CCL race

[adam]

This.

Bottom line.
We get in IF we win the east or MLS Cup
We almost certainly get in IF we have a better record than NJ at season end or any of TOR, MTL, DAL, COL, NJ win MLS Cup

Just on the face of it, having 1. NYC, 2.NJ, 3. TOR, 4. MTL, 5. COL and 6. DAL winning the MLS cup gives us a 50-50% chance of a CCL spot! Factor in the seeding, byes and just the fact that that list is more talented then the rest of the playoff pack and our odds go up. Now at the start of the season if I said "would you accept playoffs and a coin flip for CCL?", what would you say?

Still, I hope we earn our way in before the playoffs begin.

 

[SoupInNYC]

We should have a thread pinned or something on this somewhere. I feel like we've hashed this out like 16 times in various threads.

 

[Kjbert]

Sorry for the confusion. I'm lumping in Toronto/Can Champ here for simplicity's sake.

Let's make it easier for everyone. Root against NJRB, LA Galaxy and Colorado. Those are the only teams you really need to be concerned about right now if you want to play in the CCL.

 

[Seth]

Root against NJRB

Did you even have to really say this?

 

[BossNYC]

Sorry for the confusion. I'm lumping in Toronto/Can Champ here for simplicity's sake.

Let's make it easier for everyone. Root against NJRB, LA Galaxy and Colorado. Those are the only teams you really need to be concerned about right now if you want to play in the CCL.

The only team we have to be ahead of is NJ.

CCL qualifications for the US teams is #1 seed in the East and #1 seed in the West after the regular season, MLS Cup Winner and US Open Cup winner.

#1 seed in the East gets a spot in CCL but it can't be a Canadian team so Toronto and Montreal are no threat. NJ is the only team we need worry about now.

 

[SoupInNYC]

The only team we have to be ahead of is NJ.

CCL qualifications for the US teams is #1 seed in the East and #1 seed in the West after the regular season, MLS Cup Winner and US Open Cup winner.

#1 seed in the East gets a spot in CCL but it can't be a Canadian team so Toronto and Montreal are no threat. NJ is the only team we need worry about now.

This isn't completely accurate.

Again, if Toronto finishes in 1st and we finish in 2nd, it isn't the next team in the east but rather MLS US-based teams as a whole. Therefore if Colorado and LAG were to finish ahead of us in the total table, we would not make CCL (unless we win MLS Cup, or Dallas, Colorado, LAG win MLS Cup)

We really need this pinned somewhere.

 

[Ulrich]

This isn't completely accurate.

Again, if Toronto finishes in 1st and we finish in 2nd, it isn't the next team in the east but rather MLS US-based teams as a whole. Therefore if Colorado and LAG were to finish ahead of us in the total table, we would not make CCL (unless we win MLS Cup, or Dallas, Colorado, LAG win MLS Cup)

We really need this pinned somewhere.

Just get 6 more points

 

[adam]

UPDATE:

I had to add in Dallas because Colorado's 6 points in 2 matches has put them in position to pass Dallas with another win. If that happens the only way to earn a CCL spot in the regular season would be to win the East (or have Toronto win the East and finish ahead of NJ and LA). What COL winning the West would do is make it a little more likely that a CCL spot could open up in the playoffs if they win the MLS Cup. DAL, TOR, MTL, (and NJ if they win the East) wining the Cup would also put us in the CCL if we don't win the East and LA doesn't pass us.

What's really interesting is the decision that Oscar Pareja will probably have to make in a couple of weeks. In a virtual tie in Group H in the CCL with Suchitepequez (don't ask me to pronounce that), they play them at Gautamala in what will be the match that decides who advances out of that group. That's a Thursday match 1,700 miles from Dallas. They then have a Sunday match to end the season at LA, which is 2,600 miles from Guatamala if they fly direct. That's not only a ton of travel in 4 days, both matches will have CCL and SS implications. Pareja could choose to play all his staters in both matches knowing he has a bye week coming up. But even if he did, how much would his players have left in the tank after 2 high intensity matches in 4 days, coupled with 4,300 miles of travel; before they even have to go back to Dallas to recover. Dallas also plays at the hottest team in the league hosting Seattle next week. That's a tough matchup all in itself and a 4,000 mile round trip. (Not sure how to cross out text) Considering all these factors, I'm now leaning towards COL winning the West and the SS.

I won't go into too much detail about our chances in the East, that's been covered ad nausium (though talking NYC winning the East will NEVER make me sick) in a couple other threads.

Tables and renaming matches are below.




Games Remaining:

DAL: SEA, @CDS (Guatemala) & @LA
NJRB: CLB, @ PHI
NYC: @DC, CLB
COL: SJ & @POR, HOU
LA: @HOU, DAL



EDIT: changed to reflect Dallas plays Seattle at home.

 

[Gotham Gator]

What's really interesting is the decision that Oscar Pareja will probably have to make in a couple of weeks. In a virtual tie in Group H in the CCL with Suchitepequez (don't ask me to pronounce that), they play them at Gautamala in what will be the match that decides who advances out of that group. That's a Thursday match 1,700 miles from Dallas. They then have a Sunday match to end the season at LA, which is 2,600 miles from Guatamala if they fly direct. That's not only a ton of travel in 4 days, both matches will have CCL and SS implications. Pareja could choose to play all his staters in both matches knowing he has a bye week coming up. But even if he did, how much would his players have left in the tank after 2 high intensity matches in 4 days, coupled with 4,300 miles of travel; before they even have to go back to Dallas to recover. Dallas also plays at the hottest team in the league hosting Seattle next week. That's a tough matchup all in itself and a 4,000 mile round trip. (Not sure how to cross out text) Considering all these factors, I'm now leaning towards COL winning the West and the SS.

