2017 Season Points Predictions

[dannd23]

I did this thread last year. I think most of us were correct in the 50-54 range.

It's a little early. I am operating under the (maybe false) assumption we sign Ofori and then Khediera in the summer.

I am going with 54. I think we have about the same record as last year but a much better GD.

Votes CAN be changed

 

[sbrylski]

This is pretty early. Can we change our vote once we vote?

 

[dannd23]

This is pretty early. Can we change our vote once we vote?

Yes. I made it so that we can change votes

 

[adam]

I'm going 60 plus. Screw it, it's the pre-season. Let's dream big and let the team kills those dreams later.

 

[dannd23]

Edited original post to state you CAN change your vote. I might have jumped the gun on this thread a little but man I am pumped. I will be closing this thread the day before OCSC

 

[mgarbowski]

Last preseason I went through the schedule and predicted a result for every game. I spent less than 2 minutes on it. My predictions came to 51 points and the team ended up with 54. But I also gave so little weight to it at the time that in this thread last year I think I voted even lower at 45-49.
I did the same exercise this year and it came to 60 points. What the hell. That's my official thread prediction for 2017 and I'm voting accordingly.

In truth I am probably less confident than that and would predict low to mid-50s, but this year I'm going to try to push my optimism factor. We'll see how long that lasts.

PS: While my total last year was not far off from reality I only correctly predicted 10 of 34 games. The others mostly offset each other by being wrong in different directions.

 

[LionNYC]

If our percentage improvement from 2015 to 2016 is constant to 2017, that means we'll have ~79 points, which would be 26 wins and 1 draw...

 

[mgarbowski]

If our percentage improvement from 2015 to 2016 is constant to 2017, that means we'll have ~79 points, which would be 26 wins and 1 draw...

Wow. Imagine how many points we'll have in 2018 if trends continue just one more year!

 

[LionNYC]

Wow. Imagine how many points we'll have in 2018 if trends continue just one more year!

More than the possible in MLS (and even more possible than in a 38 game league like the EPL). We're too good for this league...

 

[SpicyRoll]

I'm keeping my fingers crossed we'll be in the 50-54 range. I love our team and the new players we added, but the rest of the league has gotten stronger as well. Although the league hasn't gotten the injections of star power many we're anticipating (although I believe some are coming) the league has gotten much stronger this offseason with the addition of many young and exciting prospects as well as international DP players in their prime.

I'm a big fan of NYC, but I'm also a huge fan of MLS as well. I think if we find ourselves in the top half of the eastern conference near the end of the season and going on a good run heading into the playoffs, we should consider it a successful season.

 

[Ulrich]

59 pts
17 wins 8 ties 9 losses

 

[sbrylski]

I don't currently see us improving on last year relative to the rest of the league. Chicago is loads better, New England improved their backline, Atlanta has the potential to grow into a very good team by the end of the year, and Montreal and Toronto are both still better than us. Probably the Red Bulls too.

I'll update my predictions before the start of the season, but I'll project something like this as of today:

58 Toronto
56 Montreal
54 Red Bulls
53 New York City
49 Chicago
48 Atlanta
44 DC United
41 Philadelphia
40 New England
38 Columbus
36 Orlando

I think we are a #3-#6 team. We definitely haven't fixed the issues that caused us to fall to Toronto.

 

[Fantazma]

I think we are a #3-#6 team. We definitely haven't fixed the issues that caused us to fall to Toronto.

no one has an answer to giovinco

 

[Gotham Gator]

Good stuff, but not sure why you think Montreal is better than us. We got 4 points off them in our two games (4-2 on aggregate) and finished 9 points and 3 places ahead on the table.

 

[Ulrich]

no one has an answer to giovinco

Father Time..... every year he will slow a little bit more and every year the physical abuse he suffers will add up. That hypothetical kick to the calf that was shrugged off last year develops scar tissue and the same kick this year adds more scar tissue and longer to go away. He'll still be a handful, but teams are learning to bully him and even a young, super athletic body wears down.

A more proactive approach (aside from kicking him) is to maintain possession and don't give him the opportunity to plant the dagger.

