COVID-19 - Leagues Suspended

VernonJohn

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Maybe this should be moved to another thread but it’s related to staying inside due to Covid and seeking distraction.
Last night I burned away some hours I could have used on self improvement as I tried out Football Manager.
My team was NYCFC and the virtual team was hilariously similar to the flesh and blood squad.
Mitrita dribbled into the opposition turning over the ball, Matarita got injured, Ibeagha turned the ball over leading to easy goals on two occasions, finishing in the final third was generally horrible... but Heber scored 3 and Isi netted 2 in the run of play in ways you would expect. Callens also scored on a set piece much like he did in the first round of CONCACAF.
Just wondering if anyone out there plays football manager. I think it’s too complex and demands more time than I have me but it was fun for a chunk of late night into early morning hours watching “NYCFC”.
 

gbservis

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Damn, NYC messed up the release of the data. The page where you get the PDFs was updated on schedule shortly after 7pm and claimed they had data as of 4pm, but the pdfs they fed you were still as of 8:30am and I didn't catch that. They have since fixed it. Still some positive news, though not nearly as much:

New NYC cases today are higher than yesterday, but lower than the day before. That's actually still somewhat positive though not anywhere as good being down 2 days in a row. I think it really just means 2 days ago there was an outlier of an upward blip. On the plus side, the doubling interval does seem to be increasing.

But the deaths went way up, from 365 to 450. What is most odd is there was 1 death reported between 5pm Thursday night and 8:30 am Friday morning, then 84 new deaths reported during the day. Presumably deaths during the night shift are not reported until during the next day, which is fine, but then they shouldn't even have 8:30am reports.

The national deaths per million still holds. One thing about those numbers though is they will only go up. Deaths as a percentage of cases can fluctuate. Deaths per population only increases. But my hope is we remain on the low end for similar countries whose data reporting I trust.
There is a lot of noise in the data right now. The testing capacity increased tremendously this week and the collection to result time sped up as well mid week. So a few of those days that have the highest increases in new cases are somewhat inflated due to testing backlog clearing quickly and more people getting tested.

Cuomo also said some yesterday that some hospitals had fallen behind on reporting and started batching their submissions resulting in data delays. Originally the state required a ton of information on each patient and it got to be too much for some hospitals to keep up with. The state simplified to reporting requirements and the backlogs cleared. They didn't provide any info on the magnitude of the delayed reporting but it's another possible noise source that is now resolved.

With such an aggressive doubling rate we don't really have the luxury of waiting for a more reasonable sample size but I think the data is getting a lot better and the next 3-4 days should be very telling.
 

mgarbowski

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Cuomo also said some yesterday that some hospitals had fallen behind on reporting and started batching their submissions resulting in data delays. Originally the state required a ton of information on each patient and it got to be too much for some hospitals to keep up with. The state simplified to reporting requirements and the backlogs cleared. They didn't provide any info on the magnitude of the delayed reporting but it's another possible noise source that is now resolved.
This might be right. The overnight numbers from last night make sense. I won't post them. No need to summarize every update. Anyone who wants them can find them (I posted the link above). But it appears NYC continues to get worse, though at a slower pace, which is good. To the extent flattening the curve works, it also means this lasts longer. So we're buckling up.
 

413Blue

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I've tried looking but have not had any luck, which leads me to be believe the answer to this question is far from resolved by the medical community. What is the average length of date of suspected exposure to death for those that are dying? I'm sure the range is massive depending on a number of circumstances, but i'd figure an average figure might be available by now.
I'm mostly curious to see how many of the italian deaths go back to before certain stages of lockdown.
 
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ZYanksRule

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I've tried looking but have not had any luck, which leads me to be believe the answer to this question is far from resolved by the medical community. What is the average length of date of suspected exposure to death for those that are dying? I'm sure the range is massive depending on a number of circumstances, but i'd figure an average figure might be available by now.
I'm mostly curious to see how many of the italian deaths go back to before certain stages of lockdown.
The average person starts feeling symptoms 5 days after they contract the virus, though it has gone as long as 10-12 days. That's why the quarantine time is 14 days.

From what I've read, the first week of symptoms in most cases is relatively minor and able to be handled at home. Then after a week you either get better or the pneumonia sets in and you get very sick. If you get pneumonia, it's apparently weeks. Cuomo said the average person with coronavirus needs a ventilator for 11-21 days, and the longer it goes the less likely you are to survive.

So basically, people who died could have theoretically been battling this for at least two weeks, and perhaps longer.

