Race for 2020 CCL Qualification

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adam

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Guess we have to start somewhere. We’re finally moving up the table. Qualification this year is back to normal:

1. 1st place in the East
2. 1st place in the West
3. USOC winner
4. MLS Cup winner

If any doubles, OR CANADIANS*, next spot in the Shield standings gets it.

As always USOC is our best bet to get in. We’ll know our first opponent in a few weeks. And the East is a tight race. If we can continue our run, we might be able to qualify that way as well.

* thanks mgarbowski mgarbowski
 
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LionNYC

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Guess we have to start somewhere. We’re finally moving up the table. Qualification this year is back to normal:

1. 1st place in the East
2. 1st place in the West
3. USOC winner
4. MLS Cup winner

If any doubles next spot in the Shield standings gets it.

As always USOC is our best bet to get in. We’ll know our first opponent in a few weeks. And the East is a tight race. If we can continue our run, we might be able to qualify that way as well.
Would it be alright to amend the title for "Race for 2020 CCL Qualification" or "Race for 2020 CCL Spot"?

The title seems like it would be in the MLS or Other Football thread, while CCL Qualification is directly linked to NYCFC Team News and Rumors!
 

adam

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Would it be alright to amend the title for "Race for 2020 CCL Qualification" or "Race for 2020 CCL Spot"?

The title seems like it would be in the MLS or Other Football thread, while CCL Qualification is directly linked to NYCFC Team News and Rumors!
Sure. Whateves
 
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LionNYC

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Well - Coming back to this with 11 matches left to play in the regular season. We control our own destiny to finish 1st in the Eastern Conference and get a spot in the CCL.
 
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adam

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Well - Coming back to this with 11 matches left to play in the regular season. We control our own destiny to finish 1st in the Eastern Conference and get a spot in the CCL.
And we got the match at ATL out of the way and still control our own destiny. Of the top 5 teams in the East we only have 3 matches remaining.

Host ATL
Host NJ
@ PHI
 

moogoo

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our schedule isn't going to be easy for the rest of the season. even cinci next game won't be as easy the second time around. they've reinforced their defense and are playing better now than before.

columbus has always been our bogey team, revs are actually a decent team now, the quakes man mark (which will cause us a lot of trouble if we don't know how to deal with it like vs ATL), toronto is strong when they want to play, etc, etc. I think the easiest game in our remaining schedule is vancouver.

i think we are definitely capable of finishing top in the east. but dome being forced to rotate our squad due to congested schedule will play a big part in that. not having ITS available and fit has really put a hurt on our offense because Mitri just can't be relied upon for any type of consistency. While Isi has off games here and there, he's generally reliable as an offensive threat and has great service on free kicks.

As much as I would love to see us top of the east and qualifying for CCL.. i'd rather us focus our efforts to win the cup. even if that means finishing 2nd or 3rd in the conf to make sure our keys players are fit and healthy for the playoffs.
 

adam

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our schedule isn't going to be easy for the rest of the season. even cinci next game won't be as easy the second time around. they've reinforced their defense and are playing better now than before.

columbus has always been our bogey team, revs are actually a decent team now, the quakes man mark (which will cause us a lot of trouble if we don't know how to deal with it like vs ATL), toronto is strong when they want to play, etc, etc. I think the easiest game in our remaining schedule is vancouver.

i think we are definitely capable of finishing top in the east. but dome being forced to rotate our squad due to congested schedule will play a big part in that. not having ITS available and fit has really put a hurt on our offense because Mitri just can't be relied upon for any type of consistency. While Isi has off games here and there, he's generally reliable as an offensive threat and has great service on free kicks.

As much as I would love to see us top of the east and qualifying for CCL.. i'd rather us focus our efforts to win the cup. even if that means finishing 2nd or 3rd in the conf to make sure our keys players are fit and healthy for the playoffs.
I think you’re discounting how much an advantage the #1 seed is with the new playoff format. Regardless of CCL. So it’s the same goal.
 

moogoo

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I think you’re discounting how much an advantage the #1 seed is with the new playoff format. Regardless of CCL. So it’s the same goal.
The advantage is having a bye week and getting more rest, which may be good for a team with such a congested schedule. But sometimes extra rest makes a team rusty and teams coming off a win with that confidence and momentum actually do better. So there's that.

