Video Assistant Referee

[mgarbowski]

The current model only makes sense if networks take a loss, which is only feasible for a short while if it's your loss leader or something (E.G., NBC / EPL ).

I've heard it claimed that broadcast nets do take a loss, or barely profit, and the benefit to them is it lets them promote their other shows so it's a bit of a cascade effect. But I don't think anyone knows if that's actually true.

The economics for broadcast nets and cable are different, and both are trending down. ESPN's woes are well known, mostly due to people cutting cords. They and other cable companies make most of their revenue from subscriber fees. They pay for sports to justify giant subscriber fees which are charged to everyone regardless of whether we watch or not. Which has led to the cord cutting that is starting to kill them.
Meanwhile the broadcast nets have been losing viewers on everything including sports but making up for it by raising rates. They could do this seemingly impossible thing -- charge higher rates for fewer viewers -- because they still have the largest single chunks of eyeballs and advertisers have no alternative if they ever want to reach a substantial audience. But they are starting to face push back on that as well.

 

[mgarbowski]

To circle back to Midas Mulligan 's main point. I don't see sports bypassing nets to cut out the middle men and grab the profits all to themselves. I think right now they are maximizing what is probably for them a golden age of revenue. I think they might disaggregate in the future to maximize revenues but it will likely be less than they get now controlled for inflation and population growth. I doubt that they or the cable nets will ever be able to get active fans to pay enough per game, team or league to offset the coming inability to force every cable customer in the country to pay fees to subsidize sports they don't watch.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

To circle back to Midas Mulligan 's main point. I don't see sports bypassing nets to cut out the middle men and grab the profits all to themselves. I think right now they are maximizing what is probably for them a golden age of revenue. I think they might disaggregate in the future to maximize revenues but it will likely be less than they get now controlled for inflation and population growth. I doubt that they or the cable nets will ever be able to get active fans to pay enough per game, team or league to offset the coming inability to force every cable customer in the country to pay fees to subsidize sports they don't watch.

That's a false dichotomy. ESPN's subscriber fee is down 15-20% in the last couple of years.

If you want me to explain all of this sometime, I will. Now isn't the time when my wife is on my ass to go to dinner.

Not being a dick, btw. I live this every day. Not sure the rest of our team sees it the same way, either. But people other than me are allowed to be wrong. I just don't see how I'm not eventually right. There's literally no other outcome.

 

[Gotham Gator]

The first part is an accepted truth in advertising. It's why ESPN has traditionally had the some of, if not the, highest CPMs in cable. But what they've paid for content has killed their profit margin.

So back to my point, given how easy distribution has become (and will become easier), why would a sports league sell rights to a network if they could avoid the haircut by self-distributing and charging advertisers directly? The current model only makes sense if networks take a loss, which is only feasible for a short while if it's your loss leader or something (E.G., NBC / EPL ).

I think the answer is that the networks have a core competency of producing and distributing programming that is different than what sports leagues do, so there is a reason to have them involved. Plus, it is not like the leagues have been unable to grow revenue in the current environment. There is no shortage of producers/distributors who are interested in sports content, and the leagues have been great at squeezing every last bit of juice out of their fruit. That said, you are seeing leagues developing media arms and making some of their own content. Barriers to entry are not huge in that business, so perhaps we will see direct to consumer on a massive scale one day.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

As of now and my experiences thus far, VAR sucks.

http://deadspin.com/video-replay-in-soccer-sucks-1796224019

 

[Midas Mulligan]

To circle back to Midas Mulligan 's main point. I don't see sports bypassing nets to cut out the middle men and grab the profits all to themselves. I think right now they are maximizing what is probably for them a golden age of revenue. I think they might disaggregate in the future to maximize revenues but it will likely be less than they get now controlled for inflation and population growth. I doubt that they or the cable nets will ever be able to get active fans to pay enough per game, team or league to offset the coming inability to force every cable customer in the country to pay fees to subsidize sports they don't watch.

That's likely true.

But you know how it isn't? You sell your own digital packages and "audiences" (which advertisers, as ignorant as they and their agencies behave, will pay a premium for).

Look, from what I can tell, and I look at this every day of my life (btw, just realized I said this last post. It's a complaint, actually.) , video is a shit advertising medium. Linear television is actually one of the better deals out there.

And advertisers are being Kyser Soze'ed (into buying audiences).

It's total bullshit.

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

As of now and my experiences thus far, VAR sucks.

http://deadspin.com/video-replay-in-soccer-sucks-1796224019

It seriously might put me off the sport. I lost interest in football, partly because of the phenomenon he cites, that you don't celebrate a touchdown until you see if the referees approve it. Soccer amazed me that most of the time, you knew right away if the goal counted. I loved it. If this brings it back to that, they lose me.

 

[ktdNYCFC]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

I'm fine with technology. But it has to happen in real time. Like instant goal line tech, or assisted offsides calls. It's the going back in time thing I can't stand

 

[Gotham Gator]

I'm fine with technology. But it has to happen in real time. Like instant goal line tech, or assisted offsides calls. It's the going back in time thing I can't stand

We can do real time goal line calls now and are probably not that far from having real time offside calls done by computer. In tennis, the Hawkeye system has been using cameras and telemetry to figure out where a ball will bounce before it actually does. MLB uses a similar system to track every pitch, including things like speed at start and finish, the angle of break, and the spin on the ball. It can also track how quickly and far the players have run. It seems straightforward to do something like that offsides, with the only tricky part being disregarding players' arms.

