2017 Projecting By The Numbers and Chasing A Narrative

[mgarbowski]

Atlanta has one of the most bonkers schedule left in MLS...

I don't think you need the qualifier "one of". It's way out there.
I think the schedulers started out with them a game behind us and home heavy late-- but still in line with a lot of other teams -- to load a few extra home games in the new stadium. Then that was delayed and they postponed the games they were supposed to play the last 2 weeks and you get the craziness you described.

 

[LionNYC]

I don't think you need the qualifier "one of". It's way out there.
I think the schedulers started out with them a game behind us and home heavy late-- but still in line with a lot of other teams -- to load a few extra home games in the new stadium. Then that was delayed and they postponed the games they were supposed to play the last 2 weeks and you get the craziness you described.

Maybe I should have said one of the most bonkers schedules left in MLS history!

 

[dannd23]

Maybe I should have said one of the most bonkers schedules left in MLS history!

Without knowing, I am sure MLS has had something crazier at some point. Because MLS.

 

[canchon]

So with those games condensed, there is little to no recovery time and if someone gets injured, they miss 4-6 games instead of the 1-2 by a normal schedule. Brutal.

 

[Ulrich]

So with those games condensed, there is little to no recovery time and if someone gets injured, they miss 4-6 games instead of the 1-2 by a normal schedule. Brutal.

Atlanta is going to be playing like a rabid dog, especially if they drop some games due to the schedule. I'm glad we are done with them until potentially the playoffs - and this crazed push to the end could tap them out once the playoffs start.

 

[The Toe]

So, let's think here. Assuming we get the 2nd slot in the MLS Cup Playoffs, we'll certainly be taking on the higher seed of the winners of the first round. Who will we want and what TOR matchup will we want to see to avoid them in the ECF? I'd honestly be thrilled to see Montreal and Chicago round out the top 4, assuming they're who we'd most likely see. A NJ crapshoot at home, or a dangerously fast ATL scare the shit out of me. It feels like NJ will drop with their schedule into the 5th slot, and maybe ATL will fall to the 6 with the brutal schedule coming up. MTL has games in hand and have been better recently with their additions, and Chicago doesn't scare me anymore, especially at home with a 100% fit squad.

Hoping for:

Toronto
NYC
Chicago
Montreal
NJ
Atlanta

If we're going to have to take the highest seed, let it be Chicago or Montreal. I think both NJ and ATL are more dangerous -- Let them take out Toronto and hope for the best come the ECF.

 

[mgarbowski]

So, let's think here. Assuming we get the 2nd slot in the MLS Cup Playoffs, we'll certainly be taking on the higher seed of the winners of the first round. Who will we want and what TOR matchup will we want to see to avoid them in the ECF? I'd honestly be thrilled to see Montreal and Chicago round out the top 4, assuming they're who we'd most likely see. A NJ crapshoot at home, or a dangerously fast ATL scare the shit out of me. It feels like NJ will drop with their schedule into the 5th slot, and maybe ATL will fall to the 6 with the brutal schedule coming up. MTL has games in hand and have been better recently with their additions, and Chicago doesn't scare me anymore, especially at home with a 100% fit squad.

Hoping for:

Toronto
NYC
Chicago
Montreal
NJ
Atlanta

If we're going to have to take the highest seed, let it be Chicago or Montreal. I think both NJ and ATL are more dangerous -- Let them take out Toronto and hope for the best come the ECF.

I can't decide yet. I need to see if Atlanta looks spent and empty after their crazy schedule, or if they come through it energized.

 

[Ulrich]

I can't decide yet. I need to see if Atlanta looks spent and empty after their crazy schedule, or if they come through it energized.

Might as well add one more away game to our schedule with the CT fiasco. What's our record in neutral site friendlies?

 

[Marito]

I can't decide yet. I need to see if Atlanta looks spent and empty after their crazy schedule, or if they come through it energized.

A lot of how dangerous ATL may look in a hypothetical matchup with us depends on whether Josef Martinez is match fit or not. I would really really not like to see a fully fit Martinez going against Brillant or Sweat or White. Then again, he's been injured more than fit throughout the season. So let's hope.

 

[Gotham Gator]

So, let's think here. Assuming we get the 2nd slot in the MLS Cup Playoffs, we'll certainly be taking on the higher seed of the winners of the first round. Who will we want and what TOR matchup will we want to see to avoid them in the ECF? I'd honestly be thrilled to see Montreal and Chicago round out the top 4, assuming they're who we'd most likely see. A NJ crapshoot at home, or a dangerously fast ATL scare the shit out of me. It feels like NJ will drop with their schedule into the 5th slot, and maybe ATL will fall to the 6 with the brutal schedule coming up. MTL has games in hand and have been better recently with their additions, and Chicago doesn't scare me anymore, especially at home with a 100% fit squad.