In the end, our guys haven't shown they are prepared to come out in every match, regardless of the opponent, and play like their lives depend on it. If they played every game like they played against the RB's at home last year with 9 players, we'd already be top of this conference and in contention for supporter's shield.
 
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adam

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That last part os
The advantage is having a bye week and getting more rest, which may be good for a team with such a congested schedule. But sometimes extra rest makes a team rusty and teams coming off a win with that confidence and momentum actually do better. So there's that.

In the end, our guys haven't shown they are prepared to come out in every match, regardless of the opponent, and play like their lives depend on it. If they played every game like they played against the RB's at home last year with 9 players, we'd already be top of this conference and in contention for supporter's shield.
That last part of your post is important. #1 seed doesn’t play away (till LAFC). We play much better at home, bye or not.

also odd how you argued to not chase CCL and rest players. Then in your next response complain that a bye week takes players off their game.
 

moogoo

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It wasn't a complaint. More of an acknowledgement that it can happen. Sometimes having the momentum from a game recently in your memory is better than an extra week of rest. But the opposite can be true too. That first game of the playoffs can be a devastating one physically and mentally and having that bye week would be a god send if we were still recovering from injuries.
 

adam

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So this is how I see the East Race/CCL Race shaping up:

I broke it down into 3 parts. Pre-International Break. International break. Post-International Break.

PRE-INTERNATIONAL BREAK

  • Looks like Philly has the easiest schedule over this 2 week period with no mid-week matches and 2 of 3 games at home.
  • Atlanta has the toughest schedule with 5 matches crammed into 18 days, with 3 of them away. Also, their 2 home matches are the Campeones Cup and USOC final. I can see them fielding a B team for the CC, but they will be bringing their best for the USOC final and chance at they only trophy they have not yet earned in their 2.5 years in the league.
  • DCU has the next hardest schedule with 3 of 4 away and 1 midweek match.
  • NYCFC and NJRB have pretty much the same schedule with 2 home and 2 away, 1 mid-week match, and 1 of those matches versus each other. I give the nod on toughness to NJRB who has to play at DCU and at NYCFC, while their home vs NER (tough match) and COL (easy). NYCFC hosts NJ & CLB (easy) and is away to CIN (easy) and VAN (easy). *I don't think any match is ever easy, but these teams are not in good form.

So my toughness scale, from hardest to easiest for this stretch is:

1. ATL
2. DCU
3. NJRB
4. NYCFC
5. PHI

Screenshot 2019-08-12 22.49.33.png


INTERNATIONAL BREAK:

Only NYCFC play during the break. They have 2 home matches versus NER and TOR. Both tough matchups, but very winnable at home. My only worry is we'll be short-handed if our players go off to play for the NTs.

Screenshot 2019-08-12 22.49.38.png


POST-INTERNATIONAL BREAK:

  • Once again ATL has the most condensed schedule with 5 matches in 16 days and 6 total in the last 3 weeks. 3 are home and 3 are away. They host CLB, SJ, and NER. 2 of those 3 are tough matchups, but ATL is pretty strong at home. Their 3 away are versus CIN, NYCFC & MTL. 1 difficult, 1 medium, and 1 easy. But no matter the difficulty of opponents, when the schedule gets congested, it's hard to field strong teams against them all. (We learned that the hard way in the beginning of the season). Lucky for us too they play us on the road after 4 matches in 12 games.
  • Philly has a very tough schedule with 5 matches, 3 of them being away. Worse their 2 home matches are against LAFC and NYCFC, 2 of the top teams in the league. They are away to NJRB, SJ, and CLB; 2 of those are very strong as well. This may be the toughest stretch of any of the teams on the list.
  • DCU is the only team with 4 matches and no mid-week matchups. They are home to Seattle and Cincy. Seattle represents a tough out as they fight for playoff positioning in the West. They are away to NJRB and POR. Seems that even with the lighter schedule 3 of their 4 matches are real tough matchups.
  • NJRB plays 5 matches with 1 mid-week game. 3 away and 2 are home. Their 2 home matches are versus PHI & DCU, both teams towards the top of the East fighting them for playoff positioning. Their 3 away matches includes a trip to the Pacific Northwest to play Seattle and Portland (one of those a mid-week match). They end away to Montreal who is battling for a playoff spot. I don't see 1 match on their schedule I would feel confidant about 3 points.
  • NYCFC also has 5 matches with 1 mid-week match. And also has 2 home and 3 away. Their home matches are against ATL and SJ, both very tough teams. Their away matches are versus Dallas (7th in West), NER (very hot), and PHI (currently top in the East). None of these are easy matches and should really test the team down the stretch.