Of course, things like handballs and fouls in the box cannot be automated.

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

Of course, things like handballs and fouls in the box cannot be automated.

Agreed. And those are the things that will remain subjective, whether its a ref on field or in booth.

 

[mgarbowski]

On Instant Replay this week Borg said the replay on the no-PK call involving Jack was inconclusive. Which matches what the announcers said in the game. They might all be idiots but they obviously are not solitary idiots and I think it's at best 50/50 that VAR would have changed this call. Meanwhile, it's nearly unanimous that replay proves the Villa PK should not have been awarded. I think it's likely VAR costs us 2 points Saturday.

 

[JGarrettLieb]

On Instant Replay this week Borg said the replay on the no-PK call involving Jack was inconclusive. Which matches what the announcers said in the game. They might all be idiots but they obviously are not solitary idiots and I think it's at best 50/50 that VAR would have changed this call. Meanwhile, it's nearly unanimous that replay proves the Villa PK should not have been awarded. I think it's likely VAR costs us 2 points Saturday.

I agree.

What we really need to know is what we think our net point gain/loss for VAR will be over the season. I get the feeling, that NYCFC are net screwed by bad referee decisions. However, if you were to ask any fan of any given team the question, "is your team screwed over by bad refereeing more often than not," just about every single response would be in the affirmative.

In short I don't trust my own, known, biases on this matter. And I wouldn't be able to give a unbiased analysis even if I went back and looked at every single second of our games this year. Though it would be very interesting if someone was able to go back and try to figure it out.

 

[mgarbowski]

I get the feeling, that NYCFC are net screwed by bad referee decisions. However, if you were to ask any fan of any given team the question, "is your team screwed over by bad refereeing more often than not," just about every single response would be in the affirmative.

I think this is a big reason why VAR is popular. People with the same biases but less self-aware than you can't help but think that VAR will help their team.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Borg is a Fucking Idiot.

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

Borg is a Fucking Idiot.

VAR will fix every bad call!!!11!!

Oh and Borg was much better in years past. He's definitely just a mouthpiece for the league this year. He agrees with ref on almost every call.

 

[Ulrich]

Borg is a Fucking Idiot.

(I can hear the excuse now)...."But, but, but the wet field made him sweep the leg!"

Not sure there could be a better vantage point than this video.

 

[Gotham Gator]

My comment to Borg on the MLS page. Feel free to chime in.


The Harrison takedown was not a penalty? Not enough force? Are you kidding?

He intentionally swept his leg out and clipped both of Harrison's ankles bringing him down. That is, to use a phrase, a stone cold penalty.

Check out this link if you disagree.

https://media.giphy.com/media/zqFIgfl6F0V2g/giphy.gif

What's funny is to look at Chad Marshall. He clearly is waiting for the penalty to be called - totally relaxes - and this is the guy who got a yellow for protesting the 2nd half call.

And I agree that the call when Villa went down in the 2nd half was just as bad. It was right in front of me in the stands, and I haven't seen a replay angle that makes me feel any differently. Yes, there was some contact, but he got his foot cleanly on the ball.

All this proves is that Sibiga may need a new job. Hey, maybe Chad Marshall can step in. He got both calls right!

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

My comment to Borg on the MLS page. Feel free to chime in.


The Harrison takedown was not a penalty? Not enough force? Are you kidding?

He intentionally swept his leg out and clipped both of Harrison's ankles bringing him down. That is, to use a phrase, a stone cold penalty.

Check out this link if you disagree.

https://media.giphy.com/media/zqFIgfl6F0V2g/giphy.gif

What's funny is to look at Chad Marshall. He clearly is waiting for the penalty to be called - totally relaxes - and this is the guy who got a yellow for protesting the 2nd half call.

And I agree that the call when Villa went down in the 2nd half was just as bad. It was right in front of me in the stands, and I haven't seen a replay angle that makes me feel any differently. Yes, there was some contact, but he got his foot cleanly on the ball.

All this proves is that Sibiga may need a new job. Hey, maybe Chad Marshall can step in. He got both calls right!

Its a trip. In Borg's world you can trip people if you are gentle about it?

 

[LionNYC]

My comment to Borg on the MLS page. Feel free to chime in.


The Harrison takedown was not a penalty? Not enough force? Are you kidding?

He intentionally swept his leg out and clipped both of Harrison's ankles bringing him down. That is, to use a phrase, a stone cold penalty.

Check out this link if you disagree.

https://media.giphy.com/media/zqFIgfl6F0V2g/giphy.gif

What's funny is to look at Chad Marshall. He clearly is waiting for the penalty to be called - totally relaxes - and this is the guy who got a yellow for protesting the 2nd half call.

And I agree that the call when Villa went down in the 2nd half was just as bad. It was right in front of me in the stands, and I haven't seen a replay angle that makes me feel any differently. Yes, there was some contact, but he got his foot cleanly on the ball.

All this proves is that Sibiga may need a new job. Hey, maybe Chad Marshall can step in. He got both calls right!

During this season we've seen twice a player receiving a yellow card for stopping an attack even if the defender made no contact at all with the attacker. Remember that great LA Galaxy video about the no contact yellow. Well if there is no contact a foul can be called, surely if contact does happen even if incidential because of the weather, IT'S A FOUL!