2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

mgarbowski

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Last year the team had a horrible start, and we spent a fair amount of time here arguing over how badly it affected our playoff chances. The disagreement covered both how many points we would need to make the playoffs and how much better would we play when our summer transfers arrived. I was pessimist on both accounts. I had hope, but not expectations, and the numbers put me there. That’s enough history but if you want a refresher this is the main thread.

This year we had a bad, but so far somewhat less horrible start, and I’m starting the analytical fun earlier than I did last year. We are now at the 1/4 mark and that’s enough to start playing around. The same 2 issues predominate: what will be the playoff line and how well will we play and/or need to play going forward. I don’t yet have a position on either. For the record, I currently hope we will make the playoffs and think it is a reasonable possibility. I’m not yet ready to say it is likely or not. If forced to bet I would probably say against, because I hate to bet against a streak. Bit since I’m not really forced I’ll stick with “I need more data.” But here is where I think things stand.

The Playoff Line
Last year the magic points line was 49. Toronto finished 6th with that many points, with a bit of a cushion as 7th place Orlando had 44 points. In 2014 there were both fewer teams and fewer playoff teams, but the 6th place team in the East had 42 points and 7th place had 41. Go back further and the number bounces around quite a bit with all the changes MLS has undergone. Last season I projected the playoff line to be around 42-44 for much of the season, which turned out to be low despite being higher than many more optimistic folks here expected. Here is why:

Montreal won 7 of it last 11 getting 23 of 33 points.
New England won 8 of its last 13 getting 26 of 39 points.
Toronto won 6 of its last 11 for 18 of 33 points. That sounds so-so but it is more than 0.3 PPG better than it did in the first 23 games.
DC United slipped at the end, but started well enough it had no effect on the playoff line. Red Bulls and the Crew were also strong all season.

The point is that a particularly strong or weak late run by 2 teams on the bubble can have big effect on the 6th place playoff line and there is no way to predict that. The PPG projection, which simply takes the current 6th place team and projects its current points after 34 games, was projecting Montreal to finish 6th with 43 points as late as September 17 last year. Montreal finished with 51.

Simply based on last year I myself will assume the playoff line will be from 47-51 until we get at least closer to the halfway point.

For what it’s worth, the current PPG projection puts the playoff line at 38 points. I will be shocked if it stays that low, but if that’s where you prefer to make your line right now I won’t argue. Not yet.
Screen Shot 2016-05-01 at 8.01.52 PM.png

What We Need To Do
Here are various result scenarios for our last 25 games and the point totals. Everything is in W-L-T format followed by what that would be PPG and total points for the full season at the end:

14-6-5 1.88 57
13-6-6 1.80 55
12-9-4 1.60 50
11-8-6 1.56 49
11-6-8 1.64 51
10-8-7 1.48 47
9-9-7 1.36 44
9-11-5 1.28 42
8-11-6 1.20 40

You can play around by assuming fewer or more ties etc but you can see that we probably have to win at least 10 games plus a good number of ties to be in the playoff hunt. If we only tie 4 more times (and there is reason to think that might happen) we need 11-12 wins.

All Tied Up

Just adding up the current standings, the East has played to 30 ties so far. That does count any intraconference game twice, but use the same method for all of last year and the East played 66 ties. We are only about 25% into the season so we are way ahead of last year’s full season pace. Last year NYCFC had 7 ties all season, with only 4 after April. So expecting 7 for the rest of this season seems a lot. Also, when I looked at the end of season last year for the other East teams it seemed they had fewer ties as the year went on. I just eyeballed it so I could be wrong but that is how it looked. It might be that ties tend out come less frequently as the season progresses. It would take a lot more data digging to test that so it’s just a partly educated guess right now, but we have had a lot of ties so far and I would expect things to get more normal, both for us and the East as a whole. Fewer ties also means more points for winners which is one reason I also think the current PPG projection is low. We’ll have to wait and see.

I don't know if I'll update this weekly yet this early in the season. But feel free to discuss, argue, add other stats, charts, graphs, deathwatch counts, etc.
 
