The Disconnect [Or Vital Link] Between Possession and Success

mgarbowski

mgarbowski

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I'm intrigued by the opening section in this week's MLS Armchair Analyst column, which discusses the evolving style of play both internationally and specifically in MLS.
http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/04/17/armchair-analyst-jermaine-jones-playmaker-and-more-week-7
It features this graphic:
MLS-Possession and position.png

Focusing on us, we are 1/20 in possession and 15/20 in results. Overall, the connection between possession is currently random at best.
I'm torn between a rant and just saying it's way too early to draw any conclusions, which the article itself acknowledges. So I'll just throw this out there for discussion.
 
mgarbowski said:
I'm intrigued by the opening section in this week's MLS Armchair Analyst column, which discusses the evolving style of play both internationally and specifically in MLS.
http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/04/17/armchair-analyst-jermaine-jones-playmaker-and-more-week-7
It features this graphic:
View attachment 4726

Focusing on us, we are 1/20 in possession and 15/20 in results. Overall, the connection between possession is currently random at best.
I'm torn between a rant and just saying it's way too early to draw any conclusions, which the article itself acknowledges. So I'll just throw this out there for discussion.
Click to expand...

we have close to 60% possession? what? i guess that makes sense in so far what weve seen in home games...but the finishing has been poor that s why the ranking is so low. being effective is what i always that matter since to me its results is what matters.....and this team is not finishing opportunities ( at times not even taking them since so many times i felt a shot would of been better than a pass in the final third)
 
mgarbowski said:
I'm intrigued by the opening section in this week's MLS Armchair Analyst column, which discusses the evolving style of play both internationally and specifically in MLS.
http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/04/17/armchair-analyst-jermaine-jones-playmaker-and-more-week-7
It features this graphic:


Focusing on us, we are 1/20 in possession and 15/20 in results. Overall, the connection between possession is currently random at best.
I'm torn between a rant and just saying it's way too early to draw any conclusions, which the article itself acknowledges. So I'll just throw this out there for discussion.
Click to expand...
I can't imagine any scenario where greater possession would be a bad thing, and in the long run it can only help. Our problems as I see it are not being able to have wings on the sides who can pass into the center for easy dinks into the net or on the other end getting caught behind a counter attack. Maintaining possession will be able to help out those other two issues though.
 
Seth said:
I can't imagine any scenario where greater possession would be a bad thing, and in the long run it can only help.
Click to expand...
I think it depends on the team and its capabilities. Leicester and Atletico Madrid both have <50% possession and I do not think would be improved by raising that number.
We have long possession streaks that start from the back, slowly build (often going back again) and end up with little to show for it. At home especially, we end up facing 8-10 guys inside the 18-yard box by the time we are in a position to think about shooting, and we apparently lack the skills to break that down. I don't think it's helping. OTOH it also seems that we are not especially good on fast-paced counters that let us attack with favorable numbers on the fly.

But I do think we have a system that was designed decades ago in Holland and perfected in Spain 10-20 years ago, and it was decided in Manchester 3-4 years ago that we would play this way, regardless of MLS conditions, or our roster, in 2016. And that just seems stupid.
 
mgarbowski said:
But I do think we have a system that was designed decades ago in Holland and perfected in Spain 10-20 years ago, and it was decided in Manchester 3-4 years ago that we would play this way, regardless of MLS conditions, or our roster, in 2016. And that just seems stupid.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that's troubling to me as well. When I see PV say things like this I get the orthodoxy creeps:

https://twitter.com/x/status/721519798128091136

Successful systems do not exist in a vacuum – they're successful because they mitigate the threats and exploit the weaknesses of the other systems in use at the time.
 
- it's way too early
- it's easy to stack possession numbers in Yankee stadium when you are losing and the other team is parked in your cramped space
- to my eyes our possession has been long on quantity, short on quality. The possession you want is building out of the back, maintaining the ball through midfield and sustained attack changing the point of attack as runs and opportunities occur, we don't do this.
For example, (from WhoScored) we had 57% possession against Chicago and the ball spent the least time in their defensive third. Same with New England, 63%, but only 24% of the action on offense
 
Well, there's the Guardiola Theory and there's the Mourinho Theory about possession, isn't there?

