2018 - Running With the Numbers and the Quest for Everything

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adam

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NYCFC Playoff Seeding Status Summary

Current Position Third 53 Points
Unable to Climb Higher
Remaining Games at DC United, Home Philadelphia Union. H/A adjusted Opponents' PPG 1.80 (second hardest)

Teams Who Can Catch NYCFC
1. DC United
12 points back, 4 games to play.
Home Dallas, Home TFC, Home NYCFC Away Chicago. H/A adjusted Opponents' PPG 1.11 (7th easiest-tie)
DCU has to win out, and NYCFC lose out. That will put them tied on Points and Wins. GD status currently NYC +14, DCU +6. But if NYC loses out and DC wins out, NYC will be at most +12, and DCU at least +10. So DC would have to pick up an additional 3 GD, either by winning by >1 or NYC losing by >1, and then DC leads here. Next tiebreaker is Goals For. Teams are current tied, so if DC makes up the points deficit they would win this tiebreaker, meaning they only need to pick up an additional 2 GD to win.
Bottom line: any result for NYC or dropped points for DC and NYC stays ahead. Barring that, however, tiebreakers favor DC.

2. Columbus
5 points back, 2 to play.
Away Orlando, Home Minnesota. The easiest remaining schedule in the league. H/A adjusted PPG 0.79.
The Crew have to win both to have a chance, but the schedule is ridiculously easy. If they win out and NYC gets 1 point it is a tie. Any NYC win clinches. If they draw on points they will be tied on wins. Crew GD is -2, which is 16 behind NYC, so they have to win each game by 7-9 goals to overtake NYC.
Bottom line: any result for NYC or dropped points for Columbus and NYC stays ahead, given the tiebreakers, with a minuscule chance of Columbus winning a GD tiebreaker.

3. Philadelphia
3 points back, 2 to play.
Home Red Bulls, Away NYCFC. Adjusted H/A Opponents' PPG 1.94.
The Union need at least to match NYCFC in Week 33 and then control their destiny on Decision Day. If they fall behind by one more point it is over. If the teams finish tied on points, Philadelphia will have more wins.
Bottom line: getting more points than the Union in Week 33 is key.

Summary:
I'm just assuming Columbus beats Orlando and Minnesota. OTOH, if DC drops points in the next 2 games against Dallas and Toronto, that solves DC. But even assuming DC wins the next 2:

A win in DC guarantees that NYC finishes ahead of DC and Columbus, and no lower than 4th.
A draw in DC guarantees NYC finishes ahead of DC and no lower than 5th. If Red Bulls also beat the Union, then NYC finishes no lower than Fourth. If Orlando beats or even draws Columbus the world ends, but NYC finishes ahead of the Crew as well. Also NYC finishes ahead of CLB in GD tiebreaker barring oodles of goals by Columbus.
A Loss in DC means Decision Day is really scary, unless (1) DC first drops points to either Dallas or Toronto, and (2) Columbus drops points to Orlando.
On the bright side. We win in DC and decision day could be meaningless for us and we can rest players/try different tactics. Dome don’t fail us now!
 

LionNYC

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If we even want to think this far ahead, due to the lack of form recently, we may be playing MLS Cup on the road.

NYCFC currently has 53 points through 32 games played.

Dallas has 57 points through 31 games played.
Kansas City has 53 points through 31 games played.
LAFC has 51 points through 31 games played.
Portland has 51 points through 32 games played.
Seattle has 50 points through 31 games played.

We need to win out and need some of those teams to falter to have a greater probability of screwing over the league office, making Don Garber cry and try to change the rules, and hold MLS Cup at Yankee Stadium.
 

SoupInNYC

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If we even want to think this far ahead, due to the lack of form recently, we may be playing MLS Cup on the road.

NYCFC currently has 53 points through 32 games played.

Dallas has 57 points through 31 games played.
Kansas City has 53 points through 31 games played.
LAFC has 51 points through 31 games played.
Portland has 51 points through 32 games played.
Seattle has 50 points through 31 games played.

We need to win out and need some of those teams to falter to have a greater probability of screwing over the league office, making Don Garber cry and try to change the rules, and hold MLS Cup at Yankee Stadium.
I think it's pretty clear that Dallas will finish ahead of us.

SKC has 3 games remaining, at Vancouver which isn't easy (not necessarily tough either), at Dallas, home to LAFC.
Portland is home to RSL and at Vancouver.
LAFC is home to Houston and Vancouver, then at SKC.
Seattle is at Orlando, at Houston, and home to San Jose and currently holds 15 wins.

Out of the above, even though SKC is on 53 through 31, I'd have to think Seattle is most likely of the group to finish ahead of us.
 

mgarbowski

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I think it's pretty clear that Dallas will finish ahead of us.

SKC has 3 games remaining, at Vancouver which isn't easy (not necessarily tough either), at Dallas, home to LAFC.
Portland is home to RSL and at Vancouver.
LAFC is home to Houston and Vancouver, then at SKC.
Seattle is at Orlando, at Houston, and home to San Jose and currently holds 15 wins.

