2025 Leagues Cup

[ZYanksRule]

DOGSO but there sure looked to be at least a little simulation there. Maybe more than a little simulation.

 

[gbservis]

DOGSO but there sure looked to be at least a little simulation there. Maybe more than a little simulation.

I thought it was a soft but possible DOGSO at first, too, but the more I watched it, I think the attacker is the one who changes course to run into the defender. Given the pace of the attacker and the head start he has on the ball, I think he gets to it if he just runs onto it and doesn't go out of his way to make contact with the Miami player.

 

[canchon]

So you don’t like the Workd Cup or the Euros?

Yep in the prior WC group stage format (RIP) it was something like 80% you are going through if you win the first game and vice versa if you lose the first game.

It’s like you don’t have to win the first game of the group stage but you cannot lose.

 

[CCMore]

Me posting my Inter Miami tickets for sale and then finding out Messi gets injured

 

[Gene]

The guy who bought your tickets.

 

[Revfugee]

Yep in the prior WC group stage format (RIP) it was something like 80% you are going through if you win the first game and vice versa if you lose the first game.

It’s like you don’t have to win the first game of the group stage but you cannot lose.

Just off the top of my head Spain and Argentina both lost their first group stage matches and went on to win the whole thing. Same with England Women this year in Euros. And Italy has a tradition of narrow escapes going deep into tournaments. 80-20 is probably statistically correct but personally the group stage chaos is always my favorite part of any big tournament.

 

[LionNYC]

Just off the top of my head Spain and Argentina both lost their first group stage matches and went on to win the whole thing. Same with England Women this year in Euros. And Italy has a tradition of narrow escapes going deep into tournaments. 80-20 is probably statistically correct but personally the group stage chaos is always my favorite part of any big tournament.

But that's because it was a true group style format. Here all the MLS teams are in a single "group" and only 4 advance.

 

[moogoo]

Just off the top of my head Spain and Argentina both lost their first group stage matches and went on to win the whole thing. Same with England Women this year in Euros. And Italy has a tradition of narrow escapes going deep into tournaments. 80-20 is probably statistically correct but personally the group stage chaos is always my favorite part of any big tournament.

in order for us to advance, we would need to score a lot of goals to boost our GD and get a lot of help in pretty much every other game.

 

[CCMore]

in order for us to advance, we would need to score a lot of goals to boost our GD and get a lot of help in pretty much every other game.

So what you’re telling me is @Brooklyn Blue’s 7-0 is incoming?

 

[Revfugee]

in order for us to advance, we would need to score a lot of goals to boost our GD and get a lot of help in pretty much every other game.

Well yeah. I was addressing the larger point.

 

[Sabo]

in order for us to advance, we would need to score a lot of goals to boost our GD and get a lot of help in pretty much every other game.

With this format we have the tiebreaker on Minnesota, LAG, Columbus, Orlando, Cincy and NJRB. If we beat Toluca, all of those teams can only finish ahead of us in the table if they win in regulation and get the 3 points. Tie in regulation and shootout win and they also have 6 points but are behind us. Miami ties and loses in shootout, then they are behind us too. We arent catching Seattle and Portland. The odds are heavily against us advancing if we win, but GD doesn't really matter as much as Liga MX beating or tying MLS in regulation. BTW if any forum posters want a ticket, message me. No one else in my soccer circle wants to go to the game.

 

[moogoo]

With this format we have the tiebreaker on Minnesota, LAG, Columbus, Orlando, Cincy and NJRB. If we beat Toluca, all of those teams can only finish ahead of us in the table if they win in regulation and get the 3 points. Tie in regulation and shootout win and they also have 6 points but are behind us. Miami ties and loses in shootout, then they are behind us too. We arent catching Seattle and Portland. The odds are heavily against us advancing if we win, but GD doesn't really matter as much as Liga MX beating or tying MLS in regulation. BTW if any forum posters want a ticket, message me. No one else in my soccer circle wants to go to the game.

didn't realize wins in regular time was the first tie break. i was thinking it was GD.

