2020 Schedule Thread

ZYanksRule

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I'm guessing that our Round One match (Eastern Conference quarterfinals) will be on either Saturday, November 21 or Sunday, November 22.

That would seem to be a very good guess -- the two East games involving the play-in teams would probably take the two early slots on the 24th, leaving the 3v6 and 4v5 matches for the 21st and 22nd.
 
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mgarbowski

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There's no getting around the 1-5-0 start was terrible, but if I'm looking back with regret at one game the team should have won and finished in third place instead of fifth, and therefor play at home, it's the 2-1 loss to New England at home in October. Also reverse the 1-0 Home loss to Toronto in September and we finish second in the league to Philadelphia.
 

LionNYC

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There's no getting around the 1-5-0 start was terrible, but if I'm looking back with regret at one game the team should have won and finished in third place instead of fifth, and therefor play at home, it's the 2-1 loss to New England at home in October. Also reverse the 1-0 Home loss to Toronto in September and we finish second in the league to Philadelphia.
Or if PRO accurately calls the handball at DC (ended 0-0, would be +2 points if won) and doesn't give the goal at Red Bulls (ended 0-1, would be +1 point), we'd also be in 3rd place.

There's that potential foul on Taty when Philadelphia scored during MLS is Back (ended 0-1, would be +1 point). And yeah, that Toronto at RBA loss (crazy ending to the match) and the NE loss at Yankee Stadium (let's consider both of those draws instead at the least).

Add all of those up...We'd be tied on points with Philadelphia, tied on wins, in 2nd place on GD. It's currently a +12 difference in favor of Philadelphia.
 

mgarbowski

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Or if PRO accurately calls the handball at DC (ended 0-0, would be +2 points if won) and doesn't give the goal at Red Bulls (ended 0-1, would be +1 point), we'd also be in 3rd place.

There's that potential foul on Taty when Philadelphia scored during MLS is Back (ended 0-1, would be +1 point). And yeah, that Toronto at RBA loss (crazy ending to the match) and the NE loss at Yankee Stadium (let's consider both of those draws instead at the least).

Add all of those up...We'd be tied on points with Philadelphia, tied on wins, in 2nd place on GD. It's currently a +12 difference in favor of Philadelphia.
JFC
 

twsj91

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So why exactly is the league taking off for the international break before playoffs? Were any MLS players even called up? Or allowed to join their national teams? I thought MLS made a whole to do about not letting players leave because of the virus in other countries, quarantine rules etc...

Edit: I just saw in another thread Callens might be getting called up to Peru. This still doesn't answer the question of the league/club telling national teams no in such a vital part of the season.
 
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mgarbowski

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DSCF0365.jpg

What follows is a somewhat scattershot series of observations on NYCFC's rather odd 2020 season now that all the numbers are in. There were 23 games, three home sites (one in Florida and shared with the entire league), the MLS Is Back Tournament, of which some games counted as league games and some did not, two midseason breaks, one for pandemic lockdown and another for the league to plan things out after tournament, a terrible start, a failure to score more than 1 goal in 14 of 23 games, the loss of the team's leading scorer of 2019 to injury, and the midseason transfer of a Designated Player to accommodate personal circumstances.

History Lessons
If you want to sharpen the differences and not be bound by seasons or coaching changes, here is a good way to break up NYCFC’s history (regular season games only):

First 42 Games: 1.088 PPG - This includes 2015 plus Vieira’s First 8 games
Next 81: 1.815 PPG - This includes the remainder of Vieira’s time plus the first 6 Torrent games before his slump.
The last 70: 1.657 PPG - Everything from the start of the Dome slump to date

If you're willing to fine tune it some more:
The last 58: 1.828 PPG - All games after the Dome slump, from the final game of 2018 to today.

Ronny Deila currently has a higher PPG than Vieira but is below Torrent. The team’s 1.686 PPG this year just beats Vieira’s 2017 1.676 for second best season PPG ever.

Notes on 2020
Since starting 0-4-0 the team played 2.05 PPG pg over 19 games, much of it without 2 of its best scoring threats, and even a good chunk without Maxi.

Thru the first 19 games in 2020, NYC scored 1.26 G/Gm and allowed 1.00 G/Gm. The 2015 NYCFC team scored 49 goals for 1.44 goals per game, easily the lowest G/Gm in club history. To exceed that ratio and avoid being the worst scoring team in club history, 2020 needed to score at least 10 goals in its last 4 games. It scored 13 and ended at 1.61. That was still low enough to be the second lowest Goals per Game ratio the club has achieved.

2019 NYCFC gave up 42 goals for 1.25 GA/Gm. 2020 had to allow 9 goals or fewer over the last 4 to be the best defensive team (as measured by that single metric) in club history. They yielded 6 and finished at 1.09 The next best season was 2019 at 1.24 Goals Against per Game.

On Goal Differential, 2020 ended with the second best GD per game at 0.52. The 2019 team is the best with 0.62.