Guardiola style is: maximum possession, deny the other team the ball, make them chase you the whole time.
The Mourinho theory is, more possession is more opportunities for mistakes and the team which makes fewer mistakes wins.

Both of these theories have won leagues.

I imagine the most important thing about possession is that whatever amount of it your team has it has on its own terms; i.e. whether you are in or out of possession is a choice you've made and not one imposed upon you by the other team. You can control the game with or without the ball, but you need to be in control of the game.
 
Keith Putnam said:
Well, there's the Guardiola Theory and there's the Mourinho Theory about possession, isn't there?

Guardiola style is: maximum possession, deny the other team the ball, make them chase you the whole time.
The Mourinho theory is, more possession is more opportunities for mistakes and the team which makes fewer mistakes wins.

Both of these theories have won leagues.

I imagine the most important thing about possession is that whatever amount of it your team has it has on its own terms; i.e. whether you are in or out of possession is a choice you've made and not one imposed upon you by the other team. You can control the game with or without the ball, but you need to be in control of the game.
Click to expand...

ah yes the debate between the two schools of thought....the problem i see with the possession game here is that either players are not used to it and will have to learn to do it...but the thing is in MLS with salaray cap ( and expansion draft after this season) too many players may be lost and then you have to start over the following year.
 
Gotham Gator said:
Some of the theory around holding possession is that it prevents the other team from scoring. There has been some truth to that in our games, but that only takes you halfway to achieving a result.
Click to expand...

See WC 2010, Spain. There were actually complaints that Spain was boring because they held the ball so much and won a ton of games 1-0.

The problems with NYCFC trying to be Spain 2010 are that NYCFC doesn't have the skill either to 1) hold the ball for that long period of time or 2) break the other team down in the final third. So either they lose the ball and boom the other team is off on a counter.

A lot of teams win in MLS by having a good counter/finisher and solid team defense. Red Bulls also won a SS last year by doing a high press system and forcing teams into mistakes.
 
Keith Putnam said:
Well, there's the Guardiola Theory and there's the Mourinho Theory about possession, isn't there?

Guardiola style is: maximum possession, deny the other team the ball, make them chase you the whole time.
The Mourinho theory is, more possession is more opportunities for mistakes and the team which makes fewer mistakes wins.

Both of these theories have won leagues.

I imagine the most important thing about possession is that whatever amount of it your team has it has on its own terms; i.e. whether you are in or out of possession is a choice you've made and not one imposed upon you by the other team. You can control the game with or without the ball, but you need to be in control of the game.
Click to expand...

In the most elite leagues in the world I'm not sure one approach is better than the other. In the MLS I think the question is much simpler: which system is less dependent on talent? A possession system requires talented players in every spot on the field in order to limit mistakes as you point out. With the cap and the current level of the league that's not possible so I think that's why you see something closer to the Mourinho approach from most MLS teams.

The interesting thing is sometime in the preseason PV said Mourinho is the manager who he admires most yet he seems to be trying to play more of a Wegner type system at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised to see PV play a different system if given different players but your essentially boxed into playing possession when your 2 star players are Pirlo and Villa. He has clearly proven so far that he is more of a fit the system to the players you have then a force the players into your system type of coach.
 
Ulrich said:
Possession is key, as you cannot score if you don't have the ball, but the amount of possession needed to score is debatable depending on tactics.

There were times last game when I felt like the team being scored upon in this video:
Click to expand...
That's an awesome video, but those kids had zero possession, so what's your point?o_O
 
mgarbowski said:
That's an awesome video, but those kids had zero possession, so what's your point?o_O
Click to expand...
If we could turn our league-leading possession into solid shots, we could end up like the dynamic duo in the video.... However there were times last game when CLB had possession and carved us up from front to back before scoring, just like what happened to those poor little kids.

And off-topic if anybody cares, TMac runs like a penguin.
 
Last edited:
Ulrich said:
If we could turn our league-leading possession into solid shots, we could end up like the dynamic duo in the video.... However there were time last game when CLB had possession and carved us up from front to back before scoring, just like what happened to those poor little kids.

And off-topic if anybody cares, TMac runs like a penguin.
Click to expand...
Got it.
PS: It was great how they added extra goalies above the 3 they beat for the first goal. It's sort of like what Tom in Fairfield CT suggested about playing Lurch next to Saunders a day or two ago....
 
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