Also in the West, the Galaxy are in serious trouble of missing the playoffs. They are currently 5th in the table, but 7th in PPG and Vancouver is only 3 points back with a game in hand. But their remaining schedule is also really tough, they have the big home derby match against LAFC which is huge, and then at RSL who is very tough at home, at TFC, home against Seattle and then Vancouver (these two matches could decide if LAG is in or out as they are all competing for spots), at SKC, at Minnesota (also very tough at home), and then finish with a home game against Houston.
2018 - Running With the Numbers and the Quest for Everything
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
If the Sounders displace anyone it is likely to be either the Galaxy or RSL. As you note they play each other in Utah, and that game could decide who drops, though RSL might need to win out at home, where it has the second best record behind NYCFC. Petke and the Printers play Colorado, Atlanta, SKC and Portland on the road, and even the Rapids are looking better, at least at home, since getting one of the Acostas.
Sounds like a great band name.
Debut EP
1. Pass Em Out Trey
2. F*ck PRO
3. I Don't A F*ck Anymore
4. Fine Me, Jeff Agoos
5. Drain My Bank Account
6. Red Card
With last night's draw, neither San Jose or Chicago can finish ahead of NYCFC on the table.
Welp, I guess that means it's time for someone to start doing a playoff qualification and shield magic number countdown.
I like when MLS starts doing the "requirements for X team to be eliminated from playoff contention" or shield etc. That column is great.
Atlanta can clinch a playoff next week with:
- A win Sunday at DC
- A draw at DC AND a New England loss or draw to Portland
- A loss/draw for:
- New England home against Portland AND
- Montreal home against New Jersey AND
- TFC at Portland (Wed) OR TFC home against LAFC (Sat)
Guys, I'm scared. I don't think we're going to end up in 2nd place, but I don't think that counts us out whatsoever.....
.....as long as Toronto isn't the #6.
.....as long as Toronto isn't the #6.
I am not scared of that scenario. I am pretty sure Michael Bradley will still be playing for Toronto in the playoffs.
The problem though is that Toronto, in order to make the playoffs, will have to go on a run, so they would be hot.
Toronto still has a very tough road to get to the playoffs. The kinda good thing about that for them, is a few of these games are against teams fighting for those spots (games left against DCU, Montreal, and New England). However, at Portland, home to LAFC, home to the Galaxy, at Red Bulls, and home to Atlanta are very tough matches to go along with those.
It's not pretty for finishing top 2.
Atlanta has 17 points from its previous 8 games. If they get 17 from the final 8 coming up, NYC has to win every game to pass them. But, Atlanta has Away games at DC, RB, and TFC. If they lose all 3 and tie one somewhere, that's only 13 points, and NYC needs to finish . . . . . . 6-1-1 just to draw even on points, then probably have the same number of wins, and likely lose on GD. Also note that Atlanta lost 4 games all year, and losing 3 of the final 8 represents a major slump. It can happen. Worse can happen, but these are major hurdles.
Viewed game-by-game, RB might have an easier schedule than Atlanta, with the toughest games being Away in DC, and hosting Toronto (poor road record but finally in decent form) and Atlanta. They also have some middling Away games in Montreal and Philly. The Impact are above average at Home, though not by a lot. The Union are exactly mid-table on Home form, but seem improved. The Red Bulls' other 3 games are easy: home to Houston and Orlando (7 Away points and 6, respectively) and travel to San Jose (8 points in 12 games). A poor 4-3-1 finish for RB is 65 points, and NYC must finish 5-0-3 or better to exceed that.
Most likely, NYCFC needs one of Atlanta and RB to lose all its remaining tough games, plus suffer an upset or 2, to have a meaningful chance to overtake them. Also, a 7-game winning streak like Seattle has going would help (though still not guarantee anything).
It feels as if NYC has been treading water since the start of the season, but look at it this way. NYC started 5-0-2 (2.43 PPG). Since then the PPG over the next 19 is 1.63. That is a significant drop, but besides Atlanta and RB, only Dallas, SKC and LAFC are better over the entire season (and LAFC barely so). If you excised those teams' best 7-game stretch it would get much uglier for them. In sum, NYC's season disappoints because Atlanta and the Red Bulls are heading to possible all time great seasons at the same time in the same conference.
