Home - September 23 - Toronto (Postgame)

[ZYanksRule]

They actually posted Ronny's post game press conference sooner rather than later (which usually happens after a loss)

He didn't actually focus on the penalty. He talked about it in response to a question but it was a mention and criticism of the hand ball rule and then moved on.

He said he thought we played well for 70 mins but lost focus for the final 20 (which is when he sent on all the subs at once). It's not unexpected that we'd lose our rhythm with a few new players on that late in the game.

The majority of his press conference was harping on finishing our chances. Even Ronny acknowledges that finishing is the issue but fails to realize that the players he puts on the field are not proven finishers (aside from Heber). Our attackers are good but they work best in combination with each other. Much like how Liverpool's front 3 are most dangerous together and not so much when it's just one of them despite having the rest of the team in tact.

Perhaps with Heber's injury and pressure to start scoring, he'll play more attackers and slide ring back into his defensive mid role to give us the backup we need.

Personally I think our guys are playing with more intensity now than they did last year. We certainly seem to commit a lot more fouls pressing than we did last year. Just a gut feeling. I could be wrong as I haven't looked at the stats.

Everyone seems to acknowledge we need to finish our chances. My opinion is we aren't finishing cause the right attackers aren't on the end of the final passes. Chances are there but I think we'd create more, high quality chances and finish them if we played our primary attackers more. They need to get match fit and they need to find their form. No way to do that without actual game time.

I think we all can see the guys are playing hard. But look at who some of the best chances last night came to: Alex Ring and Gary Mackay-Steven. Neither player is one I trust as the guy to score. Heber had a good chance after coming on, but other than that our main attacking players never really got a golden chance. We are doing everything right in the defensive and midfield thirds, but the wrong players are getting the biggest chances. Our front 3 needs to be Mitrita-Castellanos-ITS. That's our three best attacking players, and that's who needs to start up front. Enough with the Medina/GMS as forwards. Medina doesn't have a goal or assist in 8 games, GMS hasn't scored yet this year, and while Taty hasn't scored either, at least he has some history with us of scoring.

 

[moogoo]

I think we all can see the guys are playing hard. But look at who some of the best chances last night came to: Alex Ring and Gary Mackay-Steven. Neither player is one I trust as the guy to score. Heber had a good chance after coming on, but other than that our main attacking players never really got a golden chance. We are doing everything right in the defensive and midfield thirds, but the wrong players are getting the biggest chances. Our front 3 needs to be Mitrita-Castellanos-ITS. That's our three best attacking players, and that's who needs to start up front. Enough with the Medina/GMS as forwards. Medina doesn't have a goal or assist in 8 games, GMS hasn't scored yet this year, and while Taty hasn't scored either, at least he has some history with us of scoring.

Pretty much what I've been saying all season!

 

[SoupInNYC]

I'm sorry but this "finishing" business is a cop-out to me. What does it even mean, really? Last year we averaged almost 2 goals per game, this year less than 1. With mostly the same group of players. Have they gotten worse, as players? Unlucky? Sure you could attribute some of it to pandemic rust and general weirdness. But if you watch the games it is clearly more than that. They are not being put in positions to be successful. I mean that both in terms of formation, and tactically, i.e. practicing passing sequences and off-ball movement.

I do think its a bit of both finishing and what you're getting at.

There have been several shots this year from both Taty and Heber that were goals last season. And while finishing could be better this season and perhaps result in a few extra points, I do agree that the majority of the issues aren't in finishing, but in buildup and players playing the appropriate positions and understanding theirs, as well as everyone else's responsibilities so they can move forward quickly and efficiently.

What was our total expected gX last year? Were we well overperforming? Curious if we are just regressing back to the mean, or if this is way worse than that

Last year we finished a bit higher in goals scored than xG, but I'm not certain I would call it overperforming by too much.

Now, we did have three players last year who individually, outperformed their xG. Last season Heber finished 3rd in the league G-xG, Mitrita finished 7th, and Isi finished 13th.

This is something that I was pondering over the offseason and never got around to writing about, but perhaps may look to revisit and dive deeper into that. Was it truly they just placed their shots better last season? Or was it more indicative of our play being much better that resulted in better opportunities that aren't necessarily reflected that way in xG?

 

[ZYanksRule]

I do think its a bit of both finishing and what you're getting at.