Good stuff.

One small correction. Dallas does not have a bye week after the LA game. The first round of the playoffs are mid-week, and then the first second round games are the following weekend. Might not matter much to him since they will get a full week off and play a team on short rest, but worth noting.

 

[adam]

Good stuff.

One small correction. Dallas does not have a bye week after the LA game. The first round of the playoffs are mid-week, and then the first second round games are the following weekend. Might not matter much to him since they will get a full week off and play a team on short rest, but worth noting.

Good catch

 

[canchon]

In a virtual tie in Group H in the CCL with Suchitepequez (don't ask me to pronounce that)

Sew-Chee-Teh-Peck-Ez

Actually, FCD is lucky that the game in Guatemala is at Mateo Flores. Suchitepequez is a team from Mazatenango, a city about 3.5-4 hours from Guatemala - and it is a bumpy ride over mostly single lane roads to get there. Most likely the game couldn't be held in Mazatenango because the stadium is too small. I wouldn't expect many fans at all to be in Mateo Flores for this game. The field will be bumpy but it's not like walking into a ravenous crowd like at Saprissa.

 

[adam]

Sew-Chee-Teh-Peck-Ez

Actually, FCD is lucky that the game in Guatemala is at Mateo Flores. Suchitepequez is a team from Mazatenango, a city about 3.5-4 hours from Guatemala - and it is a bumpy ride over mostly single lane roads to get there. Most likely the game couldn't be held in Mazatenango because the stadium is too small. I wouldn't expect many fans at all to be in Mateo Flores for this game. The field will be bumpy but it's not like walking into a ravenous crowd like at Saprissa.

Very cool insight. Thanks. I wonder why they chose to move it. Making FCD travel down that narrow road to the middle of the mountains. And in a small packed stadium because all the fans would be close by. Talk about a home field advantage. I'm assuming the only international airport is in Guatamala. Am I right?

 

[Paul]

Very cool insight. Thanks. I wonder why they chose to move it. Making FCD travel down that narrow road to the middle of the mountains. And in a small packed stadium because all the fans would be close by. Talk about a home field advantage. I'm assuming the only international airport is in Guatamala. Am I right?

View attachment 5947

CONCACAF has certain regulations governing stadiums that must be met for CCL and if a particular club's stadium does not satisfy those requirements the match must be moved. I'll try to find a link to add to this post.

ETA: Go to page 27. http://www.concacaf.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2015-16-SCCL-Regulations-ENG.pdf

 

[canchon]

Very cool insight. Thanks. I wonder why they chose to move it. Making FCD travel down that narrow road to the middle of the mountains. And in a small packed stadium because all the fans would be close by. Talk about a home field advantage. I'm assuming the only international airport is in Guatamala. Am I right?

I think they moved it because stadium capacity was too small for CONCACAF. I believe other teams such as Antigua are also playing in Mateo Flores even though it's not their home stadium.

I've been through Mazatenango. It would be a haul to get there and back. Guatemala City is the major international airport (only other one is in Flores and it is by the Tikal ruins). So you'd be looking at a long bus trip. In fact, I believe the USMNT went there for a qualifier in 2000 and the players still talk about it.

 

[joe]

(Not sure how to cross out text)

[ s ] without the spaces [ /s] like this

 

[adam]

[ s ] without the spaces [ /s] like this

Thanks. Now I'll look like a real pro editing!

 

[Fabio]

Now there are only 2 chance to go to CCL :
1) To win the MLS Cup.
2) To arrive to the 4th place in the general standing ( we must win against the Crew because even if the Galaxy wins vs Dallas, the NYCFC has more number of wins than Galaxy ) and to hope that Colorado, FC Dallas, Toronto, Montreal or NJRB (.... ) win the MLS Cup.

Given that Dallas and Colorado are 100% the first 2 teams of the Western Conference and that NJRB and I hope the NYCFC will have the first 2 teams of the Eastern Conference, we have still AT LEAST the 50% of chances to go in CCL the next year.

P.S. I hope that I am right, even if I have some doubt about the situation if Dallas should win the MLS Cup after that it have already won the US Open Cup. What should be the 5th team in CCL after Dallas , NJRB, Colorado and Toronto ( for Canada ) ? Will be even now the 4th team of the general standing ?

 

[EganSoccerWords]

You got it right.

CCL Spots go to MLS Cup Winner, Supporters Shield Winner, Other Non-Supporters Shield Conference Winner, US Open Cup Winner. If any of those titles are held by multiple teams, it would go to the team next in line in the Supporters Shield standings.

Dallas has the Open Cup
Dallas likely has the Supporters Shield. Colorado has a slim chance of winning but even if Dallas wins, Colorado would get the CCL spot because they are next in line.
RasenBallsport NJ likely has the Eastern Conference CCL spot.

So like you said, only winning the MLS Cup or us winning at the Crew and Dallas, Colorado, or RasenBallsport NJ wining the cup gets us the spot.

 

[Keith Putnam]

RasenBallsport NJ

I love this so much.

 

[Viewfrom226]

If you all forgive my laziness since I'm sure the answer to this is in this chain, but can someone confirm how CCL works now that there isn't a huge number of permutations?

I think Dallas (USOC), Toronto (Canadian cup), Red Bulls (East champ) and Colorado (clinched next best record) are in. Does that mean that, if one of those teams wins the MLS Cup, there is an open spot? And, if that is the case, and we win on Sunday, is that our spot because nobody but the Galaxy can catch our 54 points and we hold the Wins tiebreaker with them?