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2018 - Running With the Numbers and the Quest for Everything

Discussion in 'NYCFC Supporters Discussion' started by mgarbowski, Apr 30, 2018.

  1. canchon

    canchon Active Member Seasoned Supporter

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    Everybody go follow the Toto Africa bot on Twitter. Bless the rains
     
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  2. canchon

    canchon Active Member Seasoned Supporter

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    If NYCFC doesn’t beat Chicago then I think you are looking at a 4 or potential 5 spot, maybe playing for it vs Philadelphia.

    Team backed into the 2 spot last year, remember couldn’t beat CLB at home and needed a last minute goal from Toronto (who had already won the Shield) against Atlanta to give NYCFC the 2 spot.
     
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  3. canchon

    canchon Active Member Seasoned Supporter

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    The Minnesota away game totally smells like “Darwin Quintero goes nuts” to blow that one.
     
  4. LionNYC

    LionNYC Senior Member Staff Member Elite Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Dome is Hamlet. Vieira is Polonius. And the fans are Ophelia.

    Hamlet killed Polonius' tactics and style of play, driving Ophelia to madness and ending her own life.

    Elsinore City FC!
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2018
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  5. mgarbowski

    mgarbowski Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    After starting the season 5-0-2, 17 points in 7 games, NYCFC needed to get just 43 points in 27 games, or 1.5926 PPG, to reach the 60 point mark. That is now impossible.
     
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  6. mgarbowski

    mgarbowski Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    As late as Game 21, NYC was at 2.048 PPG with a 13-4-4 record and 43 points. They needed just 17 points in 13 games or 1.3077 PPG to get 60 points. After getting only 10 points in 11 games, that is now impossible.

    Edited and fixed.
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2018
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  7. 413Blue

    413Blue Active Member Seasoned Supporter

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    Consumer and business sentiment is reading very high right now. I wish the economists out there could do a similar analysis to see how much supporter sentiment for this team has plummeted as the season has progressed.
    I literally forgot about last night's game an even though I remembered later last night, I didn't bother to check the score until this morning. Between the terrible performance's and the offseasons we have in the middle of our season, it is hard to care.
     
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  8. adam

    adam Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Idk about that. This FO's administration has accomplished more than almost any other in NYCFC history!
     
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  9. Ulrich

    Ulrich Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    It’s actually 10pts in the last 11 matches (yes, the club app is overly confusing), but still, 0.909 pts/match is bottom tier competency in MLS - it’s currently equivalent to Orlando’s output for the year and they are universally considered a dumpster fire that is continually doused with kerosene and old newspapers.
     
  10. mgarbowski

    mgarbowski Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    I can't even blame the app; I just made a basic math error.
     
  11. Ulrich

    Ulrich Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    When one is dealing with numbers that low on a pts/game basis, the sinking depression of how futile and pathetic it is to be that bad muddies the cognitive ability to focus.

    Whereas DC may be the hottest team since the summer with their signing of Rooney, we may be on the worst 11match run of any team not named San Jose. And we very likely will be playing DC in the knockout round.....
     
  12. LionNYC

    LionNYC Senior Member Staff Member Elite Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    This season is more depressing than 2015.
     
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  13. canchon

    canchon Active Member Seasoned Supporter

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    Fishkin tracks points in the league since 8/1. NYCFC has the lowest amount of points since 8/1 of any playoff team - actually they are more in line with all the non-playoff teams.

    They will lose at DCU and then beat Philly to get that 3 seed, followed by a waxing by DCU in the knockout game - which would be 3 points in their next 3 games, right in line with their current performance.
     
  14. Christopher Jee

    Christopher Jee Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    My only solace is being one of few, along with KjbertKjbert , who thought that Rooney would be good for MLS :/
     
  15. mgarbowski

    mgarbowski Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    In 2016, NYCFC looked like a team that overcame a slow start to build a record just short of excellent.
    In 2017, NYCFC looked like a team that suffered a late season slump caused by an injury to their only reliable scorer and fell just short of excellent.
    In 2018, NYCFC looks like a team that has been treading water for 3 years.