There have been several shots this year from both Taty and Heber that were goals last season. And while finishing could be better this season and perhaps result in a few extra points, I do agree that the majority of the issues aren't in finishing, but in buildup and players playing the appropriate positions and understanding theirs, as well as everyone else's responsibilities so they can move forward quickly and efficiently.

Last year we finished a bit higher in goals scored than xG, but I'm not certain I would call it overperforming by too much.

Now, we did have three players last year who individually, outperformed their xG. Last season Heber finished 3rd in the league G-xG, Mitrita finished 7th, and Isi finished 13th.

This is something that I was pondering over the offseason and never got around to writing about, but perhaps may look to revisit and dive deeper into that. Was it truly they just placed their shots better last season? Or was it more indicative of our play being much better that resulted in better opportunities that aren't necessarily reflected that way in xG?

I feel like the answer to most of these questions is a little bit of everything. And is finishing truly a skill, or is it based on a lot of variance and luck? I'm used to baseball where, for example, batting average with runners in scoring position can swing wildly season-to-season, and is based more on luck than on skill. Is finishing like that, or is there some stylistic reason the team can't finish this season?

 

[mgarbowski]

I do think its a bit of both finishing and what you're getting at.

There have been several shots this year from both Taty and Heber that were goals last season. And while finishing could be better this season and perhaps result in a few extra points, I do agree that the majority of the issues aren't in finishing, but in buildup and players playing the appropriate positions and understanding theirs, as well as everyone else's responsibilities so they can move forward quickly and efficiently.

Last year we finished a bit higher in goals scored than xG, but I'm not certain I would call it overperforming by too much.

Now, we did have three players last year who individually, outperformed their xG. Last season Heber finished 3rd in the league G-xG, Mitrita finished 7th, and Isi finished 13th.

This is something that I was pondering over the offseason and never got around to writing about, but perhaps may look to revisit and dive deeper into that. Was it truly they just placed their shots better last season? Or was it more indicative of our play being much better that resulted in better opportunities that aren't necessarily reflected that way in xG?

Regardless of finishing, the team's xG is way down. Last year they had 1.67 xG per game. Excluding the first 6 games, it was 1.80 xG per game. This year it is 1.30xG per game.

For reference, during the last 13 games of 2018 plus the first 6 of 2019, aka the Dome slump, the xG was 1.41 per game. So right now is worse than that, though not by a ton. For additional reference, 2015 NYCFC generated 1.33 xG per game.

The point is, even with modestly above average finishing this team would not be scoring anywhere near last year's pace, and the team is boring to watch because it is not even generating scoring chances at a decent rate.

Couple of other random points:

• Jesus Medina has now played more minutes in 2020 -- after just 13 games -- than in all of 2019 (773 to 726) but his production is down from 3G 2A in 2019 to 1G and 0A in 2020.
• Injuries to Heber and Maxi have hurt their playing time. Combined, they average just 53 minutes per game -- a number that will only drop even more if Heber is out for the season. But even when they play their production is a combined 0.26 G+A/90.

 

[moogoo]

I feel like the answer to most of these questions is a little bit of everything. And is finishing truly a skill, or is it based on a lot of variance and luck? I'm used to baseball where, for example, batting average with runners in scoring position can swing wildly season-to-season, and is based more on luck than on skill. Is finishing like that, or is there some stylistic reason the team can't finish this season?

Finishing is definitely a skill. Watching world class scorers put the ball in the next makes that pretty clear. It is not luck. They know where they need to be. They know where to put the ball, how much force to kick it with, etc.

It's a skill. A talent. But some of our players definitely have this ability though not world class. We aren't clinical finishers and we have never been aside from Villa. Guarantee the chances we had last night fall to Villa and he'd have 3 goals.

We were able to score so much last year because we had a front line that made defenders scramble, which opened up spaces and gave us more time to pick our spots. We are not good at high traffic finishing and aren't great at finishing off crosses in the air. Yet those are the majority of the chances we have this season based on what I can remember.

 

[ZYanksRule]

Finishing is definitely a skill. Watching world class scorers put the ball in the next makes that pretty clear. It is not luck. They know where they need to be. They know where to put the ball, how much force to kick it with, etc.

It's a skill. A talent. But some of our players definitely have this ability though not world class. We aren't clinical finishers and we have never been aside from Villa. Guarantee the chances we had last night fall to Villa and he'd have 3 goals.