So my toughness scale, from hardest to easiest for this stretch is:

1. ATL
2. PHI
3. NJRB
4. NYCFC
5. DCU


Screenshot 2019-08-12 22.49.43.png
 

adam

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So this is how I see the East Race/CCL Race shaping up:

I broke it down into 3 parts. Pre-International Break. International break. Post-International Break.

PRE-INTERNATIONAL BREAK

  • Looks like Philly has the easiest schedule over this 2 week period with no mid-week matches and 2 of 3 games at home.
  • Atlanta has the toughest schedule with 5 matches crammed into 18 days, with 3 of them away. Also, their 2 home matches are the Campeones Cup and USOC final. I can see them fielding a B team for the CC, but they will be bringing their best for the USOC final and chance at they only trophy they have not yet earned in their 2.5 years in the league.
  • DCU has the next hardest schedule with 3 of 4 away and 1 midweek match.
  • NYCFC and NJRB have pretty much the same schedule with 2 home and 2 away, 1 mid-week match, and 1 of those matches versus each other. I give the nod on toughness to NJRB who has to play at DCU and at NYCFC, while their home vs NER (tough match) and COL (easy). NYCFC hosts NJ & CLB (easy) and is away to CIN (easy) and VAN (easy). *I don't think any match is ever easy, but these teams are not in good form.

So my toughness scale, from hardest to easiest for this stretch is:

1. ATL
2. DCU
3. NJRB
4. NYCFC
5. PHI

View attachment 10111


INTERNATIONAL BREAK:

Only NYCFC play during the break. They have 2 home matches versus NER and TOR. Both tough matchups, but very winnable at home. My only worry is we'll be short-handed if our players go off to play for the NTs.

View attachment 10112


POST-INTERNATIONAL BREAK:

  • Once again ATL has the most condensed schedule with 5 matches in 16 days and 6 total in the last 3 weeks. 3 are home and 3 are away. They host CLB, SJ, and NER. 2 of those 3 are tough matchups, but ATL is pretty strong at home. Their 3 away are versus CIN, NYCFC & MTL. 1 difficult, 1 medium, and 1 easy. But no matter the difficulty of opponents, when the schedule gets congested, it's hard to field strong teams against them all. (We learned that the hard way in the beginning of the season). Lucky for us too they play us on the road after 4 matches in 12 games.
  • Philly has a very tough schedule with 5 matches, 3 of them being away. Worse their 2 home matches are against LAFC and NYCFC, 2 of the top teams in the league. They are away to NJRB, SJ, and CLB; 2 of those are very strong as well. This may be the toughest stretch of any of the teams on the list.
  • DCU is the only team with 4 matches and no mid-week matchups. They are home to Seattle and Cincy. Seattle represents a tough out as they fight for playoff positioning in the West. They are away to NJRB and POR. Seems that even with the lighter schedule 3 of their 4 matches are real tough matchups.
  • NJRB plays 5 matches with 1 mid-week game. 3 away and 2 are home. Their 2 home matches are versus PHI & DCU, both teams towards the top of the East fighting them for playoff positioning. Their 3 away matches includes a trip to the Pacific Northwest to play Seattle and Portland (one of those a mid-week match). They end away to Montreal who is battling for a playoff spot. I don't see 1 match on their schedule I would feel confidant about 3 points.
  • NYCFC also has 5 matches with 1 mid-week match. And also has 2 home and 3 away. Their home matches are against ATL and SJ, both very tough teams. Their away matches are versus Dallas (7th in West), NER (very hot), and PHI (currently top in the East). None of these are easy matches and should really test the team down the stretch.

So my toughness scale, from hardest to easiest for this stretch is:

1. ATL
2. PHI
3. NJRB
4. NYCFC
5. DCU


View attachment 10113
Just completed Phase 1 of my 3 part breakdown. How did the teams fare?

