Tracking the most likely scenarios in the East heading into decision day
With decision day here and quite a hectic, nail-biting day ahead of us, I decided to checkout, not all permutations, but most likely permutations and what that would mean for the eastern conference. Just because it's been occupying my mind the entire morning so far.
FiveThirtyEight
According to FiveThirtyEight, the most likely scenario is:
Scenario 1:
Montreal beats Orlando (46% chance)
NYCFC beats Philadelphia (57% chance)
Atlanta beat Cincinatti (42%... how is it this low? lol)
Nashville beat Red Bulls (36% chance)
NE
Nashville 56
NYCFC 53
Philly 53
Atlanta 51
Montreal 49
Orlando 48
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Red Bull 47
View attachment 11529
This scenario gives NYCFC a great chance against Montreal, a team that has never won at Yankee Stadium. Elsewhere, Orlando are on a freefall, so a Nashville win would be almost inevitable, and we'd play Nashville in Nashville. Not ideal.
Likely playoff exit: Semis vs Nashville (Hello darkness my old friend...)
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Scenario 2: Red Bulls win (32% chance)
There is one game in the east that, according to FiveThirtyEight, is within a five-point margin for victory. In other words, it's going to be a really close game. As such, it's worth exploring a Red bull win as well.
NE
NYCFC 53
Philly 53
Nashville 53
Atlanta 51
Red Bull 50
Montreal 49
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Orlando 48
View attachment 11530
This scenario, like the first scenario, gives NYCFC a great chance against Montreal, a team that has never won at Yankee Stadium. Elsewhere, we avoid Nashville away, and leave Philly vs RB on our side of the bracket. Both of those teams are beatable, though we are yet to beat Red Bull this season. (Fun Fact, Red Bulls have <1GA this season).
Likely playoff exit: Conference Final vs NE
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Scenario 3: Nashville / Red Bulls tie (31% chance)
NE
Nashville 54
NYCFC 53
Philly 53
Atlanta 51
Montreal 49
Red Bull 48
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Orlando 48
View attachment 11531
I think most of us can agree that this scenario is pretty bad for us. It does, however bring about a rematch of RB vs Nashville in Nashville, similar to what we had with Philly a few years ago.
Likely playoff exit: Semis vs NA/RB