2020 Home/Away and Uniform Breakdowns

Excluding MLS is Back
Home 7-2-0 2.33 PPG
Away 4-4-3 1.36 PPG

With MLS Is Back
Home 7-4-0 1.91 PPG
Away 5-4-3- 1.50 PPG

Home is Where You Make It
"Home" in Orlando 0-2-0 0.00 PPG
"Home" in RBA 4-1-0 2.40 PPG
Home in Yankee Stadium 3-1-0 2.25 PPG

Uniforms
Primary Kit 9-6-3 1.67 PPG
Secondary Kit 3-2-0 1.80 PPG

DP Play/Absence
NYCFC has never had a season in which at least one designated player did not fail to appear in at least 10 games. With a 23 game season, and 3 DPs on the roster from Day One of camp, the team has never been better positioned to end the streak. Certainly, I anticipated that you would have to pro rate to the 23 game season equivalent of 10 games over 34 to claim to extend the streak. But NYCFC will always NYCFC, and managed to have not just one but two DPs miss 10 actual games in just 23 opportunities. Maxi Moralez was hurt, and missed 10 games. Mitrita left for personal reasons, and missed 11. It was the first time NYCFC had 2 DPs miss at least 10 games since 2015, and that season started with just 1 DP on the roster. This was quite a performance. However, 2015 remains the worst DP participation season ever, measured by both percentage of games played and of minutes played. 2020 was second worst.

2015 DPs played in 47.07% of possible minutes, and 52.94% of possible games. In 2020, they played 49.42% of available minutes and 68.12% of games.

Advanced Stats
All of the below is gleaned from and with thanks to American Soccer Analysis.

On a net basis, NYCFC's true Goal Differential outperformed xGD by 0.84 cumulative over the season, which is pretty close to on point. So according to xG, NYC was exactly what their record said it was. Still, NYC had the 4th best xGD in the league, but only 6th best Actual GD, because Columbus, Philadelphia and Orlando strongly over performed.

NYCFC had 39.14 xG and scored 36 excluding one own goal gift. -3.14
NYCFC conceded 28.97 xG and real 25 for + 3.97

NYC had 39 points and 37.84 xPts, and so over performed by 1.16, which seems roughly in line with the G-xG differential. In the East, Philadelphia outdid its xPts by 11.36, Columbus by 10.37, and Orlando by 6.76 and each had fewer xPts than NYCFC. But before you curse the fates, also know that Toronto and New England had more xPts than NYCFC. Toronto also overperformed, but New England trailed its xPts by 6.98.

On the newer Goals Added stat ("g+"), NYC had an For/Against differential of +12.55, second only to Seattle’s 13.72. If that stat really is all that the ASA gang claims for it, there's a case to be made that for all of the struggles, NYCFC had the second best performance of any team in MLS.
 

Shwafta

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View attachment 10951

What follows is a somewhat scattershot series of observations on NYCFC's rather odd 2020 season now that all the numbers are in. There were 23 games, three home sites (one in Florida and shared with the entire league), the MLS Is Back Tournament, of which some games counted as league games and some did not, two midseason breaks, one for pandemic lockdown and another for the league to plan things out after tournament, a terrible start, a failure to score more than 1 goal in 14 of 23 games, the loss of the team's leading scorer of 2019 to injury, and the midseason transfer of a Designated Player to accommodate personal circumstances.

History Lessons
If you want to sharpen the differences and not be bound by seasons or coaching changes, here is a good way to break up NYCFC’s history (regular season games only):

First 42 Games: 1.088 PPG - This includes 2015 plus Vieira’s First 8 games
Next 81: 1.815 PPG - This includes the remainder of Vieira’s time plus the first 6 Torrent games before his slump.
The last 70: 1.657 PPG - Everything from the start of the Dome slump to date

If you're willing to fine tune it some more:
The last 58: 1.828 PPG - All games after the Dome slump, from the final game of 2018 to today.

Ronny Deila currently has a higher PPG than Vieira but is below Torrent. The team’s 1.686 PPG this year just beats Vieira’s 2017 1.676 for second best season PPG ever.

Notes on 2020
Since starting 0-4-0 the team played 2.05 PPG pg over 19 games, much of it without 2 of its best scoring threats, and even a good chunk without Maxi.

Thru the first 19 games in 2020, NYC scored 1.26 G/Gm and allowed 1.00 G/Gm. The 2015 NYCFC team scored 49 goals for 1.44 goals per game, easily the lowest G/Gm in club history. To exceed that ratio and avoid being the worst scoring team in club history, 2020 needed to score at least 10 goals in its last 4 games. It scored 13 and ended at 1.61. That was still low enough to be the second lowest Goals per Game ratio the club has achieved.

