New York City FC vs. Orlando City SC Red Bulls
Sunday, January 23 1 PM ET
Sunday, January 23 1 PM ET
Preseason - January 23 - Red Bulls
- Thread starter LionNYC
- Start date
If he can give us his 2019 form, or something close to it, that would be very very nice.
I put the O/U at 12. He had 15 goals in 1728 minutes in 2019. He missed 8 games out of 30 before knee surgery. He had a finishing rate that is unlikely to be repeated. I'll be happy if we get 2000 minutes 12 goals and 4 assists.
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Do you mean wait for him to score a regular season goal before getting hyped up?
I’m happy that he started and scored. Even if it’s just a meaningless preseason game I’m sure it meant more than we know to him. That video last year choked me up. He’s worked his ass off to get back out there this year.
Well yes, I was being over dramatic. I think Heber is basically haunted by his injury knowingly or unknowingly until he can score again in a non-scrimmage real game scenario. I really don’t want to give him any expectations as a fan until he can score at least one. Hopefully a flood gate opens this year once he scores but really who knows if he will ever be more than a shell of the player he was in 2019.
I fear something may have gotten dropped here.
Heber had 15 goals and 4 assists in 18 starts and 1575 minutes in 2019. That’s a better rate than this past year’s Golden Boot winner.
In 2020, he had 1 goal and 2 assists in 11 starts and 893 minutes. As for this past season, it is likely not indicative of anything.
It’s probably safe to assume both 2019 and 2020 were anomalies on either end of the bell curve, with his baseline production somewhere in the middle. Given that he still didn’t play a full season between both those years together, a middle result is still a lot of goals, assuming he is healthy.
Of course, minutes matter here too. If Taty is still around at the start of the season, Heber is likely coming off the bench.
I wouldn't mind seeing Heber as one of the wingers if we want to get taty and heber on the field together. they have had good chemistry in the past.
Nothing dropped. The disparity in minutes played is because you used official numbers which is gold standard but I used ASA because ASA presents its data in a way that is most useful for manipulation and comparisons. But the most quirky thing about ASA is that it counts added time in players minute counts, so those totals never match official MLS figures. If you play a full game, then ASA credits you with anywhere from 93 to 99 minutes and maybe even higher. The upside is it better reflects actual minutes played, especially for late game subs. Officially if you enter a game at 89' and there were 4 added minutes, you played 1 minute. ASA credits you with 5. But it makes comparisons across different data sources more complicated.
Beyond that, I fully ignored both 2020 and 2021 in my analysis. I only based it on 2019, and for reasons I previously explained, I do not think he is likely to repeat that performance even without factoring in injury rehab risk. I'm playing percentages and likelihoods, so I could be wrong even if my analysis is correct, but I think it's quite likely that if he plays at least as much in 2022 as he did in 2019, his per 90 numbers will be lower. Plus I can't ignore how often he was hurt in 2019. Unless that changes it puts a strong cap on his potential. For me the best case for upside is the possibility that he will get fewer soft tissue knocks, which you sometimes (but not usually) see after a major rehab. Significantly more minutes could mean more goals. But I think 2019 was a career best type season and he's unlikely to score at that rate again. I hope I'm wrong.
Do we really think Heber has the skillset to play a winger?
I mean, perhaps in a pinch I would guess, but he's operated best for us centrally, and in a way that allows him to combine with his back to goal and runners coming off him, then finding spaces in the box.
His skillset has never been taking guys on 1v1, being one of the runners playing off a central striker, taking shots from distance, or sending in crosses.
Didn't he come to us as a winger?
According to transfermarkt https://www.transfermarkt.us/heber/leistungsdatendetails/spieler/150601
he has a pretty spectacular goal/assist output as a left winger, so I wouldn't be above trying that out.
Besides I am STILL of the opinion that we need Heber and Taty on the field together to see maximum advantage
I see that, but he's only played there (also according to Transfermarkt, haven't looked at the specific matches to see if it makes sense) twice since coming to NYCFC and those were before he tore his ACL.
Without understanding the system he played LW at prior to NYCFC and understanding Ronny's system and what he asks of his wingers, I don't really see how he fits for material minutes there.
