2018 - Running With the Numbers and the Quest for Everything

Last year's slump was either 11 points and 2 wins in 9 games, or 7 points and 1 win in 7, depending on how you define when it started. The team PPG dropped in the 7 games from 1.852 to 1.676 for a 0.175 (math seems off due to rounding) reduction.

This year the slump to date is an easily identified 9-games (so far) with just 7 points and 1 win in the 9 games. The team PPG dropped in the 7 games from 2.048 to 1.667 for a 0.381 reduction.

Last year's slump coincided with injury to Villa, the team's only reliable goal scorer in the second half of the season. This year, the slump has a multitude of arguable causes, which both diffuses responsibility yet should be more damning.
 
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mgarbowski said:
Last year's slump was either 11 points and 2 wins in 9 games, or 7 points and 1 win in 7, depending on how you define when it started. The team PPG PPG dropped in the 7 games from 1.852 to 1.676 for a 0.175 (math seems off due to rounding) reduction.

This year the slump to date is an easily identified 9-games (so far) with just 7 points and 1 win in the 9 games. The team PPG PPG dropped in the 7 games from 2.048 to 1.667 for a 0.381 reduction.

Last year's slump coincided with injury to Villa, the team's only reliable goal scorer in the second half of the season. This year, the slump has a multitude of arguable causes, which both diffuses responsibility yet should be more damning.
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I think coinciding with adam adam 's statement is the most damning yet.
Here are some of my damning facts:
  • We won vs Toronto on August 12th
  • August 14th, Quote: "I won't say it this year, but you know what's coming."
  • 3pts from 6 games followed.
  • In 6 games, that ties us with SJ and LA Galaxy on form. The only worse teams on form in those 6 games are Colorado and Orlando.
  • We lost our first home game of the season.
adam adam , are you sure you don't look like this:
giphy.gif
?
For those who don't know, that's Adam Conover from "Adam Ruins Everything" and College Humor.
 
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NYCFC played 15 games under Viera and now has 15 under Torrent. The Viera schedule included 8 Away and 7 Home, and the Away games included SKC, Portland, LAFC, Red Bulls and Atlanta. NYC also faced Atlanta at home, which was the toughest Home matchup given Atlanta's Away record this year. Dome's schedule has had 8 Home and 7 Away. The toughest matchups were Away to Seattle, Columbus and Philly, none ranked higher than 4th in their conference.

NYC under Vieira lost 3 games, earned 28 points, scored 30 goals and conceded 20.
NYC under Torrent lost 5 games, earned 22 points, scored 22 goals and conceded 19.

The idea that losing Herrera had no effect on team defense but killed the team's offense is counterintuitive at best.
You can blame it on Viera jumping ship, Dome unable to pick up on the fly, or bad luck.
You can blame it on the rain, blame it on Rio, or you can blame it on me Terry, it don't matter to me now.
But the team scored 27% fewer goals against a much, much easier schedule since Dome took over, and won 21% fewer points.

 
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mgarbowski said:
NYCFC played 15 games under Viera and now has 15 under Torrent. The Viera schedule included 8 Away and 7 Home, and the Away games included SKC, Portland, LAFC, Red Bulls and Atlanta. NYC also faced Atlanta at home, which was the toughest Home matchup given Atlanta's Away record this year. Dome's schedule has had 8 Home and 7 Away. The toughest matchups were Away to Seattle, Columbus and Philly, none ranked higher than 4th in their conference.

NYC under Vieira lost 3 games, earned 28 points, scored 30 goals and conceded 20.
NYC under Torrent lost 5 games, earned 22 points, scored 22 goals and conceded 19.

The idea that losing Herrera had no effect on team defense but killed the team's offense is counterintuitive at best.
You can blame it on Viera jumping ship, Dome unable to pick up on the fly, or bad luck.
You can blame it on the rain, blame it on Rio, or you can blame it on me Terry, it don't matter to me now.
But the team scored 27% fewer goals against a much, much easier schedule since Dome took over, and won 21% fewer points.

Click to expand...
 
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mgarbowski said:
NYC under Vieira lost 3 games, earned 28 points, scored 30 goals and conceded 20.
NYC under Torrent lost 5 games, earned 22 points, scored 22 goals and conceded 19.
Click to expand...
In a way these numbers almost go against your point though. I read these two lines and said to myself, "huh, so not really all that much worse under Dome after all, just two wins and a few goals." But then you went ahead and said things are so much worse now. I think a two game swing after (somewhat) unexpectedly changing coaches mid-season doesn't really seem that bad to me. Could've been much worse, and folks are now back and healthy mostly so there's a chance things could improve.
 
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And Philly is now 4pts begins NYCFC with 4 games to go. Columbus only 3pts.....

