2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

You're completely right. I'm not blind to this. But when making predictions in sports you can go 2 ways:
1. You can make wild predictions of unusual events that almost never come true, and then when 1 in 1,000 does, beat your chest and say "I predicted that."
2. Or you can look for trends and predict that things will go the way they almost always go. You'll never predict the rare Black Swan event, but you'lee get a lot more right and be more useful.

Leicester was properly at 5,000 to 1 last year, and came through. But if you predict that the team with the longest odds in the top league of English football won't be champions for 100 years, you'd be right 99 times. You could even be right 999 times in 1,000. I'll take that.

If you want to predict NYCFC will set new standards for H/A records and make the playoffs because of what you've seen in our play, that's great and please explain why.
If you want to predict NYCFC will set new standards for H/A records and make the playoffs because you're an optimist, good for you.
If you simply want to assume current trends continue, that's dubious.

I'm still going to predict based on the odds, while hoping for the best.

I'd say home records probably have reflected increased, compared to opponent, comfort with a home pitch. We don;t have that, for some reason we look less comfortable on our home pitch than the opponent. we certainly don't take advantage of it.
Home record also likely reflects support. We have shitty support compared to other teams. SS was basically silent at the end of the Orlando game, at least on TV. And the frequent booing.
Home and away records can also be arbitrary divisions of a small sample size. Yes, most playoff teams have winning home records, because they are good and win games, home or away. I wouldn't expect our home record to improve since the strength of teams we are facing at home gets much higher. But, my optimism comes from the fact that we have outplayed opponents and lost points on a number of fluky late goals. As patrick has said, we have outplayed our opponents in most games.
No reason to think we can;t keep up our current ppg, and no reason to think that this year won;t have a lower playoff line with all the dropped points to the west

 

[mgarbowski]

What it comes down to is simple: either you think we will jump to getting 1.6 or more PPG at home in our last 9 home games after getting 1.0 PPG in our first 8, or you don't.

Alternatively, you think we will continue to have the best Away record in MLS ( or at least top few), or you don't.

Or some combo of the above Plus the East (excluding NYCFC) has lots and lots of ties and continues losing to the West.

None of those is crazy talk, but some require many parts to go right.

 

[SteveV]

I think some of you are way too pessimistic!

Yes, NYCFC has been worse at home than on the road. But what does this mean? What might happen?

• NYCFC could continue on their current trajectory (great on the road, not so great at home)
• NYCFC could behave more like the average team (assume that things are wacky so far, but that their performance will "regress to the mean")
• What seems unlikely, but what some folks seem to think, is that NYCFC will STOP being good on the road, but will CONTINUE sucking at home. So we're pessimistically choosing for them to regress to the mean on the road but not at home, just because we're true soccer fans and assume the worst for our club?

How about a little hope?

• By any results-driven measure, NYCFC is an above average Eastern Conference team.
• EDITED TO ADD THIS: This INCLUDES the extra time draws vs. Montreal and Orlando at home (which really hurts the home PPG average too). That pain and suffering in the final minute can't possibly continue, right? (PLEASE tell me that it won't continue.) They're two last second plays away from having 22 points and sole possession of 1st place in the east in both total points and PPG.
• They're in 4th in PPG in the East, which, the last time I checked, is good enough to make the playoffs.
• They've been much better on the road so far, and 11 of their 20 remaining games are on the road.
• Historically, 49 points is roughly what's needed to make the playoffs, but right now the Eastern Conference is behind that pace. Even if things in the East get back to "normal", it seems unlikely that MORE than 49 points will be needed.
• If the current Eastern Conference pace continues, only 42 points would be needed to make the playoffs. (The current Western Conference pace will require 52 points.)

Where are we headed?

• NYCFC currently on pace for 43 points in the regular season. Not good enough by historic standards, but not far off the pace. In fact, a win vs. RSL on Thursday puts them right back on (the historically usual) pace.
• If NYCFC continued to play with the same home/road splits, they'd finish with 45 points.
• If NYCFC started playing with average League-wide home/road splits, they'd finish with 44 points.
• If NYCFC started playing with average Eastern Conference home/road splits, they'd finish with 42 points.

At a minimum, we're still very much in the hunt. Let's get those 3 points vs. RSL!

Some charts below for your viewing pleasure.

