Western Conference Playoff Race

[Gotham Gator]

The Eastern Conference Race is well covered in a thread in another forum, but the Western Conference race is interesting all on its own.

At the top, you have a battle between 3 teams for the top 2 spots, Dallas, LA and Colorado. Dallas is 4 points clear of LA and 5 of Colorado. However, Colorado has 2 games in hand over the rest of the Top 6, so the question is whether the Rapids can close that gap with the extra contests. It helps that Colorado has a very favorable schedule, with 4 games against teams below the red line and only 2 games (home-away against Portland) against teams above it.

Real Salt Lake is sitting comfortably at 44 points. That's 8 points out of first place and 9 points above the red line. They seem unlikely to reach the Top 2, but unlikely to fall out of the playoffs.

The real action is at the red line. Portland sits at 41 points and Sporting KC at 40. That seems comfortably clear of Seattle at 35, BUT the Sounders have 2 games in hand over those teams. So, the question again is whether they can use those two games to close the gap. Seattle has been on good form since Lodiero was added, but it seems critical that they get Dempsey back and playing well. Seattle has tough games at Dallas and LA, but has 3 games against teams below the line as well before closing with RSL at home.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Current Western Conference Table (9/26)

(click to expand)

 

[adam]

The Eastern Conference Race is well covered in a thread in another forum, but the Western Conference race is interesting all on its own.

At the top, you have a battle between 3 teams for the top 2 spots, Dallas, LA and Colorado. Dallas is 4 points clear of LA and 5 of Colorado. However, Colorado has 2 games in hand over the rest of the Top 6, so the question is whether the Rapids can close that gap with the extra contests. It helps that Colorado has a very favorable schedule, with 4 games against teams below the red line and only 2 games (home-away against Portland) against teams above it.

Real Salt Lake is sitting comfortably at 44 points. That's 8 points out of first place and 9 points above the red line. They seem unlikely to reach the Top 2, but unlikely to fall out of the playoffs.

The real action is at the red line. Portland sits at 41 points and Sporting KC at 40. That seems comfortably clear of Seattle at 35, BUT the Sounders have 2 games in hand over those teams. So, the question again is whether they can use those two games to close the gap. Seattle has been on good form since Lodiero was added, but it seems critical that they get Dempsey back and playing well. Seattle has tough games at Dallas and LA, but has 3 games against teams below the line as well before closing with RSL at home.

The issue for Colorado is the second to last week of the season. Somehow they got scheduled with a home match vs San Jose on Thursday and then an away match vs Portland on Sunday! (I hope they never do that to us) You'd have to think they go for the more winnable match vs San Jose and have the B team play at Portland (basically giving away that match). I just can't see them killing the legs of their players and risking injury with only 1 week left in the regular season. So, although Colorado has 5 games remaining, I only see 4 winnable matches. But then again anything can happen...

 

[Gotham Gator]

FC Dallas continues at the top, 5 points clear of Colorado and LA. Colorado, however, has 2 games in hand. Meanwhile, Dallas and LA play each other twice in their last 2 games. These seem to give the edge to Colorado, but 5 points is a lot to make up.

RSL sits below these three, and could pass one or two, or get caught by one or two of the teams below them.

The interesting setup is at the bottom.

SKC - 43 points, 3 games left
POR - 41 points, 3 games left
-- RED LINE --
SEA - 38 points, 5 games left

Seattle is chasing Portland and SKC to get above the red line with 2 games in hand. The Sounders host Chicago mid-week, and with a victory would move ahead of Portland for the last playoff spot - equal on points, but winning the tiebreaker.

 

[Gotham Gator]

The issue for Colorado is the second to last week of the season. Somehow they got scheduled with a home match vs San Jose on Thursday and then an away match vs Portland on Sunday! (I hope they never do that to us) You'd have to think they go for the more winnable match vs San Jose and have the B team play at Portland (basically giving away that match). I just can't see them killing the legs of their players and risking injury with only 1 week left in the regular season. So, although Colorado has 5 games remaining, I only see 4 winnable matches. But then again anything can happen...

Yeah, that's tough to have 2 close games like that right at the end. Colorado have to hope that LA and Dallas split points in their 2 games against each other. Colorado also have 2 games against Houston in their last 5, which could help a lot.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Seattle has ridden the hottest streak in the league into 5th place, and they still have a game in hand. Portland is the only team below the line that can still catch up. They sit 2 points behind Sporting KC. Also action at the top, where Colorado will try to parlay 2 games in hand to close a 5 point gap with Dallas (who would likely have the edge in any tiebreaker).

56 - DAL: SEA, @LAG
51 - COL: @HOU, SNJ, @POR, HOU
48 - LAG: @HOU, DAL
45 - RSL: SKC, @SEA
44 - SEA: HOU, @DAL, RSL
43 - SKC: @RSL, @SNJ
-----
41 - POR: COL, @VAN

 

[adam]

Seattle has ridden the hottest streak in the league into 5th place, and they still have a game in hand. Portland is the only team below the line that can still catch up. They sit 2 points behind Sporting KC. Also action at the top, where Colorado will try to parlay 2 games in hand to close a 5 point gap with Dallas (who would likely have the edge in any tiebreaker).

