Wall Street City: Stock Trading & General Investing Thread

mgarbowski said:
My advisor and I have been discussing this for about 12 years. Apart from a small number of special debt instruments he found in odd corners here and there, we have not bought any long or even medium term debt since I started working with him. It is changing, and I'm still wary of long term debt, but 1-2 years seems reasonable to start dipping in.
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I'm not too intrigued by longer dated maturities either due to the inversion and the fact that the S&P will still crush these rates over the next ten years with minimal risk.
Suddenly, even Muni's are sexy!

It's weird. I've never even given bonds a second thought before this year. I don't even know where to buy them, other than treasuries.
 
That's an interesting idea. I don't think it is time to buy bonds that are longer term, but it's a good return for the shorter term.

If interest rates keep going up, which it seems they will, then the purchase price of an already issued bond will go down, and this effect will be bigger the farther away the maturity date is. So, it may be a bit early to buy bonds with a maturity date beyond where you need to redeem them.
 
Also I took some of my cash reserve and built a ladder at Treasury Direct of 13-week t-bills in which the money just keeps recycling so as one bill matures I buy a new one at the same time. I started it 2-3 months ago and the rates keep going up. . The last auction sold the bills at about 3.3%.

For more info search "t-bill ladder treasury direct"
 
I'm just happy that my floating rate Israeli bonds are now paying off well compared to when I invested in them a few years ago.

6-month LIBOR went up HUGE!
 
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mgarbowski said:
Also I took some of my cash reserve and built a ladder at Treasury Direct of 13-week t-bills in which the money just keeps recycling so as one bill matures I buy a new one at the same time. I started it 2-3 months ago and the rates keep going up. . The last auction sold the bills at about 3.3%.

For more info search "t-bill ladder treasury direct"
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Do you follow Lily on Twitter, mgarbowski ? She laid out a similar strategy a few days ago. Worthwhile account if you're into trading. (I'm a political economy guy, most of it is over my head. LOL) https://twitter.com/nope_its_lily
 
KevinJRogers said:
Do you follow Lily on Twitter, mgarbowski ? She laid out a similar strategy a few days ago. Worthwhile account if you're into trading. (I'm a political economy guy, most of it is over my head. LOL) https://twitter.com/nope_its_lily
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No, never heard of her. I learned about interest rate ladders long enough ago to have no idea or memory of where I learned it.
 
CD rates are damn good right now. I like flexibility, so I just bought a bunch of no-penalty CD's at Ally at 4.75%
 
I'm in the fools category of investors. So don't trust me. But I put money into this company pretty early. They are doing another funding round now.

Aptera Motors

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LionNYC said:
Hope people bought the fucking dip
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I'm happy enough if people manage not to sell on the dip.

My advisor regularly shows me a number of charts. My 2 favorites are:
  • A chart that shows the annual S&P return each year plotted against the largest intra-year loss. In 1987 the market was down 34% at one point and ended up 2%. 2020 also had a 34% drop and finished up 16%. Those are extreme - big intra-year drops usually end up with year end losses. But it's never been as bad as it seems at its worst.
  • A chart showing percentage returns for each decade compared to the same growth if you just missed the 10 highest gain days in each decade. The most recent version I could locate quickly is from 2018. The total percentage gain from 1930 to 2018 was 13363%. The return if you missed the 10 biggest 1-day gains in each decade was just 67%. Crazy.
Of course, you could not be unlucky enough to miss just those 10 days every decade any more than you could be skilled or lucky enough to miss the 10 biggest drops. But the idea is the risk of missing those big gain days is not worth trying to time anything.

I'm not an advisor and not your advisor and not giving advice and the past is not the present and maybe someday we have a bear market that never recovers for decades. But it has never happened.
 
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