    Screen Shot 2018-10-01 at 7.56.30 AM.png

    Screen Shot 2018-10-01 at 7.56.14 AM.png
    Every remaining possibility:
    Screen Shot 2018-10-01 at 7.56.43 AM.png

    2018-10-01-EAST-LINE.png
     
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  16. Kjbert

    Kjbert Senior Member Seasoned Supporter

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    I'm going on 4 years of not being wrong on these Forums.
     
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  17. SoupInNYC

    SoupInNYC Senior Member Elite Donor

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    Please don't look at my posting history in regards to how I thought Rooney would be in MLS

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Ulrich

    Ulrich Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    That’s only because 98% of the time, you don’t tag the post you’re responding to and you’re waxing poetic in a vacuum.
     
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  19. mgarbowski

    mgarbowski Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    NYCFC Playoff Seeding Status Summary

    Current Position Third 53 Points
    Unable to Climb Higher
    Remaining Games at DC United, Home Philadelphia Union. H/A adjusted Opponents' PPG 1.80 (second hardest)

    Teams Who Can Catch NYCFC
    1. DC United
    12 points back, 4 games to play.
    Home Dallas, Home TFC, Home NYCFC Away Chicago. H/A adjusted Opponents' PPG 1.11 (7th easiest-tie)
    DCU has to win out, and NYCFC lose out. That will put them tied on Points and Wins. GD status currently NYC +14, DCU +6. But if NYC loses out and DC wins out, NYC will be at most +12, and DCU at least +10. So DC would have to pick up an additional 3 GD, either by winning by >1 or NYC losing by >1, and then DC leads here. Next tiebreaker is Goals For. Teams are current tied, so if DC makes up the points deficit they would win this tiebreaker, meaning they only need to pick up an additional 2 GD to win.
    Bottom line: any result for NYC or dropped points for DC and NYC stays ahead. Barring that, however, tiebreakers favor DC.

    2. Columbus
    5 points back, 2 to play.
    Away Orlando, Home Minnesota. The easiest remaining schedule in the league. H/A adjusted PPG 0.79.
    The Crew have to win both to have a chance, but the schedule is ridiculously easy. If they win out and NYC gets 1 point it is a tie. Any NYC win clinches. If they draw on points they will be tied on wins. Crew GD is -2, which is 16 behind NYC, so they have to win each game by 7-9 goals to overtake NYC.
    Bottom line: any result for NYC or dropped points for Columbus and NYC stays ahead, given the tiebreakers, with a minuscule chance of Columbus winning a GD tiebreaker.

    3. Philadelphia
    3 points back, 2 to play.
    Home Red Bulls, Away NYCFC. Adjusted H/A Opponents' PPG 1.94.
    The Union need at least to match NYCFC in Week 33 and then control their destiny on Decision Day. If they fall behind by one more point it is over. If the teams finish tied on points, Philadelphia will have more wins.
    Bottom line: getting more points than the Union in Week 33 is key.

    Summary:
    I'm just assuming Columbus beats Orlando and Minnesota. OTOH, if DC drops points in the next 2 games against Dallas and Toronto, that solves DC. But even assuming DC wins the next 2:

    A win in DC guarantees that NYC finishes ahead of DC and Columbus, and no lower than 4th.
    A draw in DC guarantees NYC finishes ahead of DC and no lower than 5th. If Red Bulls also beat the Union, then NYC finishes no lower than Fourth. If Orlando beats or even draws Columbus the world ends, but NYC finishes ahead of the Crew as well. Also NYC finishes ahead of CLB in GD tiebreaker barring oodles of goals by Columbus.
    A Loss in DC means Decision Day is really scary, unless (1) DC first drops points to either Dallas or Toronto, and (2) Columbus drops points to Orlando.
     
  20. LionNYC

    LionNYC Senior Member Staff Member Elite Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    I will not travel for a road knockout round game. Just save my money for hopefully less disappointment next season.
     
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