We were able to score so much last year because we had a front line that made defenders scramble, which opened up spaces and gave us more time to pick our spots. We are not good at high traffic finishing and aren't great at finishing off crosses in the air. Yet those are the majority of the chances we have this season based on what I can remember.

I phrased that poorly, but yes -- I think it's probably true that the quality of chances are not as good this year as they were last year. Far more crosses into the box, far fewer one-two passes that open up space. Add into it the guys playing out of position, and it looks real bad.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Finishing is definitely a skill. Watching world class scorers put the ball in the next makes that pretty clear. It is not luck. They know where they need to be. They know where to put the ball, how much force to kick it with, etc.

It's a skill. A talent. But some of our players definitely have this ability though not world class. We aren't clinical finishers and we have never been aside from Villa. Guarantee the chances we had last night fall to Villa and he'd have 3 goals.

We were able to score so much last year because we had a front line that made defenders scramble, which opened up spaces and gave us more time to pick our spots. We are not good at high traffic finishing and aren't great at finishing off crosses in the air. Yet those are the majority of the chances we have this season based on what I can remember.

David Villa was incredible, but outside the 2017 season (which was incredibly elite), he wasn't quite the super-elite finisher. In fact, Heber, Mitrita, and Tajouri-Shradi all had better seasons than any of Villa's other years. Taty also had a solid 2.21.

Villa's 4 seasons with NYCFC, G-xG:

• 2015: -0.11
• 2016: 1.22
• 2017: 5.54
• 2018: 2.51

Last season:

• Heber: 4.96
• Mitrita: 4.10
• Isi: 3.08

Tajouri-Shradi actually holds the clubs best mark for a season historically, with a 5.99 in 2018. Lee Nguyen's 8.68 in 2014 is the best for the league since 2013.

 

[LionNYC]

Indication it's not good...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1309227118094684164

 

[ZYanksRule]

Indication it's not good...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1309227118094684164

As if we needed any more of an indication after he was crying while being carried off the field. His season is over, the only question is whether he will miss the start of next year, too.

 

[mgarbowski]

David Villa was incredible, but outside the 2017 season (which was incredibly elite), he wasn't quite the super-elite finisher. In fact, Heber, Mitrita, and Tajouri-Shradi all had better seasons than any of Villa's other years. Taty also had a solid 2.21.

Villa's 4 seasons with NYCFC, G-xG:

• 2015: -0.11
• 2016: 1.22
• 2017: 5.54
• 2018: 2.51

From 2015 through 2018 cumulative, Villa ranked second overall in both xG created and in actual Goals scored in MLS. In finishing -- Goals minus xG -- he ranked fourth. That's still damn good, but not as good as his ability simply to take a lot of high percentage shots. Notably, all three people ahead of him on the "finishing" metric both scored fewer goals and generated fewer xG. He was a good finisher, but even better at taking a lot of high percentage chance (plus enough low percentage ones to add up).

Are great scorers great because they (1) finish better than average, (2) create chances on their own that lesser players cannot, or (3) run into perfect spaces at the perfect time where teammates can pass to them?

Yes.

But if you want consistency, I think you're better off excelling in 2 and 3 than 1. Everyone is obsessed with NYCFC's bad finishing this year. And it's bad. But the giant drop in xG production is, I think, kind of ignored. Over a long haul, great finishing can't make up for a scarcity of good shot opportunities. 2020 NYCFC is creating xG at a 2015 NYCFC level.

 

[Shwafta]

• Jesus Medina has now played more minutes in 2020 -- after just 13 games -- than in all of 2019 (773 to 726) but his production is down from 3G 2A in 2019 to 1G and 0A in 2020.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure everyone has those production numbers down, not just him. Not saying don't blame Medina, but I'm saying don't blame solely Medina. In fact, I'd say this year I've liked his workrate and effort for the team a lot more than last year.

Still sucks to see such ridiculous numbers from one of our DP's - where our other two are also just about the same in terms of numbers. yikes.

 

[ZYanksRule]

To be fair, I'm pretty sure everyone has those production numbers down, not just him. Not saying don't blame Medina, but I'm saying don't blame solely Medina. In fact, I'd say this year I've liked his workrate and effort for the team a lot more than last year.