 

[Kenny]

No strong rooting interest here... if anything maybe Pachuca. Unassuming little club with an interesting history--oldest club in Mexico, founded by mostly Cornish immigrant mining company workers, still nicknamed Tuzos (gophers) for that reason. Consistently successful-ish and well-run, excellent academy, sells their best products to the "bigger" clubs, Ajax style.

 

[Marito]

View attachment 14079

No strong rooting interest here... if anything maybe Pachuca. Unassuming little club with an interesting history--oldest club in Mexico, founded by mostly Cornish immigrant mining company workers, still nicknamed Tuzos (gophers) for that reason. Consistently successful-ish and well-run, excellent academy, sells their best products to the "bigger" clubs, Ajax style.

Not particular interest but also surprised how poorly LigaMX teams did against MLS. MLS as a whole won 90 points in the group phase compared to 71 for MX. Almost all the truly lopsided results were in favor of MLS. And I don't know if the home turf argument holds much water since you'd have more Mexican fans in most stadiums.

 

[moogoo]

Not particular interest but also surprised how poorly LigaMX teams did against MLS. MLS as a whole won 90 points in the group phase compared to 71 for MX. Almost all the truly lopsided results were in favor of MLS. And I don't know if the home turf argument holds much water since you'd have more Mexican fans in most stadiums.

they have the same excuse as MLS does for CCC... it is just the start of their season so they aren't fully match sharp yet.

 

[FootyLovin]

And I don't know if the home turf argument holds much water since you'd have more Mexican fans in most stadiums.

COVID fan-less matches gave us some insight on this. Full home field advantage yields around 60-65% of the available points for the home team. Without fans the home team earns about 55%. So 1/2 to 1/3 of the home field effect is familiarity and travel. The travel effect is probably higher for Leagues Cup as it probably compounds as the MLS teams play match after match at home while LigaMX has to go 3 straight on the road.

At 90 points to 71 MLS won 56% of the points. Sounds about right.

 

[FootyLovin]

For future reference worth noting that the playoff line for MLS was 7 points and a goal differential of 6.

For LigaMX, 6 points, 2 wins, GD of 2.

 

[CCMore]

Anyone else annoyed the final four is all MLS? Don’t know why, but I feel like it makes the tournament mean even less than it already did.

 

[FootyLovin]

Anyone else annoyed the final four is all MLS? Don’t know why, but I feel like it makes the tournament mean even less than it already did.

With CCL up for grabs, this tourney will still mean something. But until they equalize the home field issue, this is not unexpected. I'd think MLS with 3 of the final 4 is even odds. This year they hit the over, but no shock.

 

[mgarbowski]

Anyone else annoyed the final four is all MLS? Don’t know why, but I feel like it makes the tournament mean even less than it already did.

I don't care enough to be annoyed, but as I sit at home I'm pointing and laughing at the very predictable fruits of a poorly designed tournament with conflicting inconsistent goals:

• sell MLS to LMX fans
• sell LMX to MLS fans
• give LMX fans in the US a way to see LMX teams live and more likely remain LMX fans
• make money by playing entirely in the US
• be entertaining
• be competitively balanced

There's no format that can advance all of those goals equally. It's impossible because they are in tension. Sure you can hope to grow the pie but people have real constraints in money, attention and especially time. So every time you make it easier for a LMX fan in the US to see LMX games in the US, you make it a bit less likely they become MLS fans. Similarly, if you play in both Mexico and the US to improve competitive balance, it both costs more money to produce and generates less money in revenue. Plus the primary target audience for the tournament is LMX fans living in the US. I don't think either LMX nor MLS hold this tournament to market to LMX fans living in Mexico, the number of MLS fans in Mexico is probably too small to be worth targeted marketing, and I suspect MLS has little expectation of making MLS fans out of soccer fans in Mexico. So there's zero reason to hold any games in Mexico except of course for purposes of entertainment and competition, which arguably should be the primary goals but obviously they are very secondary. And so a Catch-22 arises: the only fan subgroup that really wants this tournament is LMX fans in the US. But to cater to them geographically, you have to make the tournament unfair to the teams they love.

A semifinal round with 4 MLS teams is a natural expected consequence of a poorly considered project, and this was obvious from its inception.