COVID-19 - Leagues Suspended

ManhattanValley

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My best bet is that the MLS 2020 season (all two weeks of it) gets voided and replaced by some kind of 'MLS Trophy' knockout tournament that they can squeeze into the summer/fall. Whoever wins it gets a nice trophy with an asterisk, the TV companies get a few vaguely exciting games as part of their existing broadcast deal, and the logistical nightmares of trying to play into December or January are avoided. It will mean financial catastrophe for a few teams, but hey, join the club.
You heard it here first, people! Stay tuned for my next exclusive.
 

Rimil

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The bolded part is the kind of thing that makes me nuts. The statement that any number above 1.0 means the virus is spreading exponentially is literally true, but very misleading.

An R0 of 1.1 will not lead to a rapid escalation in cases, even though the spread will be, in the strict mathematical sense of the word, exponential. In fact an R0 of 1.1 is within the limits set by Cuomo for reopening regions of the state.
I'm absolutely fine with that reporting. The world needs to raise its math standards. Journalist shouldn't lower theirs to meet colloquial understanding of the word exponential.
 

Rimil

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5% sounds low. I have seen results of 14% in nyc with heavy stay at home orders, sweden could easily be at 25%. But who knows maybe they say those test has poor specificity results and in a month they reassess the number.

It is odd to say the US is at 5% which has a national population assumption, then give a 70k death toll which is heavily sourced from hard hit local regions. I would take it more seriously if they did the 70k as a us per capita value to keep it apples to apples. Those 70k deaths came from double digit prevalance areas not 5% regions. Borderline scare tactics I'm not fond of.

Anyway, on the other end of the spectrum, the idea of what the actual prevalence in country reminded me of this video my wife made me watch of two california doctors talking on the virus. Irritated me to no end. They kept on saying the rate was much much higher. I am like what? where are they getting these numbers. I kept listening and they would go, ok so lets look at how many test NYC did, and they had a ~40% infection rate on those they tested, so extrapolate those numbers to the state and see the death rate isn't any worse then the common flu, in fact its lower........ i wanted to fucking jump through the screen. Horrible assumptions perverting math. Surely the infection rate for testing was not a random sample. Early days the test kits had to be used wisely. Those tested had to be people showing symptoms. For these "doctors" in some bullshit sounding clinic to come out and extrapolate using bias samples to proclaim the death rate is lower then the common flu, i just wanted to punch them in their stupid sellout faces.

No way these guys were real. I mean they might have been real doctors in some super stretched sense of the word, so that if anyone looks up their credentials some sort of doctorate of medicine comes up, but they had to be on the take for some pro-business lobby massively underestimating the death rate. And I am not going into the politics of whether the swedish model is right or not, but for these kinds of videos to be circulating distorting opinion with loose credentials and bad math. It makes me sick and angry.
 
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LionNYC

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NYCFC is in the eMLS Championship Sunday. Sean Johnson is down 0-2 at halftime to Atlanta. He has Ibeagha, Medina, and Mackay Stevens in his lineup. WHAT?

NYCFC down 0-2 after the first leg. NYC_Chris has to makeup the difference in the second leg.
 
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ZYanksRule

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So they're hoping to have a special tournament in Orlando, and a regular season, in home venues, and fit this all in starting in early July. Lemme check that math:
Sounds like five of the games in this tournament will count towards the regular season, so that'll get us to 7 games. And it also sounds like they want to play only intraconference games this season, so that would entail somewhere in the mid-20's for total games this season. Definitely seems possible to have around 20 games between August-October. You'd need some midweek games, but they can make it work.

The reporting I saw says they want to move Nashville to the East for this season so they have an even number of teams in each conference. Could they do a double-round robin, which would mean 26 games in the East and 22 games in the West? I guess that's possible, even though some teams have already played some interconference games. So maybe they just round it out to have everyone play 24 games and figure out the scheduling that way? Or do they not count the two games that were already played and just start the season fresh? That would seem to be unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
 
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mgarbowski

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Sounds like five of the games in this tournament will count towards the regular season, so that'll get us to 7 games. And it also sounds like they want to play only intraconference games this season, so that would entail somewhere in the mid-20's for total games this season. Definitely seems possible to have around 20 games between August-October. You'd need some midweek games, but they can make it work.