Still sucks to see such ridiculous numbers from one of our DP's - where our other two are also just about the same in terms of numbers. yikes.

Our best players have been awful or unable to get on the field this year. I feel like this season isn't complicated.

Maxi Moralez - couldn't stay healthy
Heber - couldn't score, now out for the season
Jesus Medina - nonexistent production
Mitrita - can't get on the field

Show me one team in MLS that would be successful when their four best attacking players have seasons like those four. (Yes, I realize Medina isn't our true-talent top-4 player, but he's a DP and taking up more of the cap than other guys)

 

[SoupInNYC]

From 2015 through 2018 cumulative, Villa ranked second overall in both xG created and in actual Goals scored in MLS. In finishing -- Goals minus xG -- he ranked fourth. That's still damn good, but not as good as his ability simply to take a lot of high percentage shots. Notably, all three people ahead of him on the "finishing" metric both scored fewer goals and generated fewer xG. He was a good finisher, but even better at taking a lot of high percentage chance (plus enough low percentage ones to add up).

Are great scorers great because they (1) finish better than average, (2) create chances on their own that lesser players cannot, or (3) run into perfect spaces at the perfect time where teammates can pass to them?

Yes.

But if you want consistency, I think you're better off excelling in 2 and 3 than 1. Everyone is obsessed with NYCFC's bad finishing this year. And it's bad. But the giant drop in xG production is, I think, kind of ignored. Over a long haul, great finishing can't make up for a scarcity of good shot opportunities. 2020 NYCFC is creating xG at a 2015 NYCFC level.

All of this definitely. I didn't intend at all to talk down about Villa's abilities as a striker or even argue that others were much better than him (or any of our current players are better strikers than Villa).

All I wanted to point to is that he wasn't the incredibly elite finisher that some make him out to be.

2 and 3 are definitely much better characteristics of top strikers for sure.

 

[mgarbowski]

All of this definitely. I didn't intend at all to talk down about Villa's abilities as a striker or even argue that others were much better than him (or any of our current players are better strikers than Villa).

All I wanted to point to is that he wasn't the incredibly elite finisher that some make him out to be.

2 and 3 are definitely much better characteristics of top strikers for sure.

And I was amplifying, not disagreeing.

 

[Annagram]

All I wanted to point to is that he wasn't the incredibly elite finisher that some make him out to be.

440 career goals would hint at Villa being an incredibly elite finisher. Maybe his most productive years weren't with NYCFC, though.

Of the current team, Héber is a good finisher but seemed to have lost his self-confidence, which is the most important feature for a striker. Tajouri-Shradi can at times create a chance and a goal out of nothing, and when fit, he would strengthen the team. Mackay-Steven has played a bit better recently, but he is the least probable scorer of all attacking players in this team. Castellanos is a half step behind Tajouri-Shradi what it comes to finishing. Mitrita is the enigma: he's got a powerful and accurate shot but very seldom gets into scoring position, because either he loses the ball in the build-up, or is warming the bench.

 

[Schwallacus]

What it comes down to this season is an inability to set ourselves up for a decent chance. Thank you to mgarbowski and SoupInNYC (and anyone else with the stats) to show just how poor we've been under Ronny. All our buildup and possession leads to nothing aside from a poor shot or turnover. Ronny seems to be looking at his own statistical interpretation of xG, based off his statement of the team creating more vs. last season. It's asinine to me that he thinks the team is doing well. I think there's been one game where we've looked partially exciting (v. TFC in the MLS is Back playoff), whereas the rest have been snoozefests and difficult to enjoy while watching. There's no way City can be happy with his coaching, these abhorrent formations/tactics look nothing like the "CFG way/vision" that we were told about.

Just makes me sad to see so many players with potential to play beautiful football get caught up in this crockpot of shit.

 

[SoupInNYC]

440 career goals would hint at Villa being an incredibly elite finisher. Maybe his most productive years weren't with NYCFC, though.

Yep, I didn't include that particular detail in that sentence though the rest of my posts were tailored towards his time here at NYCFC, and most specifically, three of his seasons here as I noted 2017 was highly efficient.

 

[Shwafta]

Just makes me sad to see so many players with potential to play beautiful football get caught up in this crockpot of shit.

The use of 'crockpot' in this sentence is so tragically beautiful because that's exactly what it is - slowly burning away what Vieira/Dome built