MLS Week 31 - 2018

[adam]

Thinking about Decision Day | NYCFC vs. Philadelphia

• Odds that the game will matter for NYC - not high. NYC is in 3rd place, 6 points up and down from 2nd and 4th (though Columbus in 4th has a game in hand). NYC will almost certainly hold the tiebreaker over Columbus, so if it is 3 points or more ahead going into the final game, NYC can rest its players for the midweek playoff game.*
• Odds that the game will matter for Philly - very high. Philly is only 1 point short of Columbus with 4 to play and probably holds the tiebreaker. The two face off this weekend in Philadelphia and then have fairly even schedules over the last 3. Winner of this race gets a home playoff game - likely against the loser.
• Odds that the game will be repeated 3-4 days later in the Playoffs - very low. Either Philadelphia would have to fall behind another team into 6th, or NYC would have to fall behind Columbus (and/or Philly). Both would involve a team losing a 6 point lead.

* - Philly could also catch up to NYC. It is 7 points behind and would probably hold the tiebreaker. Basically either Philly or Columbus would have to make up 4 points by Decision Day.

Looking at the standings:

DCU needs to win both their matches in hand just to catch up with Montreal. I'm going to give the Habs the edge here, and I'd rather play them at home than DC if I had to choose.

If we keep the 3 seed, we can basically not travel till the 2nd Leg or the Conf Final, which is a month from the start of the playoffs. Hell, the team wouldn't have to get on a plane from the DC match on 10/21 till 11/29! I prefer this schedule to being a 2 seed the last couple seasons.

Rd 1 (vs MTL?):
1. Home Match - Wed 10/31 or Thurs 11/1
Rd 2 (vs NJ):
2. Leg 1 Home Match - Sun 11/4
3. Leg 2 drive to NJ - Sun 11/11
Rd 3 (vs ATL?):
4. Leg 1 Home Match - Sun 11/25
5. Leg 2 Fly to ATL - Thurs 11/29

And if we can stay above Dallas, SKC & LAFC in the west:
MLS Cup: Home Match - Sat 12/8

 

[adam]

lol....i get it with atlanta, but to help Houston?

We lost Philly as an option to get a double and open up additional CCL spot, as long as those odds are.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Thinking about Decision Day | NYCFC vs. Philadelphia

• Odds that the game will matter for NYC - not high. NYC is in 3rd place, 6 points up and down from 2nd and 4th (though Columbus in 4th has a game in hand). NYC will almost certainly hold the tiebreaker over Columbus, so if it is 3 points or more ahead going into the final game, NYC can rest its players for the midweek playoff game.*
• Odds that the game will matter for Philly - very high. Philly is only 1 point short of Columbus with 4 to play and probably holds the tiebreaker. The two face off this weekend in Philadelphia and then have fairly even schedules over the last 3. Winner of this race gets a home playoff game - likely against the loser.
• Odds that the game will be repeated 3-4 days later in the Playoffs - very low. Either Philadelphia would have to fall behind another team into 6th, or NYC would have to fall behind Columbus (and/or Philly). Both would involve a team losing a 6 point lead.

* - Philly could also catch up to NYC. It is 7 points behind and would probably hold the tiebreaker. Basically either Philly or Columbus would have to make up 4 points by Decision Day.

If that game against Philly did end up deciding 3rd vs 4th for us, do we care?

I'm not certain I care all that much over facing Philly instead of Montreal/DC. And I'm not really sure I have a preference of Atlanta or NJ in the following round.

Not sure what others here think, or ultimately, if there is a matchup Dome would prefer (though I'm sure he'll never publicly say it)

 

[mgarbowski]

If that game against Philly did end up deciding 3rd vs 4th for us, do we care?

I'm not certain I care all that much over facing Philly instead of Montreal/DC. And I'm not really sure I have a preference of Atlanta or NJ in the following round.

Not sure what others here think, or ultimately, if there is a matchup Dome would prefer (though I'm sure he'll never publicly say it)

I have preferences, but none strong enough to play the best 10 given the schedule that follows.