 

[Goodfella]

there be some geeky number smashing nerds up in here and love every single one of ya's

 

[mgarbowski]

What seems unlikely, but what some folks seem to think, is that NYCFC will STOP being good on the road, but will CONTINUE sucking at home. So we're pessimistically choosing for them to regress to the mean on the road but not at home, just because we're true soccer fans and assume the worst for our club?

Well, yeah.
More seriously, I guess I think we've shown ourselves weak at home for a full season plus while our road success is 6 games. So that's why I fear that.
But let met get uncharacteristically positive.
Last year both our records were bad, and Home was better than Away, as is normal. But, relative to our league position our Away Record last year was better than Home. We finished 17th in the league overall, but we had the 19th best Home record, and were tied for 13th Best Away record. So I guess there's some basis for saying our Away record so far this year is not a fluke. I hope so.
PS: We actually had better Away records than the Galaxy, Dynamo, and RSL last year (plus some of the expected bottom-dwellers). We tied with DC and Toronto on Away points.

 

[SteveV]

We actually had better Away records than the Galaxy, Dynamo, and RSL last year

Interesting... look at my chart of home/road splits... I noticed the Western Conference has a much bigger split than the East... maybe it's always been so?

 

[Viewfrom226]

Well, yeah.
More seriously, I guess I think we've shown ourselves weak at home for a full season plus while our road success is 6 games. So that's why I fear that.
But let met get uncharacteristically positive.
Last year both our records were bad, and Home was better than Away, as is normal. But, relative to our league position our Away Record last year was better than Home. We finished 17th in the league overall, but we had the 19th best Home record, and were tied for 13th Best Away record. So I guess there's some basis for saying our Away record so far this year is not a fluke. I hope so.
PS: We actually had better Away records than the Galaxy, Dynamo, and RSL last year (plus some of the expected bottom-dwellers). We tied with DC and Toronto on Away points.

Plus, we continue to defy logic is the less frequently discussed "attendance to home points" ratio where we have to be leading the league in terms of the willingness of our fans to continue to turn out despite repeated first-hand disappointment.

 

[SteveV]

Interesting... look at my chart of home/road splits... I noticed the Western Conference has a much bigger split than the East... maybe it's always been so?

So maybe this gives us hope for Thursday? Sure we suck at 1.0 PPG at home, but Real Salt Lake has a worst-in-the-league home vs. road differential... they get 3.0 PPG at home but only 1.0 PPG on the road so far this season.

......Did I just jinx it? Shit, I probably just jinxed it.

 

[mgarbowski]

So maybe this gives us hope for Thursday? Sure we suck at 1.0 PPG at home, but Real Salt Lake has a worst-in-the-league home vs. road differential... they get 3.0 PPG at home but only 1.0 PPG on the road so far this season.

......Did I just jinx it? Shit, I probably just jinxed it.

Well that is how it's supposed to work... (the H/A stuff, not the jinxing).

 

[SteveV]

Well that is how it's supposed to work... (the H/A stuff, not the jinxing).

Dude, I'm just saying RSL is absolute worst for H/A so far... Average team has a difference of 1.1PPG. RSL difference is 2PPG. We're gonna dominate these chumps! Go team!

 

[Ulrich]

Dude, I'm just saying RSL is absolute worst for H/A so far... Average team has a difference of 1.1PPG. RSL difference is 2PPG. We're gonna dominate these chumps! Go team!

Not having Beckerman is a huge plus for us.

 

[adam]

I think some of you are way too pessimistic!

Yes, NYCFC has been worse at home than on the road. But what does this mean? What might happen?

• NYCFC could continue on their current trajectory (great on the road, not so great at home)
• NYCFC could behave more like the average team (assume that things are wacky so far, but that their performance will "regress to the mean")
• What seems unlikely, but what some folks seem to think, is that NYCFC will STOP being good on the road, but will CONTINUE sucking at home. So we're pessimistically choosing for them to regress to the mean on the road but not at home, just because we're true soccer fans and assume the worst for our club?

How about a little hope?

• By any results-driven measure, NYCFC is an above average Eastern Conference team.
• EDITED TO ADD THIS: This INCLUDES the extra time draws vs. Montreal and Orlando at home (which really hurts the home PPG average too). That pain and suffering in the final minute can't possibly continue, right? (PLEASE tell me that it won't continue.) They're two last second plays away from having 22 points and sole possession of 1st place in the east in both total points and PPG.
• They're in 4th in PPG in the East, which, the last time I checked, is good enough to make the playoffs.
• They've been much better on the road so far, and 11 of their 20 remaining games are on the road.
• Historically, 49 points is roughly what's needed to make the playoffs, but right now the Eastern Conference is behind that pace. Even if things in the East get back to "normal", it seems unlikely that MORE than 49 points will be needed.
• If the current Eastern Conference pace continues, only 42 points would be needed to make the playoffs. (The current Western Conference pace will require 52 points.)