The reporting I saw says they want to move Nashville to the East for this season so they have an even number of teams in each conference. Could they do a double-round robin, which would mean 26 games in the East and 22 games in the West? I guess that's possible, even though some teams have already played some interconference games. So maybe they just round it out to have everyone play 24 games and figure out the scheduling that way? Or do they not count the two games that were already played and just start the season fresh? That would seem to be unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
They are unduly complicating things. The Orlando tournament makes sense as a replacement to the regular season, not as an adjunct. I understand why that's not desirable -- both for reasons of cost and player happiness -- so they want to use it as a bridge to normalcy. But I fear they're being too aggressive. Everyone is still not certain if the Bundesliga will finish a 9-game season end without an outbreak or other problems interrupting it again. Bt MLS reversed course on its plan to simplify:

STEP ONE: We have to strip down to the basics and remove everything that is not absolutely required to crown an MLS Cup winner, so no All-Star Game, no Campeones Cup, no USOC, no Leagues Cup [and no CCL?].

Okay makes sense.

STEP TWO: let's invent a new tournament to run concurrently with the regular season and have some but not all of the tournament games count in the standings as well.

Wait, what?

To be fair, I see some of the logic, but it still seems needlessly complicated.
Also to be fair, this proposal eliminates all the things I found intriguing about a possible large scale, season-replacing tournament, such as full mixed East/West tournament groups and a completely unique one-time format to crown the league champion. The season would have been truly different.
Now it's just, Oh look, we play the Red Bulls twice. Like always. Plus Orlando, and Chicago twice, etc. Except in empty stadiums, and no interconference games. Oh. And they're double counting some of the games as a round robin in an added-on made-up tournament and will award the most unimportant trophy in MLS history along the way.
 

Gotham Gator

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I don’t find this as puzzling. I think Orlando is a way to restart things as quickly as possible. Too many states are still on lockdown for clubs to restart at their home facilities. Some could train and play closed door games, but not all.

So, you isolate everyone in Florida for a period and get some games in. By August, hopefully all the teams will be able to fully participate.
 

413Blue

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They are unduly complicating things. The Orlando tournament makes sense as a replacement to the regular season, not as an adjunct. I understand why that's not desirable -- both for reasons of cost and player happiness -- so they want to use it as a bridge to normalcy. But I fear they're being too aggressive. Everyone is still not certain if the Bundesliga will finish a 9-game season end without an outbreak or other problems interrupting it again. Bt MLS reversed course on its plan to simplify:

STEP ONE: We have to strip down to the basics and remove everything that is not absolutely required to crown an MLS Cup winner, so no All-Star Game, no Campeones Cup, no USOC, no Leagues Cup [and no CCL?].

Okay makes sense.

STEP TWO: let's invent a new tournament to run concurrently with the regular season and have some but not all of the tournament games count in the standings as well.

Wait, what?

To be fair, I see some of the logic, but it still seems needlessly complicated.
Also to be fair, this proposal eliminates all the things I found intriguing about a possible large scale, season-replacing tournament, such as full mixed East/West tournament groups and a completely unique one-time format to crown the league champion. The season would have been truly different.
Now it's just, Oh look, we play the Red Bulls twice. Like always. Plus Orlando, and Chicago twice, etc. Except in empty stadiums, and no interconference games. Oh. And they're double counting some of the games as a round robin in an added-on made-up tournament and will award the most unimportant trophy in MLS history along the way.
It sure is complicated and clunky, but given the circumstances, it makes some sense.
1.) It's probably the only way they can get the full league playing at once so soon. No travel, and being based in the state that ended up handling the situation better than most keeps risk of shutdown very minimal.

2.) The tournament/regular season hybrid format allows them to have a meaningful competition that they can likely complete by the time any widespread outbreaks occur in the league. So if they are forced to halt, they have a smooth out at the end of the tournament.
 

mgarbowski

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I don’t find this as puzzling. I think Orlando is a way to restart things as quickly as possible. Too many states are still on lockdown for clubs to restart at their home facilities. Some could train and play closed door games, but not all.

So, you isolate everyone in Florida for a period and get some games in. By August, hopefully all the teams will be able to fully participate.
It sure is complicated and clunky, but given the circumstances, it makes some sense.
1.) It's probably the only way they can get the full league playing at once so soon. No travel, and being based in the state that ended up handling the situation better than most keeps risk of shutdown very minimal.

2.) The tournament/regular season hybrid format allows them to have a meaningful competition that they can likely complete by the time any widespread outbreaks occur in the league. So if they are forced to halt, they have a smooth out at the end of the tournament.
To the extent this is simply (1) start in the controlled Disney campus and (2) spread elsewhere when safe, I'm on board. It's as good a plan as any. It's the hybrid tournament/normal season mutation with some games counting for both I find off-putting.

No Shimmer for me please. Dessert topping or floor wax. Pick one.