2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

Ulrich · Sep 29, 2016

canchon said:
This. I don't know why people think NYCFC is going to go to Houston and get a multi-goal beatdown. Houston has only lost 2 games at home all year and has gone 3-1-2 in their last five. This is not an easy game folks and NYCFC will need to dig deep to get a result. NYCFC also does not play well in heat and humidity. A tie would be adequate, and a win would be a massive result and would be badly needed to get the 1/2 seed.

Houston has had a crazy home field advantage with Texas weather over the summer - teams just can't go in there for two days and be acclimated. Hence they got results in previous games.

Tomorrow in Houston it's going to be a high 82/61 low with low humidity. They kickoff at 6pm local time so the sun should be going down - I don't think the weather will play a big role.

ktdNYCFC · Sep 29, 2016

canchon said:
This. I don't know why people think NYCFC is going to go to Houston and get a multi-goal beatdown. Houston has only lost 2 games at home all year and has gone 3-1-2 in their last five. This is not an easy game folks and NYCFC will need to dig deep to get a result. NYCFC also does not play well in heat and humidity. A tie would be adequate, and a win would be a massive result and would be badly needed to get the 1/2 seed.

JK JK, we all know we could face an 8 man Chicago and still ship 4 goals. BUT YOU HAVE TO BELIEVE!!

Midas Mulligan · Sep 29, 2016

Ulrich said:
Does it really matter if the semis or the final? Both are home/away and while it'd be great to have a proxy do our dirty work, there's no guarantee that proxy will succeed and we'd have to play them anyway (or then play the proxy that was tough enough to take RB down). Provided Hernandez isn't exploited, the lineup we fielded last week would have been more than a handful for RB to deal with - their defense does not do well when faced with multiple speed players.

I know for you RB is the equivalent to a scary clown doll, but sometimes it's easier to throw them in the trash rather than letting them play with knives in the kitchen.

No. They are the bully who beats us up and takes our lunch money. Outrunning them from the bus stop to home one time doesn't change that.

I went over my competitive reasons elsewhere, but in this instance, I just want to delay meeting them as long as possible so we can have a longer playoff run.

As for your arguments as to why it will be different, you should watch it. You brought down all of this funk before the first time we played them with your multi-goal ass-whipping predictions. I know it's your fault, and I won't be convinced otherwise. LALALALALALLALA [fingers in ears]

ktdNYCFC · Sep 29, 2016

Midas Mulligan said:
LALALALALALLALA [fingers in ears]

Gotham Gator · Sep 29, 2016

LionNYC said:

I really don't understand the GIF here. The context seems to be that NYC will win, but this man's face is painted Houston's colors.

Gotham Gator · Sep 29, 2016

Ulrich said:
Does it really matter if the semis or the final? Both are home/away and while it'd be great to have a proxy do our dirty work, there's no guarantee that proxy will succeed and we'd have to play them anyway (or then play the proxy that was tough enough to take RB down). Provided Hernandez isn't exploited, the lineup we fielded last week would have been more than a handful for RB to deal with - their defense does not do well when faced with multiple speed players.

I know for you RB is the equivalent to a scary clown doll, but sometimes it's easier to throw them in the trash rather than letting them play with knives in the kitchen.

Midas Mulligan said:
No. They are the bully who beats us up and takes our lunch money. Outrunning them from the bus stop to home one time doesn't change that.

I went over my competitive reasons elsewhere, but in this instance, I just want to delay meeting them as long as possible so we can have a longer playoff run.

As for your arguments as to why it will be different, you should watch it. You brought down all of this funk before the first time we played them with your multi-goal ass-whipping predictions. I know it's your fault, and I won't be convinced otherwise. LALALALALALLALA [fingers in ears]

Midas, they are too much in your head. They are just another team, and we can and have beaten them.

That said, I will say there could be a benefit to delaying our meeting, and it is that someone else could upset them before we play. If they finish 3rd, they would probably get DC United, and they've struggled with DCU. In fact, having that lineup is probably our dream scenario. If we can otherwise delay the matchup until the conference finals, then the conference semi-finals will be tough for both sides.

But, why shouldn't we embrace this opportunity to get that monkey off our backs once and for all?