Where are we headed?

• NYCFC currently on pace for 43 points in the regular season. Not good enough by historic standards, but not far off the pace. In fact, a win vs. RSL on Thursday puts them right back on (the historically usual) pace.
• If NYCFC continued to play with the same home/road splits, they'd finish with 45 points.
• If NYCFC started playing with average League-wide home/road splits, they'd finish with 44 points.
• If NYCFC started playing with average Eastern Conference home/road splits, they'd finish with 42 points.

At a minimum, we're still very much in the hunt. Let's get those 3 points vs. RSL!

Some charts below for your viewing pleasure.

View attachment 5013

View attachment 5012

That's some sexy spreadsheeting there. Careful son, you may be drawing some unwanted attention from this group with charts like those.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I think some of you are way too pessimistic!

Yes, NYCFC has been worse at home than on the road. But what does this mean? What might happen?

• NYCFC could continue on their current trajectory (great on the road, not so great at home)
• NYCFC could behave more like the average team (assume that things are wacky so far, but that their performance will "regress to the mean")
• What seems unlikely, but what some folks seem to think, is that NYCFC will STOP being good on the road, but will CONTINUE sucking at home. So we're pessimistically choosing for them to regress to the mean on the road but not at home, just because we're true soccer fans and assume the worst for our club?

How about a little hope?

• By any results-driven measure, NYCFC is an above average Eastern Conference team.
• EDITED TO ADD THIS: This INCLUDES the extra time draws vs. Montreal and Orlando at home (which really hurts the home PPG average too). That pain and suffering in the final minute can't possibly continue, right? (PLEASE tell me that it won't continue.) They're two last second plays away from having 22 points and sole possession of 1st place in the east in both total points and PPG.
• They're in 4th in PPG in the East, which, the last time I checked, is good enough to make the playoffs.
• They've been much better on the road so far, and 11 of their 20 remaining games are on the road.
• Historically, 49 points is roughly what's needed to make the playoffs, but right now the Eastern Conference is behind that pace. Even if things in the East get back to "normal", it seems unlikely that MORE than 49 points will be needed.
• If the current Eastern Conference pace continues, only 42 points would be needed to make the playoffs. (The current Western Conference pace will require 52 points.)

Where are we headed?

• NYCFC currently on pace for 43 points in the regular season. Not good enough by historic standards, but not far off the pace. In fact, a win vs. RSL on Thursday puts them right back on (the historically usual) pace.
• If NYCFC continued to play with the same home/road splits, they'd finish with 45 points.
• If NYCFC started playing with average League-wide home/road splits, they'd finish with 44 points.
• If NYCFC started playing with average Eastern Conference home/road splits, they'd finish with 42 points.

At a minimum, we're still very much in the hunt. Let's get those 3 points vs. RSL!

Some charts below for your viewing pleasure.

View attachment 5013

View attachment 5012

At the risk of making the chart unintelligibly crowded, I'd like to see a line that tracks the playoff cutoff line (i.e. the points of the 6th place team) and how that changes over the seasons.

 

[SteveV]

At the risk of making the chart unintelligibly crowded, I'd like to see a line that tracks the playoff cutoff line (i.e. the points of the 6th place team) and how that changes over the seasons.

That would be easy and quick enough to do, but it's a little complicated to track because it's tough to track points for each team after "x" matches (since, with the schedule, there are times when one team has played 2-3 more matches than another).

The closest I got for this season was to just look back at standings by calendar week (I called a "calendar week" Saturday-Friday and then you can really easily get standings by custom dates on whoscored.com), and get 6th highest PPG in the Eastern Conference, and then extrapolate out the number of games that matches NYCFC... if that makes sense. For example, right now the 6th highest PPG is 1.23, so if whatever that team is had played the same number of matches as NYCFC (14), 6th place is at 17 points.

Anyway, here ya go... and you're right, it does make the chart pretty crowded.

 

[Gotham Gator]

That would be easy and quick enough to do, but it's a little complicated to track because it's tough to track points for each team after "x" matches (since, with the schedule, there are times when one team has played 2-3 more matches than another).