 

[Gotham Gator]

If we keep the 3 seed, we can basically not travel till the 2nd Leg or the Conf Final, which is a month from the start of the playoffs. Hell, the team wouldn't have to get on a plane from the DC match on 10/21 till 11/29! I prefer this schedule to being a 2 seed the last couple seasons.

Rd 1 (vs MTL?):
1. Home Match - Wed 10/31 or Thurs 11/1
Rd 2 (vs NJ):
2. Leg 1 Home Match - Sun 11/4
3. Leg 2 drive to NJ - Sun 11/11
Rd 3 (vs ATL?):
4. Leg 1 Home Match - Sun 11/25
5. Leg 2 Fly to ATL - Thurs 11/29

And if we can stay above Dallas, SKC & LAFC in the west:
MLS Cup: Home Match - Sat 12/8

I like the home games up front too, but not enough to take the 30-40% chance of getting knocked out in the first game.

 

[Shwafta]

I like the home games up front too, but not enough to take the 30-40% chance of getting knocked out in the first game.

Nah, I'm up for it. We play at YS which has been incredible for us, it'll give us that rush of blood and momentum for the next game, which would also be at home. I think it would be better, in all honesty. Starting a HRD two-leg affair at home is better.

 

[mgarbowski]

Our win over Chicago is looking a little more impressive.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1046155417502527489

 

[Shwafta]

Our win over Chicago is looking a little more impressive.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1046155417502527489

To be fair, we lost against them at home as well.

 

[Shwafta]

RB up 2-0 on ATL.

 

[adam]

RB up 2-0 on ATL.

Of course

 

[Shwafta]

Of course

yep.
However, this now puts RB on 62 and RB on 63.
Is this the first season where more than two teams went above 60? There was that season where RB and Dallas both got 60, but never two above 60?

So much for Toronto's "record-breaking season"

 

[Shwafta]

Now a penalty called on ATL.
But Guzan saved it.

 

[Ulrich]

So much for Toronto's "record-breaking season"

The Toronto season was amazing and will always be considered monumental with three trophies and highest pt total.

Being the first to do something in sports is infinitely harder than doing it afterwards. Everybody thought the 4min mile was impossible and would kill the person if they did it, but once broken it was bested again shortly after and ever since had been a less of an accomplishment for top runners and just an intermediate milestone along the way; even the top HS runners now regularly flirt with breaking 4min and some surpass it.

Toronto paved the way, and Atlanta refined the model with NJ along for the ride. Hell, we would’ve been there too if not for the skid under Dome.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Updated to reflect last night's match because I'm procrastinating at work.

Eastern Conference (clinched - Atlanta (first round bye), NJ, NYCFC; eliminated - Chicago) :

• NJ clinches a first round bye with a win against Atlanta or NYCFC losing at Minnesota
• NYCFC clinches a home playoff game with a win at Minnesota and a Columbus win against Philly
• Columbus clinches a playoff spot with a win against Philly and a DCU win against Montreal
• Orlando is eliminated with a Montreal win/draw at DCU
• Toronto is eliminated with a Montreal win at DCU and a loss/draw against New England

Western Conference (clinched - none; eliminated - Colorado, San Jose)

• FC Dallas clinches a playoff spot with a win/draw at Portland or a LA Galaxy loss/draw to Vancouver
• LAFC clinches a playoff spot with a win at Chicago or a draw and a LA Galaxy loss at Vancouver or a LA Galaxy/Vancouver draw
• SKC clinches a playoff spot with a win against RSL or a LA Galaxy/Vancouver draw
• Houston is eliminated with a loss to San Jose or a draw to San Jose and a Seattle win/draw against Colorado or a Portland win/draw against FC Dallas and a RSL win at SKC and a Seattle win against Colorado
• Minnesota is eliminated with a loss to NYCFC and a RSL win/draw at SKC and a Seattle win against Colorado or a draw against NYCFC and a RSL win at SKC and a Seattle win against Colorado

Not a whole lot of additional movement here.

RB clinched a first round bye and FC Dallas clinched a playoff spot, and that's it.

 

[ferrarinycfc]

I hope DC United and LA Galaxy make the playoffs, so I can continue to watch Rooney and Ibra.

They have been massive for both clubs.

 

[Shwafta]

Wow, that goal by seattle was amazing!