Race for CCL Spot 2019
- Thread starter adam
- Start date
Nah, there's always some chance. It's not over until it's clear. Which it isn't yet.
Pour a cup of tea, drink it, and then read the leaves left at the bottom..... it’s over.
MLS HQ putting the champagne on ice for when Atlanta qualifies for the CCL.
Sorry for the delayed post. Between Rosh Hashana & my comp crashing Wednesday, it's been a bit hectic. Good news is I'm sending this from a shiny new Mac 
.
Last week's results:
WEDNESDAY 9/5
NE 1 @ NYC o
SATURDAY 9/8
DCU 1 @ NYC 1
COL 0 @ POR 2
That's it, for the first time this season, we're projected to finish behind NJ in the CCL race. Also, all teams now have a match in hand on us. Maybe we go on a crazy 5 match win streak to end the season? Does that even get us anywhere? I don't know. But the past week has been depressing as fuck. Here's this week's CCL Matchups (you won't see us again for a while, thank god):
SATURDAY 9/15:
ATL @ COL 3:30
CLB @ DAL 8:00
POR @ HOU 8:30
SUNDAY 9/16:
NJ @ DCU 1:00
Just root for everyone to lose. At least NJ and ATL are away, but that hasn't meant much these last couple of months. I'm so done till the playoffs. What hat should I wear
Midas Mulligan ?
.Last week's results:
WEDNESDAY 9/5
NE 1 @ NYC o
SATURDAY 9/8
DCU 1 @ NYC 1
COL 0 @ POR 2
That's it, for the first time this season, we're projected to finish behind NJ in the CCL race. Also, all teams now have a match in hand on us. Maybe we go on a crazy 5 match win streak to end the season? Does that even get us anywhere? I don't know. But the past week has been depressing as fuck. Here's this week's CCL Matchups (you won't see us again for a while, thank god):
SATURDAY 9/15:
ATL @ COL 3:30
CLB @ DAL 8:00
POR @ HOU 8:30
SUNDAY 9/16:
NJ @ DCU 1:00
Just root for everyone to lose. At least NJ and ATL are away, but that hasn't meant much these last couple of months. I'm so done till the playoffs. What hat should I wear
Midas Mulligan ?
Sorry for the delayed post. Between Rosh Hashana & my comp crashing Wednesday, it's been a bit hectic. Good news is I'm sending this from a shiny new Mac
Last week's results:
WEDNESDAY 9/5
NE 1 @ NYC o
SATURDAY 9/8
DCU 1 @ NYC 1
COL 0 @ POR 2
View attachment 9151
That's it, for the first time this season, we're projected to finish behind NJ in the CCL race. Also, all teams now have a match in hand on us. Maybe we go on a crazy 5 match win streak to end the season? Does that even get us anywhere? I don't know. But the past week has been depressing as fuck. Here's this week's CCL Matchups (you won't see us again for a while, thank god):
SATURDAY 9/15:
ATL @ COL 3:30
CLB @ DAL 8:00
POR @ HOU 8:30
SUNDAY 9/16:
NJ @ DCU 1:00
Just root for everyone to lose. At least NJ and ATL are away, but that hasn't meant much these last couple of months. I'm so done till the playoffs. What hat should I wear
C-C-L, Schmee-C-L. That ship sailed.
I look at your list of games and can't decide if I should root for Dallas, to help NYC remain in second place, or Columbus, to help a seemingly-unlikely but still possible MLS final be in Yankee Stadium.
First choice as always is a draw, but that aside I think I root for Columbus.
I think we probably end the bad streak, and finish ahead of Columbus even if they beat Dallas.
I'm also not distressed at finishing 4th (though 5th is probably disastrous).
If the club somehow makes it to MLS Cup final I want that damn home game.
Also, the ASA gang published the playoff odds tables
https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/asa-xgoals/
Click the tab under predictions.
They say NYCFC is 100% in the playoffs.
Odds of moving up total 4.3% (and nearly 0 for First place)
Third Place 70.2 %
Fourth 20.4 %
Below Fourth 5.1%
I'm pretty sure these are based on a projection that the team gets out of its funk, because their numbers show it has been unlucky the last 2 months. So if you think the bad streak continues, discount all the good numbers.
I look at your list of games and can't decide if I should root for Dallas, to help NYC remain in second place, or Columbus, to help a seemingly-unlikely but still possible MLS final be in Yankee Stadium.
First choice as always is a draw, but that aside I think I root for Columbus.
I think we probably end the bad streak, and finish ahead of Columbus even if they beat Dallas.
I'm also not distressed at finishing 4th (though 5th is probably disastrous).
If the club somehow makes it to MLS Cup final I want that damn home game.
Also, the ASA gang published the playoff odds tables
https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/asa-xgoals/
Click the tab under predictions.
They say NYCFC is 100% in the playoffs.
Odds of moving up total 4.3% (and nearly 0 for First place)
Third Place 70.2 %
Fourth 20.4 %
Below Fourth 5.1%
I'm pretty sure these are based on a projection that the team gets out of its funk, because their numbers show it has been unlucky the last 2 months. So if you think the bad streak continues, discount all the good numbers.
So pretty much three consecutive ATL wins.
