NYCFC 2021 Season Discussion

[Gotham Gator]

I noted we didn't have a thread devoted to the season as it progresses - to go over where we stand, how we are playing and what's coming up.

mgarbowski used to do a terrific job on these threads each year, but he retired from that noble, if time consuming undertaking.

Of course, his fine post on our schedule strength going forward (here) is a good example.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I will kick things off with this.

Our team this year is shaping up to be the strongest test case for 538's soccer power index. Despite our slow start in the standings, they freaking love us! Right now, we are 10th in the Supporters' Shield standings and 6th in the conference, 10 points behind leader New England (albeit with 2 games in hand). Yet, 538 has us as the favorites to win the MLS Cup.

Our SPI rating is a stellar 55.0, which is 4 full points ahead of 2nd place LAFC, which itself is 2.3 points above 3rd place New England. And we keep improving - a month ago, we were 2nd to win the Cup behind Seattle and were first in SPI with 52.2.

Below is the table from July 25 - right after last night's games.

 

[Fantazma]

I will kick things off with this.

Our team this year is shaping up to be the strongest test case for 538's soccer power index. Despite our slow start in the standings, they freaking love us! Right now, we are 10th in the Supporters' Shield standings and 6th in the conference, 10 points behind leader New England (albeit with 2 games in hand). Yet, 538 has us as the favorites to win the MLS Cup.

Our SPI rating is a stellar 55.0, which is 4 full points ahead of 2nd place LAFC, which itself is 2.3 points above 3rd place New England. And we keep improving - a month ago, we were 2nd to win the Cup behind Seattle and were first in SPI with 52.2.

Below is the table from July 25 - right after last night's games.

View attachment 11319

I'm still confused how our probability to make the playoffs is lower than New England's, but somehow our chances of winning the MLS cup are higher than them?

 

[SoupInNYC]

I'm still confused how our probability to make the playoffs is lower than New England's, but somehow our chances of winning the MLS cup are higher than them?

That's probably just a factor of they like our underlying numbers more, but New England is just currently ahead of us in the standings.

 

[Fantazma]

That's probably just a factor of they like our underlying numbers more, but New England is just currently ahead of us in the standings.

i dont know what it is because even in playoffs they have gone father than us last year.

 

[Gotham Gator]

That's probably just a factor of they like our underlying numbers more, but New England is just currently ahead of us in the standings.

Exactly. New England has a really big cushion above the playoff line. We don't. But if we both get there, the algorithm likes us to do better.

If I recall from reading about the 538 SPI, it's a combination of how each team performs on different advanced metrics, like Expected Goal Differential, Adjusted Goal Differential (actual goals adjusted for things like Red Cards and big leads), and something called Non-Shot Expected Goals. This is further mixed with how a team did the prior year adjusted by its spending on new players.

It seems that we get a big boost from doing well in the Advanced Metrics, plus having dropped a lot of cash on players (Talles Magno in particular).

 

[SoupInNYC]

Exactly. New England has a really big cushion above the playoff line. We don't. But if we both get there, the algorithm likes us to do better.

If I recall from reading about the 538 SPI, it's a combination of how each team performs on different advanced metrics, like Expected Goal Differential, Adjusted Goal Differential (actual goals adjusted for things like Red Cards and big leads), and something called Non-Shot Expected Goals. This is further mixed with how a team did the prior year adjusted by its spending on new players.

It seems that we get a big boost from doing well in the Advanced Metrics, plus having dropped a lot of cash on players (Talles Magno in particular).

Speaking of some advanced metrics...

• NYCFC is 2nd in MLS in xGF at 25.84 (SKC is first with 28.09 with one extra game played)
• NYCFC is 1st in MLS in xGA at 11.68 (DCU is second with 12.08 and has played one more game than NYCFC)
• NYCFC is 1st in MLS in xGD at 14.16 (Nashville is second with 11.83)

Ok, this next stat is insane to me:

• NYCFC has taken 227 shots on the year and has only allowed 114 shots to be taken. Holy shit.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Here is a link to the 538 MLS SPI.

Our current SPI (55.0) is less than LAFC had at the end of the 2019 Regular Season (60.3) and higher than Atlanta at the end of 2018 (52.4).

It would put us in 6th place in last year's English Championship (hello promotional playoffs!) and in between Schalke and Weder Bremen in last year's Bundesliga.

 

[canchon]

Here is a link to the 538 MLS SPI.

Our current SPI (55.0) is less than LAFC had at the end of the 2019 Regular Season (60.3) and higher than Atlanta at the end of 2018 (52.4).

It would put us in 6th place in last year's English Championship (hello promotional playoffs!) and in between Schalke and Weder Bremen in last year's Bundesliga.

Pumas has an SPI of 41. Roughly equivalent to Nashville or Minnesota. Leagues Cup here we come.

 

[mgarbowski]

I noted we didn't have a thread devoted to the season as it progresses - to go over where we stand, how we are playing and what's coming up.

mgarbowski used to do a terrific job on these threads each year, but he retired from that noble, if time consuming undertaking.

Of course, his fine post on our schedule strength going forward (here) is a good example.

Thanks for doing this. Specifically I retired not so much from creating the annual thread as the increasingly involved weekly updates I provided. But I guess I didn't want to create a thread and have to answer "are you starting those updates again" questions, but it's good to have a thread that can house these ongoing topics and posts. Maybe next year I'll even start it.