Who do you want to face in a first round playoff matchup? The Union seem likely to grab the 5th spot, with a puncher's chance at catching the Crew. The mostly likely 6th place finishers are DC, the Impact, and Toronto. 538 ranks their chances in that order, with a big gap after DC. I know some people have shown concern over facing Toronto. Even DC, though much weaker on the road, could be scary given their surge. It could be that the best thing NYC can do to improve its chances would be to win both games against DC and make it a little more likely that Montreal slips in.
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View attachment 9103
View attachment 9104
It's not pretty for finishing top 2.
Atlanta has 17 points from its previous 8 games. If they get 17 from the final 8 coming up, NYC has to win every game to pass them. But, Atlanta has Away games at DC, RB, and TFC. If they lose all 3 and tie one somewhere, that's only 13 points, and NYC needs to finish . . . . . . 6-1-1 just to draw even on points, then probably have the same number of wins, and likely lose on GD. Also note that Atlanta lost 4 games all year, and losing 3 of the final 8 represents a major slump. It can happen. Worse can happen, but these are major hurdles.
Viewed game-by-game, RB might have an easier schedule than Atlanta, with the toughest games being Away in DC, and hosting Toronto (poor road record but finally in decent form) and Atlanta. They also have some middling Away games in Montreal and Philly. The Impact are above average at Home, though not by a lot. The Union are exactly mid-table on Home form, but seem improved. The Red Bulls' other 3 games are easy: home to Houston and Orlando (7 Away points and 6, respectively) and travel to San Jose (8 points in 12 games). A poor 4-3-1 finish for RB is 65 points, and NYC must finish 5-0-3 or better to exceed that.
View attachment 9105
Most likely, NYCFC needs one of Atlanta and RB to lose all its remaining tough games, plus suffer an upset or 2, to have a meaningful chance to overtake them. Also, a 7-game winning streak like Seattle has going would help (though still not guarantee anything).
View attachment 9106
It feels as if NYC has been treading water since the start of the season, but look at it this way. NYC started 5-0-2 (2.43 PPG). Since then the PPG over the next 18 is 1.63. That is a significant drop, but besides Atlanta and RB, only Dallas, SKC and LAFC are better over the entire season (and LAFC barely so). If you excised those teams' best 7-game stretch it would get much uglier for them. In sum, NYC's season disappoints because Atlanta and the Red Bulls are heading to possible all time great seasons at the same time in the same conference.
Who do you want to face in a first round playoff matchup? The Union seem likely to grab the 5th spot, with a puncher's chance at catching the Crew. The mostly likely 6th place finishers are DC, the Impact, and Toronto. 538 ranks their chances in that order, with a big gap after DC. I know some people have shown concern over facing Toronto. Even DC, though much weaker on the road, could be scary given their surge. It could be that the best thing NYC can do to improve its chances would be to win both games against DC and make it a little more likely that Montreal slips in.
Also hoping for Montreal if we’re 3rd. On a brighter note: I’ve looked it up and Toronto, DCU & Montreal are all winless at Citi Field if we have to have a first round ‘home’ matchup. Lastly, Houston @ NJ is not a gimme considering all the matches NJ has had to play in the last 2 weeks and their lack of rotation.
View attachment 9103
View attachment 9104
It's not pretty for finishing top 2.
Atlanta has 17 points from its previous 8 games. If they get 17 from the final 8 coming up, NYC has to win every game to pass them. But, Atlanta has Away games at DC, RB, and TFC. If they lose all 3 and tie one somewhere, that's only 13 points, and NYC needs to finish . . . . . . 6-1-1 just to draw even on points, then probably have the same number of wins, and likely lose on GD. Also note that Atlanta lost 4 games all year, and losing 3 of the final 8 represents a major slump. It can happen. Worse can happen, but these are major hurdles.
Viewed game-by-game, RB might have an easier schedule than Atlanta, with the toughest games being Away in DC, and hosting Toronto (poor road record but finally in decent form) and Atlanta. They also have some middling Away games in Montreal and Philly. The Impact are above average at Home, though not by a lot. The Union are exactly mid-table on Home form, but seem improved. The Red Bulls' other 3 games are easy: home to Houston and Orlando (7 Away points and 6, respectively) and travel to San Jose (8 points in 12 games). A poor 4-3-1 finish for RB is 65 points, and NYC must finish 5-0-3 or better to exceed that.
View attachment 9105
Most likely, NYCFC needs one of Atlanta and RB to lose all its remaining tough games, plus suffer an upset or 2, to have a meaningful chance to overtake them. Also, a 7-game winning streak like Seattle has going would help (though still not guarantee anything).
