The Next Great Soccer War

[KevinJRogers]

This piece brings up some interesting points, although to be honest I'm not sure whether MLS and the USL are rivals as much as complementary. But given the history of the game in the United States, there's probably a lot to talk about.

MLS vs USL and The Next Great Soccer War

For as long as professional soccer has existed in the United States, there has been drama and conflict between the alphabet soup of entities and organizations controlling the game. The casualties of these conflicts have been hundreds of clubs, and entire leagues, dating all the way back to the...

worldsoccertalk.com

 

[JCMore]

The only thing I found of interest in the article was using MLS Next Pro as a way to Move clubs into MLS via expansion. I never put that together from anything I was reading about the D2 league and it’s independent clubs. It’s a good idea and makes sense but since I don’t think I explicitly read it in any actual press releases or MLS marketing I am skeptical that it is actually true.

edit: Changing words due to confusion

 

[Shwafta]

The only thing I found of interest in the article was using MLS Next Pro as a way to promote clubs into MLS. I never put that together from anything I was reading about the D2 league and it’s independent clubs. It’s a good idea and makes sense but since I don’t think I explicitly read it in any actual press releases or MLS marketing I am skeptical that it is actually true.

Promote clubs? I definitely saw promoting players, but not clubs... that's interesting? Is this a way for Rochester or the others in the west to try and push for that?

 

[JCMore]

Promote clubs? I definitely saw promoting players, but not clubs... that's interesting? Is this a way for Rochester or the others in the west to try and push for that?

That’s the argument the article is suggesting, yes. And to clarify, promote is the wrong word. It’s more like give them an expansion to MLS.

 

[Shwafta]

That’s the argument the article is suggesting, yes. And to clarify, promote is the wrong word. It’s more like give them an expansion to MLS.

Yeah that's what I meant too. Seems weird to me... especially if MLS is so intent on capping at around 30-32 teams or whatever. Huge gamble...

 

[Gotham Gator]

There is 1 club in MLS Next Pro that isn't affiliated with a current or future MLS team, and the league is not expanding to Rochester.

 

[JCMore]

There is 1 club in MLS Next Pro that isn't affiliated with a current or future MLS team, and the league is not expanding to Rochester.

Right, but their promotional info mentioned that Rochester is the first of its kind in the league’s inaugural year. In the near future they are planning to add more non-affiliated teams. Whether their plan is to eventually move them into mls, that remains to be seen

 

[KevinJRogers]

Right, but their promotional info mentioned that Rochester is the first of its kind in the league’s inaugural year. In the near future they are planning to add more non-affiliated teams. Whether their plan is to eventually move them into mls, that remains to be seen

I think it's fair to say the saturation point for MLS is 36 teams in three conferences. If I'm right, the route is still open for a few more cities. MLS NEXT Pro could be a pathway for them, if they're non-affiliated. Or they could come out of the USL as we've already seen with Nashville, Orlando, etc.

But I think the real point is this: "(I)f and when MLS does finally decide to arrive at a hard cap on the number of teams at the top division, the expansion effort can refocus entirely over to MLSNP. MLS can flesh out its own, insulated minor league pyramid – perhaps someday even including the creation of a second division league."

I think that's actually the long-term plan. Something along the lines of the MLB model. Which brings up all kinds of intriguing scenarios.

 

[JCMore]

I think it's fair to say the saturation point for MLS is 36 teams in three conferences. If I'm right, the route is still open for a few more cities. MLS NEXT Pro could be a pathway for them, if they're non-affiliated. Or they could come out of the USL as we've already seen with Nashville, Orlando, etc.

But I think the real point is this: "(I)f and when MLS does finally decide to arrive at a hard cap on the number of teams at the top division, the expansion effort can refocus entirely over to MLSNP. MLS can flesh out its own, insulated minor league pyramid – perhaps someday even including the creation of a second division league."

I think that's actually the long-term plan. Something along the lines of the MLB model. Which brings up all kinds of intriguing scenarios.

My only quibble with your post is the 3 conference system, it’s either 2 or 4, an uneven number makes playoffs too difficult. But everything else you say is in fact very interesting

 

[Davo15]

They just need to put a team in New Haven at any level of the pyramid and I'll be happy lol.

 

[Seth]

But I think the real point is this: "(I)f and when MLS does finally decide to arrive at a hard cap on the number of teams at the top division, the expansion effort can refocus entirely over to MLSNP. MLS can flesh out its own, insulated minor league pyramid – perhaps someday even including the creation of a second division league."

Well obviously we’re preparing for pro/rel.

<runs away to hide until it’s safe to come out again LOL>

 

[Alex Da Silva]

They just need to put a team in New Haven at any level of the pyramid and I'll be happy lol.

RIP elm city express

 

[KevinJRogers]

My only quibble with your post is the 3 conference system, it’s either 2 or 4, an uneven number makes playoffs too difficult. But everything else you say is in fact very interesting

To be honest, I don't think a three-conference league makes the playoffs too difficult. More difficult, maybe. But there are ways to design it where you can get to even numbers. I have to admit, any way of doing it fairly would almost certainly add games, though, which is definitely enough of a consideration to be a show stopper.

Another way of doing it would be to mimic the NFL and have two conferences with, say, four five-team divisions in each. That gets you to 40 teams total, but that seems an awfully unwieldy number to me. I could be wrong about that. It just feels so huge. So does any four-conference model.

