You've just indisputably proven that playoffs truly suck. Which of course they do. Thank you.Also a league without playoffs, in which all you have to do is, you know, be the team with the best ratio of wins to losses to draws. Imagine the possibilities if all we had to do was just be the best team?
2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
I'm not sure the expected points algorithm captures the effect of our goalie.
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The math solution is so obvious. Win our remaining home games. 13 wins. Playoffs here we come.
Duh.
Luck or poor shot quality: I have no idea what his index is supposed to measure then.
Gee, that's what I've been saying - that Villa has been selfish with his plethora of shitty shots - but everybody keeps saying a forward is gonna forward (etc)..... I think a smart player has to be a smart player and recognize that a knee-jerk shot just gives the ball back to the other team, whereas a pass keeps a play alive.
Luck. The stats are supposed to control for the quality of the shots. Just because we are leading the league in shots and have more speculative (or more likely blocked) shots than average doesn't mean we also aren't taking a lot of good shots. We are.
Teams that lead the league in possession are typically among the best teams in the league. I think we are kicking it aimlessly around the back less than we did last year. The possession stat is because we are playing good soccer.
Unlike a year ago when we were hoping for mid-season pickups to turn our season around, this team is perfectly capable of winning 3 in a row right now and vaulting up the standings in the crowded East -- especially since the Crew just had a serious implosion last night.
Big game tonight against a conference rival. We will feel a lot better to be in 4th than 8th tomorrow.
Teams that lead the league in possession are typically among the best teams in the league. I think we are kicking it aimlessly around the back less than we did last year. The possession stat is because we are playing good soccer.
Unlike a year ago when we were hoping for mid-season pickups to turn our season around, this team is perfectly capable of winning 3 in a row right now and vaulting up the standings in the crowded East -- especially since the Crew just had a serious implosion last night.
Big game tonight against a conference rival. We will feel a lot better to be in 4th than 8th tomorrow.
They aren't good shots when your DP striker kicks them into row Z at least twice a game.
And no, this isn't like a new thing or a forum thing. In less than 1.5 seasons, there are a lot of predictable things about Villa. He kicks one v ones right at the keeper. He's going to cut inside and hit one 30 yars over. He's going to yank an easy shot into side netting while overlooking an open teammate.
It's every game. It's what he does. He's our best player, so we live with it.
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I also think these stats are a reflection of the conflict between our squad and Vieira's plan. I mentioned it elsewhere, but he's playing a formation and a squad that should do very well on counters. We have a lot of speed in our wingers, and a quarterback in midfield who should be serving Villa and the wingers perfect balls to get in behind the back line before they know what happened. We have defensive mids who intercept and cause turnovers, not really "holding" mids. All of this should lend itself nicely to a quick counterattack, but PV wants 60% possession. He wants to get the ball up to the final third and pass it around until something opens up. It's classic Man City '16 this season, and it's boring as hell to watch.
I've long thought that the most frustrating, stupid thing in sports is a coach/manager who insists on playing a style or system for which his players are not suited.
But now I have discovered that what is worse is
- having an over-manager who lives in another country,
- who decided what style the team would play before it had any players,
- then the team doesn't get the right players for that system,
- or a field that suits it either
- but you stick with that style
I said it before the season started. I am saying it now. I will say it again after the season is over. Villa is going to score more goals than Giovinco this season. We will live with it and be Bobby F'in McFerrin happy with it.
I'm not very good at multi-tasking, but I'm pretty sure Lalas (?) made mention that Villa and Giovinco now have the same number of goals since Gio entered MLS.
We're in 4th Place here which is the same as the regular points standings so there's no crazy adjustment there. Philly is in first on PPG, but just third place on points. New England has played 4 more games than Chicago right now. On some level they're at the bottom of the table anyway so who cares but why?
Fun Facts
- We never had a PPG or Projected Win total this high last year after Game 3. We only once had a projected win total above 40 after Game 3, and that was surprisingly late at Game 31, but we lost the last 3 and slipped.
- We didn't win our third game last year until Game 15 on June 13.
- We didn't win our second road game until Game 16 on June 20.
- We are in a 4-way tie for 2nd place in the entire league with 2 road wins (Toronto has 3).
- Our 1.5PPG on the road is the best in the league. OK it's 4 games. These are fun facts leave me alone.
Our next 2 games, both on the road, are against Portland and Toronto. But if we get results.....
Here is a sample of what records we need to achieve in our remaining games to reach various point levels. It's always nice when these get easier than the week before.
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Yeah! What a dick he is.How bout centering those spreadsheet columns buddy
How bout centering those spreadsheet columns buddy
I'm offended.
Not by either of these posts.
I'm just offended at the moment by something completely irrelevant and took this opportunity to announce it.
Oh, and I like to keep my ones, tens, hundreds, etc. in line, which means I should force 3 digits to the right of decimal on the PPG column..
It is so completely impossible for me to explain to my loved ones how very, very much psychological and intellectual value I get from this forum.
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