Gotham Gator · Sep 29, 2016

canchon said:
NYCFC also has 2 more wins than Philadelphia (remember, total wins is first tiebreaker, not goal differential) so as of right now has a big advantage on the 3-4 tiebreaker. Most likely one more win, or a tie and a Philly loss, clinches 3rd for the Pigeons.

EDITED (thanks to some help in subsequent posts)

If we win - we get at least 3rd if PHI ties or loses, otherwise at least 4th.
If we tie - we get at least 3rd if PHI loses and both of MON and DCU tie or lose; we get at least 4th if only two of those things happen.
If we lose - we get at least 4th if both MON and DCU lose.

SoupInNYC · Sep 29, 2016

Gotham Gator said:
If we win - we get 3rd.
If we tie - we get 3rd if none of PHI, MON or DCU win, and we get at least 4th if only one of them win.
If we lose - we get 3rd if all of PHI, MON and DCU lose, and we get at least 4th if two of three lose.

We wouldn't necessarily get 3rd just by winning. We would also need Philly to lose or draw. We could lose our next two, and they could win their final two. We would be even on points and they would have made up the 2 win difference in tiebreaker, then it would go to goal differential.

Sabo · Sep 29, 2016

SoupInNYC said:
We wouldn't necessarily get 3rd just by winning. We would also need Philly to lose or draw. We could lose our next two, and they could win their final two. We would be even on points and they would have made up the 2 win difference in tiebreaker, then it would go to goal differential.

If we win and PHI wins this weekend, then at the end of the season NJRB, NYCFC and PHI could all be on 51 points with the same 14/11/9 W/L/T record and tiebreakers kicking in. We would almost certainly be the loser of the tiebreakers on goal differential since we are even with PHI right now at +2 and would be winning 1 game and losing 2 while PHI is winning 3.

I am still a Union fan for the rest of the regular season as far as I know. If they can take 4 points from NJRB we will be in good shape.

Ulrich · Sep 29, 2016

Midas Mulligan said:
No. They are the bully who beats us up and takes our lunch money. Outrunning them from the bus stop to home one time doesn't change that.

I went over my competitive reasons elsewhere, but in this instance, I just want to delay meeting them as long as possible so we can have a longer playoff run.

As for your arguments as to why it will be different, you should watch it. You brought down all of this funk before the first time we played them with your multi-goal ass-whipping predictions. I know it's your fault, and I won't be convinced otherwise. LALALALALALLALA [fingers in ears]

Gotham Gator · Sep 29, 2016

SoupInNYC said:
We wouldn't necessarily get 3rd just by winning. We would also need Philly to lose or draw. We could lose our next two, and they could win their final two. We would be even on points and they would have made up the 2 win difference in tiebreaker, then it would go to goal differential.

Sabo said:
If we win and PHI wins this weekend, then at the end of the season NJRB, NYCFC and PHI could all be on 51 points with the same 14/11/9 W/L/T record and tiebreakers kicking in. We would almost certainly be the loser of the tiebreakers on goal differential since we are even with PHI right now at +2 and would be winning 1 game and losing 2 while PHI is winning 3.

I am still a Union fan for the rest of the regular season as far as I know. If they can take 4 points from NJRB we will be in good shape.

Good points. I had seen us up 2 victories and forgot to consider that they could make that up as part of the 6-point swing.

So, a win tomorrow night guarantees us at least 4th, but we need Philly to lose or draw to get us to 3rd.

FootyLovin · Sep 29, 2016

Gotham Gator said:
Strength of schedule update. It's really down to 3 teams at this point. Will be nearly impossible for anyone else to crawl into the Top 3.

Not so. Philly controls their own destiny in passing NJ with two big wins. We, OTOH, will be well out of their grasp.

Midas Mulligan · Sep 30, 2016

Gotham Gator said:
Midas, they are too much in your head. They are just another team, and we can and have beaten them.

That said, I will say there could be a benefit to delaying our meeting, and it is that someone else could upset them before we play. If they finish 3rd, they would probably get DC United, and they've struggled with DCU. In fact, having that lineup is probably our dream scenario. If we can otherwise delay the matchup until the conference finals, then the conference semi-finals will be tough for both sides.

But, why shouldn't we embrace this opportunity to get that monkey off our backs once and for all?