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Last year the team had a horrible start, and we spent a fair amount of time here arguing over how badly it affected our playoff chances. The disagreement covered both how many points we would need to make the playoffs and how much better would we play when our summer transfers arrived. I was pessimist on both accounts. I had hope, but not expectations, and the numbers put me there. That’s enough history but if you want a refresher this is the main thread.

This year we had a bad, but so far somewhat less horrible start, and I’m starting the analytical fun earlier than I did last year. We are now at the 1/4 mark and that’s enough to start playing around. The same 2 issues predominate: what will be the playoff line and how well will we play and/or need to play going forward. I don’t yet have a position on either. For the record, I currently hope we will make the playoffs and think it is a reasonable possibility. I’m not yet ready to say it is likely or not. If forced to bet I would probably say against, because I hate to bet against a streak. Bit since I’m not really forced I’ll stick with “I need more data.” But here is where I think things stand.

The Playoff Line
Last year the magic points line was 49. Toronto finished 6th with that many points, with a bit of a cushion as 7th place Orlando had 44 points. In 2014 there were both fewer teams and fewer playoff teams, but the 6th place team in the East had 42 points and 7th place had 41. Go back further and the number bounces around quite a bit with all the changes MLS has undergone. Last season I projected the playoff line to be around 42-44 for much of the season, which turned out to be low despite being higher than many more optimistic folks here expected. Here is why:

Montreal won 7 of it last 11 getting 23 of 33 points.
New England won 8 of its last 13 getting 26 of 39 points.
Toronto won 6 of its last 11 for 18 of 33 points. That sounds so-so but it is more than 0.3 PPG better than it did in the first 23 games.
DC United slipped at the end, but started well enough it had no effect on the playoff line. Red Bulls and the Crew were also strong all season.

The point is that a particularly strong or weak late run by 2 teams on the bubble can have big effect on the 6th place playoff line and there is no way to predict that. The PPG projection, which simply takes the current 6th place team and projects its current points after 34 games, was projecting Montreal to finish 6th with 43 points as late as September 17 last year. Montreal finished with 51.

Simply based on last year I myself will assume the playoff line will be from 47-51 until we get at least closer to the halfway point.

For what it’s worth, the current PPG projection puts the playoff line at 38 points. I will be shocked if it stays that low, but if that’s where you prefer to make your line right now I won’t argue. Not yet.
View attachment 4806

What We Need To Do
Here are various result scenarios for our last 25 games and the point totals. Everything is in W-L-T format followed by what that would be PPG and total points for the full season at the end:

14-6-5 1.88 57
13-6-6 1.80 55
12-9-4 1.60 50
11-8-6 1.56 49
11-6-8 1.64 51
10-8-7 1.48 47
9-9-7 1.36 44
9-11-5 1.28 42
8-11-6 1.20 40

You can play around by assuming fewer or more ties etc but you can see that we probably have to win at least 10 games plus a good number of ties to be in the playoff hunt. If we only tie 4 more times (and there is reason to think that might happen) we need 11-12 wins.

All Tied Up

Just adding up the current standings, the East has played to 30 ties so far. That does count any intraconference game twice, but use the same method for all of last year and the East played 66 ties. We are only about 25% into the season so we are way ahead of last year’s full season pace. Last year NYCFC had 7 ties all season, with only 4 after April. So expecting 7 for the rest of this season seems a lot. Also, when I looked at the end of season last year for the other East teams it seemed they had fewer ties as the year went on. I just eyeballed it so I could be wrong but that is how it looked. It might be that ties tend out come less frequently as the season progresses. It would take a lot more data digging to test that so it’s just a partly educated guess right now, but we have had a lot of ties so far and I would expect things to get more normal, both for us and the East as a whole. fewer ties also means more points for winners which is one reason I also think the current PPG projection is low. We’ll have to wait and see.

I don't know if I'll update this weekly yet this early in the season. But feel free to discuss, argue, add other stats, charts, graphs, deathwatch counts, etc.
I'd be really impressed if that was all written on your phone.
 
Happy to see this thread again this year! Although based on this thread I knew much sooner than the optimists that we were cooked.