1. ATL 2-1-0. (And won USOC & CC). Big surprise was the win in Portland.
2. DCU 1-3-0. Wow. Basically eliminated themselves from the 1st place conversation with this stretch. Now they have to play their asses off for a home match.
3. NJRB 1-2-1. They are also out of the 1st place race.
4. NYCFC 4-0-0 (+7GD). Things couldn’t have gone any better (injuries & suspensions aside). Became the favorite over this stretch and still have games in hand at home over Intl break when no other teams from this group play.
5. PHI 2-1-0. They kept pace with ATL. Big test is their 3 away games in 9 days coming up in Phase 3.
 
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Shwafta

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Just completed Phase 1 of my 3 part breakdown. How did the teams fare?

1. ATL 2-1-0. (And won USOC & CC). Big surprise was the win in Portland.
2. DCU 0-4-0. Wow. Basically eliminated themselves from the 1st place conversation with this stretch. Now they have to play their asses off for a home match.
3. NJRB 1-2-1. They are also out of the 1st place race.
4. NYCFC 4-0-0 (+7GD). Things couldn’t have gone any better (injuries & suspensions aside). Became the favorite over this stretch and still have games in hand at home over Intl break when no other teams from this group play.
5. PHI 2-1-0. They kept pace with ATL. Big test is their 3 away games in 9 days coming up in Phase 3.
What about DC's win over montreal?
 
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FredMertz

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Just completed Phase 1 of my 3 part breakdown. How did the teams fare?

1. ATL 2-1-0. (And won USOC & CC). Big surprise was the win in Portland.
2. DCU 1-3-0. Wow. Basically eliminated themselves from the 1st place conversation with this stretch. Now they have to play their asses off for a home match.
3. NJRB 1-2-1. They are also out of the 1st place race.
4. NYCFC 4-0-0 (+7GD). Things couldn’t have gone any better (injuries & suspensions aside). Became the favorite over this stretch and still have games in hand at home over Intl break when no other teams from this group play.
5. PHI 2-1-0. They kept pace with ATL. Big test is their 3 away games in 9 days coming up in Phase 3.
LAFC at home obviously huge — if they lose that, can imagine a scenario where NYC only needs 1 or 2 points against philly and ATL to clinch 1st place.
 

mgarbowski

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LAFC at home obviously huge — if they lose that, can imagine a scenario where NYC only needs 1 or 2 points against philly and ATL to clinch 1st place.
If Philly wins the Division with their remaining schedule I will be both impressed and shocked. Only 5 games left, compared to 6 for ATL and 7 for us. Philadelphia has only 2 home games left against the 2 best road teams in the league (LAFC and NYC), and visit solid home teams RB and SJ, plus Columbus. They could very well manage a couple of wins, but there are no near-certain wins in that set of games. Maybe they shock and beat LAFC, but more likely let's say maybe a draw there, a win in Columbus and draws in the other 2 road games. That's 6 (57 total) points going into Decision Day, 60 max at season end, and frankly somewhat optimistic.
Meanwhile Atlanta has 4 extremely likely wins. Atlanta, a great home team, gets to host Columbus, SJ and New England, none of whom are great road teams (though the Revs improved a bit since Arena took over), and are Away to Cincinnati, NYC and the Impact. That's 4 very likely wins at least. Then let's say we beat them (not a given but quite likely chance) and they draw the Impact. That's 13 points and 61 total at season end. Their decision day game is home to the Revs and I already gave ATL that win.
That has us aiming for 62 points. It has to start with winning all the home games, including Atlanta. That is 62 points right away, but it does require beating Atlanta and maintaining a 7-game win streak. All else the same, a draw against Atlanta drops us to 60 and Atlanta up to 62, which requires winning a remaining road game to overcome that. Dallas and the Union are both excellent, above 2 PPG at home. New England is 1.60 including the pre-Arena days.
My bottom line is if NYCFC wins out at home including Atlanta, then the rest probably takes care of itself. Alternatively any 4 wins as long as 1 is Atlanta does it. Disclaimer: no guarantees, etc., etc, but these are reasonable possibilities. If the Union beat LAFC or Atlanta drops points at Home or in Cincinnati, then everything changes, for worse or better.

