NYCFC 2016 SALARY CAP ANALYSIS

[adam]

Ok, after all this talk about Mix and Poku, I decided to take a few minutes and play with the numbers given by the MLS in relation to our Cap.

First Here are the rules: http://pressbox.mlssoccer.com/content/roster-rules-and-regulations

Here is the MLS 2016 Salary: https://www.mlsplayers.org/images/May 15, 2016 Salary Information - By Club.pdf
(it was a bit of a chore to pull the info out of their pdf and transfer into a spreadsheet, if anyone wants my original spreadsheet to analyze themselves just PM me, happy to share)


The Basics:
2016 MLS Salary Cap is $3,660,000
DPs count as $457,500 vs the cap (Pirlo, Villa, Frank)
GA don't count vs the cap (Jack)
Discovery players can have $500,000 taken off their total CONTRACT (mix? and we don't know if they evenly amortized it or took it in one year)

Ok, here are the numbers for our entire roster:



It seems we have a $21,127,776.63 budget this season for all our players. However that's not the number that counts versus the Cap. See below:

Only the top 20 salaries count vs the cap, not including GA and with the DPs counting as $457,500 each.



Now we see our Cap number is actually $4,470,106.59. We also learn we are using $810,106.59 in GAM, TAM & Garber Bucks. We can also see who hurts or helps our cap the most in relation to our cap budget, but I'll leave that for the comments below.

I also thought we should break it down by positions to see how we're allocating our overall budget and cap space.

Here is our allocation % by position from a total budget perspective (note that I listed Iraola as a mid)



And here's our position allocation % based on the Cap:



I've tried my best to leave my options out of the raw data listed. Ok, let's talk about this.

 

[NYCFC_Dan]

RJ will be getting a raise. If he doesn't he'll play elsewhere for more since he deserves it. Our backline (besides him and Mata) are overpaid. It's criminal. I think that's our most glaring issue. We certainly invested a lot in those positions but have not reaped any rewards from it.

 

[mgarbowski]

I totally understand and appreciate your argument that GAM, TAM -- let's just call it all Garber bucks -- have to count against the cap, but it still seems not quite right that those do while excess DP money does not. I understand your reasoning. The Garber bucks are limited in ways that DP dollars are not, but DP slots are limited too and that should account for something. I just have no solutions to put a worthwhile $$ figure on it.

We also have extra international slots and that cost us something. International slots are worth a certain amount of Garber bucks. It's hard to figure out how much given MLS non-transparency but it is more than zero. I would also allocate it across all international players rather than just shove it all on the last ones acquired who seemed to be the reason we need the extra slots but really all of them are the cause.

Last adjustment I think necessary is we paid Garber bucks to draft Jack . Even though his GA salary is free the cost we paid in GB to get him should count against him, probably prorated over, what, 3 years maybe?

 

[sbrylski]

Two points:

1. That "special discovery player" rule only goes to transfer fees, by my reading of the rules. I don't think we paid Mix a transfer fee, so I don't think we are getting a discount. If we paid a $1 million transfer fee for someone on a two-year deal, the transfer fee would be amortized as a $500k cap hit each year, and further reduced to $250k each year if the player was our "special discovery player."

2. The CBA has a provision that allows the MLS front office to adjust any players budget charge at any time for any reason. In other words, this is great analysis, but always keep in the back of your mind that Mix might be on a reduced budget charge because MLS thought they should incentivize his move to the US, for example. At the end of the day, we just don't know for sure.

 

[adam]

I totally understand and appreciate your argument that GAM, TAM -- let's just call it all Garber bucks -- have to count against the cap, but it still seems not quite right that those do while excess DP money does not. I understand your reasoning. The Garber bucks are limited in ways that DP dollars are not, but DP slots are limited too and that should account for something. I just have no solutions to put a worthwhile $$ figure on it.

We also have extra international slots and that cost us something. International slots are worth a certain amount of Garber bucks. It's hard to figure out how much given MLS non-transparency but it is more than zero. I would also allocate it across all international players rather than just shove it all on the last ones acquired who seemed to be the reason we need the extra slots but really all of them are the cause.