View attachment 9106
It feels as if NYC has been treading water since the start of the season, but look at it this way. NYC started 5-0-2 (2.43 PPG). Since then the PPG over the next 19 is 1.63. That is a significant drop, but besides Atlanta and RB, only Dallas, SKC and LAFC are better over the entire season (and LAFC barely so). If you excised those teams' best 7-game stretch it would get much uglier for them. In sum, NYC's season disappoints because Atlanta and the Red Bulls are heading to possible all time great seasons at the same time in the same conference.
Who do you want to face in a first round playoff matchup? The Union seem likely to grab the 5th spot, with a puncher's chance at catching the Crew. The mostly likely 6th place finishers are DC, the Impact, and Toronto. 538 ranks their chances in that order, with a big gap after DC. I know some people have shown concern over facing Toronto. Even DC, though much weaker on the road, could be scary given their surge. It could be that the best thing NYC can do to improve its chances would be to win both games against DC and make it a little more likely that Montreal slips in.
Playoff-wise, I'd want to play Montreal.
Juicy matchup-wise I'd choose Toronto so we could get revenge for two years ago.
And finally, DC would just be a fun end-to-end matchup.
Red Bull schedule is kind of crazy right now, after hosting Houston they go to Montreal on Saturday. Five games in 15 days. This could be NYC's opening, but if they don't drop points here...
Toronto scares the hell out of me. All it takes is a couple of touches by, or fouls on Gio within 25 yards of goal, to account for a deficit. And Altidore and Vazquez like to terrorize us. They would be coming in hot, playing a game that counts, with playoff focus.
Tomorrow is a big night for the Eastern conference. Red Bulls hosting Houston, DCU hosting Philly, and TFC at Portland.
NYCFC is finishing third. Been saying it for the last month. RBNJ and Atlanta are going at record pace and NYCFC just shit the bed the last 7 games or so.
A hot DCU or Toronto would be trouble. Can’t see Montreal or Philly (even though NYCFC looked like complete poop against them) winning the knockout game.
A hot DCU or Toronto would be trouble. Can’t see Montreal or Philly (even though NYCFC looked like complete poop against them) winning the knockout game.
- NYCFC started the season with an unbeaten 5-0-2 run of 7 games for 2.43 PPG. Since then, they are just 9-7-4 in the most recent 20 games, for 1.55 PPG, which would be just 52.7 points if done over a full season. A playoff team, but worse than last year. Still, the first 7 games count, and you should not discount them just because of timing. Remove any club's best 7-game stretch from the season and they look much worse.
- NYCFC started the season with an unbeaten 5-0-2 run of 7 games for 2.43 PPG. Then the Patrick Vieira to Arsenal rumors started. Since then, the team's PPG is 0.88 lower than it was before Patrick became distracted. The club never really recovered.
- NYCFC started the season with 1.91 PG through 11 games, of which only 4 were at home. It was a brutal schedule to begin, and NYCFC managed 2 Away wins, plus impressive road draws against Atlanta and LAFC (with a clinker in Harrison mixed in). Still, they were poised to start a run through the easiest part of their schedule when the Vieira to Nice rumors started on May 15. Since then they earned just 1.69 PPG despite playing 2 more Home than Away games.
- Patrick Vieira had the club playing well through the first 15 games before he left. The team PPG was at 1.87, and his last game, though only a draw, was perhaps the best game the team played all year, thoroughly dominating Atlanta in Yankee Stadium in all areas except finishing. Since then the team has tread water under new coach Dome Torrent, earning a respectable if mundane 1.67 PPG.
- NYCFC dominates at home, benefiting from an extreme home field advantage due to the uniquely small field. Conversely, they flounder away, where they concede 3.85 times as many goals per game as they do at home [0.54 GA/g Home, 2.07 GA/g Away].
- NYCFC started extremely well, but then settled into a pattern of winning at home while struggling on the road, until a series of ridiculous travel games, injuries, and red cards, cursed them to a streak of 5 points in 6 games, and facing 2 upcoming games with further players unavailable due to international call-ups. For the first time they are lower than they were after the same number of games in 2017, and also are at risk of finishing below their point total from the year before, which has never happened to date. The circumstances are a combination of bad luck, possibly poor training methods, and poor roster construction over-reliant on injury-prone players and mid-range national team roster fillers more than any issues regarding the coaching staff or player performance.
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