We have a net (8) goal difference in 3 games. That's all that's in my head when it comes to them. Given how our manager got tossed midway through the last one and the players melted like office building toilet paper, it's their heads we should worry about.

All of the competitive reasons you list, I agree with. There are others that I included in my prior list, as well. We had like a 3 page debate about this, and I stand by the fact that it is best for us to avoid them. That happens, and maybe the monkey will help us lift the Cup.

Gotham Gator · Sep 30, 2016

Gotham Gator said:
I thought it would be fun to update this. Nice site and a good find by Sabo.

SS Win: 0.8%
EC Win: 8%
2-Seed: 27%
3-Seed: 61%
4-Seed: 4%
5-Seed: <1%

Points in last 3 matches & odds of making Top 2
9 - 98%
7 - 85%
6 - 71%
5 - 55%
4 - 32%
3 - 18%
2 - 13%
1 - 1%
0 - 0%

Further update on seeding probabilities after Wednesday's games. Getting at least 6 points gives us a really good shot at the Top 2. 5 points and we are better than 50-50. Need at least 3 points to have any realistic chance.

SS Win: 1.0%
EC Win: 11%
2-Seed: 26% ---> Top 2 = 37%, up from 35%
3-Seed: 58%
4-Seed: 5%
5-Seed: <1%

Points in last 3 matches & odds of making Top 2 in the East.
9 - 99+%
7 - 89%
6 - 80%
5 - 58%
4 - 36%
3 - 22% (1 win); 16% (3 ties)
2 - 1%
1 - 1%
0 - <1%

Link to the site.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html

JayH · Sep 30, 2016

I like the chances of our Oct 23 game being a playoff game of sorts. That's a great warm-up for the real(er) deal.

LionNYC · Sep 30, 2016

Gotham Gator said:
Further update on seeding probabilities after Wednesday's games. Getting at least 6 points gives us a really good shot at the Top 2. 5 points and we are better than 50-50. Need at least 3 points to have any realistic chance.

SS Win: 1.0%
EC Win: 11%
2-Seed: 26% ---> Top 2 = 37%, up from 35%
3-Seed: 58%
4-Seed: 5%
5-Seed: <1%

Points in last 3 matches & odds of making Top 2 in the East.
9 - 99+%
7 - 89%
6 - 80%
5 - 58%
4 - 36%
3 - 22% (1 win); 16% (3 ties)
2 - 1%
1 - 1%
0 - <1%

Link to the site.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html

Just win baby

Gotham Gator · Sep 30, 2016

JayH said:
I like the chances of our Oct 23 game being a playoff game of sorts. That's a great warm-up for the real(er) deal.

I am really looking forward to that game. Besides the fact that it will have been 2 months since I could make it to Yankee Stadium, the whole atmosphere is going to be crazy. All those matches kicking off at the same time, seeding will certainly be in doubt at kickoff, everyone excited about our upcoming playoff run - It's going to be LIT.

I am curious to see how they handle having scores up for the other games so people can keep track. Would be great if they cut to video of the other games at halftime and once the match is over.

LionNYC · Sep 30, 2016

Gotham Gator said:
I am really looking forward to that game. Besides the fact that it will have been 2 months since I could make it to Yankee Stadium, the whole atmosphere is going to be crazy. All those matches kicking off at the same time, seeding will certainly be in doubt at kickoff, everyone excited about our upcoming playoff run - It's going to be LIT.

I am curious to see how they handle having scores up for the other games so people can keep track. Would be great if they cut to video of the other games at halftime and once the match is over.

I pray they have the scores around the league on the smaller video board rather than the live tweeting and stuff. I don't want to have my phone out the entire match. It would be even cooler if they displayed announcements of goals rather than just changing the score.

danger · Sep 30, 2016

Maybe players wouldn't pay any attention but it sounds like kind of a distraction. Imagine that we can win 1st or 2nd in East, but only if ______ happens in X other game. Do you want them thinking about ______ in game X while they're on the field?

FootyLovin · Sep 30, 2016

danger said:
Maybe players wouldn't pay any attention but it sounds like kind of a distraction. Imagine that we can win 1st or 2nd in East, but only if ______ happens in X other game. Do you want them thinking about ______ in game X while they're on the field?

No. You want the players focused. No info on the boards. Leave it to the coaches to decide what to share.

2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

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