After This Week, 3 Points Seperates 3rd From 9th(us) In The East

[LionNYC]

Chicago: 1/6 Total Points
Philadelphia: 4/9 Total Points
Colorado 1/3 Total Points

Early in the season we only scored 6 out 18 points against the worst teams in the league. Obviously, our roster and formations weren't then what they are now. However, say we won all of these games, which we should have done, NYCFC would have 33 points, 2 points from 1st place.

 

[mgarbowski]

Our opponents in our first 19 games have an average ppg of 1.298.

Our opponents in our last 15 games have an average ppg of 1.401.

Less than I thought/feared but still meaningful.

 

[leilanikali420]

A lot is dependent on whether Crew keeps free falling.

Not to mention New England is mid free fall as well. Hopefully our upswing continues. If we can't make a last half of the season push with Villa, Pirlo, Angelino, Iraola, Mix, Poku, two decent CBs, and Lampard...

Seriously, in about 2 weeks the team is going to be stacked and should not even consider losing or even drawing an option.

 

[Midas Mulligan]

Just be careful not to get too attached to the specific number 42. I try to carefully say "around 42" and for good reason. In my head I think it means I have high confidence the number will be between 40 and 44, and very high confidence it will be 39-45. It's kind of like when real statisticians say things like there is an 80% chance results will be between x and y, and 95% chance between a broader range. Except mine is much, much less scientific. So if you want to translate my projection into high confidence we make the playoffs, target for 45-46. And if even that is wrong, I'll give you twice your money back for my analyses.

Basically, we need 24 points to get to a place where it is more likely than not that we make the playoffs. 27 points makes us a virtual lock. I'm a bit unclear as to how they treat ties in this model. And I dont like that it doesn't give us a game by game look at the rest of the year. I have decided you'd need a supercomputer to figure that shit out, though.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/mls/nycityfcwhatif.html

Dude, that's why I posted this! They did the heavy lifting. And it basically agrees with you. 45 will get us in barring weird shit. And by weird shit, I mean extremely weird shit.