I think philly will come back to earth, but I think DC and NE are legitimately worse that last year. New Jersey looks like their defense is really bad. And their plan of relying solely on bwp is going to bite them this year. Hopefully Toronto will fade as gio gets beat up throughout the year.

East seems to be bad this year, I think the line will be lower and we will be better. Hopefully that means playoffs
 
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Other than just looking at average points needed to make the playoffs for the past couple years (since the size of the league has changed), here's how I get to 49...

Basically, looked at actual number of league points over the past 4 seasons, and the percentage of those points won by the lowest playoff team - then applied the averages to this season.

Estimate of Points for Playoffs.png
 
Other than just looking at average points needed to make the playoffs for the past couple years (since the size of the league has changed), here's how I get to 49...

Basically, looked at actual number of league points over the past 4 seasons, and the percentage of those points won by the lowest playoff team - then applied the averages to this season.

View attachment 4807
This would have come in handy last year. ;)
 
Glad the thread is back.

As you pointed out, the most interesting trend so far this year is the high number of ties. Too many of those can kill a team, but luckily for us, everyone has a bunch. Heck New England has 7 in 10 games! Many more ties in the East than the West too. Even if there is regression to the mean, the high number of ties so far in the year has probably knocked a point off the playoff line - I will say now it is 48.

The other big trend is the topsy turvy nature of the season, with some pre-season favorites down and teams like Philly and Colorado up at the top.
 
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I’m starting the analytical fun earlier than I did last year.
Can just see in a few years you'll be starting this thread after match day 1. There will already be hysterics screaming our second match is must win. Good times to look forward to.

Thanks for bringing it back.
 
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i would expect columbus and the jersey boys to start climbing up and that will raise the playoff line although hopefully Philly, Orlando and DC start to drop down to counteract this
I wonder if Jersey will be as good as people think. Last year, they won a lot of games early with their high press game that seemed to take a lot of teams by surprise. They tailed off after the league caught up and they couldn't keep up the physical pace. The got worse in the off season losing their best defender.
 
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I wonder if Jersey will be as good as people think. Last year, they won a lot of games early with their high press game that seemed to take a lot of teams by surprise. They tailed off after the league caught up and they couldn't keep up the physical pace. The got worse in the off season losing their best defender.
I think they are better than their early poor start but basically middling overall.
 
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I wonder if Jersey will be as good as people think. Last year, they won a lot of games early with their high press game that seemed to take a lot of teams by surprise. They tailed off after the league caught up and they couldn't keep up the physical pace. The got worse in the off season losing their best defender.
I think last year was the outlier. However every pundit takes it to be the norm, which it isn't - it was simply a single season when every possible shot on goal went in and teams weren't used to the high press in the league. They'll be mid-table at best this year, and if BWP has an injury, it's all going in the toilet for them.
 
Discuss: Do NYCFC or DC United have a better shot at the playoffs?

"1. It'll take about 48 points to make the playoffs in the East
2. Each of the last two years only one MLS team has finished with a .500 or better road record. We'll be charitable & pretend NYCFC (1-2-0 through 3 road games) are that team in 2016, finishing 6-6-5 (23 points). That means they need 25 of a possible 51 home points.
3. Through six home games, NYCFC have taken just 7 of 18 points on offer.
4. Even with a best-case-scenario road performance, NYCFC would have to win six of their final 11 home games to make the playoffs. Currently they've won just once in their first six."

That's Matt Doyle's analysis, which on the math is in line with mine above where I said we need 11-12 wins, although more negative than I'm leaning now. Also in the article, Simon Borg says we make it because of Lampard and Nick Rosano signs on to Doyle's math.

Doyle also says "[P]eople don't seem to appreciate how disastrous this spring has been for NYCFC."
 
Discuss: Do NYCFC or DC United have a better shot at the playoffs?

"1. It'll take about 48 points to make the playoffs in the East
2. Each of the last two years only one MLS team has finished with a .500 or better road record. We'll be charitable & pretend NYCFC (1-2-0 through 3 road games) are that team in 2016, finishing 6-6-5 (23 points). That means they need 25 of a possible 51 home points.
3. Through six home games, NYCFC have taken just 7 of 18 points on offer.
4. Even with a best-case-scenario road performance, NYCFC would have to win six of their final 11 home games to make the playoffs. Currently they've won just once in their first six."