56 - DAL: SEA, @LAG
51 - COL: @HOU, SNJ, @POR, HOU
48 - LAG: @HOU, DAL
45 - RSL: SKC, @SEA
44 - SEA: HOU, @DAL, RSL
43 - SKC: @RSL, @SNJ
-----
41 - POR: COL, @VAN

If RSL wins their next match and Seattle can get at least 1 point vs Houston & Dallas, then they control their own destiny for the 4 seed. If RSL loses, then they need 5 points total, barring a Portland loss to San Jose.

 

[SoupInNYC]

After the win at Houston over the weekend, I think the West is Colorado's to lose. They're 2 points back from Dallas with a game in hand and have a much easier schedule.

I have them finishing with 60 points with wins at home against San Jose and Houston, and losing at Portland.

Dallas I think finishes with 58 points, drawing at home against the red-hot Sounders and drawing at LAG.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Colorado has the edge for sure, but not a big one. Will be fun to see how things play out.

Who had Colorado winning the Supporters' Shield pre-season? This is a crazy fucking league.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Colorado has the edge for sure, but not a big one. Will be fun to see how things play out.

Who had Colorado winning the Supporters' Shield pre-season? This is a crazy fucking league.

If they weren't having such a fantastic season, Viera would be a shoe-in for Coach of the Year. It'll be hard for that award to not go to Pablo.

 

[Ulrich]

If they weren't having such a fantastic season, Viera would be a shoe-in for Coach of the Year. It'll be hard for that award to not go to Pablo.

Worst to First is always impressive unless an implosion occurs. Pablo could win the SS, get knocked out early in the playoffs, and lose the award, especially *IF* NYCFC makes it to the Final. I think a 2nd year club with a rookie manager making the Final would be a much bigger deal than the worst-2-first scenario from an established club.

 

[sbrylski]

Worst to First is always impressive unless an implosion occurs. Pablo could win the SS, get knocked out early in the playoffs, and lose the award, especially *IF* NYCFC makes it to the Final. I think a 2nd year club with a rookie manager making the Final would be a much bigger deal than the worst-2-first scenario from an established club.

Nah, I'd give it to the trophy winner. And they vote on this stuff before the Cup Playoffs are complete; it's supposed to be a regular season award. Even if the Rapids don't finish off the Shield, it's Pablo's to lose.

 

[sonastride]

Colorado wins 2-1 tonight against San Jose. This Supporters Shield race is getting exciting. Colorado is winning by 1 point but Dallas can still has a chance to win it.

What a league.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Everybody on equal footing now - 2 games left across the board.

57 - COL: @POR, HOU
56 - DAL: SEA, @LAG
48 - LAG: @HOU, DAL
45 - SEA: @DAL, RSL
45 - RSL: SKC, @SEA
43 - SKC: @RSL, @SNJ
-----
41 - POR: COL, @VAN

 

[adam]

Everybody on equal footing now - 2 games left across the board.

57 - COL: @POR, HOU
56 - DAL: SEA, @LAG
48 - LAG: @HOU, DAL
45 - SEA: @DAL, RSL
45 - RSL: SKC, @SEA
43 - SKC: @RSL, @SNJ
-----
41 - POR: COL, @VAN

I still don't consider Colorado's short turnaround to play at Portland "equal footing". But then we also discussed Dallas' issue with a CCL match in Guatamala and then travel to LA on short rest as well. So maybe it is equal in the end with each having a very difficult away match on short rest.

I can see it finishing COL 60 - DAL 59, with Colorado losing their lead this weekend and overtaking again in the last week.

I can see LA winning their last 2, meaning NYC needs to win at least one to stay ahead in CCL positioning.

And I'm going to go out on a limb and say RSL is the team on the outside looking in when it's all said and done.

 

[SoupInNYC]

I still don't consider Colorado's short turnaround to play at Portland "equal footing". But then we also discussed Dallas' issue with a CCL match in Guatamala and then travel to LA on short rest as well. So maybe it is equal in the end with each having a very difficult away match on short rest.

I can see it finishing COL 60 - DAL 59, with Colorado losing their lead this weekend and overtaking again in the last week.

I can see LA winning their last 2, meaning NYC needs to win at least one to stay ahead in CCL positioning.

And I'm going to go out on a limb and say RSL is the team on the outside looking in when it's all said and done.

I think Gotham Gator meant equal footing as literal as in games played.

NYCFC is eliminated from supporters shield contention with a draw/win by Colorado the last 2 games or a loss/draw by NYCFC the last two games. We are effectively out of that running.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Regardless, Portland gets the big result setting up some big time drama going into the last game.

Dallas now has the Supporters' Shield unless they lose at LA and Colorado wins at home against Houston, but that result isn't completely out of the question. Still, the Galaxy have nothing to play for as they will finish 3rd no matter what happens.

Down at the red line, it's a total rugby scrum with 4 teams able to finish anywhere from 4th place - and a home playoff game - to 7th place and out. Portland is in 7th, tied on points with Sporting KC, and only 1 back of Seattle and 2 back of RSL.

59 - DAL: @LAG
57 - COL: HOU
51 - LAG: DAL
46- RSL: @SEA
45 - SEA: RSL
44 - SKC: @SNJ
-----
44 - POR: @VAN