 

[Viewfrom226]

Father Time..... every year he will slow a little bit more and every year the physical abuse he suffers will add up. That hypothetical kick to the calf that was shrugged off last year develops scar tissue and the same kick this year adds more scar tissue and longer to go away. He'll still be a handful, but teams are learning to bully him and even a young, super athletic body wears down.

A more proactive approach (aside from kicking him) is to maintain possession and don't give him the opportunity to plant the dagger.

True. Unfortunately possibly even more true for us. Villa was insane last year. Playing nearly 3000 minutes as a striker at his age and maintaining production throughout the season is amazing. Obviously he is a special player and the normal aging curve doesn't apply to him, but at some point he will get old. I could see him playing more like 2000 minutes this year and scoring 10-12 goals. I'm not saying that will happen or is likely, but I also don't think it is the very tail end of the curve of potential outcomes. Maybe Okoli is an adequate deputy or one of the other wingers can slot in up top. Its a scary possibility though and, for me, the one single factor that could make this team pretty mediocre this season.

 

[LionNYC]

True. Unfortunately possibly even more true for us. Villa was insane last year. Playing nearly 3000 minutes as a striker at his age and maintaining production throughout the season is amazing. Obviously he is a special player and the normal aging curve doesn't apply to him, but at some point he will get old. I could see him playing more like 2000 minutes this year and scoring 10-12 goals. I'm not saying that will happen or is likely, but I also don't think it is the very tail end of the curve of potential outcomes. Maybe Okoli is an adequate deputy or one of the other wingers can slot in up top. Its a scary possibility though and, for me, the one single factor that could make this team pretty mediocre this season.

Tom Brady's 39 and on the verge of winning the Super Bowl.

Villa gets 30 goals this season...

 

[LionNYC]

I don't currently see us improving on last year relative to the rest of the league. Chicago is loads better, New England improved their backline, Atlanta has the potential to grow into a very good team by the end of the year, and Montreal and Toronto are both still better than us. Probably the Red Bulls too.

I'll update my predictions before the start of the season, but I'll project something like this as of today:

58 Toronto
56 Montreal
54 Red Bulls
53 New York City
49 Chicago
48 Atlanta
44 DC United
41 Philadelphia
40 New England
38 Columbus
36 Orlando

I think we are a #3-#6 team. We definitely haven't fixed the issues that caused us to fall to Toronto.

Toronto - Fair
Montreal - Overrated
Red Bulls - Fair
NYCFC - Fair
Chicago - Overated
Atlanta - Fair
DC - Underrated
Philadelphia - Underrated
New England - Fair
Columbus - Fair
Orlando - Fair

 

[Viewfrom226]

I'm probably in the 52 or so range. As it stands today, I'd say the East looks deeper than it did last year in that the only team that feels like it is going backwards is Orlando, while Atlanta is a wildcard and I'm assuming the NE's CB signing are actually decent. Feels like it could be a season where there is a huge amount of parity (even more than normal), though its always hard to project.

More than our points total improving, my goal for this year would be to avoid being the sort of team that can get absolutely played off the pitch with some frequency and was never well placedto make a deep playoff run as a result. Towards that end, I feel like we are better positioned this year than last, even if the regular season point total ends up a bit lower.

 

[Ulrich]

True. Unfortunately possibly even more true for us. Villa was insane last year. Playing nearly 3000 minutes as a striker at his age and maintaining production throughout the season is amazing. Obviously he is a special player and the normal aging curve doesn't apply to him, but at some point he will get old. I could see him playing more like 2000 minutes this year and scoring 10-12 goals. I'm not saying that will happen or is likely, but I also don't think it is the very tail end of the curve of potential outcomes. Maybe Okoli is an adequate deputy or one of the other wingers can slot in up top. Its a scary possibility though and, for me, the one single factor that could make this team pretty mediocre this season.

Well, all good points except that:
1. Villa does not seem to get the same level of abuse as Giovinco, so hopefully he isn't a walking wounded.
2. Villa has been pacing himself since year one by walking a lot during games while being frustrated with his service. now if he starts getting amazing service and can never take a walking break, that's when I'll start to worry.
3. Add a half dozen goals to the goal via PK.