If NYCFC doesn’t completely crap the bed (and Columbus doesn’t go on a tear) then we could be looking at a scenario where on “Decision Day” NYCFC is locked into the third spot and rests everybody knowing that they will have to play the knockout game several days later.
This could also help the Union either make the playoffs or get a better seed. Let’s see.
Finishing 2nd in CCL race is still a big deal, just in case one of the teams with a spot wins the cup.
It's still a bit early and up in the air who finishes first and second, but do we care about finishing 3rd vs 4th?
I guess it depends on matchups, but I'm not sure (at least at the moment), I see a big difference between playing Philly vs Montreal or DC. And I don't know if I'd rather play Atlanta or NJ in the second round.
Obviously, I want us to do as well as we possibly can, but I'm not sure finishing 3rd is terribly important (dropping down to 5th would be a nightmare though)
Scores and Standings after last week's matches:
SATURDAY 9/15:
ATL 3 @ COL 0
CLB 0 @ DAL 0
POR 1 @ HOU 4
SUNDAY 9/16:
NJ 3 @ DCU 3
NJ passed us on the Wins tiebreaker, though we're dead even on points. They also have a goal on us for the GD tiebreaker as well. Columbus, Portland & Dallas can all be eliminated next week, I'd go through the scenarios, but you're all smart enough to look at the max points and Atlanta's points and figure it out.
This week's matchups:
WEDNESDAY 9/19:
CLB @ POR 10:30
ATL @ SJ 11:00
SATURDAY 9/22:
TOR @ NJ 5:00
RSL @ ATL 7:00
COL @ CLB 7:30
NYC @ MTL 7:30
POR @ MIN 8:00
SUNDAY 9/23:
DAL @ VAN 7:00
Lots of matches this week. With a Portland & Atlanta win on Wednesday, both Portland and Columbus could be eliminated by the end of the night. Let's root for Toronto, because Fuck NJ, and the 2nd place is our goal now.* It's an important spot if Atlanta can get the double or SKC wins the cup as well. But of course that means NYC taking care of business, surely not a given these days. Especially on the road.
*for those dreamers out there, Atlanta losing both their matches and NYC wining would leave us only 3 points back with 4 matches to play.
SATURDAY 9/15:
ATL 3 @ COL 0
CLB 0 @ DAL 0
POR 1 @ HOU 4
SUNDAY 9/16:
NJ 3 @ DCU 3
NJ passed us on the Wins tiebreaker, though we're dead even on points. They also have a goal on us for the GD tiebreaker as well. Columbus, Portland & Dallas can all be eliminated next week, I'd go through the scenarios, but you're all smart enough to look at the max points and Atlanta's points and figure it out.
This week's matchups:
WEDNESDAY 9/19:
CLB @ POR 10:30
ATL @ SJ 11:00
SATURDAY 9/22:
TOR @ NJ 5:00
RSL @ ATL 7:00
COL @ CLB 7:30
NYC @ MTL 7:30
POR @ MIN 8:00
SUNDAY 9/23:
DAL @ VAN 7:00
Lots of matches this week. With a Portland & Atlanta win on Wednesday, both Portland and Columbus could be eliminated by the end of the night. Let's root for Toronto, because Fuck NJ, and the 2nd place is our goal now.* It's an important spot if Atlanta can get the double or SKC wins the cup as well. But of course that means NYC taking care of business, surely not a given these days. Especially on the road.
*for those dreamers out there, Atlanta losing both their matches and NYC wining would leave us only 3 points back with 4 matches to play.
Straight to my veins friend. I believe. Herrera is back.
So I went to sleep as soon as Wondo scored to make it 4-1. I turned off the TV with a smile on my face thinking Atlanta lost one, maybe they can lose again on Saturday. Then I wake up at 3am, probably because my stomach was all messed up from fasting to read what happened right after. No words. At least the Portland win helped us in the regular season. Anyway, here's the latest scores and standings:
WEDNESDAY 9/19:
CLB 2 @ POR 3
ATL 4 SJ 3*
SATURDAY 9/22:
TOR @ NJ 5:00
RSL @ ATL 7:00
COL @ CLB 7:30
NYC @ MTL 7:30
POR @ MIN 8:00
SUNDAY 9/23:
DAL @ VAN 7:00
*asterisk on account of bullshit
At one fell swoop of of the VAR; Portland, Columbus & Dallas were all eliminated last night from CCL contention. Technically Portland can tie Atlanta if Atlanta loses all 5 remaining matches and Portland wins all 5 remaining matches. But Portland would have to outscore its opponents by 45 goals over the next 5 matches to catch up on GD. I didn't check the record books, but I'm willing to wager no MLS team (or any modern pro soccer team on a top level) has ever gone 5-0-0 and won every one of those matches by 9 goals or more. So, for all intents and purposes Portland can no longer catch Atlanta. I sure hope Toronto's dumbass match versus Tigres last night didn't wear them out for Saturday's draw versus NJ. It seems like all the cards are stacked against us, at least we're almost in the playoffs and that's a brand new season.
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Okay, I think the plan is now...
- Beat New Jersey in this table.
- Root for an Atlanta (or Philadelphia) vs. SKC (or Houston) MLS Cup, should we not win MLS Cup.
So, I'm rooting for Atlanta to beat New Jersey.
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