form and they've added a few nice, young attacking options. I don't have much more than that, but I have this feeling that they'll make it in as the 5 or 6.

Their downside is the coach.

I think LAFC would be elite, if they weren't a new club.

Fully on-board with Ulrich that I never thought Seattle was an elite club for this year. They looked like poop last year, no really strong signings. They are unwatchable 90% of the time since Oba left. Miss that fun with Deuce and Oba. THey think Jordan Morris is potentially good. lOloLLoL.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

Here's a lukewarm take: There is no MLS elite. Name any team you'd put in it—NYCFC, RBNY, Toronto, Atlanta, whoever—and they've all got obvious flaws that may or may not get fixed. What are the best odds you'd give for an MLS Cup winner right now, maybe 8/1?

That's just not true.

There are teams that have the depth and obvious talent to outshine the rest.

We have flaws like "no 3rd string left back" and "not good enough cover for our league-best striker". That is, by definition, elite problems.

ETA: sort of what mgarbowski said, but I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that at least 3 of those clubs (NYC, ATL, TFC) are just really good per MLS standards.

And I happen to also think, based on what I've seen, RBNY is going to be really good because they have a good manager (who's a dick) and tons of good homegrown depth. I wouldn't quite call them part of the elite, though.

LAFC & LAG have a better argument. This year should show that point gap, unless teams just dog it down the stretch because it doesn't matter.

 

[gbservis]

Their downside is the coach.

I think LAFC would be elite, if they weren't a new club.

Fully on-board with Ulrich that I never thought Seattle was an elite club for this year. They looked like poop last year, no really strong signings. They are unwatchable 90% of the time since Oba left. Miss that fun with Deuce and Oba. THey think Jordan Morris is potentially good. lOloLLoL.

LAG played like a spineless gutless group of soft players with a coach to match up until Zlatan stepped on the pitch. It's amazing how much influence that guys confidence can have on a team like that, I think they are legit now just by the combination of talent and Zlatan confidence.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

LAG played like a spineless gutless group of soft players with a coach to match up until Zlatan stepped on the pitch. It's amazing how much influence that guys confidence can have on a team like that, I think they are legit now just by the combination of talent and Zlatan confidence.

I mean, even spineless, gutless jerks can be pretty damn good. Let's be clear here, you're sort of calling out 2 guys who are WCF locks and possible to probably starters for a top 20 int'l team, even if you aren't doing it by name.

I said after we played them that it was close to a mid-table PL midfield. Standing by that, add Alessandrini healthy and one-legged Zlatan, they are sick.

LETS NOT FORGET: ZLATAN HAD 29 PL GOALS LAST YEAR. It's why I said 1-legged Zlatan scores a goal a game here. No bigger game changer in the history of the league.

What they are lacking a manager who has more than fried chicken skins between his ears. We'll see.

 

[dummyrun]

I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that at least 3 of those clubs (NYC, ATL, TFC) are just really good per MLS standards.

And I happen to also think, based on what I've seen, RBNY is going to be really good because they have a good manager (who's a dick) and tons of good homegrown depth. I wouldn't quite call them part of the elite, though.

As much as it pains me to say this, I'd be willing to bet that RBNY finishes better than at least two of the teams in your elite.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

As much as it pains me to say this, I'd be willing to bet that RBNY finishes better than at least two of the teams in your elite.

I don't necessarily disagree. I think they are really good. But on paper and limited results, my arbitrary weightings have them outside the door, but knocking.

eta: I also think Kaku is really damn good, and no one is giving him nearly enough credit just yet. He'll end up being an important player in how the East shakes out. I like what I've seen of him a whole lot.

 

[adam]

I don't necessarily disagree. I think they are really good. But on paper and limited results, my arbitrary weightings have them outside the door, but knocking.

eta: I also think Kaku is really damn good, and no one is giving him nearly enough credit just yet. He'll end up being an important player in how the East shakes out. I like what I've seen of him a whole lot.

What scares me is their youth and speed. They did a good job with their overhaul (if I’m allowed to give them a compliment). And that means we haven’t begun to see their ceiling. It also means they could crash unexpectedly mid season if they get derailed by a bad result. We shall see.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

What scares me is their youth and speed. They did a good job with their overhaul (if I’m allowed to give them a compliment). And that means we haven’t begun to see their ceiling. It also means they could crash unexpectedly mid season if they get derailed by a bad result. We shall see.

Also, I don't think there's a more improved player than Tyler Adams in the last 8 months, in the whole of the league.

From our first win against them last year until now, he's gone from well below Herrera for me, to even and looking more ready to kick on.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Here's a lukewarm take: There is no MLS elite. Name any team you'd put in it—NYCFC, RBNY, Toronto, Atlanta, whoever—and they've all got obvious flaws that may or may not get fixed. What are the best odds you'd give for an MLS Cup winner right now, maybe 8/1?

I think the notion that there is no MLS Elite was certainly true 3 years ago. I don't think it is anymore. There is a real difference in how much teams spend and another difference in how efficiently teams spend, and the combination is yielding some teams that are well above the pack.

I think by June, you could pick 3-5 teams as being Elite and with 90% certainty, one of them would win MLS Cup. I don't think that has been true for most of the league's history.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I don't necessarily disagree. I think they are really good. But on paper and limited results, my arbitrary weightings have them outside the door, but knocking.

eta: I also think Kaku is really damn good, and no one is giving him nearly enough credit just yet. He'll end up being an important player in how the East shakes out. I like what I've seen of him a whole lot.

Also, I don't think there's a more improved player than Tyler Adams in the last 8 months, in the whole of the league.

From our first win against them last year until now, he's gone from well below Herrera for me, to even and looking more ready to kick on.

Agree entirely on both of these. What we've seen from them in CCL and from their reserves in MLS play suggests they have a really high ceiling. My guess is that we will be able to put them squarely in the Elite within a month, but as of now we don't know for sure.

And Tyler Adams is the bomb. Question. Which 19-year-old would you rather have on your team today? Tyler Adams or Jack Harrison?