Two conferences, three six-team divisions each conference gets you to 36, which also might work, and seems to be the real upper limit. If it has to be two conferences with no divisions it's hard to see going past 32 teams. Beyond that you're starting to talk two full-sized leagues.

 

[KevinJRogers]

Well obviously we’re preparing for pro/rel.

<runs away to hide until it’s safe to come out again LOL>

I just don't see how a single-entity league can do pro/rel. Maybe if the league owns all the teams in all the divisions, all the way down, but it still means some very, very unhappy investor groups.

 

[Seth]

I just don't see how a single-entity league can do pro/rel. Maybe if the league owns all the teams in all the divisions, all the way down, but it still means some very, very unhappy investor groups.

I really only bring up pro/rel when I want to cause a little trouble, just for fun. I'm definitely in favor of it though, but I can see how it might be an issue here, for various reasons. I mean, we have the Nationals, who are currently 27½ games out, or the A's, 28½ out. Do they really deserve to stay in the league? And if they're better in five years and fight their way back up, good for them.

And for even more troublemaking, I'm a Supporters Shield proponent too! I mean really, who cares who wins a random tournament at the end of the year. Are we really deciding the champion by who can win three in a row? Seems bananas. Now the Shield, on the other hand, shows who's the best team over an entire season. Much better!

<runs away again!>

 

[mgarbowski]

I really only bring up pro/rel when I want to cause a little trouble, just for fun. I'm definitely in favor of it though, but I can see how it might be an issue here, for various reasons. I mean, we have the Nationals, who are currently 27½ games out, or the A's, 28½ out. Do they really deserve to stay in the league? And if they're better in five years and fight their way back up, good for them.

And for even more troublemaking, I'm a Supporters Shield proponent too! I mean really, who cares who wins a random tournament at the end of the year. Are we really deciding the champion by who can win three in a row? Seems bananas. Now the Shield, on the other hand, shows who's the best team over an entire season. Much better!

<runs away again!>

Should the 1968 NY Mets (18th out of 20 in a combined table) have been relegated?

 

[Seth]

Should the 1968 NY Mets (18th out of 20 in a combined table) have been relegated?

Ugh, I <knew> some curmudgeon or other would bring that up! LOL

As a Mets fan who was 9 when they won it all the next year I’d say definitely not! And it could be worthwhile to have a discussion of an expansion team grace period, perhaps. But honestly, does a team that loses 120 games (in their first year) belong in the majors? Probably not. They were much better in 1968 though, losing only 89 games!

I feel like I now have to write a science fiction novel where just as a minor bit of incidental backdrop world building the ‘69 Mets won the triple-A title and then the next year in 1970 won the Series, same year as the joint US/USSR first moon landing.

So yes, heartbreaking if your team goes down, and ecstasy when your team gets promoted. And a lot of interesting drama even if you’re a neutral as far as the relegation zone goes.

Will it happen here? “Signs point to no.” *

* Not an actual Magic 8 Ball™ saying

 

[Gotham Gator]

This is the point where it's worth stating that the existence of playoffs and the lack of pro/rel are related.

Sports leagues struggle with keeping games meaningful. As a season progresses, fans figure out pretty quickly which handful of teams are in the elite, leaving the rest with no chance to top the table. European soccer deals with this by having contests to end up in UCL and Europa League to engage a larger number at top and in the middle. It also engages fans of teams toward the bottom by having a relegation race.

American sports leagues deal with this by having absurdly large playoffs to determine the champion. Football has to do this because there are so few games in the regular season, but none of the other sports do. Yet, MLB plays a 162-game season and then has 40% of its teams make the post season. The NBA plays an 82-game season then puts two-thirds of its teams in the playoffs. This is largely to keep fans of mediocre teams engaged for as long as possible.

 

[FootyLovin]

This is the point where it's worth stating that the existence of playoffs and the lack of pro/rel are related.

Sports leagues struggle with keeping games meaningful. As a season progresses, fans figure out pretty quickly which handful of teams are in the elite, leaving the rest with no chance to top the table. European soccer deals with this by having contests to end up in UCL and Europa League to engage a larger number at top and in the middle. It also engages fans of teams toward the bottom by having a relegation race.

American sports leagues deal with this by having absurdly large playoffs to determine the champion. Football has to do this because there are so few games in the regular season, but none of the other sports do. Yet, MLB plays a 162-game season and then has 40% of its teams make the post season. The NBA plays an 82-game season then puts two-thirds of its teams in the playoffs. This is largely to keep fans of mediocre teams engaged for as long as possible.

Europe really does have an ingenious system. The idea that 75% of the teams are playing meaningful matches to the very end (or near it). I guess maybe it gets boring if your team is in the 11-15 spots. But otherwise ... just ingenious.

 

[KevinJRogers]

Europe really does have an ingenious system. The idea that 75% of the teams are playing meaningful matches to the very end (or near it). I guess maybe it gets boring if your team is in the 11-15 spots. But otherwise ... just ingenious.

That's by far the best aspect of pro/rel, in my opinion. The perennial mid-table stalwarts are the only ones trundling along, and even there you have your derbies. For everyone else, there's something to play for right to the end of the season. Every year it seems there are some amazing late-season matches between teams at opposite ends of the table.

Maybe, over time, as MLS grows there will be a way to do it. A lot of possibilities open up once the revenue is there. But I think the most likely scenario is for the game to develop along parallel tracks, with the USL operating on the pro/rel model (assuming they survive) and MLS keeping their model as-is.