Last adjustment I think necessary is we paid Garber bucks to draft Jack . Even though his GA salary is free the cost we paid in GB to get him should count against him, probably prorated over, what, 3 years maybe?

I see your pint on DPs, but for our purposes of understanding where the club is allocating their funds, we have to just view a DP as a $457,500 player and address their cost to the club in the overall budget (I'd love to look at other teams and see how high/low thier budgets are in comparison outside of the cap). If they are paying the DP $500,000 or $5,000,000 its counted the same vs the cap and doesn't require additional GBs either.

With regard to paying for international slots and GAs, I guess we should view the GBs I've found (difference between cap budget and 2016 cap) as a minimum. I get that we may be paying more then what's listed because of those GB requirements for those types of players. But we don't have the information to know how much, so why guess? Moreover, we should just figure they cost more for the team in terms of GBs, but since GBs don't count against the cap, it's irrelevant for our purposes. But they are a more costly asset to the club (and GBs are theoretically limited, or are they?) then an American and we should note that when evaluating talent vs cap hit.

You're probably better at numbers then I am. If you want the list in Excel to play around with let me know.

 

[mgarbowski]

I see your pint on DPs, but for our purposes of understanding where the club is allocating their funds, we have to just view a DP as a $457,500 player and address their cost to the club in the overall budget (I'd love to look at other teams and see how high/low thier budgets are in comparison outside of the cap). If they are paying the DP $500,000 or $5,000,000 its counted the same vs the cap and doesn't require additional GBs either.

With regard to paying for international slots and GAs, I guess we should view the GBs I've found (difference between cap budget and 2016 cap) as a minimum. I get that we may be paying more then what's listed because of those GB requirements for those types of players. But we don't have the information to know how much, so why guess? Moreover, we should just figure they cost more for the team in terms of GBs, but since GBs don't count against the cap, it's irrelevant for our purposes. But they are a more costly asset to the club (and GBs are theoretically limited, or are they?) then an American and we should note that when evaluating talent vs cap hit.

You're probably better at numbers then I am. If you want the list in Excel to play around with let me know.

Might take that offer, but later in the week.

 

[adam]

Two points:

1. That "special discovery player" rule only goes to transfer fees, by my reading of the rules. I don't think we paid Mix a transfer fee, so I don't think we are getting a discount. If we paid a $1 million transfer fee for someone on a two-year deal, the transfer fee would be amortized as a $500k cap hit each year, and further reduced to $250k each year if the player was our "special discovery player."

2. The CBA has a provision that allows the MLS front office to adjust any players budget charge at any time for any reason. In other words, this is great analysis, but always keep in the back of your mind that Mix might be on a reduced budget charge because MLS thought they should incentivize his move to the US, for example. At the end of the day, we just don't know for sure.

1. Thanks for interpreting. Guess Mix is $760k vs the cap.

2. Didn't know that. Kind of ruins the whole strategy of a cap is there is a deus ex machina waiting in the wings. But I guess we just have to ignore the man behind the curtain while working all this out.

 

[sbrylski]

2. Didn't know that. Kind of ruins the whole strategy of a cap is there is a deus ex machina waiting in the wings. But I guess we just have to ignore the man behind the curtain while working all this out.

On the plus side, it means that even if it looks like we are up against the cap, we could always hope to the the LA treatment.

Let's say the MLS office prioritizes getting Guzan in the league for marketing purposes. They approach him, and he's willing to come to MLS, but only New York. New Jersey has Robles so they say pass. We have three DPs but say we'll pay him if you bend the rules for us.

Suddenly, Guzan to NYCFC on a $2 million deal that mysteriously fits under the cap for some reason because of a backdoor deal that lowers his pre-allocation base hit to $1 million.

It's MLS, it could happen.

 

[LionNYC]

Josh Saunders is not worth nearly three times the price of Eirik Johansen. I don't know why we gave that bald headed blunder a pay raise this season.

RJ deserves more money and a USMNT call up to training camp.

Mendoza does not deserve 200K+

 

[sbrylski]

Josh Saunders is not worth nearly three times the price of Eirik Johansen. I don't know why we gave that bald headed blunder a pay raise this season.

