MLS Week 11 - 2019

[LionNYC]

MAY 8 - WEDNESDAY
Atlanta United FC vs. Toronto FC 7 PM
Columbus Crew SC vs. LA Galaxy 7:30 PM
Chicago Fire vs. New England Revolution 8 PM
New Jersey Red Bulls vs. Montreal Impact 8 PM

MAY 10 - FRIDAY
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Portland Timbers 10 PM

MAY 11 - SATURDAY
FC Cincinnati vs. Montreal Impact 1 PM
FC Dallas vs. New Jersey Red Bulls 2 PM (Univision, Twitter)
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union 3 PM
LA Galaxy vs. New York City FC 4 PM (ESPN)
Columbus Crew SC vs. Los Angeles Football Club 7:30 PM
New England Revolution vs. San Jose Earthquakes 7:30 PM
Chicago Fire vs. Minnesota United FC 8 PM
Colorado Rapids vs. Real Salt Lake 9 PM
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Houston Dynamo 10 PM

MAY 12 - SUNDAY
Atlanta United FC vs. Orlando City SC 2:30 PM (FOX)
D.C. United vs. Sporting Kansas City 7 PM (FS1)

 

[Gotham Gator]

One big question was whether the three historically strong teams in the East would shake out of their languorous play and return to form - and if so, what would that do to the playoff race.

Well, now Atlanta and New York have won 3 of 4, and New Jersey has won 2 in a row, including over the league's top team on PPG. The three teams are occupying the 5th through 7th positions in PPG - all above the playoff line.

Right now, that has knocked Orlando, Columbus and Chicago below the playoff line, and Montreal could fall to 7th with this week's games. The question is whether any of NYC, ATL and NJ can catch and pass TOR, DCU and PHI - who are all on good form.

 

[adam]

One big question was whether the three historically strong teams in the East would shake out of their languorous play and return to form - and if so, what would that do to the playoff race.

Well, now Atlanta and New York have won 3 of 4, and New Jersey has won 2 in a row, including over the league's top team on PPG. The three teams are occupying the 5th through 7th positions in PPG - all above the playoff line.

Right now, that has knocked Orlando, Columbus and Chicago below the playoff line, and Montreal could fall to 7th with this week's games. The question is whether any of NYC, ATL and NJ can catch and pass TOR, DCU and PHI - who are all on good form.

I think the 3 favorites starting slow will lead to a wild finish in the standings. Only Toronto can spoil by keeping up their current pace and not falling off.

 

[mgarbowski]

I think the 3 favorites starting slow will lead to a wild finish in the standings. Only Toronto can spoil by keeping up their current pace and not falling off.

The way things have shaken out so far, combined with the new playoff format, could make this the most eventful East Conference race since at least 2015.

 

[mgarbowski]

FC Cincinnati dismiss head coach Alan Koch

Wow. Very short leash for an expansion coach. The statement indicates it's more than just results, but I'm surprised he could lose the clubhouse when he was successful with them in the USL and they have a fair amount of holdovers.

 

[adam]

I’m having a hard time understanding the results.

We dominate MTL away. Then they go to NJ and hand it to them.

CLB owns LAG with all their starters. Now LAG has to fly cross country home to play us on short rest.

TFC looked like one of the best teams in the league. Then ATL who’s had a slow start manhandles them at home.

I’m glad I don’t bet on these matches, that’s for sure.

 

[Keith Putnam]

How long do we think Brad Friedel keeps the Revs job?

 

[LionNYC]

I’m having a hard time understanding the results.

We dominate MTL away. Then the go to NJ and hand it to them.

CLB owns LAG with all their starters. Now LAG has to fly cross country home to play us on short rest.

TFC looked like one of the best teams in the league. Then ATL who’s had a slow start manhandles them at home.

I’m glad I don’t bet on these matches, that’s for sure.

That's so...

MLSy.

 

[Ulrich]

I’m having a hard time understanding the results.

We dominate MTL away. Then the go to NJ and hand it to them.

CLB owns LAG with all their starters. Now LAG has to fly cross country home to play us on short rest.

TFC looked like one of the best teams in the league. Then ATL who’s had a slow start manhandles them at home.

I’m glad I don’t bet on these matches, that’s for sure.

That NJ match we won was one for the ages.

 

[Sabo]

I’m having a hard time understanding the results.

We dominate MTL away. Then the go to NJ and hand it to them.

CLB owns LAG with all their starters. Now LAG has to fly cross country home to play us on short rest.

TFC looked like one of the best teams in the league. Then ATL who’s had a slow start manhandles them at home.

I’m glad I don’t bet on these matches, that’s for sure.

NJRB does not look like it will be an elite team this year. No other explanation for the MTL game.

CLB is around NJRB level. LAG roster is extremely screwed up. Super thin up top (they just added an attacker) after Ibra and Pontius and weak defense that overperformed the beginning of the season. They should have flown their older players directly to LA to rest for us.

TFC is a top team in the East with Altidore. ATL is a top team despite the lousy start playing at home.

ATL and NYCFC have recovered after weak starts, NJRB is staying weak.