Out of the above, even though SKC is on 53 through 31, I'd have to think Seattle is most likely of the group to finish ahead of us.
I used up all my attention to detail on yesterday's post abut NYCFC playoff seeding, but my general takeaway from this is I'm pleased that there is a decent amount of games where they play each other. I had figured we probably finish behind 3-5 of the West teams (depending a lot on how we finish as well) but it could be more like 2-3, especially if we actually get some damn points.
 
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LionNYC

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I think it's pretty clear that Dallas will finish ahead of us.

SKC has 3 games remaining, at Vancouver which isn't easy (not necessarily tough either), at Dallas, home to LAFC.
Portland is home to RSL and at Vancouver.
LAFC is home to Houston and Vancouver, then at SKC.
Seattle is at Orlando, at Houston, and home to San Jose and currently holds 15 wins.

Out of the above, even though SKC is on 53 through 31, I'd have to think Seattle is most likely of the group to finish ahead of us.
I used up all my attention to detail on yesterday's post abut NYCFC playoff seeding, but my general takeaway from this is I'm pleased that there is a decent amount of games where they play each other. I had figured we probablky finish behind 3-5 of the West teams (depending a lot on how we finish as well) but it could be more like 2-3, especially if we actually get some damn points.
It would ironic (right term?) if we started and ended the year at SKC.

But if we had to travel, LA in December sounds like the best trip (although clearly the most expensive).
 
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Kenny

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In 2018, NYCFC looks like a team that has been treading water for 3 years.
I see it differently. In 2018 NYCFC looks like a team that started where they left off, strong, improving, fighting for the SS into midseason.... and then fell off a cliff, roughly coinciding with the departure of the manager and most of his staff, and arrival of replacement staff.

(Not to take anything away from your overall post, which is awesome and much appreciated)
 

adam

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LionNYC

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Poor guy. But it will still be very hard for them to fall to 6. I can see them swapping with CLB and DCU 6. My prediction for playoff seeding:

1. ATL
2. NJ
3. NYC
4. CLB
5. PHI
6.DCU

I really don’t like the idea of hosting DCU for our wildcard match.
DC is playing a crap ton of games, more than any other team moving into a new stadium in the history of MLS. They have been and will be playing 3 games every 7/8 days. At some point, Rooney hits a wall.
 

Ulrich

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DC is playing a crap ton of games, more than any other team moving into a new stadium in the history of MLS. They have been and will be playing 3 games every 7/8 days. At some point, Rooney hits a wall.
Rooney is the one guy I wouldn’t bet against. He’s rejuvenated and playing inspired football right now and considering where he came from regarding crappy form at ManU and Everton, this season at DC is a fountain of youth of sorts. I think he’s so strong willed that his psyche alone is gonna keep his form tip-top until they get knocked out, and that won’t be because he’s gassed. He may never again hit this form and he’s not gonna let go of it.

Edit: the rest of DC..... they’re riding his wave.
 

Schwallacus

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Rooney is the one guy I wouldn’t bet against. He’s rejuvenated and playing inspired football right now and considering where he came from regarding crappy form at ManU and Everton, this season at DC is a fountain of youth of sorts. I think he’s so strong willed that his psyche alone is gonna keep his form tip-top until they get knocked out, and that won’t be because he’s gassed. He may never again hit this form and he’s not gonna let go of it.

Edit: the rest of DC..... they’re riding his wave.
He's also used to playing 3 game weeks for most of his career with United, and with the lack of a mid-season break in England, he's used to the constant sludge of games for months straight.

Edit: If there's a stretch of the season Shrek was built for, it's this part right now. He doesn't need days off, those just slow him down. Give him games and give him a swamp, just look at him go!
 
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SoupInNYC

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He's also used to playing 3 game weeks for most of his career with United, and with the lack of a mid-season break in England, he's used to the constant sludge of games for months straight.

Edit: If there's a stretch of the season Shrek was built for, it's this part right now. He doesn't need days off, those just slow him down. Give him games and give him a swamp, just look at him go!
And tomorrow, Lucho's making waffles!
 

Ulrich

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We can all see the slow, plodding pace of NYCFC’s offense where NYCFC controls the ball 65% of the time, outshoots DCU 23-3 and loses on a Rooney/Acosta counter where the back line makes some stupid error.
You forgot that those 23 shots will not be on goal.
 

The Toe

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I like our chances with Herrera if Dome can get out of his own way and let the team play to its strengths. I would kill to play ATL in the next round.
 

adam

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I like our chances with Herrera if Dome can get out of his own way and let the team play to its strengths. I would kill to play ATL in the next round.
Hmm. NJ is the hotter team right now. And we might match up a little better vs ATL. But I think I'd still rather face NJ in the next round and have the team not board a plane for 2 months. Also, not play on turf and in front of ATL's crowd. I think we can fill up half of RB Arena in Blue for a 2nd leg playoff match, especially if we're leading. Also, we still have not lost to NJ under Dome, even drawing with 9 men (a match we should have won with 9 men!). Take out the USOC matches and we're 4-2-2 vs them since the RBW. Then again, does it really matter? I'm more worried about this team getting it's mojo back more than who we play. If we can somehow do that though, then I want NJ.
 
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