Hoping for:

Toronto
NYC
Chicago
Montreal
NJ
Atlanta

If we're going to have to take the highest seed, let it be Chicago or Montreal. I think both NJ and ATL are more dangerous -- Let them take out Toronto and hope for the best come the ECF.

Switch Montreal and Atlanta, and I am happy.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Interesting quote below from Vieira. One that I hadn't seen before. This is from this week's SI power rankings.

"I think all the other teams are going to fight for the second spot and Toronto will win the league,” NYCFC coach Patrick Vieira told reporters. “I think you see it [in Chicago]. They are quite really strong and I don't think anybody will catch them."
​

https://www.si.com/soccer/2017/08/2...to-fc-nycfc-supporters-shield-sounders-impact

 

[Gotham Gator]

Heres a question. What's the most points an MLS team has finished with without winning the Supporters' Shield? That is, the best 2nd place ever?

That may be what we are fighting for at this point.

 

[canchon]

Heres a question. What's the most points an MLS team has finished with without winning the Supporters' Shield? That is, the best 2nd place ever?

That may be what we are fighting for at this point.

2011 - LAG won the SS with 67 points and Seattle finished 2nd with 63 points.

In 2014 LAG also finished second with 61 points (Seattle won with 64). In 2015 Dallas and RBNJ tied with 60 points and Dallas finished 2nd.

So there have been teams who got 60+ and didn't get the shield. Last four years shield winner has received 59, 64, 60 and 60 pts.

 

[canchon]

Eight games left.

Four wins and a tie gets NYCFC to 60 points (which is pretty much the clip they have been playing at for the last season and a half). According to SportsClubStats, 60 points gives NYCFC a 88% chance at the #2 seed.

If you want to think they have any chance at the Shield, don't look at SportsClubStats. That site pretty much confirms what Vieira said.

 

[Ulrich]

mgarbowski , are you ready to admit that chicago is in a flaming freefall and that it's not simply a home/away venue issue? It all started with the devastating loss to us, and at this point they are very much in jeopardy of losing the #3 spot (I realize they are technically in 4th but with two games in hand- Columbus is an outlier for comparison) and potentially even the #4 if the teams behind them get any sort of form.

 

[mgarbowski]

mgarbowski , are you ready to admit that chicago is in a flaming freefall and that it's not simply a home/away venue issue? It all started with the devastating loss to us, and at this point they are very much in jeopardy of losing the #3 spot (I realize they are technically in 4th but with two games in hand- Columbus is an outlier for comparison) and potentially even the #4 if the teams behind them get any sort of form.

You'll have to wait for the week ends and the complete post, but HINT: I was already planning to cover it.

 

[Ulrich]

You'll have to wait for the week ends and the complete post, but HINT: I was already planning to cover it.

Just wanted to make sure.

 

[LionNYC]

Eight games left.

Four wins and a tie gets NYCFC to 60 points (which is pretty much the clip they have been playing at for the last season and a half). According to SportsClubStats, 60 points gives NYCFC a 88% chance at the #2 seed.

If you want to think they have any chance at the Shield, don't look at SportsClubStats. That site pretty much confirms what Vieira said.

If Toronto wins at Montreal today, they would have a 9 point gap even though we have a game in hand. I still think a shield run isn't going to happen.

Now the super crappy thing this year (and next year) is that we would have clinched a CCL birth if we came in 2nd and Toronto won the shield. But because of the revised CCL MLS qualifying due to the restructured CCL competition only MLS Cup and US Open Cup winners get the bids for this year and next.

 

[mgarbowski]

If Toronto wins at Montreal today, they would have a 9 point gap even though we have a game in hand. I still think a shield run isn't going to happen.

Now the super crappy thing this year (and next year) is that we would have clinched a CCL birth if we came in 2nd and Toronto won the shield. But because of the revised CCL MLS qualifying due to the restructured CCL competition only MLS Cup and US Open Cup winners get the bids for this year and next.

Worse, Red Bulls qualified last year by winning the East, and could qualify this year by winning one more game in USOC.

This year, the obvious best case scenario is NYC winning MLS Cup. There is also possible hope if NYC at least comes in second this year. As best as I can tell, there has been no announcement as to who qualifies if one team wins both Cups, eg SKC double (let's not even contemplate the other option) or if a Canadian team -- most likely Toronto -- wins MLS Cup. I have to think the best US record in MLS regular season gets the spot in that case and we're in very good position for that.

 

[canchon]

Toronto won today (giovinco is literally hitting a free kick goal per game, better now than in the playoffs). This probably wraps up the Shield for them.

The big question is if TOR wins MLS cup, who would take the MLS Cup winner's position in CCL. If it's #2 in the league NYCFC is in good position to get to CCL this way.