 

[adam]

There's no statistical analysis to back this up. But I feel like all 3 teams tied for first are pretenders. Philly and Montreal won't keep up this pace and have shown real weakness versus the stronger clubs. DCU was the hot pick pre-season, but their home field has not been the advantage it was last year and we really exposed them a few games back. With 11-12 matches played. These 3 teams also have at least a game in hand on my favorites to be discussed below.

Columbus has 12 matches played (2-3 games in hand on the favorites) and they lose STEFFEN (take that autocorrect!) after our match vs them in a few weeks.

The real players here are Toronto, Atlanta and NYC. Each team with only 9-10 matches played. Toronto lost at Atlanta, but that's really nothing to be too ashamed of now that Atlanta has found their form. Just a win and a draw in their next 2 matches would put Toronto tied for 1st with the same games played. Their next 4 matches are: PHI, DCU, @RSL, SJ. This is their time to really make some ground and as NYC fans, we need to try and keep pace. I expect TFC to pass the current top 3 in the next 4 weeks of play. ATL dug themselves a bit deeper of a hole, but they have an easy schedule coming up to pick up points: ORL, @VAN, @NJ, @RSL, MIN, CHI. Only drawback there's a nice road stretch back and forth across the continent, even if against sub-par teams. This is a make it or break it time for ATL, and I'm not betting against them. And lastly is NYC. Similar position to ATL, a little worst off than TFC, but seem to have found their form in the last month and everyone is staring to get healthy. We have a match @LAG this weekend, but JDS is out for them and most their players are tired from a mid-week loss @CLB. After that @CHI, @CLB, CIN (who just fired their coach), PHI, SEA, POR. That's 3 away, then 4 home. If we can pull out 5+ points away and then actually start winning instead of drawing at home (where we are unbeaten), I can see us sharing the top of the table with TOR and maybe ATL by the end of June. With space between all 3 of those teams and the rest of the division.

 

[Fantazma]

How long do we think Brad Friedel keeps the Revs job?

i hope till end of 2019, we havent played them yet.

 

[mgarbowski]

There's no statistical analysis to back this up. But I feel like all 3 teams tied for first are pretenders. Philly and Montreal won't keep up this pace and have shown real weakness versus the stronger clubs. DCU was the hot pick pre-season, but their home field has not been the advantage it was last year and we really exposed them a few games back. With 11-12 matches played. These 3 teams also have at least a game in hand on my favorites to be discussed below.

I like your analysis of TFC, ATL, and NYC, but I'm not so ready to dismiss the current top 3. I've admittedly barely seen any Union games. I'd like to assume they'll doop doop their way down the table as they have done so many years past, but some teams just aren't good until they are. I need to watch them more.
I agree DC is not as good as many said they would be. I've long been on the train that says their late surge was built partly on schedule and adrenalin. But that they are not as good as the hype does not mean they are not good. I see them vying for at least a top 4 spot through the end of the season. But it will be a normal long slog for them this year.
Now, what the hell to make of the Impact. Piatti has been out forever. They have played only 3 H and 9A. They are boring AF to watch, with no spark or creativity. Yet here they are sitting with 1.67 PPG, Piatti will presumably come back eventually, and they have 14 home games remaining.

Advanced stats say DC and Montreal are overachieving and should slip. Philly has the best xG differential in the conference (both standard and H/A adjusted). Luckiest teams (measured by GD-xGD) are Toronto, Philly (proving you can be both lucky and good), and DC. But Toronto has been w/o Jozy so...
NYC has a record pretty close aligned with its xGD, and Atlanta has been a bit unlucky.

Finally, you want a dark horse, the advanced stats say to look at Chicago. They have the third best H/A-adjusted xGD in the East, and that's not accounting for the show they put on last night, and have been the most unlucky by these stats. Like the Union, they are another team I have not watched or paid much attention to, but I will definitely give them a fresh look soon.

 

[mgarbowski]

These 3 teams also have at least a game in hand on my favorites to be discussed below.

Forgot to mention, I think this is the other way around.

 

[adam]

Forgot to mention, I think this is the other way around.

Pay attention to what I meant, not what I said!

 

[Kenny]

I'm concerned about the LAG game. They just lost 2 in a row on the road. Will they lose a third, back at home, to a team coming from the East Coast? I'm concerned.

Having said that, I would hate to see Dome play for the draw. Fuck that 1-point nonsense, especially when we are on a roll now.

 

[Fantazma]

I'm concerned about the LAG game. They just lost 2 in a row on the road. Will they lose a third, back at home, to a team coming from the East Coast? I'm concerned.

Having said that, I would hate to see Dome play for the draw. Fuck that 1-point nonsense, especially when we are on a roll now.

i dont think he goes for the draw, however i dont see LAG losing three in a row.

 

[Sabo]

i dont think he goes for the draw, however i dont see LAG losing three in a row.

JDS injured. Alessandrini out. Ibra and Pontius playing their 3rd game in 8 days coming off a midweek in Columbus with no attackers of note on the bench. A defense that is mostly the same as the one that was one of the worst in MLS in 2018. The Galaxy had a great start, this game should be played mostly in the 50 yards in front of the Galaxy goal. This is a terrible matchup for LAG because NYCFC did not have the midweek game.

 

[Victors87]

i hope till end of 2019, we havent played them yet.

I think hes out now

 

[Fantazma]

I think hes out now

i know i read, the way they were playing felt like easy points. oh well.