RJ deserves more money and a USMNT call up to training camp.

Mendoza does not deserve 200K+

Mendoza is a loan and will be gone next year. Youre right, at that price that's a very good thing.

Allen will definitely get a raise next year. Saunders will probably be around, hopefully as a backup. I bet Johansen is axed - if he cant beat out Saunders, we should not be wasting an international spot on him.

 

[adam]

Mendoza is a loan and will be gone next year. Youre right, at that price that's a very good thing.

Allen will definitely get a raise next year. Saunders will probably be around, hopefully as a backup. I bet Johansen is axed - if he cant beat out Saunders, we should not be wasting an international spot on him.

I really wish they gave us full contract details so I could project our cap a few years out.

 

[Ulrich]

On the plus side, it means that even if it looks like we are up against the cap, we could always hope to the the LA treatment.

Let's say the MLS office prioritizes getting Guzan in the league for marketing purposes. They approach him, and he's willing to come to MLS, but only New York. New Jersey has Robles so they say pass. We have three DPs but say we'll pay him if you bend the rules for us.

Suddenly, Guzan to NYCFC on a $2 million deal that mysteriously fits under the cap for some reason because of a backdoor deal that lowers his pre-allocation base hit to $1 million.

It's MLS, it could happen.

If we get Guzan, and no injury bug hits us the remainder of the year, we win the Cup. A keeper of his caliber makes up for mistakingly playing Hernandez in front of him.

 

[adam]

So now that we have this easy to read spreadsheet of our salary budget and the cap to play with, I thought I would plug in what happens if we do move Mix & Poku. Don't forget 2 more salaries (Lurch & Rawls - PS how does Rawls earn more then Lurch???) have to slide into the top 20. I also factored in the $500k in GAM we'd get from Poku's sale. I didnt factor in GAM from Mix, since the details are unknown. You can see that we're almost in compliance with the cap after these moves, but if we choose to use the GAM we've already been using this season, added with the Poku GAM; we now have a little over $1.2mm to spend on a new player/players. Also, this would go up by $60k per player because our keepers salaries would be pushed out of the top 20.

EDIT: just realized the GAM would be pro-rated this season. So $500k in GAM x 2
= $1mm. We could sign a $1.7mm player or players for the remaining half of the season if we use up all the Poku GAM and spend the same we've been spending.

 

[Angela Miller]

I think there's something wrong with this info. It's been a fact all over the place that Andrea signed for 2.5 million. Not the almost 6 shown here!

 

[adam]

Oh, and MLS players currently earning around $1.2mm in MLS if we're trading Mix for another player and using all the space we have been using already + Poku GAM.

Gilberto Junior - CHI $1,145,000
Fredrico Higuain - CLB $1,175,000
Kevin Doyle - COL $1,120,000
Kei Kamara - NE $1,000,000
Liam Ridgewell - POR $1,250,000
Emeghara Innocent - SJ $1,300,000
Pedro Morales - VAN $1,258,900

Interesting list.

 

[Kjbert]

What if it's Martin DeMechellis

 

[adam]

What if it's Martin DeMechellis

He's currently earning 3.4mm pounds per annum. We don't have room as a non-DP unless he takes a significant pay cut to come here.

 

[Kjbert]

He's currently earning 3.4mm pounds per annum. We don't have room as a non-DP unless he takes a significant pay cut to come here.

I thought he was let go by MCFC?

 

[adam]

I thought he was let go by MCFC?

Whoops, my bad. Not really focusing on PL last few weeks. Could be great fit for what we need.

 

[LionNYC]

Oh, and MLS players currently earning around $1.2mm in MLS if we're trading Mix for another player and using all the space we have been using already + Poku GAM.

Gilberto Junior - CHI $1,145,000
Fredrico Higuain - CLB $1,175,000
Kevin Doyle - COL $1,120,000
Kei Kamara - NE $1,000,000
Liam Ridgewell - POR $1,250,000
Emeghara Innocent - SJ $1,300,000
Pedro Morales - VAN $1,258,900

Interesting list.

https://twitter.com/x/status/746756554762780672