That's Matt Doyle's analysis, which on the math is in line with mine above where I said we need 11-12 wins, although more negative than I'm leaning now. Also in the article, Simon Borg says we make it because of Lampard and Nick Rosano signs on to Doyle's math.

Doyle also says "[P]eople don't seem to appreciate how disastrous this spring has been for NYCFC."
Looking at the schedule in preseason, it looked like the opening two months were crucial. We are going to have to get very good to overcome the shitty results we've been getting.

I disagree with their analysis though because I think we are better than our results have shown. So our luck should bounce the other way this season.
 
Looking at the schedule in preseason, it looked like the opening two months were crucial. We are going to have to get very good to overcome the shitty results we've been getting.

I disagree with their analysis though because I think we are better than our results have shown. So our luck should bounce the other way this season.
There are 4 ties this year where we should have taken 8 more points. Inches and bounces.
 
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Matt Doyle's math analysis above got me thinking more about our H/A situation. The MLS home advantage is considerable and trouble for us.

Since going to a 34 game schedule in 2011, just 22% of teams have won as many as 6 home away* games in a season. You can basically assume 4 teams will do it every year. 5 teams did it in 2012. Of the 21 teams to win 6 or more, 12 won exactly 6 and 9 exceeded that.
Unless the playoff line is lower than the expected high 40s, we need 12 or 13 wins overall. We are sitting on 2 wins with 11 home games and 14 away remaining. For us to get 5 wins in the remaining away games would put us in the top 4 road teams in MLS this year, and still means we have to win 5 or 6 of 11 at home to make the playoffs.
I agree with the belief that we are better than our record, but are we that good?

Our best 11 game home stretch ever is 5-3-3 from Game 11 against Chicago on May 15 last year (a draw) to the win against San Jose on September 19 in Game 30.
If we improve on that by one game, to go 6-2-3, that is 21 points from the remaining home games. Adding our current 10 brings us to 31.
To get another 17 and hit 48 we need to go 5-7-2 on the road, which, again, probably puts us in the top 4 road teams in MLS. The math gets much easier if we somehow win 7 or more road games, which happens 9% of the time, and would almost certainly make us one of the top 2 road teams in MLS this year..

Our next 3 games are on the road, and we better start winning.

* Fixed per Lasker Lasker
 
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Matt Doyle's math analysis above got me thinking more about our H/A situation. The MLS home advantage is considerable and trouble for us.

Since going to a 34 game schedule in 2011, just 22% of teams have won as many as 6 home games in a season. You can basically assume 4 teams will do it every year. 5 teams did it in 2012. Of the 21 teams to win 6 or more, 12 won exactly 6 and 9 exceeded that.
Unless the playoff line is lower than the expected high 40s, we need 12 or 13 wins overall. We are sitting on 2 wins with 11 home games and 14 away remaining. For us to get 5 wins in the remaining away games would put us in the top 4 road teams in MLS this year, and still means we have to win 5 or 6 of 11 at home to make the playoffs.
I agree with the belief that we are better than our record, but are we that good?

Our best 11 game home stretch ever is 5-3-3 from Game 11 against Chicago on May 15 last year (a draw) to the win against San Jose on September 19 in Game 30.
If we improve on that by one game, to go 6-2-3, that is 21 points from the remaining home games. Adding our current 10 brings us to 31.
To get another 17 and hit 48 we need to go 5-7-2 on the road, which, again, probably puts us in the top 4 road teams in MLS. The math gets much easier if we somehow win 7 or more road games, which happens 9% of the time, and would almost certainly make us one of the top 2 road teams in MLS this year..

Our next 3 games are on the road, and we better start winning.

Leicester City won the premier league in a league without parity. Math doesn't mean anything. 2+2 = MIX DISKERUD HAT TRICK FROM THE BENCH COMING ON IN THE 70' BECAUSE VIEIRA IS COACHING HIS FIRST PROFESSIONAL TEAM AND DOESN'T KNOW WHAT HE'S DOING!
 
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