Said it a while ago, but we’re looking at 5th place with that final game meaning something.
 
mgarbowski said:
Got it.
MLS app had it wrong, showing 44 for Philly a good hour after their game ended. Since fixed.
Chicago game suddenly must win.
Click to expand...
We’ve pretty blown the insurmountable lead built the first half of the season. To be fighting over 3/4/5 at this stage is pathetic.
 
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Shwafta said:
Same thing happened at the end last year.
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Not like this. This is a fiery tailspin and it started 9 games ago.

Of our last four matches, I’d favor us in only one, versus Chicago. Minnesota is damn hard to beat at home, DC has built a fortress at Audi Field, and Philly is playing like a team in a rhythm.

Us, we’re disjointed, hesitant, lacking lethal focus in the box, and can’t even figure out our starting 11. I hope we turn it around, but at this point I have zero faith in the coaching staff to have the team prepared for the end of the regular season or the playoffs.
 
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Ulrich said:
Not like this. This is a fiery tailspin and it started 9 games ago.

Of our last four matches, I’d favor us in only one, versus Chicago. Minnesota is damn hard to beat at home, DC has built a fortress at Audi Field, and Philly is playing like a team in a rhythm.

Us, we’re disjointed, hesitant, lacking lethal focus in the box, and can’t even figure out our starting 11. I hope we turn it around, but at this point I have zero faith in the coaching staff to have the team prepared for the end of the regular season or the playoffs.
Click to expand...

It actually is pretty similar. This has gone on for longer, but last season NYCFC ended 1-2-4 in their last 7 games, with a total of 7 goals scored and 8 goals allowed. So it is fair to say this is the 2nd straight season they've crashed late in the year.
 
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ZYanksRule said:
It actually is pretty similar. This has gone on for longer, but last season NYCFC ended 1-2-4 in their last 7 games, with a total of 7 goals scored and 8 goals allowed. So it is fair to say this is the 2nd straight season they've crashed late in the year.
Click to expand...
We backed into the playoffs last year and were still 2nd in the East. This year we could end up 5th as a worst case and 3rd best case. I’d say that worse than last year.
 
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Ulrich said:
We backed into the playoffs last year and were still 2nd in the East. This year we could end up 5th as a worst case and 3rd best case. I’d say that worse than last year.
Click to expand...

No question this year is far worse than last year, but it is notable that something similar also happened in 2017.
 
The Company We Keep
Other teams with one win in the last 9 games, or worse.
Chicago* (one win in eleven) 20
Houston (one win in twelve) 18
New England (one win in twelve) 16
Orlando (one win in twenty) 21
Honorable Mentions
Minnesota** 17 and San Jose 23, both one win in eight games.
The other number next to each team is their place in the Supporters' Shield standings.

* Hey, we play them this week. Maybe there's hope.
** Hey, we play them this week, too. OTOH, six of their last 8 have been Away and we play them in Minnesota.

Playoff Seeding Update
Three point lead on Columbus; four point lead on Philadelphia. All three teams have 4 games left.
Columbus
NYC has 1 more win. If they tie on points they likely end up tied on wins as well. NYC currently has a +12 GD advantage.
Philadelphia
Teams are tied on wins. If they tie on points the Union likely ends up with more wins. NYC currently has a +15 GD advantage, FWIW.
Schedule
Home games in CAPS:
NYCFC plays CHICAGO, Minnesota, DC United, PHILADELPHIA
Columbus plays PHILADELPHIA, Montreal, Orlando, MINNESOTA
Philadelphia plays Columbus, MINNESOTA, RED BULLS, New York City

The Columbus schedule is easiest. The NYC and Philadelphia schedules are close in difficulty, with the advantage to NYC since they play each other in the Bronx (or maybe Queens). But it is best if the Union is disposed of before then. Best case scenario is if NYC can beat Chicago midweek, and Columbus beats the Union on the weekend. That's a 7-point lead over the Union with 2 games for each before the H2H on decision day. Then, if NYC can just draw 1 of the 2 Away games, the Union would need to win both of its home games, including against the Red Bulls, to have a shot. A win and a draw for the Union in those games would leave them 4 points back going into the last game. If NYC could win one of its Away games (plus the best case scenario) then it will have clinched over the Union. Basically, any combination of NYC wins and Union losses that adds up to 3 will clinch*** 4th Place for NYC, and that almost has to start with a win over Chicago on Wednesday, and if so, it could wrap up by Saturday.
Maybe I will go Wednesday night.
*** Technically, DC, Montreal and New England have to be dealt with also, but the scenarios where any of them survive while the Union is eliminated are quite unlikely.

Screen Shot 2018-09-24 at 7.18.41 AM.png Screen Shot 2018-09-24 at 7.19.04 AM.png Screen Shot 2018-09-24 at 7.19.29 AM.png 2018-09-24-EAST-LINE.png

Apart from everything else, I really wanted 60 points this year, regardless of where the team finished. And it seemed so likely for so long.
 
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