I should note that I'm not an expert and this is just from what I'm reading in the media.
 

mgarbowski

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I've tried looking but have not had any luck, which leads me to be believe the answer to this question is far from resolved by the medical community. What is the average length of date of suspected exposure to death for those that are dying? I'm sure the range is massive depending on a number of circumstances, but i'd figure an average figure might be available by now.
I'm mostly curious to see how many of the italian deaths go back to before certain stages of lockdown.
I have not seen any such figures reported. It must be tough to determine exposure. When we had a handful of cases I think they were able to do so with some reasonable certainty by tracing mutual connections like the psychiatry convention here in NY. And they are pretty sure a lot of the Italian and Spanish cases came from that Atalanta UCL game. But now I doubt we have much idea when most people were infected. I did discover a week or so ago -- I forget where -- that the median (not average) time for symptoms to start is 5 days, and the 14 day maximum seems pretty solid (though I'm sure there are outliers). Maybe if you can find the standard time from symptoms to death (for cases that end that way) you can use this to get an imperfect estimate.
 

Christopher Jee

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I have not seen any such figures reported. It must be tough to determine exposure. When we had a handful of cases I think they were able to do so with some reasonable certainty by tracing mutual connections like the psychiatry convention here in NY. And they are pretty sure a lot of the Italian and Spanish cases came from that Atalanta UCL game. But now I doubt we have much idea when most people were infected. I did discover a week or so ago -- I forget where -- that the median (not average) time for symptoms to start is 5 days, and the 14 day maximum seems pretty solid (though I'm sure there are outliers). Maybe if you can find the standard time from symptoms to death (for cases that end that way) you can use this to get an imperfect estimate.
I'm curious where the data alluded to in this tweet came from. It's relatively easy to crowd source those data points
 
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NYCFC_Dan

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If someone can source this please quote me and do so. I saw another stat that only about 6-7% of the cases require hospitalization or go serious/critical.
In a way that’s almost a bad thing as it leaves 90+ percent of people to quarantine. Society is putting a lot of trust in those who have contracted this and tested positive and have been ordered to quarantine.
My sister in law works at a pharmacy and they had 2 people in 1 day come in to pick up prescriptions and they admitted to contracting it.
Edit- this wasn’t the stat I saw but here is Canada’s info.
 

mgarbowski

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If someone can source this please quote me and do so. I saw another stat that only about 6-7% of the cases require hospitalization or go serious/critical.
In a way that’s almost a bad thing as it leaves 90+ percent of people to quarantine. Society is putting a lot of trust in those who have contracted this and tested positive and have been ordered to quarantine.
My sister in law works at a pharmacy and they had 2 people in 1 day come in to pick up prescriptions and they admitted to contracting it.
Edit- this wasn’t the stat I saw but here is Canada’s info.
Very rough confirmation. NYC is reporting that about 20% of confirmed cases get hospitalized at some point in their progress. We also know we are not testing everyone - they are actively telling sick people to stay away from hospitals until they absolutely must -- which means far less than 20% of all cases are hospitalized. Whether that is 6-7% is a guess.
 

Ulrich

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There is a lot of noise in the data right now. The testing capacity increased tremendously this week and the collection to result time sped up as well mid week. So a few of those days that have the highest increases in new cases are somewhat inflated due to testing backlog clearing quickly and more people getting tested.

Cuomo also said some yesterday that some hospitals had fallen behind on reporting and started batching their submissions resulting in data delays. Originally the state required a ton of information on each patient and it got to be too much for some hospitals to keep up with. The state simplified to reporting requirements and the backlogs cleared. They didn't provide any info on the magnitude of the delayed reporting but it's another possible noise source that is now resolved.

With such an aggressive doubling rate we don't really have the luxury of waiting for a more reasonable sample size but I think the data is getting a lot better and the next 3-4 days should be very telling.
It took 8 days for my sister’s results to come back.
 

Ulrich

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NY Primary moved back to June 23rd, 3 months away..... that’s with best case scenarios, but I can’t envision any best case scenarios with Texas/Florida spring break incubation about to blow up on top of Mardi Gras.......

Edit- it’ll happen then because it has to happen, otherwise it’ll miss before the convention (that probably won’t be a real convention).
 
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ZYanksRule

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Little to no symptoms but was deemed suitable to get the test????? The levels of access the NBA has had in this is nauseating.....
I'm glad he got a test. Just because other sick people can't get one doesn't mean he shouldn't get one. Little to no symptoms could mean he lost smell/taste, or had a fever, or had a cough -- we don't know what his symptoms were, but obviously they were enough for him to get a test. The more people that get tested, the better off we'll be. So it's a good thing he got a test, even if it's upsetting that other people can't.
 

413Blue

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Little to no symptoms but was deemed suitable to get the test????? The levels of access the NBA has had in this is nauseating.....
I understood the players at the early stage. They had all been in several cities, had contact with lots of fans, reporters, staff in airports, restaurants and hotels etc. Identifying them as carriers was a productive use of the tests because it could identify more contacts in more cities than the average person. Remember, we don't have tons of random people running up to us, shaking our hands, giving us hugs, handing us pens, posing for pictures etc. All of those people could have been exposed. By identifying 1 NBA player, you could alert hundreds, maybe thousands of people who should isolate, whereas my old ass had close contact with like 7 people in two weeks lol

Another question I haven't seen answered was where are they getting these tests? Are they hiring private labs that can conduct these on a small scale, or are they using the same labs/tests that we would?
 
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