By the way, all of the above is why I was rooting for a Union win last night moreso than even a draw.
 
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adam

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So this is how I see the East Race/CCL Race shaping up:

I broke it down into 3 parts. Pre-International Break. International break. Post-International Break.

PRE-INTERNATIONAL BREAK

  • Looks like Philly has the easiest schedule over this 2 week period with no mid-week matches and 2 of 3 games at home.
  • Atlanta has the toughest schedule with 5 matches crammed into 18 days, with 3 of them away. Also, their 2 home matches are the Campeones Cup and USOC final. I can see them fielding a B team for the CC, but they will be bringing their best for the USOC final and chance at they only trophy they have not yet earned in their 2.5 years in the league.
  • DCU has the next hardest schedule with 3 of 4 away and 1 midweek match.
  • NYCFC and NJRB have pretty much the same schedule with 2 home and 2 away, 1 mid-week match, and 1 of those matches versus each other. I give the nod on toughness to NJRB who has to play at DCU and at NYCFC, while their home vs NER (tough match) and COL (easy). NYCFC hosts NJ & CLB (easy) and is away to CIN (easy) and VAN (easy). *I don't think any match is ever easy, but these teams are not in good form.

So my toughness scale, from hardest to easiest for this stretch is:

1. ATL
2. DCU
3. NJRB
4. NYCFC
5. PHI

View attachment 10111


INTERNATIONAL BREAK:

Only NYCFC play during the break. They have 2 home matches versus NER and TOR. Both tough matchups, but very winnable at home. My only worry is we'll be short-handed if our players go off to play for the NTs.

View attachment 10112


POST-INTERNATIONAL BREAK:

  • Once again ATL has the most condensed schedule with 5 matches in 16 days and 6 total in the last 3 weeks. 3 are home and 3 are away. They host CLB, SJ, and NER. 2 of those 3 are tough matchups, but ATL is pretty strong at home. Their 3 away are versus CIN, NYCFC & MTL. 1 difficult, 1 medium, and 1 easy. But no matter the difficulty of opponents, when the schedule gets congested, it's hard to field strong teams against them all. (We learned that the hard way in the beginning of the season). Lucky for us too they play us on the road after 4 matches in 12 games.
  • Philly has a very tough schedule with 5 matches, 3 of them being away. Worse their 2 home matches are against LAFC and NYCFC, 2 of the top teams in the league. They are away to NJRB, SJ, and CLB; 2 of those are very strong as well. This may be the toughest stretch of any of the teams on the list.
  • DCU is the only team with 4 matches and no mid-week matchups. They are home to Seattle and Cincy. Seattle represents a tough out as they fight for playoff positioning in the West. They are away to NJRB and POR. Seems that even with the lighter schedule 3 of their 4 matches are real tough matchups.
  • NJRB plays 5 matches with 1 mid-week game. 3 away and 2 are home. Their 2 home matches are versus PHI & DCU, both teams towards the top of the East fighting them for playoff positioning. Their 3 away matches includes a trip to the Pacific Northwest to play Seattle and Portland (one of those a mid-week match). They end away to Montreal who is battling for a playoff spot. I don't see 1 match on their schedule I would feel confidant about 3 points.
  • NYCFC also has 5 matches with 1 mid-week match. And also has 2 home and 3 away. Their home matches are against ATL and SJ, both very tough teams. Their away matches are versus Dallas (7th in West), NER (very hot), and PHI (currently top in the East). None of these are easy matches and should really test the team down the stretch.

So my toughness scale, from hardest to easiest for this stretch is:

1. ATL
2. PHI
3. NJRB
4. NYCFC
5. DCU


View attachment 10113
Completed part 2 of the breakdown. As expected we were short handed for the international break. I was hoping for all 6 points, but we wound up with 4.

Since I started tracking:

NYC 5-0-1
ATL 2-1-0
PHI 2-1-0
NJ 1-2-1
DCU 1-3-0

Here we are in the final stretch. NYC has the lead for the CCL spot (that’s what this thread is about). NJ & DCU have been eliminated from contention. But with NYC playing PHI & ATL in the last few matches, anything can happen.

Also, if ATL manages to win, based on the best 2nd place teams in the west sitting 6 points back of NYC, 2nd place in East would also be 3rd in SS and get in.