2019 NYCFC gave up 42 goals for 1.25 GA/Gm. 2020 had to allow 9 goals or fewer over the last 4 to be the best defensive team (as measured by that single metric) in club history. They yielded 6 and finished at 1.09 The next best season was 2019 at 1.24 Goals Against per Game.

On Goal Differential, 2020 ended with the second best GD per game at 0.52. The 2019 team is the best with 0.62.

2020 Home/Away and Uniform Breakdowns

Excluding MLS is Back
Home 7-2-0 2.33 PPG
Away 4-4-3 1.36 PPG

With MLS Is Back
Home 7-4-0 1.91 PPG
Away 5-4-3- 1.50 PPG

Home is Where You Make It
"Home" in Orlando 0-2-0 0.00 PPG
"Home" in RBA 4-1-0 2.40 PPG
Home in Yankee Stadium 3-1-0 2.25 PPG

Uniforms
Primary Kit 9-6-3 1.67 PPG
Secondary Kit 3-2-0 1.80 PPG

DP Play/Absence
NYCFC has never had a season in which at least one designated player did not fail to appear in at least 10 games. With a 23 game season, and 3 DPs on the roster from Day One of camp, the team has never been better positioned to end the streak. Certainly, I anticipated that you would have to pro rate to the 23 game season equivalent of 10 games over 34 to claim to extend the streak. But NYCFC will always NYCFC, and managed to have not just one but two DPs miss 10 actual games in just 23 opportunities. Maxi Moralez was hurt, and missed 10 games. Mitrita left for personal reasons, and missed 11. It was the first time NYCFC had 2 DPs miss at least 10 games since 2015, and that season started with just 1 DP on the roster. This was quite a performance. However, 2015 remains the worst DP participation season ever, measured by both percentage of games played and of minutes played. 2020 was second worst.

2015 DPs played in 47.07% of possible minutes, and 52.94% of possible games. In 2020, they played 49.42% of available minutes and 68.12% of games.

Advanced Stats
All of the below is gleaned from and with thanks to American Soccer Analysis.

On a net basis, NYCFC's true Goal Differential outperformed xGD by 0.84 cumulative over the season, which is pretty close to on point. So according to xG, NYC was exactly what their record said it was. Still, NYC had the 4th best xGD in the league, but only 6th best Actual GD, because Columbus, Philadelphia and Orlando strongly over performed.

NYCFC had 39.14 xG and scored 36 excluding one own goal gift. -3.14
NYCFC conceded 28.97 xG and real 25 for + 3.97

NYC had 39 points and 37.84 xPts, and so over performed by 1.16, which seems roughly in line with the G-xG differential. In the East, Philadelphia outdid its xPts by 11.36, Columbus by 10.37, and Orlando by 6.76 and each had fewer xPts than NYCFC. But before you curse the fates, also know that Toronto and New England had more xPts than NYCFC. Toronto also overperformed, but New England trailed its xPts by 6.98.

On the newer Goals Added stat ("g+"), NYC had an For/Against differential of +12.55, second only to Seattle’s 13.72. If that stat really is all that the ASA gang claims for it, there's a case to be made that for all of the struggles, NYCFC had the second best performance of any team in MLS.
What's crazy about all this is that we did all this without playing our main DP's for almost half the season. And missing our main striker. That's the real amazing part! So many "what ifs" for if maxi, heber, mitrita were there for the long run and not injured/gone
 

Shwafta

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Doyle thinks we go through to the conference final and then lose to toronto. interesting.
 
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mgarbowski

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Doyle thinks we go through to the conference final and then lose to toronto. interesting.
Somebody had to pick TOR-SEA.

WRT NYCFC, any prediction is reasonable. Blowing out at any point due to a bonehead play, freak injury or sudden regression to never putting the ball in the net is the safe pick but not certain. Winning MLS Cup is a stretch but not unthinkable.
 

moogoo

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Somebody had to pick TOR-SEA.

WRT NYCFC, any prediction is reasonable. Blowing out at any point due to a bonehead play, freak injury or sudden regression to never putting the ball in the net is the safe pick but not certain. Winning MLS Cup is a stretch but not unthinkable.
very true. we are such a wild card team this year. i suppose that's slightly better than the full confidence last year being crushed by two bonehead plays.
 
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ZYanksRule

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Somebody had to pick TOR-SEA.

WRT NYCFC, any prediction is reasonable. Blowing out at any point due to a bonehead play, freak injury or sudden regression to never putting the ball in the net is the safe pick but not certain. Winning MLS Cup is a stretch but not unthinkable.
Agreed. I have absolutely no idea what to expect this postseason. I usually feel like I have a pretty good read on this team, but I just have no clue right now. It could be literally anything.
 

canchon

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Like everyone else, I have no idea. The usual “NYCFC is better but will shoot itself in the foot” narrative doesn’t apply - they are the lower seed and as others have said, it’s been a wacky season.

my prediction is still that they will go out with an L to Orlando but wouldn’t be surprised if they won down there and headed most likely to Philly next.