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2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

Discussion in 'NYCFC Supporters Discussion' started by mgarbowski, May 1, 2016.

  1. Gotham Gator

    Gotham Gator Senior Member Donor

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    Thanks. Will fix.
     
  2. Gotham Gator

    Gotham Gator Senior Member Donor

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    What is your prediction for the Final Standings?

    Here is mine
    55 - NJR
    54 - NYC
    53 - TOR
    47 - DCU
    46 - PHI
    45 - MON
    ---
    45 - NE
    38 - COL
    36 - ORL
    27 - CHI
     
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  3. Gotham Gator

    Gotham Gator Senior Member Donor

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    Generally agree with all of this. Let's think also about Philly. The MLS website has an interesting breakdown of the recent form of all the teams. Philly is the worst since the beginning of September at 2 points in 5 games. That might also be a good matchup.

    Of course, Philly (along with DC and Montreal) may also slip below the red line. New England is at Chicago in the penultimate game. If the Revolution come out of there with 3 points, then they will be in a position to pass Philly and DC if those teams don't win, and Montreal if the Impact don't at least tie Toronto. Plus, Montreal plays at New England to finish the year. That could be a game to watch if it is for a playoff spot.
     
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  4. SoupInNYC

    SoupInNYC Senior Member Elite Donor

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    Here is what I have:
    55 - NJR
    54 - NYC
    52 - TOR
    48 - MON
    47 - DCU
    46 - PHL
    ---
    44 - NE
    41 - CLB
    36 - ORL
    27 - CHI
     
  5. Viewfrom226

    Viewfrom226 Active Member Elite Donor Seasoned Supporter Away Days Liaison

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    They are definitely scrapping as well, though they've looked better than Montreal in the recent matches I've seen even if they haven't always gotten the results. That stretch of five included four on the road, though it also included a home draw against the very Montreal team I was ragging on and a 3-0 loss in Chicago.
     
  6. Gotham Gator

    Gotham Gator Senior Member Donor

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    Another update on seeding probabilities after this past weekend. You can see last week's odds above. Getting at least 6 points guarantees us the Top 2. Even as few as 2 points and we are better than 50-50.

    SS Win: 1.3%
    EC Win: 30% (up from 11%)
    2-Seed: 43% ---> Top 2 = 73%, up from 37%
    3-Seed: 27% (can't finish lower than this)

    Points in last 2 matches & odds of making Top 2 in the East.
    6 - 100%
    4 - 94%
    3 - 88%
    2 - 66%
    1 - 34%
    0 - 28%

    Link to the site.

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/NYCFC.html
     
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  7. Viewfrom226

    Viewfrom226 Active Member Elite Donor Seasoned Supporter Away Days Liaison

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    Nice. Our biggest disadvantage had been the 2 road games while Tor and NYRB had one, but winning on the road while Toronto dropped points at home was so huge.

    The 88% for 3 points is pretty encouraging. The game in DC is tough, but there is pretty much no excuse for not getting a W against CLB on the last day at home even if we have historically struggled badly against them (only East team we've never beaten I think, though we've only played them once at home so far).
     
  8. Gotham Gator

    Gotham Gator Senior Member Donor

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  9. SoupInNYC

    SoupInNYC Senior Member Elite Donor

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    Whereas Dallas has a game against the red-hot Sounders and then at LAG which is always a tough place to play. Even if Colorado doesn't get a result in its toughest remaining game (at Portland), they can still reach 60 points.
     
  10. LionNYC

    LionNYC Senior Member Staff Member Elite Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    NYCFC beats DC, Columbus beats New Jersey, and Montreal beats Toronto would put us at a >99% probability of winning the east.
     
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  11. Kenny

    Kenny Junior Member Elite Donor

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    Highly unlikely that Columbus beats NJ but the other two are very possible
     
  12. LionNYC

    LionNYC Senior Member Staff Member Elite Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Believe!
     
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  13. Viewfrom226

    Viewfrom226 Active Member Elite Donor Seasoned Supporter Away Days Liaison

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    Looking back at this, which I first posted on July 5th just after we had beaten the RB at home. This was a path to 50 points to all but guarantee us the playoffs. We, of course, happily exceeded that total and the red line is going to come in a bit south of it.

    Cat (1) - We are at 6 of 6, with Columbus remaining. So, it would clearly be a disappointment to not hit at least the 7 of 9 I had mapped and we should be expecting 9 of 9.

    Cat (2) - 7 of 9 thanks to beating both Col and LA. So, +3 there.

    Cat (3) - 7 of 18 win the match against DC to come. Wins at NE and Mon, and a draw at CLB. So, a draw at DC gets us to the 8 of 21 I was looking for.

    Cat (4) - 4 of 9 due to the win at Houston and draw in SJ.

    So, draw at DC and win home v CLB and we end up at 55 points with the +5 all coming thanks to our home form.
     
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  14. Tom in Fairfield CT

    Tom in Fairfield CT Senior Member Elite Donor Donor

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    It's soccer and more specifically MLS, so all results are more than possible.

    Also, Montreal's coach should be banished from football if he is benching drogba for not playing defense.
     
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  15. canchon

    canchon Active Member Seasoned Supporter

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    Hasn't Colorado won something like 4 games in the last four months? And now they are going to rattle off four in a row?

    I agree it's a soft schedule, but MLS is MLS and it is proven every year that "games in hand" is overestimated. I think Dallas has one hand on the shield.
     
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  16. Gotham Gator

    Gotham Gator Senior Member Donor

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    Well, 4 in the last 2.5, but I get your point.

    I'm just not sure how many more points Dallas is going to get. They are home against the hottest team in the league and then travel to play the Galaxy. Anything fewer than 4 points out of those, and Colorado can get ahead, I think.
     
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  17. FootyLovin

    FootyLovin No better obsession Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Says the guy who constantly rips a certain NYC player for his defensive liabilities even while he was one of the hottest scorers in the league.

    ;)
     
  18. Tom in Fairfield CT

    Tom in Fairfield CT Senior Member Elite Donor Donor

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    Last I checked drogba doesn't play central mid.
     
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  19. Viewfrom226

    Viewfrom226 Active Member Elite Donor Seasoned Supporter Away Days Liaison

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    I haven't seen all of their recent matches, but when I have watched them he is creating the same issue. Lack of pressure on the ball upfront and lack of covering space means they end up defending too deep and have to play on the back foot.

    I actually think their issue is fairly similar to the issue we have with our starting midfield, albeit in a slightly different place on the pitch.

    The difference for them is that their record is markedly worse when Drogba starts while ours is good when Lampard plays in part because of all the goals he's scored but also despite the defensive holes he creates as you've rightly (in my mind at least) noted.
     
  20. FootyLovin

    FootyLovin No better obsession Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Last I checked, neither does Lampard.

    Once again ... ;)
     
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