MLS Playoff Race - 2019

Gotham Gator

Registered
Donor
Feb 9, 2015
13,619
28,417
353
58
Bronxville, NY
Only two weeks left. This Sunday, with the East at 5pm and the West games at 7:30pm; and next Sunday, Decision Day, with everyone playing at 5pm.

Here are the standings and games remaining. Who is in and out? Who gets which seed? Who do we draw in the post season?

Standings & Schedule.jpg
 
  • Like
Reactions: adam
In the east, NYC can get pipped by Philly more easily than might appear to be the case.

Still, more interesting is whether Atlanta or Philly finish 2nd. Atlanta have the tiebreaker and the easier schedule, so I think they make up the 1 point deficit.

At the bottom, New England may be 4 points up, but they can't feel safe with their closing schedule. Plus, all 3 of the teams chasing New England have the tiebreaker. Wouldn't it be great if both Chicago and Orlando win on Sunday, and New England ties or loses? That would mean the winner of Orlando and Chicago would have a fair shot at catching a New England team that finishes in Atlanta.

In the race for 4th place and a home playoff game, DC and NJ face off in a big match in Red Bull Arena on Sunday. Each have a favorable final game, so the winner (or DC in a draw) will have the inside track. Toronto sits just behind those two and can easily finish in fourth with two wins.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SoupInNYC
Only two weeks left. This Sunday, with the East at 5pm and the West games at 7:30pm; and next Sunday, Decision Day, with everyone playing at 5pm.

Here are the standings and games remaining. Who is in and out? Who gets which seed? Who do we draw in the post season?

View attachment 10299

Atlanta has clinched at least the 3rd seed. Only things that concern us is:

1. Us earning 1pt in the next 2. Or PHI dropping 1pt in the next 2.
2. Who slots into the 4&5 seeds from DCU, NJRB, & TOR. Considering DCU & NJRB play each other this week, TOR should get 1 of those spots and the winner of that match will get the other.
 
Only two weeks left. This Sunday, with the East at 5pm and the West games at 7:30pm; and next Sunday, Decision Day, with everyone playing at 5pm.

Here are the standings and games remaining. Who is in and out? Who gets which seed? Who do we draw in the post season?

View attachment 10299

pretty tight when it comes to seeding. it's really not an easy guess. 1 through 3 are pretty set between us, phl, atl. 4-7 have potential to change a lot.

would be interesting to see a HRD in the 2nd round of playoffs. going through the red bulls to get to the cup would be really icing on the cake.
 
So, 538 has NYC at 92% to win the East. They also have Atlanta and Philly basically 50-50 to finish 2nd.

The Red Bulls and DC United are about even to finish in 4th (46-45%), with Toronto farther behind than I would have thought (9%).

New England has a 76% chance of finishing 7th.
 
If DCU can get a draw in Red Bull Arena, they look really good to take 4th place. They've got FC Cincy at home in their last game. A win in their easiest game of the year would put them clear of New Jersey. Toronto would have to win both of its last two games to catch DC and also finish ahead on goal differential.
 
You guys are all scared of getting 0 points from 2 games when we haven't gotten 0 points from a game in like two months
 
You guys are all scared of getting 0 points from 2 games when we haven't gotten 0 points from a game in like two months

Our last loss was 8/11 @ Atlanta. The only time we lost 2 in a row as Portland 7/7 & @NJRB 7/14, where were very shorthanded. Again @NER we are very shorthanded. I almost like our chances of a point better @PHI when we should have our whole squad back. Really hoping CLB helps us out Sunday. All the matches are the same time, so we won't know till after we've played if we needed the get the point ourselves.
 
Our last loss was 8/11 @ Atlanta. The only time we lost 2 in a row as Portland 7/7 & @NJRB 7/14, where were very shorthanded. Again @NER we are very shorthanded. I almost like our chances of a point better @PHI when we should have our whole squad back. Really hoping CLB helps us out Sunday. All the matches are the same time, so we won't know till after we've played if we needed the get the point ourselves.

would be wonderful to have it clinched before decision day. i'm not afraid of taking on philly... but i am worried they will injure our guys.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SoupInNYC and adam
would be wonderful to have it clinched before decision day. i'm not afraid of taking on philly... but i am worried they will injure our guys.