 

[mgarbowski]

i dont know what it is because even in playoffs they have gone father than us last year.

I don't think anyone believes there are enough playoff games to create a meaningful model to predict playoff success separately from games in general. For every Seattle who always seems to do well and and NYCFC who always does not, you have a dozen or so Crew, Atlanta, Toronto, and LAFC, who do good in some knockout competitions and poor in others year to year and tournament to tournament. The results curve tracks randomness pretty well. I'm very confident that the 538 playoff model is exactly the same as the regular season model, with the only difference being that the regular season model has to account for the fact that the Revs, Sounders, and a few other teams are currently ahead of us by meaningful margins. Even if we really are as good as our SPI indicates, we're unlikely to catch up. But come playoff time, nobody has a lead. You do have a limited number of byes and home advantage, but I guess the model thinks we're good enough to overcome that. But because the nature of the playoffs, still just a 17% chance of the Cup.

 

[Seth]

I don't think anyone believes there are enough playoff games to create a meaningful model to predict playoff success

I completely agree with this. Maybe if there was a better way to determine the season's champion. Perhaps something like a competition of 34 matches that lasted maybe six months or so. And the champion would be the one who had the most points at the end of the tournament.

Yeah, makes total sense!

*runs for cover*

 

[moogoo]

I completely agree with this. Maybe if there was a better way to determine the season's champion. Perhaps something like a competition of 34 matches that lasted maybe six months or so. And the champion would be the one who had the most points at the end of the tournament.

Yeah, makes total sense!

*runs for cover*

you're UNAMERICAN!

 

[mgarbowski]

you're UNAMERICAN!

It’s not as if he’s pro/rel.

 

[Seth]

It’s not as if he’s pro/rel.

*tiptoes by quietly, while innocently whistling*

 

[mgarbowski]

*tiptoes by quietly, while innocently whistling*

But if you're pro/rel and don't inject the topic into every conversation, are you really pro/rel?

 

[Gotham Gator]

But if you're pro/rel and don't inject the topic into every conversation, are you really pro/rel?

Silence = Violence

 

[mgarbowski]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420423305467777028

We are so much better on offensive set pieces this year than ever before.
Zelarayan free kicks aside, we are doing pretty well on set piece defense.

Vartughian has been here since - well years and Ronny says he has little to do with it. What's different? Possibilities:

• Ronny is being generous with praise and credit
• Ronny lets Rob do his thing and his predecessors interfered more.
• It took this long for the team to get it.
• Random chance.

I do not think it is personnel. Any other ideas? I don't really have a favorite, though I'm always prepared to accept chance as an explanation for streaks and changes of fortune.

 

[SoupInNYC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420423305467777028

We are so much better on offensive set pieces this year than ever before.
Zelarayan free kicks aside, we are doing pretty well on set pieces defense.

Vartughian has been here since - well years and Ronny says he has little to do with it. What's different? Possibilities:

• Ronny is being generous with praise and credit
• Ronny let's Rob do his thing and his predecessors interfered more.
• It took this long for the team to get it.
• Random chance.

I do not think it is personnel. Any other ideas? I don't really have a favorite, though I'm always prepared to accept chance as an explanation for streaks and changes of fortune.

One last idea/bullet point that maybe can be combined with the 3rd one above. Vartughian is starting to get it himself after being in this role for a bit. He's starting to figure things out from a tactics perspective and how to attack teams individually (Keaton said in a press conference that they develop a plan for each opponent on how to attack them via set pieces.

Also, to add in context with how great Rob has been this year, against Orlando, we had a corner kick play that freed up Maxi Moralez unmarked, at the edge of the 6, for a volley on goal (he sent it wide). 5 foot 3 Maxi Moralez. Incredible.

 

[moogoo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420423305467777028

We are so much better on offensive set pieces this year than ever before.
Zelarayan free kicks aside, we are doing pretty well on set pieces defense.

Vartughian has been here since - well years and Ronny says he has little to do with it. What's different? Possibilities:

• Ronny is being generous with praise and credit
• Ronny let's Rob do his thing and his predecessors interfered more.
• It took this long for the team to get it.
• Random chance.

I do not think it is personnel. Any other ideas? I don't really have a favorite, though I'm always prepared to accept chance as an explanation for streaks and changes of fortune.

another idea combines a few of your points. Through the years, rob has learned more from Viera then Dome (who i think was in charge of set pieces under pep?), and more recently, has been able to figure out how to design his own set plays and how to defend against teams better. Basically, everyone is learning. I also think on defense, we have more players aggressively attacking the ball than we have in the past. our only weakness still being our d-mids (morales in particular) still don't pressure a shot from outside the box fast and hard enough and LOVE to turn their backs at the first hint of a shot.

I agree we have definitely improved. Especially offensively.

One last idea/bullet point that maybe can be combined with the 3rd one above. Vartughian is starting to get it himself after being in this role for a bit. He's starting to figure things out from a tactics perspective and how to attack teams individually (Keaton said in a press conference that they develop a plan for each opponent on how to attack them via set pieces.

Also, to add in context with how great Rob has been this year, against Orlando, we had a corner kick play that freed up Maxi Moralez unmarked, at the edge of the 6, for a volley on goal (he sent it wide). 5 foot 3 Maxi Moralez. Incredible.

This corner seemed like an exact replica of a villa corner set play. the only difference is villa scored. here it is: