2017 Stats Thread

[SoupInNYC]

Different xG models may produce slightly different results, but my tally is that we would be 12-3 based on xG. That would be tied for the best in the league with SKC. East as a whole would stack up like this:

NYCFC - 12-3
Orlando - 10-5
Chicago - 9-5
Toronto - 9-6
New England - 9-6
NYRB - 7-8
Atlanta - 6-7
Columbus - 7-9
Philadelphia - 6-8
Montreal - 5-7
DC United - 3-11


The other thing I had done is try normalize for home/away imbalance by projecting points for every team based on remaining home and away matches and using their home and away PPG to date. It fails to account for strength of schedule and some other relevant data, but it eliminates the home/away imbalance which is so relevant in MLS given the extreme skews. That produces the following projected point totals:

Toronto - 66.8
Chicago - 60.7
NYCFC - 55.3
Atlanta - 49.7
Orlando - 49.1
New England - 47.7
Montreal - 45.3
NYRB - 43.4
Columbus - 40.4
Philadelphia - 38.9
DC United - 36.8

Fancy seeing you back on here

ETA: I had an awesome gif lined up that just didn't seem to be working...

 

[Viewfrom226]

I don't suppose you projected future point totals based on xG, with or without a H/A correction?

Here are projected PPG based on xG record to date, ignoring H/A. xG record produces more average PPG since there are basically no ties. Specifically, East teams' actual points are about 90% of their xG record points. So, I took the xG record points over 34 games and haircut it to 90%. Still produces atypically high point totals.

NYCFC - 74.5
Orlando - 62.1
Chicago - 59.9
Toronto - 55.9
New England - 55.9
NYRB - 43.5
Atlanta - 43.0
Columbus -40.7
Philadelphia - 39.9
Montreal - 38.8
DC United - 20.0

My overall take on the East at this point is as follows. Obviously injuries, July transfers, etc. could change a lot, but here's how I see it.

• Toronto, NYCFC and Chicago are, at least to date, a cut above.
• Orlando has constantly had the benefit of a heavily home schedule. They are +3 home. They do, however, have a very strong xG record, so it is not a total mirage. But, I think they'll continue to fall back a bit.
• New England is better than their record. I would not be surprised if they finish fourth.
• Atlanta has had a tough road heavy schedule and sometimes looks amazing, but its not immediately clear to me that they will actually improve record-wise. I would still probably pick them for the sixth playoff spot.
• NYRB, Columbus and Montreal are on the fringe.
• Philadelphia is a step below.
• DC United is atrocious. Their awful record is actually better than their xG record by a lot and they are +2 home.

 

[Viewfrom226]

Fancy seeing you back on here

ETA: I had an awesome gif lined up that just didn't seem to be working...

Thanks! Super-busy Spring so while I've continue to spend way too much time watching this team, I fell out of the loop on the forums. Looking forward to getting back in the flow and, of course, to the forums outing to the derby on 6/24. Our group is 19 people strong!

 

[Christopher Jee]

Thanks! Super-busy Spring so while I've continue to spend way too much time watching this team, I fell out of the loop on the forums. Looking forward to getting back in the flow and, of course, to the forums outing to the derby on 6/24. Our group is 19 people strong!

I have tickets for 6/24. And I appear to be on the forums. What am I missing out on?

 

[Viewfrom226]

I have tickets for 6/24. And I appear to be on the forums. What am I missing out on?

We had solicited interest on here a few months back and bought a block of tickets. We are up in Section 222 rows 18 and 19 if you(or anyone else) are nearby and want to come by and say hello.

 

[SoupInNYC]

We had solicited interest on here a few months back and bought a block of tickets. We are up in Section 222 rows 18 and 19 if you(or anyone else) are nearby and want to come by and say hello.

On that note, something came up for me that weekend and I am no longer able to attend . If someone else from the forums is interested, feel free to let me know (I'll post this in a more appropriate thread later).

 

[Christopher Jee]

We had solicited interest on here a few months back and bought a block of tickets. We are up in Section 222 rows 18 and 19 if you(or anyone else) are nearby and want to come by and say hello.

Ah, cheers. I'll be with the TR block, but will come say hi

 

[The Toe]

Not a whole lot to see here, but I think a lot of the stat/graph nuts will love it:

http://www.americansocceranalysis.c...l-analysis-of-where-teams-focus-their-efforts

 

[Gotham Gator]

NYCFC Should Press Seattle to Death

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017...ressing-them-death-analysts-den?autoplay=true

 

[LionNYC]

Here's a stat question for 2017...

Did we score any goals from free kicks?

 

[Midas Mulligan]

Here's a stat question for 2017...

Did we score any goals from free kicks?

Directly? I don’t think.

But who cares about stats. Taurus says they don’t matter.

 

[mgarbowski]

Here's a stat question for 2017...

Did we score any goals from free kicks?

Directly, no. Like Midas Mulligan said. Off service, Sweat’s header against the Red Bulls and Chanot against Chicago.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Directly, no. Like Midas Mulligan said. Off service, Sweat’s header against the Red Bulls and Chanot against Chicago.

I think it was Brillant against Chicago. But Chanot and Callens both had goals coming off corners against Philly. There was the TMac goal at Dallas. Villa from Maxi at home against Orlando. Any others?

 

[mgarbowski]

I think it was Brillant against Chicago.

Yes. I knew it was Brillant, too. No idea why I wrote Chanot.

But Chanot and Callens both had goals coming off corners against Philly. There was the TMac goal at Dallas. Villa from Maxi at home against Orlando. Any others?

This is why I shouldn't check my records on a phone. Too easy to miss things. You are correct about TMac at Dallas and Villa against Orlando.
For corners, besides the Chanot and Callens goals you listed, I have Chanot again against Vancouver and Villa against Columbus at Citi Field.

 

[adam]

It’s just such a relief we don’t have to worry about Pirlo attempting FKs anymore. That alone should add like 3-5 goals over the course of the season.

 

[Seth]

Yes. I knew it was Brillant, too. No idea why I wrote Chanot.


This is why I shouldn't check my records on a phone. Too easy to miss things. You are correct about TMac at Dallas and Villa against Orlando.
For corners, besides the Chanot and Callens goals you listed, I have Chanot again against Vancouver and Villa against Columbus at Citi Field.

Irregardless of a few forgotten instances, the correct answer to the question is, "not @#$% enough of 'em."

 

[Midas Mulligan]

Irregardless

Troll

 

[Taurus]

Directly? I don’t think.

But who cares about stats. Taurus says they don’t matter.

Ha, why did you tag me here. I hardly come into this thread......

Anyway, in all seriousness, stats do matter and are important. I personally, just don't have an "interest" in reviewing, and analyzing, researching in depth soccer stats all that much. Not my thing. When I need to look something up, I'll just goat you and leverage your self described character flaw