The closest I got for this season was to just look back at standings by calendar week (I called a "calendar week" Saturday-Friday and then you can really easily get standings by custom dates on whoscored.com), and get 6th highest PPG in the Eastern Conference, and then extrapolate out the number of games that matches NYCFC... if that makes sense. For example, right now the 6th highest PPG is 1.23, so if whatever that team is had played the same number of matches as NYCFC (14), 6th place is at 17 points.

Anyway, here ya go... and you're right, it does make the chart pretty crowded.

View attachment 5016

Awesome, thanks. I think it is good to have since it shows that the "cut line" is currently trending south of the expected pace. I wonder what it would have looked like last season.

 

[mgarbowski]

Awesome, thanks. I think it is good to have since it shows that the "cut line" is currently trending south of the expected pace. I wonder what it would have looked like last season.

I'm not going to have time to do any detailed posts for a week, but my memory is the projected cut line went from about 42 mid season to about 45-46 with about 6 weeks to go. Big move at the end. One reason is that MLS had historically low draws in the last quarter of 2015.

 

[danger]

SS was basically silent at the end of the Orlando game, at least on TV.

I think on TV is the operative phrase. For comparison, if you have MLS live, listen to the Portland supporters section in the May 15 game against NYCFC. Particularly the drums. Now listen to the same Portland supporters section a week later on May 22 against Vancouver. Same Portland supporters. Presumably same drums. But you can barely hear them. The difference is that the NYCFC game was broadcast by FS1 and the Vancouver game was broadcast by ESPN. Sure, maybe the fans are quieter, but at the very least, the mic'd the drums differently

 

[SteveV]

Awesome, thanks. I think it is good to have since it shows that the "cut line" is currently trending south of the expected pace. I wonder what it would have looked like last season.

OK, so I looked at this and it was actually interesting - thanks for suggesting it. As mgarbowski remembered, the playoff pace really ticked up at the end of the season. I had looked at 3-4 years of standings to come up with 49 as my "target" for making the playoffs, but was hoping this year would be lower based on results so far...."trending south of the expected pace"... now I wouldn't count on it.

The chart is really really busy to look at now.... but it shows that the 6th place pace (last playoff team) is almost EXACTLY where we were last year at this time (below expected pace). Last year after 14 games we would've said the playoff pace was 41.1 points. This year, right now, the playoff pace is 41.8 points. Last year ended up not at 41, but at the "usual" 49. So I'm sticking with my target of 49 points for the playoffs; better safe than sorry.

Need that win vs RSL tomorrow to get back on track for the playoffs.

 

[SteveV]

OK, so I looked at this and it was actually interesting - thanks for suggesting it. As mgarbowski remembered, the playoff pace really ticked up at the end of the season. I had looked at 3-4 years of standings to come up with 49 as my "target" for making the playoffs, but was hoping this year would be lower based on results so far...."trending south of the expected pace"... now I wouldn't count on it.

The chart is really really busy to look at now.... but it shows that the 6th place pace (last playoff team) is almost EXACTLY where we were last year at this time (below expected pace). Last year after 14 games we would've said the playoff pace was 41.1 points. This year, right now, the playoff pace is 41.8 points. Last year ended up not at 41, but at the "usual" 49. So I'm sticking with my target of 49 points for the playoffs; better safe than sorry.

Need that win vs RSL tomorrow to get back on track for the playoffs.

View attachment 5029

Here's the same chart with some noise removed. The playoff pace from this year is right where last year was after 14 games... don't count on the playoff point target staying low (42-43). Sure, it might (43 points did make the cut in 2012), or it might tick up to 49 where it's been the last 3 years (49 points made the playoffs in 2013-2015).

 

[SteveV]

We're officially the 6th place team now. On the playoff bubble when the line for the playoffs is still way below where it usually ends up.

Trying not to overreact to the recent stretch, because:

• Besides one 15 minute stretch last night, they looked good even with an out-of-form Villa
• The recent 4 game stretch has been bad, but we've been through this before (including earlier this season). Things will turn around and we'll have another good run of games (it might not start in Yankee Stadium vs. Philadelphia... but who knows, sometimes these things happen when you least expect them).
• Still (barely) a playoff team.
• Last year they looked bad and lost. This year, at least there are moments when the soccer looks really good. We will at least see year-to-year progress.