If it's nothing major and we have the bye, there's plenty time to heal up after DD.
 
In the east, NYC can get pipped by Philly more easily than might appear to be the case.
I end up worried or confident depending on how I look at it.
Worried:
It is a huge benefit to Philadelphia that we play each other. In any other situation, a 6 point deficit with 2 games left for each team would mean they have to have 4 games go perfectly, and they would only have the ability to affect 2 of them. But because we play each other it is just 3 and they still affect 2. That's really important. They win one, we lose one, and then it's just 1 game they have to win and the fact that they (in this scenario) managed to roll a hard six starting last night has no effect on the likelihood of them winning a home game. It's like blowing a 3-0 lead in a 7 game series. It is no solace to know how few teams come back from 3-0 because by the time you get to game 7 the odds are very different. The comeback team has already overcome all the long odds just to get there. Now nobody has to win 4 in a row. It's just not that ridiculous that they win 2 in a row and we lose the other.

Confident:
Each of the 3 games has 3 possible outcomes. We own 2 of the outcomes for each game; Philly just one. And they have to hit on all 3 while we just need 1 good result. Not all outcomes are equally likely but in MLS any 2 outcomes for a game are usually worth more than 50% of the possibilities, so The Union needs to hit on less than even odds in 3 games. And it's not chance, NYCFC gets to affect the outcome of 2 of them.

One way or another I think it ends this weekend. If not..... I still like our chances but it's nail biting time.
 
I end up worried or confident depending on how I look at it.
Worried:
It is a huge benefit to Philadelphia that we play each other. In any other situation, a 6 point deficit with 2 games left for each team would mean they have to have 4 games go perfectly, and they would only have the ability to affect 2 of them. But because we play each other it is just 3 and they still affect 2. That's really important. They win one, we lose one, and then it's just 1 game they have to win...
This is pretty much the perfect summation for why Philly finishing first is more likely than it seems.
 
I end up worried or confident depending on how I look at it.
Worried:
It is a huge benefit to Philadelphia that we play each other. In any other situation, a 6 point deficit with 2 games left for each team would mean they have to have 4 games go perfectly, and they would only have the ability to affect 2 of them. But because we play each other it is just 3 and they still affect 2. That's really important. They win one, we lose one, and then it's just 1 game they have to win and the fact that they (in this scenario) managed to roll a hard six starting last night has no effect on the likelihood of them winning a home game. It's like blowing a 3-0 lead in a 7 game series. It is no solace to know how few teams come back from 3-0 because by the time you get to game 7 the odds are very different. The comeback team has already overcome all the long odds just to get there. Now nobody has to win 4 in a row. It's just not that ridiculous that they win 2 in a row and we lose the other.

Confident:
Each of the 3 games has 3 possible outcomes. We own 2 of the outcomes for each game; Philly just one. And they have to hit on all 3 while we just need 1 good result. Not all outcomes are equally likely but in MLS any 2 outcomes for a game are usually worth more than 50% of the possibilities, so The Union needs to hit on less than even odds in 3 games. And it's not chance, NYCFC gets to affect the outcome of 2 of them.

One way or another I think it ends this weekend. If not..... I still like our chances but it's nail biting time.
And even if we finish 2nd to Philly (which would really suck, don't get me wrong), I would hands down take going into the playoffs with the only two possible road games being at Philly or MLS cup at LAFC. We don't have to play at Red Bull, Atlanta, or Toronto.
 
The West is pretty interesting. There are 4 different teams (Minnesota, Galaxy, Sounders, RSL) that could still finish 2nd. And RSL could still possibly miss the playoffs.
 
And even if we finish 2nd to Philly (which would really suck, don't get me wrong), I would hands down take going into the playoffs with the only two possible road games being at Philly or MLS cup at LAFC. We don't have to play at Red Bull, Atlanta, or Toronto.
Yeah. Give us 2 chances to win in Philly and we win one of them.
 
And even if we finish 2nd to Philly (which would really suck, don't get me wrong), I would hands down take going into the playoffs with the only two possible road games being at Philly or MLS cup at LAFC. We don't have to play at Red Bull, Atlanta, or Toronto.

But the bye is huge. Otherwise we have 2 matches in 3-4 days in rounds 1 & 2.